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Wkd Box Office 01•01-03•16 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record

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B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Branduil said:
I wonder how much that is in today's money. It has to be close to $250 million for each right?
Click to expand...

According to BOM, it's 67 mil OW adjusted, and 259 domestic. Adjusted, looks like it's #3 all-time January OW, behind American Sniper

The Special Edition was ranked #8 in 1997's domestic top 10.
 
S

Syf

Banned
Being a hopeless WoW nerd, I hope Warcraft does well enough for a sequel even though I don't think it looks very good.
 
C

Come to Butt-Head

Banned
I'd be more interested in the movie if it was full CGI done by the team at Blizzard who do the cinematics.

Of course, it takes them like half a year to do those cinematics, and they're only a couple minutes long, so it's pretty much impossible.
 
D

Dalek

Member
Charles Foster Kane said:
Warcraft looks like pure garbage.

So uninteresting.
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I've seen that trailer 3 times in front of Star Wars now and every time it gets zero response from the audience. I swear it looks like one of those fake trailers where someone's cellphone goes off and you find out it's a PSA.
 
M

Mister Wilhelm

Member
Xenus said:
I don't even understand.. Why is everybody singing Nirvana anyways....
Click to expand...

I haven't seen the movie, but from what I understand there is some kind of
time parallel thingy in the movie's universe, and it means that the people there were from different periods, so someone came to Neverland from the 90's and sang that song and Blackbeard liked it so much it became an anthem of sorts.
 
B

Branduil

Member
TFA apparently had a big third weekend in Japan, it actually increased 14% over its second weekend. It's up to $53 million now.
 
D

DeathyBoy

Banned
Xenus said:
I don't even understand.. Why is everybody singing Nirvana anyways....
Click to expand...

Out of film? They did rehearsals, someone started singing it, and they incorporated it into the film.

In film? Rule of awesome/anachronism/parallel worlds.

I like it myself. It's not played as camp, more as a weird sort of cult approach. I was worried they'd dance and make it obviously goofy, instead of Blackbeard appropriating something and using it as a weapon to force conformity. Which seems in keeping with the song.
 
H

HK-47

Oh, bitch bitch bitch.
Discotheque said:
that one two punch of john carter and tomorrowland got disney to pull their best pixar directors back into the animation jail.
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Well their animated pictures are better than anything Disney has done with live action so I dont feel too bad.
 
N

numble

Member
Updated for today:

Here are comparisons of China presales from a specific pre-order site, Gewara. Obviously it only represents a small percentage of sales, but it seems they like to use it for tracking purposes. It is not a good predictor, as you can see, but it can still be fun to follow:

My sources for the numbers of the other movies are here:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191025740&postcount=2670

Minions (final gross - $68,490,000)
02.09.2015 Beijing time 00:10 -- Minions - 673 (8 days before premier)
03.09.2015 Beijing time 00:01 -- Minions - 1033
04.09.2015 Beijing time 00:10 -- Minions - 1972
07.09.2015 Beijing time 00:01 -- Minions - 4457
08.09.2015 Beijing time 01:30 -- Minions - 6780
09.09.2015 Beijing time 00:50 -- Minions - 11187
10.09.2015 Beijing time 00:01 -- Minions - 16382
11.09.2015 Beijing time 00:30 -- Minions - 30320
12.09.2015 Beijing time 00:01 -- Minions - 57328 (Premier)

Jurassic World (final gross - $228,740,000)
06.06.2015 Beijing time 00:20 -- JW - 6889 (4 days before premier)
07.06.2015 Beijing time 18:20 -- JW - 10027
08.06.2015 Beijing time 00:05 -- JW - 31073
09.06.2015 Beijing time 00:00 -- JW - 73115
10.06.2015 Beijing time 00:00 -- JW - 184599 (Premier)

Furious 7 (final gross - $390,910,000)
2015-04-01 10:45 - 15 (11 days before premier)
2015-04-02 08:39 -139
2015-04-03 07:57 - 856
2015-04-04 08:11 - 4,166
2015-04-05 08:03 - 9,352
2015-04-06 18:11 - 22,717
2015-04-07 18:40 - 81,588 (5 days before premier)
2015-04-08 07:25 -101,494
2015-04-09 00:58 -141,564
2015-04-10 00:45 -193,250
2015-04-11 23:36 - 472,900
2015-04-12 (Premier)

Age of Ultron (final gross - $240,110,000)
05-05 22:20 62,441 (6 days before premier)
05-06 16:20 74,056 (5 days before premier)
05-07 13:20 106,817 (4 days before premier)
05-08 23:00 170,455
05-09 14:00 201,098
05-10 22:31 250,953
05-11 (Premier)

TFA:
http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330
12-30 5,936 (10 days before premier)
12-31 6 pm 10,629 (9 days before premier)
01-01 9 pm 21,252 (8 days before premier)
01-02 10:30 pm 28,715 (7 days before premier)
01-03 9:30 pm 38,139 (6 days before premier)
01-04 5 pm 46,761 (5 days before premier)
01-05 10:30 pm 71,486 (4 days before premier)
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Branduil said:
This new "no one has ever cared about #1 domestic before" talking point is weird, especially since it's so easy to disprove.

Virtually no one actually cared about worldwide totals prior to Titanic.
Click to expand...

For good reason, WW is a much fuzzier number with a lot of variables, like the exchange rate.

WW # of tickets sold would be much more interesting, IMHO.
 
K

KooopaKid

Banned
Ignatz Mouse said:
For good reason, WW is a much fuzzier number with a lot of variables, like the exchange rate.

WW # of tickets sold would be much more interesting, IMHO.
Click to expand...

Yeah, # of tickets should be the only metric. Both Avatar and Titanic would beat TFA in that scenario too anyway.
 
N

numble

Member
KooopaKid said:
Yeah, # of tickets should be the only metric. Both Avatar and Titanic would beat TFA in that scenario too anyway.
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Is it obvious that Avatar would beat TFA in that scenario? It seems like Avatar had a higher average ticket price given that it sold more tickets in premium formats and (for overseas) the dollar was weaker in that period.
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
kswiston said:
The Force Awakens will end its run about 30 million admissions behind Titanic domestically. Average ticket price for TFA is likely around the $10 mark. It made 100m domestic from IMAX alone. Dont put too much stock in Mojos adjusted list.

It will still be the most attended film since Titanic, and the second most attended film in the last 30 years.
Click to expand...
Very interesting. I am certainly guilty of merely following the boxoffice mojo numbers.

What site(s) list admission counts?
 
E

Eidan

Member
kswiston said:
The Force Awakens will end its run about 30 million admissions behind Titanic domestically. Average ticket price for TFA is likely around the $10 mark. It made 100m domestic from IMAX alone. Dont put too much stock in Mojos adjusted list.

It will still be the most attended film since Titanic, and the second most attended film in the last 30 years.
Click to expand...

Dammit kswiston, THIS is the kind of information I want. How do you come up with these figures? I feel like the Mojo adjusted list became worthless after 3D became a bigger part of grosses. I want to know what YOUR list of most attended films looks like.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Eidan said:
Dammit kswiston, THIS is the kind of information I want. How do you come up with these figures? I feel like the Mojo adjusted list became worthless after 3D became a bigger part of grosses. I want to know what YOUR list of most attended films looks like.
Click to expand...

Just a rough estimate based on the info we have. We know that IMAX is currently sitting at over 13%, up from 12% opening weekend. I would imagine that other large premium formats are at least constant with the 7% share they had opening weekend. IMAX screens will be lost on Jan 14th I believe, so the average will go down, but we could probably guess that the final IMAX + PLF share of the domestic gross will be around 17%.

Regular 3D share of the opening weekend gross was 28%. That will drop a bit as well, so let's say it finishes with 25%. That gives 2D a 58% share of the gross.

Mojo is listing the average ticket price going into the new year as $8.66. IMAX and 3D boost that some, so lets say an average 2D ticket is around $8.25 for the sake of argument. Average 3D premium is somewhere between $2.5-$3, making the 3D ticket average around $11. We'll say IMAX and PLF average $15 a ticket (it's probably a bit higher, since some of those formats are expensive).

If, TFA hits $1B, you get roughly $580M from 2D, $250M from 3D, and $170M from IMAX/PLF.

Dividing that by ticket price, you get 70.3M from 2D, 22.7M from 3D, and 11.3M from IMAX/PLF. That's 104.3M tickets. Average ticket price would be around $9.60.

The actual number might end up being 5% or so in either direction, but that's the right general ballpark (assuming $1B domestic).

Mojo estimates Titanic's initial run at 128M tickets. Given the lack of ticket premiums back in 1997/1998, that's probably pretty accurate. The 3D re-release added another 4-5M to the total (Mojo estimates 7M, but all of those tickets had premiums, so that isn't right).


Getting an accurate list of the most attended films of all time is impossible, since the record keeping for old films just isn't there. As you can see above, we have to resort to some educated guesswork even for the films we have a ton of data on.

If you go back to our Gone with the Wind conversation earlier in this thread, you can see that older films took many years to rack up their impressive totals (which Mojo often over-adjusts). There's a reason why Jaws was considered the first blockbuster in history. Making $50M in about a month (equivalent to around $200M now) was something that had never come close to happening before. Now that happens close to 10 times a year.


If we just look at initial runs, and ignore re-releases (which were ubiquitous before the 1990s, but are uncommon now), The Force Awakens will probably end up as #3 of all time.
 
W

wachie

Member
How much were approx admissions for Avatar which had an unusually large 3D share as well as The Dark Knight which had IMAX but no 3D.

I would figure Avengers and The Dark Knight to be quite close.
 
E

Eidan

Member
kswiston said:
Just a rough estimate based on the info we have. We know that IMAX is currently sitting at over 13%, up from 12% opening weekend. I would imagine that other large premium formats are at least constant with the 7% share they had opening weekend. IMAX screens will be lost on Jan 14th I believe, so the average will go down, but we could probably guess that the final IMAX + PLF share of the domestic gross will be around 17%.

Regular 3D share of the opening weekend gross was 28%. That will drop a bit as well, so let's say it finishes with 25%. That gives 2D a 58% share of the gross.

Mojo is listing the average ticket price going into the new year as $8.66. IMAX and 3D boost that some, so lets say an average 2D ticket is around $8.25 for the sake of argument. Average 3D premium is somewhere between $2.5-$3, making the 3D ticket average around $11. We'll say IMAX and PLF average $15 a ticket (it's probably a bit higher, since some of those formats are expensive).

If, TFA hits $1B, you get roughly $580M from 2D, $250M from 3D, and $170M from IMAX/PLF.

Dividing that by ticket price, you get 70.3M from 2D, 22.7M from 3D, and 11.3M from IMAX/PLF. That's 104.3M tickets. Average ticket price would be around $9.60.

The actual number might end up being 5% or so in either direction, but that's the right general ballpark (assuming $1B domestic).

Mojo estimates Titanic's initial run at 128M tickets. Given the lack of ticket premiums back in 1997/1998, that's probably pretty accurate. The 3D re-release added another 4-5M to the total (Mojo estimates 7M, but all of those tickets had premiums, so that isn't right).


Getting an accurate list of the most attended films of all time is impossible, since the record keeping for old films just isn't there. As you can see above, we have to resort to some educated guesswork even for the films we have a ton of data on.

If you go back to our Gone with the Wind conversation earlier in this thread, you can see that older films took many years to rack up their impressive totals (which Mojo often over-adjusts). There's a reason why Jaws was considered the first blockbuster in history. Making $50M in about a month (equivalent to around $200M now) was something that had never come close to happening before. Now that happens close to 10 times a year.


If we just look at initial runs, and ignore re-releases (which were ubiquitous before the 1990s, but are uncommon now), The Force Awakens will probably end up as #3 of all time.
Click to expand...

All logical guesswork. What was the 3D, IMAX, 2D breakdown for Avatar?
 
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