lightskintwin
Banned
Comes out in 2 weeks. I can't wait to hear the excuses when it underperforms.
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Wkd BO 0526-2817 - Rock in bay can't stop Pirates or Guardians, Alien sinks tho
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Comes out in 2 weeks. I can't wait to hear the excuses when it underperforms.
Oh I looked up the trailer and yeah saw this with a movie months ago... and completely forgot about it
lightskintwin
Banned
Kswiston, what's the over/under that this film opens bigger domestically than Rough Night a month later?
hodayathink
Member
Generally speaking, I'm basing it on the only other time they've had to negotiate a salary for one of their primary players to be one of the leads in a movie that wasn't under contract, which is Robert Downey Jr. in Civil War (which, IIRC, that total ended up being around $50 million). At lets remember that at the time of Civil War, RDJ's most recent non-Marvel movie was "The Judge", which didn't light up the box office very much either, even given it's modest budget. As a matter of fact, The Judge is actually the only non-Marvel movie he's starred in in the past 5 years, so it's not like he has a ton of non-Marvel leverage, either (all he can point to is Sherlock Holmes, where the second decreased from the first domestically and the third movie has been on hold for years). What I'm saying is that if they wanted to make a Widow movie (and I actually agree with you that they don't), they'd need her as much as she would need them, and they wouldn't be able to lowball her (which is part of the reason they aren't interested in making it in the first place).
I don't know. That film probably has the higher floor though, since it no doubt has a bigger built in audience.
lightskintwin
Banned
Robert Downey Jr. benefited from being FIRST as well as an integral part to Marvel's Cinematic Universe.
I actually think this one looks better.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
whoops. I keep thinking people would find WW more interesting, but it's just DOM totals.
Sigh, guess that means the movie won't bomb enough for my justifiable hatred of its existence.
Gonna find a cloud to scream at.
Also, with Wonder Woman seemingly reaching for a 100m opening weekend, I'm going to guess something like 300-300 (DOM-FOR) on it's total run, depending on overseas reception. 700m or more worldwide kinda seems like pushing it to me (but would be doable if word of mouth is consistent with a 100m OW), but then Suicide Squad made the same amount for no good reason (no sir, I do not like it). So, who wants to bet on the possibility of it passing BvS? it's only 873m to reach.
It would have to take up some serious space from other movies, but Pirates isn't doing so hot, with it's OW being a 30% lower than Stranger Tides, so using that percentage as a constant would give 700m total, 300 less than its predecessor. Man, people really did learn that "if it stinks, don't see it" lesson from last year, huh?
Speaking of which, studios did not complain about critics hating that one, but oh no if they don't like their "dick jokes: the movie" aka Baywatch. :')
"but it score well with our idiot test screenings!" Yeah... you'd think media executives would know basic sampling and statistics by now. Because these same arguments keep coming back, even when everyone already knows they're fucking bullshit.
Black Widow is also one of the easier characters to swap out of the Avengers lineup. Iron Man is in the top 5 global superheroes now. Black Widow is not.
So that backs up what Deadline had 3 hours ago. Hopefully it stays there or goes up.
Lord Frieza
Member
If Wonder Woman manages to break 100 mil, I see 700 as very possible. I doubt it will hit Suicide Squad numbers, but I can see it being close. That's probably the ceiling. Unless it has the kind of legs SS managed to have. I mean, hell, if SS had managed to get a China release, it could've grossed a billion. I just can't see WW hitting BvS though
Haha, well I guess no one can call me biased. I love a lot of DC characters but I'm a Marvel guy since I saw Spidey on Fox Kids in 1994.
I think Marvel has great female characters but I think most of them are either at Fox, Sony or just wouldn't work as a lead in a movie.
Suicide Squad probably wouldn't have done better than $800-850M with a China release. Age of Ultron is the highest grossing comic film ever in China, and even that gross doesn't get Suicide Squad past $1B. BvS made about $95M in China.
Suicide Squad legs also weren't all that great. That would be a sub $250M domestic take on a $100M opening weekend. Not terrible =/= great.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't know, it seemed to have really good legs to me, it just seemed to go and go, but I don't know the statistics of stuff like that. Didn't realize the bar was that low for China, though
Right, but I also pointed out that they had specific "gimmicks" that can help market a movie. A good amount of Marvel's female characters that could do that are over at Sony and Fox.
She-Hulk comes to mind but I think she would work as a more grounded Netflix show, personally.
Exactly, they could have and still could do a Black Widow movie. I want it really badly. And I hope Wonder Woman's success pushes them to.
But I think the fact that you mentioned Peggy Carter as an example kind of helps my original argument. Agent Carter was fantastic and should have received a season 3 but if we're being honest with ourselves, does it make sense from an MCU and financial point of view to do a movie?
People need to stop thinking like this after Guardians. Sure Fox and Sony has the named characters, but Marvel have proven themselves they can make anythign pop. And Marvel's character bench is pretty much infinite
Suicide Squad had a terrible second weekend drop, a normal third weekend drop, and then decent (but not extraordinary) legs going forward from that point. It ended up with a OW multiplier that was about average for the genre.
August is a dead month though, so it was #1/2 for its first 5 weeks. Maybe that is what you remember. Also worth remembering that Guardians of the Galaxy scored the best legs of any Marvel/DC superhero film since the 90s in the same weekend slot two years prior. No competition helps in that regard.
Lord Frieza
Member
It's hilarious to watch that DC Media title card and see Cyborg being included with the Big 6.
Goddamn shame, a Titans movie could be fire. Because no one has really did a teen superhero movie yet. First Class was close
I just remembered we are getting Shuri next year, we will be blessed
You mean it's a bad movie? :/
If the Cyborg movie actually happen then there's no way it doesn't just become a glorified Titans movie.
Lord Frieza
Member
Oh yeah, I forgot about that lol. I'll never get used to Cyborg being there.
I thought last word was Flash guest staring and it becoming a buddy film?
That might have been 20 flash directors ago
They keep giving all of the Titans villains away.
You know that you are going to get stuck with Trigon if they ever get around to a Titans movie. Deathstroke is too high profile for them now.
I think that was the latest plot tossed around for The Flash movie; that Cyborg would play a major role in it.
But they can't keep a director to save their life so who knows what the current plan is.
Nah
I feel like i have a shot at being the director, i should put in an application
Lord Frieza
Member
Cyborg disappears in the first 10 minutes, Flash has to find him and is focus for rest of the movie. Cyborg dies in last 5 minutes. Flash goes back in time solely to not save him again
Saucycarpdog
Member
Brother Blood is a pretty good one. But that depends entirely on how they choose to adapt him.
Cyborg The Quest for BET
They have to do the vampire Brother Blood
But the Guardians were already incredibly interesting and unique characters with a gimmick that made them different from the rest of the MCU without any changes needing to be made. I'm not sure that's the best example.
I'd love to be proven wrong, I'm just waiting for some examples. She-Hulk would be great but I personally would rather see a half-comedic Netflix show for her that focuses on the lawyer aspect of the character.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Funny thing about Rough Night, is they showed the red band trailer (F bombs, cocaine and all) at my showing of Wonder Woman. Normally I am cool with red band trailers, but seeing all the little girls there excited for the movie I did tell theater management that they may want to remove a red band trailer from the PG13 film for the next showing.
You I don't watch arrowNot the Arrow version?
You know i can name 10 female characters that are interesting, unique, and have a gimmick that makes them different from the rest of the MCU
Duh hell, is that normal?
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
"does it make financial sense"?
Considering Agent Carter was cancelled: no.
Also, a Black Widow solo movie? Good lord, no. At least Wonder Woman has the 'warrior' thing going for her, the fuck does Black Widow have? Being another Ultraviolet / GitS/ Aeon Flux? They've tried that try-hard edgy leather so many times already I honestly lost count, and the only one to ever do it right remains Trinity in the Matrix movies (played by Carrie Ann Moss). And maybe Catwoman in Batman Returns if you're weird.
Marvel can't just make random stuff work. Guardians has an interesting premise, an interesting cast, and honestly a bitchin' script, and a director that wants the damn job. THAT works. Another asshole in leather? Unless his name is Blade, ain't nobody got time for that. ( who owns the Blade rights at this point btw ? )
aside from that:
It's Doctor Strange where you start to feel the 'we need to make this happen' thing start to strain to a point where I'd be more content with that character not having been introduced than I am with where it is now. Either they need to start bodying people (helllooooo Infinity War) or they've got a crowd that's grown uncomfortably large.
Image if the mutant actually were part of the MCU, then this point would have occured a few movies ago already.
Also, I just realized there actually IS one viable female lead that Marvel has, legally and genetically distinct from mutants: Squirrel Girl. Deadpool style character, no Deadpool rights needed.
Considering Agent Carter was cancelled: no.
Also, a Black Widow solo movie? Good lord, no. At least Wonder Woman has the 'warrior' thing going for her, the fuck does Black Widow have? Being another Ultraviolet / GitS/ Aeon Flux? They've tried that try-hard edgy leather so many times already I honestly lost count, and the only one to ever do it right remains Trinity in the Matrix movies (played by Carrie Ann Moss). And maybe Catwoman in Batman Returns if you're weird.
Marvel can't just make random stuff work. Guardians has an interesting premise, an interesting cast, and honestly a bitchin' script, and a director that wants the damn job. THAT works. Another asshole in leather? Unless his name is Blade, ain't nobody got time for that. ( who owns the Blade rights at this point btw ? )
aside from that:
It's Doctor Strange where you start to feel the 'we need to make this happen' thing start to strain to a point where I'd be more content with that character not having been introduced than I am with where it is now. Either they need to start bodying people (helllooooo Infinity War) or they've got a crowd that's grown uncomfortably large.
Image if the mutant actually were part of the MCU, then this point would have occured a few movies ago already.
Also, I just realized there actually IS one viable female lead that Marvel has, legally and genetically distinct from mutants: Squirrel Girl. Deadpool style character, no Deadpool rights needed.
Obliterator
Member
Just got back from Wonder Woman. It was fucking incredible. Top 5 comic book film I've ever seen and my theatre was packed and with more women then I've ever seen at a comic book film.
Audience reception was ridiculous. We are talking the whole stereotype of the audience applauding their ass off happening.
No idea if what happened at mine is what happening nation wide but if so I expect big legs / box office from this as word gets out
Audience reception was ridiculous. We are talking the whole stereotype of the audience applauding their ass off happening.
No idea if what happened at mine is what happening nation wide but if so I expect big legs / box office from this as word gets out
PhoncipleBone
Banned
And all without naming any character more than 5 people on GAF have heard of.
No, it isn't. They showed a few horror film trailers first, but they were still green band. But once the F bombs started dropping in the Rough Night trailer I was looking around awkwardly at some of the families. When I got up to use the restroom partway through a manager was in the hall and let them know they might want to remove that since it is PG13 and there were a lot of children in the screening with their parents.
hodayathink
Member
I thought they only showed Red Band trailers on R rated movies? I don't think I'd ever seen one on a PG-13 movie.
Squirrel Girl is officially on TV as part of the New Warriors.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Precisely. I don't think it was on purpose. But the trailers shown at my theater were odd.
Wish Upon, 47 Meters Down, Rough Night, Atomic Blonde, and Blade Runner 2049. Can't remember what else they attached, but the trailers were like 20 minutes. It was like the owners were thinking, "This has women. Oh, and women like Ryan Gosling."
Anecdotal evidence but Wonder woman was nowhere near as busy during the day as I was expecting it to be. Especially for a pa day with school out
It only had about 50 people for the 4pm show. For reference Guardians 2 had over 200 for the same time frame and it wasn't a pa day then either.
Of course the 7:15 show of Wonder woman (the busiest show for the day) did better with over 200 people but wasn't exactly at sell out levels either since the theather it was in can seat over 350. It was about as busy as Pirates was last weekend at the same time frame.
It only had about 50 people for the 4pm show. For reference Guardians 2 had over 200 for the same time frame and it wasn't a pa day then either.
Of course the 7:15 show of Wonder woman (the busiest show for the day) did better with over 200 people but wasn't exactly at sell out levels either since the theather it was in can seat over 350. It was about as busy as Pirates was last weekend at the same time frame.
RastaMentality
Banned
Got those same trailers in California. Sucked because it was mostly garbage.
Slayven, you're Slayven.
Dash_Riprock
Member
4th times the charm???
This makes absolutely no sense. Black Widow is a female character so it would the same thing as three other female-led movies, two of which are like 10 years old? What?
Black Widow isn't "random." She's a character that has been built-up for years and a character that Feige himself said he knows there is a demand for.
A lower budget Black Widow movie that focused on a spy mission, perhaps alongside Winter Soldier in the sidekick role, would make bank.
Saucycarpdog
Member
What the first time? Dracula Untold?
That was more of a not-officially-maybe starting point with no long term plans. Now they got both star power and long term plans.
Not saying it will help them but this is a much more serious attempt this time around.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Make Black Widow movie with the same team and budget as John Wick and watch the money roll in.
And all without naming any character more than 5 people on GAF have heard of.
No, it isn't. They showed a few horror film trailers first, but they were still green band. But once the F bombs started dropping in the Rough Night trailer I was looking around awkwardly at some of the families. When I got up to use the restroom partway through a manager was in the hall and let them know they might want to remove that since it is PG13 and there were a lot of children in the screening with their parents.
Act like we didn't just have movie with Female Starhawk in it. Anything and everything is allowed