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Wkd Box Office 01•01-03•16 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record

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If you haven't figured it out by now maybe you need another feline asswhooping!

Nah b, I'm ready for you this time

1264505362_cat-fight.gif
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
BvS. j
ust kidding


Back me up! I saw Titanic 3 times.

Still my favorite film of all time because of the care and detail Cameron spent re-creating the events of that night and the days before it. I saw it once in theaters during its original run (I was 10) and 3 times during the 3D re-release. I also own like... 6-7 copies on home video over the different versions and formats over the year.
 

wachie

Member
Still my favorite film of all time because of the care and detail Cameron spent re-creating the events of that night and the days before it. I saw it once in theaters during its original run (I was 10) and 3 times during the 3D re-release. I also own like... 6-7 copies on home video over the different versions and formats over the year.
Kagari, its time you and I had a talk - intervention time.

Seriously I own maybe 2 versions, I get rid of the CD/DVD stuff as soon as its legacy.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Kagari, its time you and I had a talk - intervention time.

Seriously I own maybe 2 versions, I get rid of the CD/DVD stuff as soon as its legacy.

I still have my VHS copies! Only the remaining ones I kept along with the Star Wars trilogy THX editions.
 

odiin

My Apartment, or the 120 Screenings of Salo


A movie on top (since 99) that is atleast decent.

3 of the top 10 are Star Wars films, and half of the top 10 are Disney* films. Not bad.


*Disney may not have owned Star Wars and Phantom Menace when they actually came out, but they do now.
So what I told you is true, from a certain point of view.
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
3 of the top 10 are Star Wars films, and half of the top 10 are Disney* films. Not bad.


*Disney may not have owned Star Wars and Phantom Menace when they actually came out, but they do now.
So what I told you is true, from a certain point of view.

They don't own the rights to a new hope
 

John Dunbar

correct about everything
It's certainly hard to imagine TFA's record being broken any time soon. How many movies in the next 5 years will even pass Avatar? Other than more Star Wars movies, I can't think of anything that probably has a realistic chance.

considering that jurassic world got almost within 100 million this year and star wars passed it the same year, i don't think avatar's domestic gross is out of reach the same way than say titanic was for so many years. worldwide, especially with the current currency rates, avatar's worldwide gross is probably a pipe dream for a long time though.
 

Branduil

Member
considering that jurassic world got almost within 100 million this year and star wars passed it the same year, i don't think avatar's domestic gross is out of reach the same way than say titanic was for so many years. worldwide, especially with the current currency rates, avatar's worldwide gross is probably a pipe dream for a long time though.
I think one thing we've learned this year, though, is that franchises like JP and Star Wars are still bigger at the box office than Superhero films. What franchise do you see surpassing Avatar other than future SW films? A black swan film seems more likely.
 

Well, now that this is out the way, congrats to the Walt Disney Company.

Now I'm hitting the snooze button on this thread until credible talk about $2.7 happens or Ride Along 2/13 Hours dethrones SW7 at #1.

Which ever happens first.

Until then, BronsonLee, you have the wheel, man.
 
It's a shame we will never know the number of tickets sold. Why isn't it counted?
It's the only worthwhile metric for popularity.

This isn't (strictly) a popularity contest, studios are interested in money.

Box office and ticket sales are also traditionally reported in terms of gross because of the wide range of ticket prices (this is more apparent in event and concert sales, which can range from below ten to hundreds of dollars).
 

kswiston

Member
Someone brought up the idea of looking at marketshares of films relative to their contemporaries as a way of judging popularity. This doesn't work all that well for older films that played for several years, but it works for things in the last 35 or so years.

Titanic netted about 9% of the total gross of all 1997 releases. E.T. was around 12% of the 1982 releases. Avatar was about 7% of the total gross for 2009 films. Jurassic Park was around the same for 1993 films. It's too early to tell with The Force Awakens, but it will probably end up with something between 8-9% of the gross for 2015 releases.

Obviously attendance has gone down over the last 35 years, so 8% of the gross today constitutes fewer people than 8% of the gross 35 years ago, but it's a pretty good indicator of relative popularity for the era.
 
Someone brought up the idea of looking at marketshares of films relative to their contemporaries as a way of judging popularity. This doesn't work all that well for older films that played for several years, but it works for things in the last 35 or so years.

Titanic netted about 9% of the total gross of all 1997 releases. E.T. was around 12% of the 1982 releases. Avatar was about 7% of the total gross for 2009 films. Jurassic Park was around the same for 1993 films. It's too early to tell with The Force Awakens, but it will probably end up with something between 8-9% of the gross for 2015 releases.

Obviously attendance has gone down over the last 35 years, so 8% of the gross today constitutes fewer people than 8% of the gross 35 years ago, but it's a pretty good indicator of relative popularity for the era.

That's a pretty solid idea, actually. Damn.

Also it's nuts that The Force Awakens is threatening a billion domestic and would only end up between 8-9% thanks to stuff like Furious 7, Avengers 2, and Jurassic World going apeshit.
 

kswiston

Member
Looks like I was wrong about Star Wars getting much of a boost in presales in its final day before the midnight release. It's 1pm in China and presales are now sitting at 336k on Gewara. Might hit 370k or so by the time the previews start.
 

kswiston

Member
That's still 100k under Furious 7, but it's about 100k over Ultron, right?

Yes, but the presales trend has increased since either of those, so we'll have to see how that translates into opening dollars. Still a good sign for those hoping for closer to $200M.

EDIT: Also, Ultron opened on Monday, so not directly comparable.
 
It's all completely nebulous to me, either way. I have like, zero expectations for that region, and no clear idea what it's going to make. I know LFL been pounding concrete like crazy trying to make this movie seem like a thing China really wants, but I have no idea how successful that actually was. Everything about it just seems like a total toss-up. Making like, 125 mil seems about as plausible to me as it making 350.
 

kswiston

Member
It's all completely nebulous to me, either way. I have like, zero expectations for that region, and no clear idea what it's going to make. I know LFL been pounding concrete like crazy trying to make this movie seem like a thing China really wants, but I have no idea how successful that actually was. Everything about it just seems like a total toss-up. Making like, 125 mil seems about as plausible to me as it making 350.

Disney and Lucasfilm are probably looking at the long game. They likely have 5 more Star Wars films by 2020 between the main trilogy and spin offs. Even if Star Wars isn't a top 10 hit in China this year, a solid performance will pay dividends going forward.

EDIT: I mean, X-Men went from $2M for Last Stand in 2006, to $40M for The Wolverine in 2013, to $115M for DOFP in 2014. Clearly rapid franchise growth is possible in China.
 
Absolutely. I think Rogue One is their bigger international gambit, honestly. If this thing doesn't do Furious 7 numbers, so what. At least now there's a baseline, something to work from. So when Rogue One rolls in next year, with Jiang Wen and Donnie Yen right up front as main Rogues, and (possibly/probably) Darth Vader in the mix?
 

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
I am really curious what the presales will be when it hits midnight... because holy shit that's a massive jump

Edit: just hit 350k

This could be passing Furious 7s presales if this pace keeps up
 

kswiston

Member
The China guys on Box Office Theory are telling me that across all the ticket selling sites, The Force Awakens is performing on par with what Terminator Genisys did at the same point. That made $26M first day. They are expecting upwards of $30M for Star Wars first day.

Better than things were looking yesterday I guess. With good, but typical Chinese legs, that would be about $170-190M.
 
So is TFA likely to hit $2 billion WW / pass Titanic or is there a good chance it'll finish under?

In the BO prediction thread, I said $1.9+ billion, though my US / int. split was more like 1/3rds / 2/3rds.
 

Sorcerer

Member
It's certainly hard to imagine TFA's record being broken any time soon. How many movies in the next 5 years will even pass Avatar? Other than more Star Wars movies, I can't think of anything that probably has a realistic chance.

I imagine at some point, Disney will completely rule the domestic top ten, between Avengers and Star Wars.
 

numble

Member
Looks like I was wrong about Star Wars getting much of a boost in presales in its final day before the midnight release. It's 1pm in China and presales are now sitting at 336k on Gewara. Might hit 370k or so by the time the previews start.

I don't think they do previews in the sense of the US. At least the theater near where I am in Beijing only will do a midnight showing and the alternate tracker (maoyan) lists midnight sales:
http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

I guess we can do a final day before tally:

Minions (final gross - $68,490,000)
12.09.2015 Beijing time 00:01 -- Minions - 57328 (Premier)

Jurassic World (final gross - $228,740,000)
09.06.2015 Beijing time 00:00 -- JW - 73115 (1 day before premier)
10.06.2015 Beijing time 00:00 -- JW - 184599 (Premier)

Furious 7 (final gross - $390,910,000)
2015-04-11 23:36 - 472,900 (24 minutes before premier)
2015-04-12 (Premier)

Age of Ultron (final gross - $240,110,000)
05-10 22:31 250,953 (1.5 hours before premier)
05-11 (Premier)

TFA:
http://www.gewara.com/movie/224406330
1 pm ~336k (10 hours before premier)
2 pm 370,094 (9 hours before premier)
3 pm 405,750 (8 hours before premier)
 

numble

Member
Is there a way to see the presales on a mobile device? It's not showing up for me.

You need to have it show the Desktop site--if you are on the latest iPhone for instance, holding down the refresh button in the address bar will give you the option.

It does not seem to be updating in real-time, but I am not sure the intervals for the updates.
 
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