LordOfLore
Banned
Don't worry, when that Monster Hunter movie finally comes out it'll be spoken about here as well
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd BO 0901-0317 - Labor Day WEAKend box office has nothing as Bodyguard 3peats
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Some of it is that, but Studios also completely abandoned August. Hopefully Wind River can leg past it, but The Nut Job 2 is currently the 5th biggest film to open this past August at all of $25M total.
The last time the Top 5 cut off for August releases was under $35M was back in 1999 (just under $33M for the 13th Warrior). At best, this year's slate of August releases will have the worst cumulative gross since August 1998.
Deadline summarised the summer:
Click through for the full article.
Black Republican
Member
Dark Tower worth watching for someone whos never read the book? it doesnt look that bad from the trailers
Continuing with what I was saying about August, look at this current Top 15 for new releases, and tell me where things were supposed to improve dramatically?
The Dark Tower could have done better, but nothing else below it on that list was realistically going to pull in more than $50M total. Most had no real shot at $20M.
Here's how the cumulative gross for August releases have looked these past few years. The 2017 total will go up some, but probably not more than $50M.
Unlike June and July, where we saw a lot of major films underperform, August is totally a failure on the part of distribution. Theatre chains (and the plummeting value of their shareholders) have a right to be pissed.
Code:
TITLE DIST DOM GROSS
1 Annabelle: Creation B (NL) $88,975,598
2 The Hitman's Bodyguard LG/S $54,944,214
3 The Dark Tower Sony $47,431,894
4 Kidnap (2017) Aviron $29,347,867
5 The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature ORF $25,855,476
6 Logan Lucky BST $21,451,612
7 Wind River Wein. $18,285,511
8 The Glass Castle LGF $14,749,759
9 Leap! Wein. $11,381,726
10 Birth of the Dragon BH Tilt $5,413,090
11 All Saints Sony $3,471,923
12 Mayweather vs. McGregor Fathom $2,620,183
13 Ingrid Goes West Neon $2,315,498
14 Jab Harry Met Sejal Yash $1,664,648
15 Good Time A24 $1,625,641The Dark Tower could have done better, but nothing else below it on that list was realistically going to pull in more than $50M total. Most had no real shot at $20M.
Here's how the cumulative gross for August releases have looked these past few years. The 2017 total will go up some, but probably not more than $50M.
Code:
Tot. Gross for Aug Releases YoY Change
2017 $338.1 -59.2%
2016 $828.9 +51.4%
2015 $547.4 -45.9%
2014 $1,011.6 +20.2%
2013 $841.5 +13.9%
2012 $739.1 +6.5%
2011 $693.7 +7.3%
2010 $646.3 -13.2%Unlike June and July, where we saw a lot of major films underperform, August is totally a failure on the part of distribution. Theatre chains (and the plummeting value of their shareholders) have a right to be pissed.
broncobuster
Banned
The House was another flop. Just not a $175M flop.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
XXX: Return of Xander Cage is Paramount's only successful movie this year. Sony is looking pretty good right now.
Out of curiosity where is news of Chinese pre-sales for Spider-Man coming from? I said it in the last thread but I really need this to beat BvS globally lol.
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/...ussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3167056
With numbers grabbed off Maoyan, which anyone can reference if you can read Chinese text (or want to mess around with Google Translate).
Presales are more than double those of Doctor Strange at the same point. Spider-Man started its presales earlier, so that isn't apples to apples exactly, but it is a good sign. $100M is locked. But you are more concerned about that $115-120M
Yeah, August has been a bit of a wasteland. I wonder if some of that is a recognition that many schools start earlier than they had years ago. When I grew up it seemed like the beginning of Sept. was back to school time, but now it's the beginning of August in many parts of the country. Seeing studios shift what they consider "summer" from June, July, August to May, June, July makes sense to me, although I wonder if we're heading to even more of a spread throughout the year (with still a focus on the May-July period).
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/...ussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=3167056
With numbers grabbed off Maoyan, which anyone can reference if you can read Chinese text (or want to mess around with Google Translate).
Presales are more than double those of Doctor Strange at the same point. Spider-Man started its presales earlier, so that isn't apples to apples exactly, but it is a good sign. $100M is locked. But you are more concerned about that $115-120M
As long as Spidey has any decent legs in China I think I'm in the clear. China is generally a fan of Spider-Man, right? And they love RDJ/Iron Man too?
Para also had Rings which did fine.
But there is a reason why I'm calling it Paramount Doom Watch.
Sony is doing ok, which is about the best they can hope for right now. Though their international numbers have been pretty good; e.g. Resident Evil, Smurfs.
Life was a disappointment.
Rough Night failed.
The Dark Tower wasn't a financial disaster but failed to launch a new franchise
And they have nothing of note until Jumanji in December.
There is Flatliners which isn't looking to set the world on fire.
Only The Brave might find an audience, but is unlikely to break out.
SPC has Call Me by Your Name which probably won't do Moonlight numbers but one can hope.
Funny how all Sony's dark drama/horror-ish films which failed (or are looking to fail) had Nordic directors, hell Arcel (Dark Tower) and Arden Oplev (Flatliners) even worked together on the original Girl With the Dragon Tattoo which was their major international break.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Really looking forward to IT next week. That leaked clip with Pennywise and the kid got me good.
BronsonLee
Member
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
This needs to be a bannable offense. Shit is getting out of hand.
The bronson bump needs some rash cream
BronsonLee
Member
We make it through the Summer of Hell, and the first thing you do afterward is stab me in the back
BOTH OF YAS
BOTH OF YAS
broncobuster
Banned
Bronson is the reason there will be a The Last Witch Hunter 2.
Seven years, and still no Tron 3 though!
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Kingdom Hearts is the only property that will carry the Tron banner forward.
BronsonLee
Member
what the hell is that photo
broncobuster
Banned
BronsonLee is secretly Barry Pepper trying to get Vin in a place for Knockaround Guys 2 to happen.
ElBoxyBrown
Banned
Maybe Bronson can help make Daddy's Home 2 a success for Paramount.
BronsonLee
Member
AngmarsKing701
Member
Irma gonna have an impact
MHWilliams
Member
Spider-Man Homecoming:
Even if it hits the US, probably not a huge impact. Last I checked, it was a week away from any potential US targets. Assuming that it doesn't get downgraded before then, It might hit Florida part way through next weekend. It could also just stay out to sea.
So happy for it. I loved it, and hated the way people and these Youtubers *cough* Grace Randolph *cough* were calling its performance mediocre to bad, and saying it would be behind all the other Spiderman films.....
Now its looking like it will be within a stone's throw of the number 1 spider man film in a firm second place which is fucking GREAT considering they tanked the franchise's reputation for so many years before this film. It won't end far from BvS and has a chance to pass it, and will be the #1 Superhero gross of the year so far Worldwide until JL and Thor 3. I would love to see someone call that a failure.
BronsonLee
Member
I'm not confident that Ragnarok beats Homecoming
Scott Mendelson of Forbes
Does he seriously for one second think it might not topple SPR? Especially since he quotes a possible 30-35m more in China alone.
But then this is the guy that said "barring a fluke in either direction, it's looking like a final domestic gross of around $265m to $285m" for Homecoming.
Does he seriously for one second think it might not topple SPR? Especially since he quotes a possible 30-35m more in China alone.
But then this is the guy that said "barring a fluke in either direction, it's looking like a final domestic gross of around $265m to $285m" for Homecoming.
broncobuster
Banned
Hint: those calling Homecoming a failure are the same but opposite people who called BvS and Suicide Squad failures.
It's all carny nonsense.
friskykillface
Banned
They really should have saved apes for the end of August
They fucked up hard
BronsonLee
Member
Wkd BO 0908-1017 - A steady stream of snappy patter
Sibersk Esto
Banned
Spider-Man Homecoming:
LMAO
Grizzlyjin
Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
Does Paramount even have any big sure fire hits coming soon? Mission Impossible in 2018...umm, maybe Bumblebee but who knows with how The Last Knight collapsed. Star Trek time travel story sounds iffy as heck, even with Pine and Hemsworth riding high at the moment. Beyond was sent to die despite a really solid RT score. Uhhhhhh World War Z 2? Top Gun? I could see both of those being too late and getting slept on.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
As much as the comic bookness of GOTG2 broke your mind, Slayven, I feel that Ragnarok will break it further for going balls deep into Kirby and Simonson stuff.
Sure, it won't have Krugarr, but I expect a whole lot of crazy nerdiness from it.
These are all just warming you up for Black Panther is all.
Given how Sony had Marvel do all the heavy lifting on Homecoming (and didn't try and hide the fact) it just makes their misses like Dark Tower and Rough Night all the more glaring.
While Baby Driver and Emoji Movie both did well neither was the home run (so to speak) that the studio needed. As far as I'm concerned this summer has only papered over the cracks and they are still in as much trouble as Paramount are.., well, nearly.
The House, which I actually quite liked, was also a bomb but I imagine there's more than enough hits to mop up that red ink and it wasn't too expensive, relatively speaking.
Given how much they lost on Beyond and the fact that Trek isn't a film franchise with big licensing revenues I doubt we'll see another Abrams Trek film from Paramount. Especially with original rights holder CBS making a tv show.
If I were Paramount I'd be trying to recreate the success Lionsgate had with the YA market and try and find the next Twilight or Hunger Games (easier said than done I grant you) rather than pumping big money into tired shit like Top Gun 2 or a WWZ sequel even if Fincher is directing.
Went to see Logan Lucky here but apparently it bombed so hard most theaters pulled it after a week. Ended up seeing American Made blind. What an odd movie that was. Tom Cruise plays corrupt but likable pilot who constantly fails upwards? It was weird, man. Liman is an odd duck director.
Here are the people who posted predictions for IT next weekend:
I saw 46 of you, including a couple of joke answers. Let me know if you posted as part of the contest and are not in the list above.
Not counting the $1 and $250M predictions, The Box Office GAF average was $77.81M.
Thanks to those who spread their guesses out.
Here's how I will determine who wins the prizes:
1) More than one winner: In the few cases where there were two identical predictions, the person who posted their guess first will get first dibs of the two games up for grabs, and the other person will get the remaining game. In cases where there are 3 or more identical predictions, I will let a RNG choose the two winners, and then use the "posted first" method above to decide who gets first dibs on choosing a game.
2) One winner, but more than one runner-up: The winner will get first dibs on the game of their choice. I will let a RNG pick the runner up from the pool of identical answers.
Again, the games up for grabs are Soma and Killing Floor 2, both on PC/Steam.
If you win, but have one or both of those, let me know. It will make things easier. Ditto if you don't have a PC that will run those (I don't think either is particularly demanding though), or just hate PC gaming. Or hey, maybe you hate gaming in general now. This is the OT!
You'll still have bragging rights for winning.
Code:
USERNAME PREDICTION (millions USD)
The Driver $250.00
Biggest-Geek-Ever $101.20
AdventureRacing $95.00
Busty $90.00
snap $87.00
pestul $85.50
Schlorgan $85.00
Ignatz Mouse $85.00
Freeza Under the Shower $85.00
Cvie $84.00
BronsonLee $84.00
WhiteRabbitEXE $83.50
Bobby Roberts $83.00
PhonicipleBone $82.50
Sgt. Kabukiman $82.00
BumRush $82.00
Caode $82.00
Jigorath $81.00
Miles X $80.00
Saucycarpdog $80.00
overcast $79.00
CaviarMeths $78.50
vinnygambini $78.20
LordOfLore $78.00
hodayathink $77.00
GhaleonEB $77.00
Kenzodielocke $76.20
milanbaros $76.00
What did he mean by this? $76.00
FTF $76.00
Random Human $76.00
Phamit $73.50
LFMartins86 $73.00
berzeli $72.00
gamz $72.00
Penguin $71.80
Prompto $71.40
AndyVirus $71.00
Gentleman Jack $70.30
catmincer $69.00
Lifeline $69.00
Famassu $67.85
Slayven $64.00
Chamber $58.00
tonka $55.00
ryutaro's mama $0.000001I saw 46 of you, including a couple of joke answers. Let me know if you posted as part of the contest and are not in the list above.
Not counting the $1 and $250M predictions, The Box Office GAF average was $77.81M.
Thanks to those who spread their guesses out.
Here's how I will determine who wins the prizes:
1) More than one winner: In the few cases where there were two identical predictions, the person who posted their guess first will get first dibs of the two games up for grabs, and the other person will get the remaining game. In cases where there are 3 or more identical predictions, I will let a RNG choose the two winners, and then use the "posted first" method above to decide who gets first dibs on choosing a game.
2) One winner, but more than one runner-up: The winner will get first dibs on the game of their choice. I will let a RNG pick the runner up from the pool of identical answers.
Again, the games up for grabs are Soma and Killing Floor 2, both on PC/Steam.
If you win, but have one or both of those, let me know. It will make things easier. Ditto if you don't have a PC that will run those (I don't think either is particularly demanding though), or just hate PC gaming. Or hey, maybe you hate gaming in general now. This is the OT!
You'll still have bragging rights for winning.