broncobuster
Banned
Sources tell me Warners is waiting for leather jacket, leg belts, and circle shades to come back in before launching a Superboy movie. That brief romper revival was a sign to move forward.
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Wkd BO 0526-2817 - Rock in bay can't stop Pirates or Guardians, Alien sinks tho
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Sources tell me Warners is waiting for leather jacket, leg belts, and circle shades to come back in before launching a Superboy movie. That brief romper revival was a sign to move forward.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
As Shaq anxiously awaits for them to green light Reign of the Supermen just so he can get work again.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
https://twitter.com/michaelbay/status/870156696731168768
Well there it is. Also, which of the lunatics asking for it to be 3+ hours is duckroll?
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
I'm gonna predict 90 million for WW's opening but I hope it makes 100+.
LordOfLore
Banned
Ha, saw duckroll retweeting it and knew someone must've posted it here.
Still going for billion WW. Got Bruce's ludicrous diamonds speech prepared for the inevitable failure.
600m domestic then?
Wow now I'm not seeing it. Give me 3 hours of Bay or give me nothing.
666 domestic. Fox News has material for months.
AdventureRacing
Member
Here in Australia WW doesn't seem to be getting many screens (judging from my local area anyway). Less than the likes of doctor strange which didn't exactly make a huge amount here. Also they aren't holding any ladies nights for it they seem to be waiting for rough night instead. Overall Baywatch has a similar amount of screens which is surprising.
Unless this has a large per screen average i can't see it pulling big numbers here.
Unless this has a large per screen average i can't see it pulling big numbers here.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
I am tonight.
illmatic22
Banned
Gonna wait till Tuesday so I can see it with my Momma.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Same. Excise a few sequences (penis caught in the chair, the whole "grab the balls" segment) and a few minor script tweaks, and it would have been a better film and better received. I thought it was fun despite the problems.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
What CBM had the biggest split for women? Is it Suicide Squad right now with 54/46 m/w?
Spider-Man and The Incredibles had an even split.
Does Box Office Mojo have this stat as well?
Wonder Woman has zero shot at $250M if its opening is anywhere near $65M.
Comic films are heavily frontloaded.
Here's a list of all post-2000 superhero films meeting two criteria: A) they were based on a pre-existing comicbook, and B) they opened to at least $10M domestic
Code:
RANK TITLE DOM TOTAL DOM OW RELEASE DATE OW MULT
1 Batman Begins* $206,852,432 $48,745,440 6/15/2005 4.24x
2 Spider-Man 2* $373,585,825 $88,156,227 6/30/2004 4.24x
3 The Amazing Spider-Man** $262,030,663 $62,004,688 7/3/2012 4.23x
4 Superman Returns* $200,081,192 $52,535,096 6/28/2006 3.81x
5 Guardians of the Galaxy $333,176,600 $94,320,883 8/1/2014 3.53x
6 Spider-Man $403,706,375 $114,844,116 5/3/2002 3.52x
7 The Dark Knight $534,858,444 $158,411,483 7/18/2008 3.38x
8 Blade: Trinity* $52,411,906 $16,061,271 12/8/2004 3.26x
9 Iron Man $318,412,101 $98,618,668 5/2/2008 3.23x
10 Ant-Man $180,202,163 $57,225,526 7/17/2015 3.15x
11 Marvel's The Avengers $623,357,910 $207,438,708 5/4/2012 3.01x
12 The Green Hornet $98,780,042 $33,526,876 1/14/2011 2.95x
13 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) $191,204,754 $65,575,105 8/8/2014 2.92x
14 X-Men $157,299,717 $54,471,475 7/14/2000 2.89x
15 The Dark Knight Rises $448,139,099 $160,887,295 7/20/2012 2.79x
16 Fantastic Four (2005) $154,696,080 $56,061,504 7/8/2005 2.76x
17 Thor $181,030,624 $65,723,338 5/6/2011 2.75x
18 Deadpool $363,070,709 $132,434,639 2/12/2016 2.74x
19 Doctor Strange $232,641,920 $85,058,311 11/4/2016 2.74x
20 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $259,766,572 $95,023,721 4/4/2014 2.73x
21 Captain America: The First Avenger $176,654,505 $65,058,524 7/22/2011 2.72x
22 X-Men: First Class $146,408,305 $55,101,604 6/3/2011 2.66x
23 X-Men: Days of Future Past $233,921,534 $90,823,660 5/23/2014 2.58x
24 Hellboy $59,623,958 $23,172,440 4/2/2004 2.57x
25 Logan $226,122,357 $88,411,916 3/3/2017 2.56x
26 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2^ $375,000,000 $146,510,104 5/5/2017 2.56x
27 Ghost Rider $115,802,596 $45,388,836 2/16/2007 2.55x
28 Daredevil $102,543,518 $40,310,419 2/14/2003 2.54x
29 Blade II $82,348,319 $32,528,016 3/22/2002 2.53x
30 X2: X-Men United $214,949,694 $85,558,731 5/2/2003 2.51x
31 The Wolverine $132,556,852 $53,113,752 7/26/2013 2.50x
32 Man of Steel $291,045,518 $116,619,362 6/14/2013 2.50x
33 The Punisher $33,810,189 $13,834,527 4/16/2004 2.44x
34 Iron Man 2 $312,433,331 $128,122,480 5/7/2010 2.44x
35 The Incredible Hulk $134,806,913 $55,414,050 6/13/2008 2.43x
36 Suicide Squad $325,100,054 $133,682,248 8/5/2016 2.43x
37 Kick-Ass $48,071,303 $19,828,687 4/16/2010 2.42x
38 Thor: The Dark World $206,362,140 $85,737,841 11/8/2013 2.41x
39 Catwoman $40,202,379 $16,728,411 7/23/2004 2.40x
40 Avengers: Age of Ultron $459,005,868 $191,271,109 5/1/2015 2.40x
41 X-Men: Apocalypse $155,442,489 $65,769,562 5/27/2016 2.36x
42 Iron Man 3 $409,013,994 $174,144,585 5/3/2013 2.35x
43 Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance $51,774,002 $22,115,334 2/17/2012 2.34x
44 TMNT: Out of the Shadows $82,051,601 $35,316,382 6/3/2016 2.32x
45 X-Men: The Last Stand $234,362,462 $102,750,665 5/26/2006 2.28x
46 Captain America: Civil War $408,084,349 $179,139,142 5/6/2016 2.28x
47 Fantastic Four: Rise of the SS $131,921,738 $58,051,684 6/15/2007 2.27x
48 Spider-Man 3 $336,530,303 $151,116,516 5/4/2007 2.23x
49 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $202,853,933 $91,608,337 5/2/2014 2.21x
50 Hellboy II: The Golden Army $75,986,503 $34,539,115 7/11/2008 2.20x
51 Green Lantern $116,601,172 $53,174,303 6/17/2011 2.19x
52 Fantastic Four $56,117,548 $25,685,737 8/7/2015 2.18x
53 Kick-Ass 2 $28,795,985 $13,332,955 8/16/2013 2.16x
54 Hulk $132,177,234 $62,128,420 6/20/2003 2.13x
55 Power Rangers (2017) $85,334,791 $40,300,288 3/24/2017 2.12x
56 X-Men Origins: Wolverine $179,883,157 $85,058,003 5/1/2009 2.11x
57 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $330,360,194 $166,007,347 3/25/2016 1.99x
58 Watchmen $107,509,799 $55,214,334 3/6/2009 1.95x
59 Elektra $24,409,722 $12,804,793 1/14/2005 1.91x
_____________________________________________________
AVERAGE (for 3-day openings) 2.55x
NOTES:
* Opened on a Wednesday
** Opened on a Tuesday
^ Estimated domestic totalOnly five films out of over 50 had a 3x Opening weekend multiplier off of a Friday opening.
If you Adjust Guardians of the Galaxy's opening to include its first 5/6 days (making it more directly comparable to #1-4 on the list which opened in the middle of the week), it actually has the best legs of any superhero film in the past 17 years. Fri-Tues OW multiplier for GotG1 > Wed-Sun OW multiplier for Batman Begins.
Wonder Woman with a $65M opening and the same legs at GotG1, still only hits just shy of $230M.
Now keep in mind that the only significant competition that GotG1 faced in its first 6 weeks of release was TMNT 2014 in weekend #2. The next biggest film it faced was Let's Be Cops, which opened to less than $18M.
There's at least one film with the potential to open over $40M in each of the 7 weekends following WW's release (The Mummy's weekend is probably the most likely to miss that mark). That and no summer weekdays during the start of its run is really going to limit the upper end of Wonder Woman's legs.
Even $85M would be bordering on a stretch for $250M+ (that would require a 2.95x OW multiplier).
EDIT:
TL;DR version: A 3x opening weekend multiplier for a comic film requires most of the following: A) A monster opening weekend, B) light competition in subsequent weeks, and C) good-great WOM. Wonder Woman would only have 1 of those if it opens with $85M or less.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Wonder Woman made $6.3M through Wednsday.
http://deadline.com/2017/06/wonder-woman-opening-box-office-results-international-1202105707/
http://deadline.com/2017/06/wonder-woman-opening-box-office-results-international-1202105707/
That sounds good. Is it good?
Thanks for the knowledge. Personally, I think the direct competition looks pretty light for the rest of the month, Mummy might open to 40m? Maybe 50? And Transformers is fading in the US market so I don't think it's going to suck all the life out of the box office. Cars 3 and DM3 will be big of course but I don't know if they're fighting for the same dollars as Wonder Woman.
So I think a 3x multiplier is fairly reasonable and off an 85m opening that gets it to just over 250m. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see a 100m opening coming, theaters around me still have a lot of seats available. This really hinges on women. Will they come out and watch this movie like they came out for Pitch Perfect 2?
LordOfLore
Banned
BronsonLee
Member
Gentleman Jack
Member
Man that Deadpool OW number still blows my mind.
Now we need to know how long it is.
It doesn't necessarily matter if June/July has a lot of spot-on, direct competition. What major films looked to be direct competition to Logan in March? Logan still ended up with a bit over 2.5x OW multiplier.
Big films are all fighting for a finite number of screens, and all of those films are going to open in close to or over 4k venues. The Mummy, Cars, and Transformers 5 are all scheduled for IMAX releases. If DM3 misses the IMAX window, it will no doubt soak up the other PLF screens.
BronsonLee
Member
The combo of it actually being a romantic comedy + Valentine's Day + the best marketing campaign in a long time = massive numbers. If someone says they called that, they're so full of shit their eyes are brown
I don't think Deadpool 2 will do as well now tbh
I caaaaaaaaan't
meeting the bros at the bar at 8 =/
Possibly, but think about how much more recognizable Deadpool is now thanks to that first movie. Plus it was unanimously loved. I think the sequel could be massive, especially since it's going to have a bigger budget (production and advertising) this time.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Bros before Gadots. smh
This is the current around Deadpool 2:
• Untitled Han Solo Star Wars Anthology Film (BV) - 5/25
• Deadpool 2 (Fox) - 6/1
• Ocean's 8 (WB) - 6/8
• Transformers 6 (Par.) - 6/8
• The Incredibles 2 (BV) - 6/15
• Jurassic World Sequel (Uni.) - 6/22
Things can certainly change, but that's an insane schedule and I think Deadpool 2 would have the most to lose.
It will have a bigger opening.
Looking at that chart I posted in more detail, there have been 52 films released since 2000 that are based on Marvel and DC superhero properties. The average opening weekend among them is $84.8M and the average domestic total is $227M. And that's with early 2000s jank like Elektra bringing down the average.
If you want more recent averages, this is how things look:
May 2008 (Iron Man 1) to present: 34 films
Average Opening weekend: $98.8M
Average Domestic Total: $259M
May 2012 (Avengers) to present: 22 films
Average Opening weekend: $109.4M
Average Domestic Total: $284M
The median is a bit lower, since the Avengers skews things. However, Winter Soldier is now in the bottom half of post-Avengers releases. $65M OW for a superhero film isn't really much of a success in my opinion.
If you want more recent averages, this is how things look:
May 2008 (Iron Man 1) to present: 34 films
Average Opening weekend: $98.8M
Average Domestic Total: $259M
May 2012 (Avengers) to present: 22 films
Average Opening weekend: $109.4M
Average Domestic Total: $284M
The median is a bit lower, since the Avengers skews things. However, Winter Soldier is now in the bottom half of post-Avengers releases. $65M OW for a superhero film isn't really much of a success in my opinion.
I should probably point out that I don't expect a $65M opening for Wonder Woman. Presales suggest at least something in like with Doctor Strange and Logan. Independent trackers are saying the same thing ($80-100M). WB is trying to undershoot actual expectations with that $65-85M statement on purpose.
Shut up old man, Celtics will sweep
BronsonLee
Member
Make a bet ya goddamn goddamn
I knew we'd agree on something eventually!
THEY AREN'T EVEN IN IT
Avatar bet. I say it opens above the first film.
Work out the details closer to release.
Edit: Avatar bet should last for the remainder of the 2018 summer film season.
First and final offer. You will be saddled with a "Tron sucks" avatar.
Captain Underpants has an estimated budget of $38M. Not only is that the cheapest CG animated film that Dreamworks has ever released, it's also the first time one of their films has been cheaper than $125M since Over the Hedge ($80M) in 2006.
The only other film that they have ever had with a budget under $40M was Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (and that barely counts).
No wonder Captain Underpants has received scant marketing.
This also concludes Dreamworks Animation's Fox Distribution deal. In March 2019, HTTYD 3 will begin their new animation phase as a subsidiary of Universal.
The only other film that they have ever had with a budget under $40M was Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit (and that barely counts).
No wonder Captain Underpants has received scant marketing.
This also concludes Dreamworks Animation's Fox Distribution deal. In March 2019, HTTYD 3 will begin their new animation phase as a subsidiary of Universal.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
Something tells me they were hesitant to break the bank on something titled "Captain Underpants"
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I am feeling Captain Underpants is going to do better than projections. It's at 11% on movietickets and it is the first animated film since Boss Baby.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Theater counts for the weekend: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2017&wk=22&p=.htm
Alien: Covenant loses 1,112 theaters, so the drop this weekend will likely be 65% or more.
Alien: Covenant loses 1,112 theaters, so the drop this weekend will likely be 65% or more.
I am a comic nerd, what do i know about sports?
Is that a lot?
It's not record breaking or anything, but it is the same amount that King Arthur lost in Weekend #3. Ideally, your big blockbuster shouldn't be losing as many venues as Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4.
It may not have the legs of the first film but I wouldn't be surprised to see it have a bigger OW.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
With east coast previews getting out, I'll post my predictions for the weekend. Not a detailed analysis, thanks to a mad dash to get all my school work done in time.
Code:
[U]Wonder Woman[/U]
Pre $12.5M
Fri $40.5M/$28.0M
Sat $32.7M -19.26%/+16.79%
Sun $24.1M -26.30%
OW $97.3M
2nd $41.1M -57.76%
3rd $20.7M -49.64%
4th $13.1M -36.71%
DOM $290M
INT $390M
WW $680M- Overall, it's going to be a battle of positive reviews and strong marketing vs. the weak reception of the last few DCEU films. I anticipate Wonder Woman to do extremely well, but do not expect a massive breakout.
- A question mark going into the weekend will be how Game 1 of the NBA finals will impact previews tonight. It's widely expected for this to attract a higher percentage of female audiences than other comic book films, so the effect may not be too severe.
- I'm giving Wonder Woman pretty good legs (nearly a 3.0 multiplier) for a comic-book film and that's based on the expectation of audiences in general liking it as much as critics have.
Code:
[U]The Leftovers[/U]
2. Captain Underpants $37.5M
3. Pirates 5 $22.1M
4. Guardians of the Galaxy $8.5M
5. Baywatch $7.2M
6. Alien: Covenant $3.4M
7. Everything, Everything $3.1M
8. Diary of a Wimpy Kid $1.9M
9. Snatched $1.7M
10. King Arthur $1.2M