WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
There's no way Pirates 5 doesn't tank, right? Then again, I said the same for 4 and what the fuck.
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Wkd BO 123016-010216 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up
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BronsonLee
Member
Could totally see it hitting a billy again
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It will hit $2B.
The Orlando Bloom effect!
The Orlando Bloom effect!
I'm saying $650-750M for Pirates 5. I wouldn't be all that surprised if it's lower, but I think the Chinese gross will be solid.
Avatar was mostly digital, so I doubt it cost as much as Pirates 4. Avatar made so much money that they could have boasted about a $500M budget, and it still would have been a huge success. As such, I doubt the production budget was all that much higher than the reported $240M.
The 3D filming tech developed in the decade prior to Avatar probably isn't included, but Cameron's been doing stuff like that as side projects for awhile now.
Avatar was mostly digital, so I doubt it cost as much as Pirates 4. Avatar made so much money that they could have boasted about a $500M budget, and it still would have been a huge success. As such, I doubt the production budget was all that much higher than the reported $240M.
The 3D filming tech developed in the decade prior to Avatar probably isn't included, but Cameron's been doing stuff like that as side projects for awhile now.
Never doubt Kon-Tiki Hemlers
So now that Rogue One has a lock on the Domestic Crown, and Civil War more or less has a lock on the Worldwide Crown (China pending), I went back and took a look through our earlier predictions thread.
One I ran 3 months ago with no completely right guesses: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1288085&highlight=
3N16MA's thread from the beginning of the year. He didn't specify if people were guessing worldwide grosses or domestic grosses, so there's ambiguity to hide behind, but most people were off base. I haven't made my way through all of the pre-BvS release posts yet though.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1192721
One of my favourite in the early posts though:
Said at a point in time where Avengers, Age of Ultron, and Iron Man 3 were the 5th, 7th, and 10th biggest films of all time worldwide, with the 7th, 8th, and 12th biggest overseas grosses of all time. Definitely a US only thing!
Unpopular Civil War ended up virtually unwatched at 12th of all time worldwide and a terrible 16th of all time overseas.
EDIT:
And because I don't pretend to get everything right, my statements:
R1 was #1. Civil War and BvS weren't much of a toss up. Civil War opened higher.
Fantastic Beasts will finish close to or just over $800M, and the domestic total was indeed not all that large ($240M maybe). Lol to BvS over $1B.
One I ran 3 months ago with no completely right guesses: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1288085&highlight=
3N16MA's thread from the beginning of the year. He didn't specify if people were guessing worldwide grosses or domestic grosses, so there's ambiguity to hide behind, but most people were off base. I haven't made my way through all of the pre-BvS release posts yet though.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1192721
One of my favourite in the early posts though:
Said at a point in time where Avengers, Age of Ultron, and Iron Man 3 were the 5th, 7th, and 10th biggest films of all time worldwide, with the 7th, 8th, and 12th biggest overseas grosses of all time. Definitely a US only thing!
Unpopular Civil War ended up virtually unwatched at 12th of all time worldwide and a terrible 16th of all time overseas.
EDIT:
And because I don't pretend to get everything right, my statements:
R1 was #1. Civil War and BvS weren't much of a toss up. Civil War opened higher.
Fantastic Beasts will finish close to or just over $800M, and the domestic total was indeed not all that large ($240M maybe). Lol to BvS over $1B.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Sibersk Esto
Banned
I thought it was a step down from Skyfall, cinematography wise.
This thread is so embarrassing in hindsight.
The only correct prediction came through everyone ignoring X-Men Apocalypse in their bets.
From that predictions thread:
That's from March.
I was wrong on Civil War > Iron Man 3, though. Still can't believe that. stupid masses, stop being stupid. Needed more Spidey in the marketing!
So I'm thinking Star Wars hype is at an all time high and Rogue One will end up on top.
Rogue One > Civil War > Batman v Superman
BvS will have bad legs because I have a feeling it will review poorly and word of mouth will be negative
Civil War will be the complete opposite. 90%+ on RT, everyone losing their shit over Spider-Man, Spidey in teasers on TV... It's going to be nuts.
But Rogue One will just dominate in the Winter like TFA just did and come out on top. Once the Vader teasing begins... oh man.
That's from March.
I was wrong on Civil War > Iron Man 3, though. Still can't believe that. stupid masses, stop being stupid. Needed more Spidey in the marketing!
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Wasn't that only because of exchange rates though? IIRC if you adjust either to the other's current rates Civil War wins.
Candeldandel
Member
How has the title not been changed to 1-2-17 yet?? It's driving me up the friggin' wall! I really don't want to redo last year
Iron Man 3 would have earned about $1.04B WW if adjusted to December exchange rates. If you want to adjust for exchange and ticket inflation, it would be sitting at aroun $1.075B
Civil War with the same exchange rate adjustment would be sitting at $1.11B. Mostly because the Chinese Yuan has depreciated since May.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Exchange rates don't account for it coming in lower than IM3 in the states (albeit barely).
It even had worse legs than IM3, which I can only explain by assuming that the number of casual Marvel viewers has shrunk.
It even had worse legs than IM3, which I can only explain by assuming that the number of casual Marvel viewers has shrunk.
Pace isn't as quick and the heroes keep yelling at each other.
Iron Man 3 was also riding the Avengers high. I think the same thing is going to end up being true for Rogue One in the US. I doubt every anthology film from here on out breaks $500M domestic.
BronsonLee
Member
That thread kswiss posted is memorable because of disco's destructive betrayal towards me
Also I don't think I made a prediction again
Also I don't think I made a prediction again
Also I don't think I'll make a prediction again.
or
Also I don't think I made a prediction.
Pick one.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
That's CRAZY.
There's a 20 minute sidequest in IM3 where Tony Stark builds a potato gun for a brat kid.
I would think not, especially if the Boba Fett film actually happens. I know he's supposedly super popular, but that doesn't even scream $300M to me.
BronsonLee
Member
And kids would love to be in that position, doesn't drag it down a bit for them.
Your box office predictions are never wrong because they don't exist.
broncobuster
Banned
Only part of my predictions I feel dead wrong about is Independence Day 2 possibly catching on. I blame Jurassic World for that false confidence in '90s nostalgia.
Well, money wise basically every guess is overestimated by $300 thousand. The order is about the same as reality.
Well, money wise basically every guess is overestimated by $300 thousand. The order is about the same as reality.
Discotheque
Banned
I was always gonna turn my back on family
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm going to have to ask for your boxofficeGAF card.
BronsonLee
Member
The only way to win is not to play!
*grumbles something about wanting a free chicken sub*
Disco
Dom
NOOOOOO
Dash_Riprock
Member
Depends if we hear anything more regarding Depp's alleged wife-beating.
Though Alice 2 bombing as hard as it did probably has Disney worried.
Could do a 2017 edition but with Episode VIII dropping at the end of the year it's pretty much a lock to top everything.
Perhaps a top 3 would be better.
hodayathink
Member
Both parties seem to be working hard to keep that story out of the news (the only thing I've heard about it in the past 6 months is people trying to say she hadn't donated the money, and an anti-domestic abuse thing where she never actually mentions him by name). I think, at this point, Pirates will stand or fall on it's own quality, and Depp has enough bombs over the past few years that you can attribute his bad box office to that instead of his personal issues.
AdventureRacing
Member
I think it's a pretty different situation. Alice was a one of success buoyed by the 3D boom. Pirates has now had 4 successful movies despite the quality of the last 2 instalments. I don't think 5 will come close to the billion mark but it won't be an Alice style collapse IMO.
It's crazy that 2016 was the 50th Anniversary of Star Trek and Paramount did nothing to celebrate that and help cross promote Star Trek Beyond. You can get a ton of free publicity for the 50th anniversary of a franchise.
You can't compare a TV show to a movie franchise 1:1, but Doctor Who turned their 50th Anniversary episode into an event (which is a little harder to do with a movie like Beyond but still could be done). The BBC did a lot of great things to cross promote it, like making a drama about the creation of Doctor Who (something that would be perfect for Star Trek) and a funny web movie about 3 of the former Doctors trying to get on the 50th anniversary episode with tons of cameos from people associated with the show past and present.
Beyond had nothing but some shitty, generic trailers.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
yeah... whoever they put in charge of marketing campaigns on that one (or perhaps the entire company) should probably be made to walk the plank.
Can Crusher
Banned
Rogue One coming way lower than I expected (WW). Disney needs to be careful, it's not the mcu.
how many bombs does depp have at this point? even before the wife beating stuff came about.
I think general audiences are just sick of his shit. his name is like box office poison at this point. it's crazy.
Lifejumper
Member
What did you expect from a spin off? 1 billion WW is pretty good.
Huh? It opens in China on Friday and doing a billion. That has to be more then they were expecting.
Depp hasn't had a clear hit since the last Pirates film. Everything since has ranged from "Bomb of the year competitor" to "disappointing but not a bomb".
They should've advertise the shit out of Vader. Sure people will complain they were lied to after, but the movie would be making +100 million domestic easy.
I think that Domestic is exceeding expectations, while overseas is matching or underperforming expectations depending on the territory. Rogue One is still a $200M tentpole, so it's not like they would have been happy with $500-600M WW.
Can Crusher
Banned
Oh come on. It's a spin off for us, for the audience at large it's a Star Wars movie. The big drop off suggests TFA's number was super inflated due to hype, and interest in the franchise has cooled off a bit.
I'm curious to see what VIII's numbers will be.
I think that Ep VIII will easily clear $1.5B WW. I do expect it to drop from TFA, especially in territories like Japan which tend to be a bit lukewarm on immediate sequels.
Nah. That would be a simplified conclusion. I'm sure Disney is going to take a close look at Moana/Vaiana (and e.g. The Good Dinosaur) to see why exactly things went wrong.
We've also seen movies perform disappointingly before, e.g. Brave didn't exactly set the world on fire either and The Good Dinosaur bombed.
No. I will not rule out that it *might* suffer in international markets, but I doubt (or at least hope) it won't be severe. Fast&Furious for example does extremely well internationally.
I will admit though that I'm a bit worried.
hodayathink
Member
Fast & Furious has a multi-cultural cast, while Black Panther is looking to be a primarily black one. I do think that'll make a difference, we'll just have to wait and see how big that is.
BronsonLee
Member
That seems high on both
Gentleman Jack
Member
I would cut your WW gross expectations by about a third. I don't see it doing SS numbers, even if I expect it to review much better.
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