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Wkd BO 12•30•16-01•02•16 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up

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K

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio 4-day Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $64.3M - $440M total
2) Sing - $56.4M - $180M total
3) Passengers - $20.7M - $66M total
4) Moana - $14.3M - $213M total
5) Why Him? - $13.0M - $38M total
6) Fences - $12.7M - $33M total
7) La La Land - $12.3M - $37M total
8) Assassin's Creed - $10.9M - $42M total
9) Manchester by the Sea - $5.5M - $30M total
10) Fantastic Beasts- $5.4M - $225M total

Rogue One had a much poorer hold than I thought it would. In fact it has the lowest bump of any film in the top 25 other than Office xmas party, basically equaling last weeks 3-day gross in 4 days. Many films were up 40-80% in that same time frame. Beating The Dark Knight domestically is no longer looking like a sure thing.

Fantastic Beasts had a great holiday. It will definitely pass Doctor Strange domestically now. Worldwide total is at $777M.

Assassins Creed will pass Warcraft domestically and become one of the top 10 video game films of all time! Resounding success /Michael Patcher

Moana is at $400M worldwide. It should end up somewhere over $500M but it looks like overseas audiences werent in love with the film.

Sing is at $278M worldwide with Italy, France, UK, Russia, and Japan left to open this month (and March for Japan).

$775M for Rogue One worldwide. China opens next weekend. Given that TFA wad at $1.5B by this point (also with China left to open), Civil War will keep the worldwide crown.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Schlorgan said:
Is R1 hitting $1 billion still a lock?
Click to expand...

Ya. It's got $220M to go, and even on the low end, China will do a third of that.

The Force Awakens made another $185M coming off a 4-day total of $98M at this same point. Same exact legs would be another $120M for Rogue One. However, I think R1 is going to start falling behind, so maybe $90-100M is more likely.

Even at $90M domestic and $75M China, the rest of the wolrd would only have to make $55M to hit $1B.
 
G

gamz

Member
kswiston said:
Ya. It's got $220M to go, and even on the low end, China will do a third of that.

The Force Awakens made another $185M coming off a 4-day total of $98M at this same point. Same exact legs would be another $120M for Rogue One. However, I think R1 is going to start falling behind, so maybe $90-100M is more likely.

Even at $90M domestic and $75M China, the rest of the wolrd would only have to make $55M to hit $1B.
Click to expand...

China opens Friday.
 
P

Penguin

Member
kswiston said:
Weekend Studio 4-day Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $64.3M - $440M total
2) Sing - $56.4M - $180M total
3) Passengers - $20.7M - $66M total
4) Moana - $14.3M - $213M total
5) Why Him? - $13.0M - $38M total
6) Fences - $12.7M - $33M total
7) La La Land - $12.3M - $37M total
8) Assassin's Creed - $10.9M - $42M total
9) Manchester by the Sea - $5.5M - $30M total
10) Fantastic Beasts- $5.4M - $225M total

Rogue One had a much poorer hold than I thought it would. In fact it has the lowest bump of any film in the top 25 other than Office xmas party, basically equaling last weeks 3-day gross in 4 days. Many films were up 40-80% in that same time frame. Beating The Dark Knight domestically is no longer looking like a sure thing.

Fantastic Beasts had a great holiday. It will definitely pass Doctor Strange domestically now. Worldwide total is at $777M.

Assassins Creed will pass Warcraft domestically and become one of the top 10 video game films of all time! Resounding success /Michael Patcher

Moana is at $400M worldwide. It should end up somewhere over $500M but it looks like overseas audiences werent in love with the film.

Sing is at $278M worldwide with Italy, France, UK, Russia, and Japan left to open this month (and March for Japan).

$775M for Rogue One worldwide. China opens next weekend. Given that TFA wad at $1.5B by this point (also with China left to open), Civil War will keep the worldwide crown.
Click to expand...

Assassin's Creed stays winning!

But seriously 2016 will probably set back video game movies even more.

Maybe more cheap-ish animated films like Angry Birds
 
P

Pachimari

Member
Nice to see Fences doing well.

I still haven't seen Rogue One, which I have been really excited about. I'll wait for the Bluray release.
 
K

kswiston

Member
The combined production cost of this year's 4 major video game movies was just shy of $400M. The combined domestic take for those 4 films will end up being $215-225M.
 
P

Penguin

Member
kswiston said:
The combined production cost of this year's 4 major video game movies was just shy of $400M. The combined domestic take for those 4 films will end up being $215-225M.
Click to expand...

Looks like it will win, but it was looking like their worldwide gross combined may not have surpassed BvS

But AC still has a few decent markets to open in
 
K

kswiston

Member
Penguin said:
Looks like it will win, but it was looking like their worldwide gross combined may not have surpassed BvS

But AC still has a few decent markets to open in
Click to expand...

Video game films should thank China for the $300M boost (between Warcraft and Angry Birds).
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
BlackNMild2k1 said:
I just Warcraft for the first time this morning. I didn't think it was bad, hell I might even watch the sequel. Probably not in the theater, but I'll probably get around to the sequel much faster than the original.
Click to expand...
Chances of it getting a sequel are very small.
 
E

El Topo

Member
Those overseas numbers for Moana are just sad. I assume some of it is due to the weak European currencies, but it's still disappointing.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Cheebo said:
What sequel lol.
Click to expand...

I can see a Chinese production sequel within the next 3-4 years. They need to get the budget down to $110-125M, but there was enough interest in China for the first film that a cheaper sequel could come close to breaking even in that territory alone. Chinese co-productions would come with a studio share that is over 40% instead of the typical 25%. Legendary is owned by a Chinese company.

Most of the cast is replaceable. Just swap in some Chinese stars and hope for $250-300M in China to offset most of the costs.
 
B

BumRush

Member
kswiston said:
Weekend Studio 4-day Estimates:

1) Rogue One - $64.3M - $440M total
2) Sing - $56.4M - $180M total
3) Passengers - $20.7M - $66M total
4) Moana - $14.3M - $213M total
5) Why Him? - $13.0M - $38M total
6) Fences - $12.7M - $33M total
7) La La Land - $12.3M - $37M total
8) Assassin's Creed - $10.9M - $42M total
9) Manchester by the Sea - $5.5M - $30M total
10) Fantastic Beasts- $5.4M - $225M total

Rogue One had a much poorer hold than I thought it would. In fact it has the lowest bump of any film in the top 25 other than Office xmas party, basically equaling last weeks 3-day gross in 4 days. Many films were up 40-80% in that same time frame. Beating The Dark Knight domestically is no longer looking like a sure thing.

Fantastic Beasts had a great holiday. It will definitely pass Doctor Strange domestically now. Worldwide total is at $777M.

Assassins Creed will pass Warcraft domestically and become one of the top 10 video game films of all time! Resounding success /Michael Patcher

Moana is at $400M worldwide. It should end up somewhere over $500M but it looks like overseas audiences werent in love with the film.

Sing is at $278M worldwide with Italy, France, UK, Russia, and Japan left to open this month (and March for Japan).

$775M for Rogue One worldwide. China opens next weekend. Given that TFA wad at $1.5B by this point (also with China left to open), Civil War will keep the worldwide crown.
Click to expand...

I'm surprised foreign audiences didn't like Moana...

kswiston said:
The combined production cost of this year's 4 major video game movies was just shy of $400M. The combined domestic take for those 4 films will end up being $215-225M.
Click to expand...

Yikes
 
S

Sinsem

Member
El Topo said:
Those overseas numbers for Moana are just sad. I assume some of it is due to the weak European currencies, but it's still disappointing.
Click to expand...

Right now in France, it's the second biggest movie of the year in tickets sold, right behind Zootopia.
It will likely pass it this week, and finish 1st or 2nd overall depending on how well rogue one hold.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Sinsem said:
Right now in France, it's the second biggest movie of the year in tickets sold, right behind Zootopia.
It will likely pass it this week, and finish 1st or 2nd overall depending on how well rogue one hold.
Click to expand...

France is the biggest territory for the film. France also had a pretty mediocre year for box office (EDIT: In terms of the Hollywood blockbusters anyhow).
 
S

Sinsem

Member
kswiston said:
France is the biggest territory for the film. France also had a pretty mediocre year for box office (EDIT: In terms of the Hollywood blockbusters anyhow).
Click to expand...

Most of the big french comedy sequels underpeform in 2016. And yeah, there was nothing big coming from Hollywood either. But surpinsingly, it's been a really good year numbers wise. Admissions are up. It's the biggest year since 2011 even...

We do love our disney movies (after all, we're the only ones who went to see The Princess and the Frog) so Moana & Zootopia performances are no surprises. But pretty much everything else underperformed.

Dory is behind The Secret Life of Pets ans Ice Age (and Ice Age is way down compared to the previous ones). The biggest superhero movie of the year is Deadpool (it didn't help that the best superhero movie of the year was BvS too).

RO and Fantastic Beasts are the only blockbusters doing the numbers I think everyone was hoping for.
 
J

JimmyRustler

Member
Cheebo said:
Are you implying Rogue One didn't do well as well as it could have? It is going to finish with 550-600 domestically which vastly overperformed almost every single high end prediction for the film. That is an absolutely ungodly high number for a spin-off film. If anything it implies Episode 8 will be even bigger than some expected.
Click to expand...
No, if anything I am implying that Episode VII did better than it should have. Quality wise I'd rather see their numbers swapped.

GSG Flash said:
Right... GAF hyperbole rearing it's ugly head again.

I, and many(most?) others, liked TFA more than R1(which I still liked). TFA was also a huge comeback for the series after more than a decade of absence, and it had the stars of the old movies returning, and it is definitely a more marketable and family friendly movie than R1. So it's not really a surprise that R1 doesn't measure up to TFA in the box office.

Don't let the GAF echo chamber distort your view of the popular opinions of these two movies.
Click to expand...
It's not GAF hyperbole. I liked Rogue One a lot better and so did everyone I saw it with - and that is 8 people.

Seeing the drop in box office just made me wonder if Episode VII didn't maybe live too much on the hype and the series is now back to "normal" high numbers. Just curious to see if any of the coming Star Wars movies will be anywhere near the 2 billion mark worldwide.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
TheExorzist said:
No, if anything I am implying that Episode VII did better than it should have. Quality wise I'd rather see their numbers swapped.


It's not GAF hyperbole. I liked Rogue One a lot better and so did everyone I saw it with - and that is 8 people.

Seeing the drop in box office just made me wonder if Episode VII didn't maybe live too much on the hype and the series is now back to "normal" high numbers. Just curious to see if any of the coming Star Wars movies will be anywhere near the 2 billion mark worldwide.
Click to expand...

You are acting like this should be performing like TFA because you and your friends liked it better, which makes no sense. It has nothing to do with perceived quality. This is a spin-off. And performed beyond what was reasonably expected for a spin-off film.

Claiming there is a drop off and thus less interest is like claiming there is a drop off in interest of Marvel movies because Doctor Strange didn't do as well as the Avengers movies. Rogue One's relationship with the saga films is what films like Doctor Strange & Ant Man are to the Avengers sort of films.

This was a spin-off, TFA was a numbered saga film. The saga films are far more important and generate the most attention and box office numbers. The fact you liked it better doesn't mean it is going to still be seen as significant as a saga movie and generate the same sort of numbers. A lot of people liked Ant Man and Doctor Strange more than Age of Ultron, didn't mean they could ever do as well as Ultron.
 
E

El Topo

Member
Sinsem said:
Right now in France, it's the second biggest movie of the year in tickets sold, right behind Zootopia.
It will likely pass it this week, and finish 1st or 2nd overall depending on how well rogue one hold.
Click to expand...

That's nice, but if you look e.g. at UK or Germany, the movie is definitely underperforming there (compared e.g. to Zootopia or Big Hero Six). Moana's first week was behind Sing's third week in Germany.

Edit:
Seems like a really weak year for Germany as a whole at first glance actually.

Edit 2:
Seems like a really, really weak year at second glance.
 
S

SpaceWolf

Banned
Really random question, but is it likely we're going to get a Star Trek 4 considering how Star Trek: Beyond proved to be a disappointment at the box office?
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
SpaceWolf said:
Really random question, but is it likely we're going to get a Star Trek 4 considering how Star Trek: Beyond proved to be a disappointment at the box office?
Click to expand...

It was their highest grossing movie of the year. It's also one of the only things they have left. I can see them banking on the positive WOM for Beyond helping the next one do a lot better.

Cheebo said:
Star Trek the brand might be worth it, but I imagine the budget would take a big cut.
Click to expand...

No more location shooting in Dubai.
 
B

broncobuster

Banned
I'm interested to see if they'll go for an obvious pop culture hook with the next Star Trek. Be it a Klingon centric story, The Borg, Kirk fighting Spock, building towards TNG; something silly along those lines.
 
S

Schlorgan

Member
broncobuster said:
I'm interested to see if they'll go for an obvious pop culture hook with the next Star Trek. Be it a Klingon centric story, The Borg, Kirk fighting Spock, building towards TNG; something silly along those lines.
Click to expand...

It'll be about Kirk and Thor going back to 1990's Earth to rescue a pair of camels for them to ride on to fight off an invading alien force.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Passengers isn't going to end up near the disaster I thought it might be once those reviews hit. Granted its not going to be a success story, and more than likely lose money but its going to avoid being a massive bomb
 
M

Meier

Member
kswiston said:
The combined production cost of this year's 4 major video game movies was just shy of $400M. The combined domestic take for those 4 films will end up being $215-225M.
Click to expand...

That's sort of a weird thing to compare though as it only tells part of the story. Assassin's Creed will probably end up making $60-70m domestically and at least double that overseas. It's surely not what they were hoping for but with home video, selling to HBO, etc., it'll come out as a wash which frankly isn't that bad. Ratchet and Clank was a huge bomb but I have no clue why anyone had any expectations for success with it.
 
TDLink

TDLink

Member
Abounder said:
Rogue One is doing so much better than the last prequel spinoff, from $35m to half a billion dom (and goes to show how weak the Star Wars brand can be in the wrong hands) :




Thank the maker for Kathleen Kennedy, she is the chosen one
Click to expand...

Let's not pretend that you can compare the two. The Clone Wars was not marketed as a full fledged big Star Wars film. It was animated with a weird style and clearly aimed at children specifically. It also was just a TV pilot they ended up deciding to show in theatres only a few months prior.

It's a miracle the TV show that followed it ended up becoming so great.
 
M

Meier

Member
El Topo said:
Those overseas numbers for Moana are just sad. I assume some of it is due to the weak European currencies, but it's still disappointing.
Click to expand...

I haven't seen it yet (my wife has no interest in animated films so I usually have to wait until they're out on video), but that is definitely shockingly low given how successful other big animated films have been recently. You'd expect it to do about double or at least 1.5x the domestic take. I wonder what has caused such a huge disconnect? It does kind of drive home the unfortunate viewpoint that if you don't have white people as your primary characters, you're going to take a hit at the BO.
 
L

Litan

Member
Meier said:
I haven't seen it yet (my wife has no interest in animated films so I usually have to wait until they're out on video), but that is definitely shockingly low given how successful other big animated films have been recently. You'd expect it to do about double or at least 1.5x the domestic take. I wonder what has caused such a huge disconnect? It does kind of drive home the unfortunate viewpoint that if you don't have white people as your primary characters, you're going to take a hit at the BO.
Click to expand...
So Black Panther is doomed? Fuck...
 
G

GSG Flash

Nobody ruins my family vacation but me...and maybe the boy!
TheExorzist said:
It's not GAF hyperbole. I liked Rogue One a lot better and so did everyone I saw it with - and that is 8 people.

Seeing the drop in box office just made me wonder if Episode VII didn't maybe live too much on the hype and the series is now back to "normal" high numbers. Just curious to see if any of the coming Star Wars movies will be anywhere near the 2 billion mark worldwide.
Click to expand...

It is hyperbole when you claim that a movie is "clearly better" as a fact based off the opinion of you and your friends. Me and my family all liked TFA more and none of my friends are interested in watching R1(when they all watched and loved TFA), so TFA must "clearly" be better, right?

And as Cheebo said, TFA was a mainline Star Wars that was released to massive fan fare and overwhelmingly positive critical reception more than a decade after the last mainline movie. In comparison, R1 is a side story, which most reviewers liked but not as many as that liked TFA, that released a year after the last SW movie. It's no surprise that it's not doing as well.
 
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