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Wkd BO 10•28-30•16 - Audiences over Dr. Langdon, want Dr. Strange ($86m intl. open)

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K

kswiston

Member
y2dvd said:
Should probably compare Strange to other opening movies like Cap1 or Thor1. I'd be interested how those compared.
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First Fridays (incl previews) for MCU non-sequels


Iron Man - $38.7M
Guardians of the Galaxy - $37.8M
Captain America: First Avenger - $25.7M
Thor - $25.5M
Ant-Man - $22.6M
Incredible Hulk - $21.5M

Official numbers will be out soon, but the early range for Strange was $31-34M


EDIT:

Lower (using $31M Friday) and Upper (using $34M friday) domestic totals for Doctor Strange if it follows the total/first day ratio of the following MCU films:

Incredible Hulk Legs - $195-214M
First Avenger Legs - $214-231M
Thor legs - $220-241M
Ant-Man legs - $247-271M
GotG legs - $273M-$300M
 
K

kswiston

Member
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) Doctor Strange - $32.6M
2) Trolls - $12.3M
3) Hacksaw Ridge - $5.2M
4) Boo! A Madea Halloween - $2.2M (-53%) - $59M total
5) Inferno - $1.9M (-67%) - $22M total
6) the Accountant - $1.8M (-31%) - $67M total
7) Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (-44%) - $1.6M - $45M total
8) Ouija: Origin of Evil - $1.2M (-47%) - $29M total
 
W

wachie

Member
kswiston said:
We will get official estimates in 2-3 hours, but Rth was saying $33-34M for Strange's Friday ($23.6-25.6M Friday proper) as of last night. Deadline is saying $31-32M.

Thor 2 opened to $31.9M on that first Friday. $24.8M on Friday proper.
Click to expand...
Deadline FTW.
 
K

kswiston

Member
BumRush said:
Really? I think a $75M+ opening weekend for a solo marvel movie about Strange is pretty good. Swiss?
Click to expand...

There aren't a ton of great comparisons for Strange since most comic films release in the summer. Comparing sequels to non-sequels also isn't a perfect comparison, even if being part of the MCU gives Strange a built in core audience.

That said:

If Doctor Strange follows the same Friday (proper) to weekend multiplier as Thor 2, it will end up with an $83M weekend. Winter Soldier's increases lead to the same number.

wachie said:
Deadline FTW.
Click to expand...

Rth actually said $32-34M, but I managed to typo it. So Deadline loses.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
kswiston said:
There aren't a ton of great comparisons for Strange since most comic films release in the summer. Comparing sequels to non-sequels also isn't a perfect comparison, even if being part of the MCU gives Strange a built in core audience.

That said:

If Doctor Strange follows the same Friday (proper) to weekend multiplier as Thor 2, it will end up with an $83M weekend. Winter Soldier's increases lead to the same number.
Click to expand...

True, I think the two that are closest to compare it to would he Ant-Man and Guardians. Both were total unknown properties to mass audience and both released after the MCU was fully established. Strange first Friday is 10 million above Ant-Man and 5 million below Guardians. It's not a perfect comparison of course but I think Marvel have gotta be happy with the result
 
K

kswiston

Member
Doctor Strange will open around $45M in China this weekend.

Max Steel also ended its run on Thursday, making a whopping $3.8M domestic on its $15-20M budget.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
I've seen posters for Hacksaw Ridge in the theaters and I've been seeing some ads on GAF recently. That's about it though.

Wikipedia lists its budget at $40 million. That's not a good start if true.
 
C

Cuburt

Member
kswiston said:
Max Steel also ended its run on Thursday, making a whopping $3.8M domestic on its $15-20M budget.
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Yeah, I definitely wondered who that movie was for when I saw the trailer, especially with the big ol' "Mattel" logo in the beginning trying to sell you the toys before you even know what it is for.

Recently saw the Monster Trucks trailer (realizing shortly into it that it wasn't for Max Steel) and while that looks a little more fun, I expect it to be the exact same story.

In fact, I just looked up info on Monster Trucks on Wikipedia while writing this and I saw this
On September 21, 2016, The Hollywood Reporter claimed Paramount would take a $115 million writedown on the film due to its expected poor performance at the box-office.[26]
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This is a movie that Hollywood Reporter is saying has a $100M budget, comes out next year, and the studio seems to be already anticipating a flop.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Worth noting that the only Marvel films prior that had to deal with another film making $40+M when opening were Ant-Man and Captain America 1. I think that's probably what prevented Strange from reaching a $90+M OW.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Worth noting that the only Marvel films prior that had to deal with another film making $40+M when opening were Ant-Man and Captain America 1. I think that's probably what prevented Strange from reaching a $90+M OW.
Click to expand...

I am surprised that fox stuck to that weekend for Trolls. If they were afraid of Moana, October was wide open.
 
D

Decado

Member
Schlorgan said:
I've seen posters for Hacksaw Ridge in the theaters and I've been seeing some ads on GAF recently. That's about it though.

Wikipedia lists its budget at $40 million. That's not a good start if true.
Click to expand...
40m is very reasonable and could do ok if there is overseas interest.

The film just got a shit NA distributor.
 
R

Ridley327

Member
As long as WOM stays positive heading into next weekend, I think Hacksaw Ridge can hold pretty well heading into Veterans Day, especially when its only competition that weekend is Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk which is A) playing in just NY and LA and B) not getting particularly good buzz at this point. Lionsgate does still suck, though, and I can't believe that they're not jumping on all the praise in their advertising.
 
K

kswiston

Member
So China's box office has completely stalled this year. It's been down YoY for several months now, and is only ahead of 2015 YTD (in local currency) due to the strong start of the year. Thanks to a weaker exchange, the Chinese box office is down year on year in USD.
 
B

Blablurn

Member
kswiston said:
So China's box office has completely stalled this year. It's been down YoY for several months now, and is only ahead of 2015 YTD (in local currency) due to the strong start of the year. Thanks to a weaker exchange, the Chinese box office is down year on year in USD.
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Also a reason why they let more hollywood movies come in now.

Furthermore they stopped doing crazy sales for tickets like they used too.
 
O

OrangeAtlas

Member
Schlorgan said:
I've seen posters for Hacksaw Ridge in the theaters and I've been seeing some ads on GAF recently. That's about it though.

Wikipedia lists its budget at $40 million. That's not a good start if true.
Click to expand...

Only advertisement I've seen anywhere is a single poster in the subway where I get off for school.

Shame, the movie seems incredible and deserves a lot of success.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Rth on BOT is reporting that Doctor Strange is looking to stay flat today, with $32M.

When removing previews, it would be the largest Saturday increase for an MCU film yet.
 
J

JaggedSac

Member
Saw both Hacksaw and Strange today. Enjoyed both. Hopefully Hacksaw makes its money back, it was really good. A bit saccharine in parts, some weird parts in the combat where a Rambo type character shows up, lol, but overall, really great. Strange was a bit long, the action could be a bit much with all the cg, but an enjoyable flick nonetheless. First decent Marvel movie in a while.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Opening higher than Thor 2 would be a pretty respectable achievement for Doctor Strange. So much for the $50-75M tracking a few weeks back.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
kswiston said:
Opening higher than Thor 2 would be a pretty respectable achievement for Doctor Strange. So much for the $50-75M tracking a few weeks back.
Click to expand...

Thor 2 has been the main comparison for this one. If it manages to put up Thor 2 numbers worldwide, that will have been good.
 
K

kswiston

Member
$44.4M for Doctor Strange in China this weekend. It also had the best Saturday bump and Sunday drop for Superhero films this year, so hopefully good legs.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Doctor Strange - $85M
2) Trolls - $45.6M
3) Hacksaw Ridge - $14.8M
4) Boo! A Madea Halloween - $7.8M - $65M total
5) Inferno - $6.2M - $26M total
6) The Accountant - $5.95M - $71M
7) Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - $5.6M - $49M total

Edit: Doctor Strange is at $325M worldwide after a $203M worldwide weekend.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Trolls put an end to Storks' good legs. It will end its domestic run at or under $75M

Doctor Strange continues Marvel's perfect streak of #1 openings (all over $50M as well)
 
M

Mix Master

Member
this thread is still dead, in the summer there's like 30 pages.
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