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Wkd BO 03•03-05•17 - Peeps Get Out to see R-rated Logan & Xavier Shack up, kid in tow

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K

kswiston

Member
Deadline is predicting $45-50M for Kong domestic and $125-135M worldwide this weekend.

They mention that some studio analysts think that Logan could come in first if Kong is on the low side of that range. Second place seems more likely to me though.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Logan made $5.6M on wednesday, which is about what I figured. It will finish its first week at $115M.

Boxoffice.com is predicting $43.5M for Kong, $40M for Logan, and $21.5M for Get Out this weekend.

John Wick 2 failed to pass Chinese censorship, so no gross boost from China.

A Dog's Purpose is going to beat Logan this weekend in China. It's currently past $30M there and is getting great word of mouth. China will no doubt be the only territory in the world where A Dog's Purpose > Rogue One.
 
L

Lima

Member
Huh typing in China loved dogs to google reveals some interesting information. Apparently they are becoming major dog lovers and the opposition to eating dog meat is increasing. No wonder A Dog's Purpose is doing great then. Good for them.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Lima said:
Huh typing in China loved dogs to google reveals some interesting information. Apparently they are becoming major dog lovers and the opposition to eating dog meat is increasing. No wonder A Dog's Purpose is doing great then. Good for them.
Click to expand...

Increase in wealth usually leads to more pet owners and animal empathy.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
kswiston said:
Logan made $5.6M on wednesday, which is about what I figured. It will finish its first week at $115M.

Boxoffice.com is predicting $43.5M for Kong, $40M for Logan, and $21.5M for Get Out this weekend.

John Wick 2 failed to pass Chinese censorship, so no gross boost from China.

A Dog's Purpose is going to beat Logan this weekend in China. It's currently past $30M there and is getting great word of mouth. China will no doubt be the only territory in the world where A Dog's Purpose > Rogue One.
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Awesome.

Wait...

China will no doubt be the only territory in the world where A Dog's Purpose > Rogue One.
Click to expand...

eb8548a3b0bff2f54e2fccce4bfc0079_-iimgurcom-yypszhwgif-black-guy-clapping-wtf-gif_637-356.gif
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Tagyhag said:
It's interesting how these early months used to be for basically mediocre films, and now more and more huge blockbusters are taking advantage of the open space.
Click to expand...

Just like with video games. These companies finally realize that jamming all the good stuff into a 4 months span didn't make sense.
 
L

Lima

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Just like with video games. These companies finally realize that jamming all the good stuff into a 4 months span didn't make sense.
Click to expand...

Now video game publishers need to realize that the summer months are also a good time to release games and hopefully spread them out all year.
 
K

kswiston

Member
numble said:
I don't see the math behind this. A Dog's Purpose is at ~253 million RMB after 8 days. Rogue One was ~338 million RMB after 8 days.
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Rogue One was at 260M RMB after its first weekend. A Dog's Purpose was at 120M RMB.

A Dog's Purpose went from 24M RMB last Friday to 30M RMB this Friday. Rogue One dropped 75% in its second Friday.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Prompto said:
That's higher than expected for Kong and low for Logan right?
Click to expand...

It would be nice if Logan went up a million or two. It's still way too early for those estimates to be super accurate, but they do suggest that we shouldn't expect Logan to escape the typical superhero second weekend drop.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Kong: Skull Island - $20.2M
2) Logan - $10.4M (-69%, 56% wo Thurs previews) - $125M total
3) Get Out - $6.0M (-25%) - $96M total
4) The Shack - $2.7M (-52%) - $25M total
5) The Lego Batman Movie - $1.7M (-31%) - $153M total
6) Before I Fall - $930k (-44%) - $7M total
7) Hidden Figures - $710k (-30%) - $161M
8) John Wick 2 - $695k (-45%) - $85M
9) Fifty Shades Darker - $535k (-55%) - $112M
10) La La Land - $475k (-43%) - $147M
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
So that R-rating and maybe that not-too-friendly tone really did have an effect on Logan then?

56% without the Thursday previews isn't bad really. But it does seem a little steeper than previously thought.
 
G

Gentleman Jack

Member
Bunch of people leaving Get Out at the theater last night with the most amazing looks in their eyes, like their lives had just changed. The power of cinema.
 
F

FTF

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
So that R-rating and maybe that not-too-friendly tone really did have an effect on Logan then?

56% without the Thursday previews isn't bad really. But it does seem a little steeper than previously thought.
Click to expand...

X-Men movies always have big drops though. Logan better than usual 2nd weekend series drop at least.
 
S

Sibersk Esto

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
So that R-rating and maybe that not-too-friendly tone really did have an effect on Logan then?

56% without the Thursday previews isn't bad really. But it does seem a little steeper than previously thought.
Click to expand...

Maybe it's too early to tell but yeah, those factors + Kong may have cut into its legs.

EDIT: this drop actually is pretty consistent with the X films.

a8d8ec60ea7b9a6f42fe47383919b7d7.jpg
 
S

Slayven

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
So that R-rating and maybe that not-too-friendly tone really did have an effect on Logan then?

56% without the Thursday previews isn't bad really. But it does seem a little steeper than previously thought.
Click to expand...

I don't see R movies anymore, after paying money to see Bones. Therapy has helped me a lot
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
$185 million reported budget for Kong. Not a great start.

It will most likely do worse than Star Trek Beyond (a movie with the same budget) in the states. Star Trek did $151 million domestic.
 
M

MrPink93485

Member
Schlorgan said:
$185 million reported budget for Kong. Not a great start.

It will most likely do worse than Star Trek Beyond (a movie with the same budget) in the states. Star Trek did $151 million domestic.
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Star Trek was closer to 159 mil. Kong won't reach that most likely but it'll make considerably more WW. Star Trek did miserably overseas
 
K

kswiston

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
So that R-rating and maybe that not-too-friendly tone really did have an effect on Logan then?
Click to expand...

Second Friday drops for X-Men films

X3 The Last Stand - 77.1%
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 75.8%
X-Men Apocalypse - 75.0%
Days of Future Past - 73.5%
The Wolverine - 68.6%
Logan - 68.6%
Deadpool - 65.7%
X-Men - 65.6%
X-Men First Class - 64.8%
X2 X-Men United - 60.4%


Second Friday drops without Thursday/Midnight previews

X3 The Last Stand - 73.7%
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 71.7%
Days of Future Past - 65.6%
X-Men Apocalypse - 63.6%
The Wolverine - 61.1%
X-Men First Class - 58.2%
Logan - 55.8%
Deadpool - 53.2%

I don't know what the midnight totals were for X1 and X2. They were released before midnight shows really caught on. Either way, Logan did fairly well given the franchise norms.
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
Slayven said:
I would say the opposite. As meandering as DC is, they came out of no where and snatched the number 2 spot.
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You think so? I mean granted, they DO have a lot of money coming in and a lot of brand recognition where Fox is mainly just X-Men and spin-offs, but when I see what they're doing with their brands, to the extent of (accidentally) saving R-rated movies, it just feels like they're making an impact, where DC is just kinda struggling to figure out what they want to be.
 
K

kswiston

Member
A Dog's Purpose vs Rogue One in China after 9 days


A Dog's Purpose
61.5M RMB Second Saturday (43M first Sat)
291M RMB total


Rogue One
24.6M RMB Second Saturday (82M first Sat)
344M RMB total

Streams will probably cross on Tuesday
 
S

Slayven

Member
A Link to the Past said:
You think so? I mean granted, they DO have a lot of money coming in and a lot of brand recognition where Fox is mainly just X-Men and spin-offs, but when I see what they're doing with their brands, to the extent of (accidentally) saving R-rated movies, it just feels like they're making an impact, where DC is just kinda struggling to figure out what they want to be.
Click to expand...
Did R movies need saving? People are hooked on the soap opera of DC tomfoolery. I honestly think the thought of rubbernecking a trainwreck is going to give the next DC films a boost. Fox been kinda of limping along the last 20 years. not counting Logan or Deadpool the entire x-men franchise has only done 4.5 billion.

BronsonLee said:
That seems...Decent for Kong?
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Shut up old man
 
R

Razgriz-Specter

Member
A Link to the Past said:
You think so? I mean granted, they DO have a lot of money coming in and a lot of brand recognition where Fox is mainly just X-Men and spin-offs, but when I see what they're doing with their brands, to the extent of (accidentally) saving R-rated movies, it just feels like they're making an impact, where DC is just kinda struggling to figure out what they want to be.
Click to expand...

Yeah the main X-Men movie doing 250 million less than the freaking Suicide Squad is a definite impact.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Razgriz-Specter said:
Yeah the main X-Men movie doing 250 million less than the freaking Suicide Squad is a definite impact.
Click to expand...

I expect the next X-film to have a badly shoehorned in soundtrack. Wolfsbane transforming to "Superfreak" or Magik casting spells to "Black Magic Woman" or Cannoball slaming into stuff to "Bombs over Baghad"


I joke but now i want these to be real
 
K

kswiston

Member
Slayven said:
Did R movies need saving? People are hooked on the soap opera of DC tomfoolery. I honestly think the thought of rubbernecking a trainwreck is going to give the next DC films a boost. Fox been kinda of limping along the last 20 years. not counting Logan or Deadpool the entire x-men franchise has only done 4.5 billion.
Click to expand...

Even including Deadpool, the X-Men franchise didn't pass $4.5B until last weekend.

EDIT: If you take out the R-rated films, the 8 PG-13 X-Men films made less than the last 4 MCU films.
 
S

Smokey_Run

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
I'm wondering Apocalypse's middling BO was superhero fatigue or bad WoM. A lot of fans disliked the movie (myself included) but non-comic readers seemed to like it fine.
Click to expand...

When you're over confident in the reviews and let them drop 2-3 weeks before release and get trashed, it's not hard to see why the movie failed.
 
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