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[kswiston]

Ha so Kswiss was .4 down on Tues but .4 up on Wedn

I did mention that I was probably being optimistic, and that today could be a 35% drop

I think that my original Thursday -5% is also on the optimistic side, but game 3 was last night, so maybe Wednesday took a slight hit.


Either way, we should probably expect a sub-$9M Thursday. Somewhere in the $8.45-8.95M range depending on tomorrow's percentage drop.


EDIT: I wonder when Deadline will give up on their $60M second weekend narrative.

 

[kswiston]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

 

[What did he mean by this?]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

Probably to change the name to something more original and remarket.

Amityville: Origins ?

 

[Obliterator]

EDIT: I wonder when Deadline will give up on their $60M second weekend narrative.

Yeah not sure why they are sticking to that. I'm thinking somewhere around $52m

 

[kswiston]

Yeah not sure why they are sticking to that. I'm thinking somewhere around $52m

Even $52M is probably on the optimistic side. I hope we don't get a "what went wrong?" narrative if Wonder Woman gets a 55% drop this weekend.

 

[Slayven]

Lightskintwin was saying the same thing early in this thread or the last one.

I put my entire first run of alpha flight volume 3 on it. The one with Wolverines dorky kid in it

 

[Lima]

What's with the weak ass Cruise missile hate huh? I'm gonna park my ass in the theater for the 8pm prime time showing. They put it on the largest screen again but tickets are selling at King Arthur rate which means not at all. I'm afraid the Cruise missile will miss its mark here in Germany too. 😭

 

[kswiston]

What's with the weak ass Cruise missile hate huh? I'm gonna park my ass in the theater for the 8pm prime time showing. They put it on the largest screen again but tickets are selling at King Arthur rate which means not at all. I'm afraid the Cruise missile will miss its mark here in Germany too. 😭

Wkd BO 06•09-11•17 - Cruise Missile misses NATO, detonates in Asia.

 

[tomtom94]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

Double feature with Geostorm

 

[Penguin]

Wonder Woman most tweeted movie of 2017... yay?

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/wonder-woman-twitter-record-2017-1202457742/

“Wonder Woman” has garnered more than 2.19 million tweets so far this year, according to exclusive information obtained by Variety from Twitter.

Those 2.19 million tweets make “Wonder Woman” the most popular movie on Twitter of 2017, surpassing “La La Land” and “Beauty and the Beast,” which topped the box office this year with over $1.2 billion internationally, but came in third place on Twitter.

 

[jon bones]

thank god spidey is out of the way of WW

 

[Penguin]

Speaking of Spidey, what does early tracking for that look like

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Speaking of Spidey, what does early tracking for that look like

Early tracking is calling for 135 mil opening weekend, with 325 mil total (domestic).

 

[ArmGunar]

Speaking of Spidey, what does early tracking for that look like

$135M OW
$325M domestic total

For boxoffice.com

 

[kswiston]

Wonder Woman most tweeted movie of 2017... yay?

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/wonder-woman-twitter-record-2017-1202457742/

Last year, Rogue One was #1, but the other 3 billion dollar films were #6 (Civil War), #7 (Finding Dory), and #9 (Zootopia). Ghostbusters was #10.

The List:

1) Rogue One - #2 WW in 2016
2) Suicide Squad - #10 WW in 2016
3) Deadpool - #9 WW in 2016
4) Fantastic Beasts - #8 WW in 2016
5) Batman v Superman - #7 WW in 2016
6) Civil War - #1 WW in 2016
7) Finding Dory - #3 WW in 2016
8) The Revenant - #13 WW in 2015
9) Zootopia - #4 WW in 2016
10) Ghostbusters - #36 WW in 2016


EDIT: I added the 2016 worldwide ranks for each film

 

[PhoncipleBone]

$135M OW
$325M domestic total

For boxoffice.com

Man, them saying Dunkirk getting a 4x OW multiplier?

$60m opening, 240m domestic. Those are some legs they are predicting.

 

[kswiston]

Man, them saying Dunkirk getting a 4x OW multiplier?

$60m opening, 240m domestic. Those are some legs they are predicting.

No doubt they are looking at Inception and Interstellar, which were both in that range or higher, plus the fact that it's a film that will skew older. It's still on the optimistic side though.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Man, them saying Dunkirk getting a 4x OW multiplier?

$60m opening, 240m domestic. Those are some legs they are predicting.

4.0 multiplier is probably reasonable enough considering the material and the release date. The big question is if it can open to $60M; I would expect closer to $45M right now.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

$135M OW
$325M domestic total

For boxoffice.com

Thats Guardians 2 numbers, right?

 

[kswiston]

4.0 multiplier is probably reasonable enough considering the material and the release date. The big question is if it can open to $60M; I would expect closer to $45M right now.

Pretty much all of the recent WW2 films hit at least 3x OW multis, and many are near or over 4x. As you say, the opening is the big question.

August is pretty dead though. If Dunkirk gets great WOM/reviews, I wouldn't be too shocked to see it approach a 5x multi if the opening weekend is closer to $40M than $60M.

 

[Lights and Waves]

Wonder Woman has surpassed $300M WW as of today.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ring-past-300-million-worldwide/#79f0212b6d39

 

[kunonabi]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

Jesus. I know the movie is going to be horrible but id still like to see it for the cast.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Pretty much all of the recent WW2 films hit at least 3x OW multis, and many are near or over 4x. As you say, the opening is the big question.

August is pretty dead though. If Dunkirk gets great WOM/reviews, I wouldn't be too shocked to see it approach a 5x multi if the opening weekend is closer to $40M than $60M.

May be a stupid question, but what does a multiplier in regards of BO mean?

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

Wonder Woman most tweeted movie of 2017... yay?

http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/wonder-woman-twitter-record-2017-1202457742/

If GAF is any indication, love them or hate them, but DC movies always generate a lot of conversation.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

May be a stupid question, but what does a multiplier in regards of BO mean?

It's what it does from the OW to the end. 60x4=240, so a 4.0 multiplier.

 

[kswiston]

May be a stupid question, but what does a multiplier in regards of BO mean?

It refers to the number you get when you divide total domestic gross by opening weekend (or less commonly used here, opening weekend by opening day).

If a film opens at $100M and makes $300M total, the total is 3x the opening weekend, so it has a 3x OW multiplier.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

It refers to the number you get when you divide total domestic gross by opening weekend (or less commonly used here, opening weekend by opening day).

If a film opens at $100M and makes $300M total, the total is 3x the opening weekend, so it has a 3x OW multiplier.

It's what it does from the OW to the end. 60x4=240, so a 4.0 multiplier.

Thanks!

 

[kswiston]

Thanks!

The opening weekend multiplier is a rough measure of a film's longevity/legs. You still need to take release date into consideration though. A 3x OW multiplier for a big release in early May is amazing. A 3x OW multiplier for a big release in late December is not.

EDIT: Generally speaking, films released during the summer, and during major holiday periods (mainly American Thanksgiving week and the winter holidays) have better legs by default thanks to larger weekday grosses. Films that have mostly working age audiences also have better weekday grosses.

 

[Kenzodielocke]

Wonder Woman has surpassed $300M WW as of today.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ring-past-300-million-worldwide/#79f0212b6d39

*as of yesterday.

 

[kswiston]

Wonder Woman will be somewhere between $147-148M after today.

Man of Steel made $41.3M in its second weekend and went on to make a $81M after day 10. So basically, a further 1.96x that second weekend take.

Here's what Wonder Woman looks like if it has the same 1.96x second weekend multiplier for the rest of its run after this weekend:

With a 55% drop this weekend:
First 7 days: $147M
Second weekend: $103.3M x 0.45 = $46.4M
Rest of Run using MoS legs: $46.4M x 1.96 = $90.8M
Domestic Total: 147M + 46.5M + 90.8M = $284M


With a 50% drop this weekend:
First 7 days: $147M
Second weekend: $103.3M x 0.5 = $51.6M
Rest of Run using MoS legs: $51.6 x 1.96 = $101.1M
Domestic Total: 147M + 51.6M + 101.1M = $299.7M



Now adjust for the fact that Man of Steel had terrible late holds. Wonder Woman is pretty close to locking up $300M unless this weekend is magically terrible.

 

[Slayven]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

Jesus, just put it on syfy and call it a day

 

[Jezan]

Wkd BO 06•09-11•17 - Cruise Missile misses Paradise Island, crashes, hits Steve Trevor instead

I'm late but:

Cruise Missile can't target Invisible Jet.

(Hits a pirate ship instead)

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

Now adjust for the fact that Man of Steel had terrible late holds. Wonder Woman is pretty close to locking up $300M unless this weekend is magically terrible.

I never thought WW had a chance at beating MoS. My apologies, Patty!

 

[duckroll]

Amityville: The Awakening has been yanked from its June 30th release date and now carries a TBA date.

This film was originally scheduled for a Jan 2015 release, and was shot in 2014.

Sounds like it's... going back to sleep.

......

Sorry.

 

[kswiston]

Pirates 5 is now the second highest grossing live action film of all time in Russia (after Avatar) using local currency. Of course, the Russian Ruble is sitting at about half of what it was when Avatar or Pirates 4 launched. So $30M lost to weak exchanges.

 

[Toa TAK]

Jesus, just put it on syfy and call it a day

Or Netflix even

 

[3N16MA]

I never thought WW had a chance at beating MoS. My apologies, Patty!

Most people didn't think it would do 600M when it was brought up last year. Ant-Man numbers were usually thrown around.

 

[kswiston]

Most people didn't think it would do 600M when it was brought up last year. Ant-Man numbers were usually thrown around.

Ant-Man will remain a pretty good comparison for the overall international number.

The Domestic predictions are where the crow is served.


I think that my last domestic prediction before reviews/WOM hit was $90M OW and $225M total, so I was under-shooting the legs as well.

EDIT: I had Wonder Woman at #4 in my summer box office prediction thread. That could still be right depending on where Despicable Me 3 and Spider-Man land. I'm starting to think that DM3 will be 4th now.

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

Most people didn't think it would do 600M when it was brought up last year. Ant-Man numbers were usually thrown around.

My first prediction was 470M worldwide and then I adjusted it to 590 a couple of weeks ago. I was not expecting such a warm reception but I'm happy I was wrong.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

$135M OW
$325M domestic total

For boxoffice.com

Really?

My complete lack of enthusiasm must not be a general thing.

 

[Schlorgan]

Last year, Rogue One was #1, but the other 3 billion dollar films were #6 (Civil War), #7 (Finding Dory), and #9 (Zootopia). Ghostbusters was #10.

The List:

1) Rogue One - #2 WW in 2016
2) Suicide Squad - #10 WW in 2016
3) Deadpool - #9 WW in 2016
4) Fantastic Beasts - #8 WW in 2016
5) Batman v Superman - #7 WW in 2016
6) Civil War - #1 WW in 2016
7) Finding Dory - #3 WW in 2016
8) The Revenant - #13 WW in 2015
9) Zootopia - #4 WW in 2016
10) Ghostbusters - #36 WW in 2016


EDIT: I added the 2016 worldwide ranks for each film

Yay! BvS finally beats Civil War at something!

Spoiler

;p

 

[kswiston]

BvS is #1 when it comes to opening weekend percentage of domestic gross for ALL Marvel/DC films this decade. Civil War had to settle for a lowly 4th place.

 

[X05]

Age of Ultron's $100M shortfall worldwide was entirely due to weakening exchange rates. Both made pretty much the same amount worldwide with matched rates.

Ultron's big dip was domestically. But it's not all that uncommon to see a big domestic dip to the follow up of a record breaking event film. We'll see how the Jurassic World sequel does next year.

But AoU did $946.4M OS vs $895.5M for The Avengers, with worse exchange rates. The WW difference was due to the Domestic drop.

It's also amazing because dear God were things rocky back then. Recasting, pay disputes, Iron Man 2 fall out. There'll be an amazing behind the scenes tell all someday about the MCU productions.

FWIW, the 3 disc special edition of IM2 had an hour and a half behind the scenes documentary that showed several of the issues and things that happened during production.

Thats Guardians 2 numbers, right?

GotG V2 had a $146M opening weekend and is heading towards a $385M domestic total.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

GotG V2 had a $146M opening weekend and is heading towards a $385M domestic total.

Woops, disappointment incoming.

 

[kswiston]

But AoU did $946.4M OS vs $895.5M for The Avengers, with worse exchange rates. The WW difference was due to the Domestic drop.

I meant that Age of Ultron would have edged out Avengers on the worldwide list if it benefitted from the same 2012 exchange rates. Overseas grosses were strong enough to carry it to $1.525B, even with the $160M domestic drop, if exchange rates hadn't dropped in those 3 years.

 

[J_Viper]

It'd be crazy if Homecoming ends up with less than GoTG2

Is it possible that the High School Freshmen setting is turning some people off?

 

[Jawmuncher]

Is Mummy even gonna manage 100 million domestic now?

 

[Discotheque]

Is it possible that the High School Freshmen setting is turning some people off?

Hope not. I want them to double down on that aspect for the sequels tbh. Those moments have been the best thing about the marketing.

 

[X05]

I meant that Age of Ultron would have edged out Avengers on the worldwide list if it benefitted from the same 2012 exchange rates. Overseas grosses were strong enough to carry it to $1.525B, even with the $160M domestic drop, if exchange rates hadn't dropped in those 3 years.

Ah yes, totally agree on that.
Apologies, had misunderstood what you meant.

 

[kswiston]

Is Mummy even gonna manage 100 million domestic now?

Probably not if it debuts with less than $40M, which seems very likely.

Domestic audiences have gotten picky in the last couple of years. Probably because we get a ton of $100M+ films now. Spectacle isn't enough to get someone to lay down $7-20 depending on location and format of choice.