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Wkd BO 12•30•16-01•02•16 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up

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I typed up what would be in the OP but I'm not so sure about it anymore (a lot of well-reviewed movies coming out this month): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xZT_O0P9x1__WBxGELsVNXkI0-sZwTqUb4aEGk5XAWk/edit?usp=sharing

I know January is usually a dumping grounds month, but with Disney practically dominating every other month, and then Fox and WB filling in the gaps with big releases where they can, maybe January is now attempting be a place where otherwise overlooked movies get a chance to breath?

I mean, I know XXX isn't trying to release anywhere near a Disney/"Marvel"/Lucasfilm/DC movie which more or less has March - July locked up tight, and then Nov-Dec as well.
Deadpool proved that February can be a good month too if you market it correctly.
That doesn't leave the rest of the smaller movies a lot of months to breath in.
 
According to Box Office Mojo, Episode 3 adjusts to $510M. While Rogue One has the benefit of 3D, among other things, when all is said and done the admissions between the two will be very close (<10% difference).

Makes one realize just how much the quality of the prequels hurt their box office.
 

Litan

Member
What is this? Phase 3's line-up is complete with 3 films already in 2018 (with the last being Ant-Man & The Wasp in July).
The movie after A4. A lot of speculation that it'll be Spiderman 2. They're going to work poor Holland to death.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Hahaha...those idiots! &#128529;

Hindsight is also 20/20.

People were looking at Marvel's insane popularity vs. SW's unknown appeal following the PT fuckery.

It wasn't an insane call to make in real time.
Very true. It's much more of a known quantity now than it was even a year ago.
 

kswiston

Member
Since it's a new year, and we've discussed a few top films from previous years, here's the #1 film winners for Domestic, International, and Worldwide since 1989.

Some of the numbers don't match Mojo's summary of the same films, because they lump all international (but not domestic) re-release cash under the year of release for some stupid reason. These should be the corrected values.

Code:
Year	#1 Domestic Film			#1 International Film			#1 Worldwide Film
2016	Rogue One ($530-570M)			Captain America: Civil War ($745M)	Captain America: Civil War (?) ($1153M)
2015	The Force Awakens ($936M)		Furious 7 ($1163M)			The Force Awakens ($2068M)
2014	American Sniper ($350M)			Transformers: AoE ($859M)		Transformers: AoE ($1104M)
2013	Catching Fire ($425M)			Frozen ($876M)				Frozen ($1277M)
2012	The Avengers ($623M)			The Avengers ($896M)			The Avengers ($1519M)
2011	Harry Potter: DH2 ($381M)		Harry Potter: DH2 ($961M)		Harry Potter: DH2 ($1342M)
2010	Toy Story 3 ($415M)			Toy Story 3 ($652M)			Toy Story 3 ($1067M)
2009	Avatar ($750M)				Avatar ($2005M)				Avatar ($2755M)
2008	The Dark Knight ($533M)			The Dark Knight ($470M)			The Dark Knight ($1003M)
2007	Spider-Man 3 ($337M)			PotC: At World's End ($654M)		PotC: At World's End ($963M)
2006	PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($423M)		PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($643M)		PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($1066M)
2005	Revenge of the Sith ($380M)		Harry Potter: atGoF ($607M)		Harry Potter: atGoF ($897M)
2004	Shrek 2 ($441M)				Shrek 2 ($479M)				Shrek 2 ($919M)
2003	Lord of the Rings: RotK ($379M)		Lord of the Rings:: RotK ($742M)	Lord of the Rings:: RotK ($1119M)
2002	Spider-Man ($404M)			Lord of the Rings: TTT ($584M)		Lord of the Rings: TTT ($923M)
2001	Harry Potter: atSS ($318M)		Harry Potter: atSS ($657M)		Harry Potter: atSS ($975M)
2000	How the Grinch Stole X-Mas ($260M)	Mission Impossible 2 ($331M)		Mission Impossible 2 ($546M)
1999	The Phantom Menace ($431M)		The Phantom Menace ($492M)		The Phantom Menace ($923M)
1998	Saving Private Ryan ($217M)		Armageddon ($352M)			Armageddon ($554M)
1997	Titanic ($601M)				Titanic ($1242M)			Titanic ($1832M)
1996	Independence Day ($306M)		Independence Day ($511M)		Independence Day ($817M)
1995	Toy Story ($192M)			Die Hard with a Vengeance ($266M)	Toy Story ($374M)
1994	Forrest Gump ($330M)			The Lion King ($451M)			The Lion King ($764M)
1993	Jurassic Park ($357M)			Jurassic Park ($556M)			Jurassic Park ($913M)
1992	Aladdin ($217M)				The Body Guard ($289M)			Aladdin ($504M)
1991	Terminator 2 ($205M)			Terminator 2 ($315M)			Terminator 2 ($520M)
1990	Home Alone ($286M)			Ghost ($288M)				Ghost ($506M)
1989	Batman ($251M)				Indiana Jones: atLC ($277M)		Indiana Jones: atLC ($474M)

One film took all 3 titles in 14 of the past 28 years.

Not counting 2016 yet, in the years where the top domestic and international film were different, the domestic winner only took the worldwide crown 3 times (TFA, Toy Story, and Aladdin). The international winner was the worldwide winner the other 10 times.

Terminator 2 was the only Rated R film to take all 3 categories since the 80s. The Bodyguard, Die Hard with a Vengeance, and Saving Private Ryan were the only other R-Rated films to hit #1 in a single category.

No film has ever won the worldwide boxoffice crown without taking one of the two other categories (at least since 1989).
 

kswiston

Member
As an aside, I have seen every domestic winner from that list above. I have also seen all but two of the International winners (Age of Extinction and Furious 7). I will probably watch Furious 7 at some point on Netflix.
 
As an aside, I have seen every domestic winner from that list above. I have also seen all but two of the International winners (Age of Extinction and Furious 7). I will probably watch Furious 7 at some point on Netflix.

After Transformers 2, I decided I was done watching those films. Put it this way, I was on a 10+ hour trip back from Europe and it was one of the free movies.

IT WAS FREE, I WAS TRAPPED ON A LONG FLIGHT AND I STILL SAID NEIN.
 

kswiston

Member
Did a bit of digging on the-numbers and came up with 1984: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/records/worldwide/1984

This is basically a cheat, though, since Grand Canyon: The Hidden Secrets is one of those IMAX docs that play essentially forever.

I doubt that is accurate given the number of IMAX screens in the 80s, and the overseas grosses of more recent big IMAX films when the films were tracked in the same manner as traditional cinema releases (T-Rex, Space Station 3D, Everest, etc). It also doesn't seem to be backed up in most places you would expect it to be backed up.

Swiss confirmed to have no respect for family OR giant robutts

I have seen 4.5 Fast and Furious films and 2 Transformers films.
 

Cheebo

Banned
As an aside, I have seen every domestic winner from that list above. I have also seen all but two of the International winners (Age of Extinction and Furious 7). I will probably watch Furious 7 at some point on Netflix.

Furious 7 is mindless fun. Worth seeing.

I have seen all but 1 of those domestic winners (American Sniper) and all but 1 one International (Age of Extinction).

Zero interest in ever seeing either.
 

Schlorgan

Member
It's a toss up between Fast 5 and Fast and Furious 6 being my favorite, with 7 right behind them.
8 is looking pretty good too but I doubt it'll get even close to the box office success that 7 had.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
sing looks like what everyone thought zootopia was going to be.

I don't know, I feel that one is going to get some real bad blowback. A lot of people just won't be able to accept anyone but Harrison in that role

I think it will be fine, since they are going the young route. It's like saying no one would accept anyone but Alec Guinness as Obi-wan, and then Ewan crushed it. With the cast and talent on board, I don't expect any blowback. Though there will be lots of comparisons.
 

AniHawk

Member
I think it will be fine, since they are going the young route. It's like saying no one would accept anyone but Alec Guinness as Obi-wan, and then Ewan crushed it. With the cast and talent on board, I don't expect any blowback. Though there will be lots of comparisons.

i think what'd probably help is if harrison endorsed the guy and liked the movie.
 

3N16MA

Banned
Illumination is doing what DreamWorks Animation tried to do for many years which is legitimately compete with Pixar/Disney at the box office. Pets didn't beat Dory (no one expected it to) but it was a hit and pretty much halted Dory's march to 500M DOM. Sing is now going to topple Moana. This is after Minions topped Inside Out WW last summer and the Despicable Me franchise is already a massive hit with another one on the way.

Every single one of their films have had a production budget under 80M.
 
Illumination is doing what DreamWorks Animation tried to do for many years which is legitimately compete with Pixar/Disney at the box office. Pets didn't beat Dory (no one expected it to) but it was a hit and pretty much halted Dory's march to 500M DOM. Sing is now going to topple Moana. This is after Minions topped Inside Out WW last summer and the Despicable Me franchise is already a massive hit with another one on the way.

Every single one of their films have had a production budget under 80M.
Comparing Illumination to Dreamworks is apt. With Shrek, Dreamworks had a monster series with the grosses, but time hasn't been kind to them. While Illumination films bring the money now (and far cheaper than DW did), I don't think anyone will give a shit in a couple of years.
Meanwhile, most (but not all), of Pixar's stuff will age very well.
 
What is the film that can do one billion domestic? When will it happen?

movie all-stars to the rescue, featuring john boyega as finn, daniel radcliffe as harry potter, and george c scott as actual marijuana smoke or something.

Actually it will be the Star Wars MCU crossover event. Phase 4/EpX-XII
Thanos teams up w/ the Sith Lords and the Clone Army, Guardians and The Avengers team up w/ the Jedi and the Rebellion. The final battle takes place in the Land of Avatar and James Cameron directs & produces the final movie in 48mm IMAX VR4D.
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
So which studio is going to drop at the bottom in 2017?

Paramount. Monster Trucks supposedly had a $100 million writedown already, and the whitewashing blowback might be enough to sink Ghost in the Shell, even without F8 and Furious coming out two weeks later.

Transformers 5 is going to basically make or break them in 2017.
 
What is the film that can do one billion domestic? When will it happen?

When the US actually has more than 500 million people to select from. Where do expect to get a 100 million people at 10 bucks per ticket from when the US only has 330 million people to select from?
TFA is an outlier because of (rich) people rewatching it often, apparently. Titanic was the only other movie to be rewatched, and perhaps Avatar (since in that case the 3D is worthwhile), and would probably surpass TFA if released today, assuming those BO's are not inflation adjusted.

I think the sudden growth of domestic gross upon the release of Avatar (750m) says more about the inclusion of 3D and the increase in the price of the ticket than it says about what is reasonably achievable. Note that the variance is pretty stable between 300-400m right till that point, and its relative growth index can be easily correlated with the population growth. Even The Dark Knight, a universally loved and praised movie beyond what other movies on that list, made only 533m domestic the year before Avatar. And as far as I know, 3D was just not a big thing before Avatar (and frankly, not that much after either, but for some reason we're still forcing that).

The same pattern shows up in the worldwide list. Avatar, TFA, and Titanic jump out, the rest is a relatively steady climb along with the world's population ( = available audience).
 
Quite a box office difference between Episode VII and Rogue One, despite latter being clearly the better movie overall.

Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.
 

Cheebo

Banned
So Box Office GAF, what ended up being your top 5 of the year? Mine was:
1. Arrival
2. Rogue One
3. Hell or High Water
4. Zootopia
5. The Nice Guys

Quite a box office difference between Episode VII and Rogue One, despite latter being clearly the better movie overall.

Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.

Are you implying Rogue One didn't do well as well as it could have? It is going to finish with 550-600 domestically which vastly overperformed almost every single high end prediction for the film. That is an absolutely ungodly high number for a spin-off film. If anything it implies Episode 8 will be even bigger than some expected.
 

DeathyBoy

Banned
I had the most fun last year with Friend Request. It was fucking dogshit, but witches hacking Facebook using magical code was jaw-dropping hilarious.

MAIN CHARACTER: Fix my Facebook please, it's clearly been hacked.
FACEBOOK: Nah, it's fine.
 

pestul

Member
Quite a box office difference between Episode VII and Rogue One, despite latter being clearly the better movie overall.

Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.
I think Rogue One's 'over performance' likely leads one to believe that Episode VIII has a decent shot at being close to or exceeding VII's haul domestically.
 

Cheebo

Banned
VII ended on a pretty powerful cliffhanger and was extremely well liked by audiences. Rogue One shows the appetite for Star Wars is beyond massive domestically. And now sadly the Carrie Fisher last film factor.

The floor for 8 is 750 mil domestic. Depending how things play out should finish anywhere between 750 mil and 950 mil.
 

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
Quite a box office difference between Episode VII and Rogue One, despite latter being clearly the better movie overall.

Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.

Right... GAF hyperbole rearing it's ugly head again.

I, and many(most?) others, liked TFA more than R1(which I still liked). TFA was also a huge comeback for the series after more than a decade of absence, and it had the stars of the old movies returning, and it is definitely a more marketable and family friendly movie than R1. So it's not really a surprise that R1 doesn't measure up to TFA in the box office.

Don't let the GAF echo chamber distort your view of the popular opinions of these two movies.
 
Paramount. Monster Trucks supposedly had a $100 million writedown already, and the whitewashing blowback might be enough to sink Ghost in the Shell, even without F8 and Furious coming out two weeks later.

Transformers 5 is going to basically make or break them in 2017.

Whoever green lit Monster Trucks should've been fired faster than the Duff Zero guy.
 
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