2. Except there are like a bunch of OEMS about to jump on WIndows 10.
OEMs have always been "about to jump on [Windows Phone]". Acer, HTC, and Samsung half-heartedly supported Windows Phone 7/8. At various points Microsoft made a big deal about getting new partners on board. E.g. http://winsupersite.com/windows-phone/microsoft-announces-9-new-windows-phone-hardware-partners-new-os-features
As long as OEMs don't push their Windows Phone devices as hard as their Android devices, it's not going to matter. When a company releases a Windows Phone variant of their Android flagship and they don't have a big marketing push, the carriers don't push Windows Phone, ... you basically have a phone made for a couple of Windows Phone enthusiasts. It's never going to compete with the Android flagship.