We get daily results.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd Box Office 0101-0316 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
- Status
We get daily results.
The issue is TFA is trending downward moreso than Avatar was, which could be due to how large it's weekends have been relative to the other... but we don't know.
I think $950m is the cap
$880-930m being the more realistic range
hodayathink
Member
Sam takes that back as soon as Civil War comes out, as long as he's in it. And the only way Harrison gets it back is if Blade Runner 2 is a huge hit (is he even in Blade Runner 2?).
And looking at that list, I don't see who passes Sam for #1 again as long as he's Nick Fury.
The only reason it's trending "more downward" is because it's coming from a higher place than Avatar was. These numbers are still pretty silly for a movie that's already been out for 3 weeks. The real question (and we're going to find out the answer this weekend and next week) is whether it's going to stay around Avatar's overall numbers, or if it will keep dropping at a higher percentage than Avatar did.
I think I'm going tonight. Can't wait!
BronsonLee
Member
Cameron gave Leo the Iggy, he's gonna take Star Wars down
#FollowTheIceberg
#FollowTheIceberg
True. The low end being a 50% drop would lower the likelihood of $1B domestic significantly.
Losing Imax next weekend could hurt a bit.
Yeah, but still, less than 50% would be a very promising drop for its legs.
$45 million would put it at $815 million. From that point, Jurassic World made almost $100 million more, so that would put the floor at over $900 million. And TFA has had significantly better legs than Jurassic World this entire time, so I would expect it to do more than that.
Avatar did $320 million after that point. TFA won't do that, but it only needs about 60% of that to get to a billion. Assuming it does $45 million this weekend.
No. I think we are just debating 950 vs 1b at this point.
Jurassic World did almost $100 million more coming off a $29 million weekend, so yeah, I think $900 million is a lock unless it completely collapses this weekend. And if that was going to happen we'd probably have seen it in the weekday numbers- instead it kept pace with Avatar almost exactly.
That's what I figured. Saw a post a few posts back saying 880-930 was expected and I just don't see that low.
I do expect higher part of the range... but there's always the chance it runs out of steam and faceplants
I agree that $900M is locked. However, forecasting towards $1B, it is important to remember that Jurassic World had its late legs through July and therefore enjoyed summer weekdays. Last week TFA was doing 2-3x the weekdays that Jurassic World was doing in its second week. This week, it was only up 5% over JW during the week. That will mute TFA's much stronger weekends somewhat.
Basically, The Force Awakens had 1.32x Jurassic World's first week, 1.74x its second week, and 1.45x its third week. If this weekend is $45M, we would be looking at under 1.4x for week 4 (projecting forward through the next set of weekdays).
$815M + the remainder of JW * 1.4 = $815M + $134.4M = $949.4M.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I do think it's fair to note the quality of the competition it will be facing, and not just the newness of it. That's pretty much the reason Winter legs tend to be so long, isn't it? That studios typically don't release all that many good movies widely in Jan/Feb.
That's plausible, I just expect TFA to have better holds than JW did weekend-to-weekend based on its performance so far. JW did have the advantage of summer weekdays, but it also had more competition. By week 5 its weekdays were only half the size of Avatar's regardless of summer. I don't expect TFA to keep pace with Avatar's weekdays, but JW weekdays with much better weekends seems possible.
If TFA does the high-end of the prediction range($50 million or better) I think a billion is pretty close to a lock.
I think TFA will have better legs than Jurassic World and hit $1B. I just don't think we can call a lock yet.
This January is stronger than typical though. I don't know about Jan 22nd, but the other three upcoming weekends will have $30M+ openers. It wasn't that long ago that $30M put you in the All-time top 5 for Jan openers.
Once the Marvel and DC factory get into full force, I think they will have to start launching comic films every winter to avoid overcrowding. We'll have to see how Deadpool does this year.
Part of my thinking is that if TFA looks to be headed to around $980 million or better with its natural legs, Disney will do whatever it takes to bump it up to that $1 billion milestone.
Anyway, we'll probably have a better idea of the probability after this weekend, so let's do this now:
This Film is Now the Ultimate Power in the Universe Club (TFA>$1bil)
-Branduil
I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing Club (TFA<$1bil)
Kanji Club (You guys will just bandwagon to whomever seems to be winning)
Anyway, we'll probably have a better idea of the probability after this weekend, so let's do this now:
This Film is Now the Ultimate Power in the Universe Club (TFA>$1bil)
-Branduil
I Find Your Lack of Faith Disturbing Club (TFA<$1bil)
Kanji Club (You guys will just bandwagon to whomever seems to be winning)
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yeah, we've definitely talked before about how the practice of "seasons" is likely on its way out in the next 5-10 years, if not even sooner.
edit: and even if I wanted to join KanjiKlub, if only for the way that dude says KanjiKlub, I think it's gonna hit a billion. Mostly because I look at those graphs K-Swiss plotted out earlier and I just can't imagine the film flattening out the the level it would need to in order to miss crossing that milestone.
BronsonLee
Member
GET BENT.
Kanji Club
It's funny how slow Hollywood is to react to these things. The Fast and Furious films have been cleaning up in April for 7 years now, but the month is still kind of slow. You have The Jungle Book in the third weekend of April and that Huntsman sequel in the fourth weekend, but it looks like studios have basically conceded 3 weeks to BvS.
EDIT: If I was asked to bet $5 on under/over $1B for The Force Awakens at this point, I would say over. So over.
EDIT2: Over Titanic WW too if we are going on record with projections. I just don't like saying something is locked until it actually is locked.
It's the old market inefficiencies problem. Summer is the best time to release a film... but EVERYONE knows summer is the best time, so is it really the best?
Conversely, January is the worst time to release a film... but EVERYONE knows January is the worst time, so is it really the worst?
There are certainly cases where an uncrowded out-of-season run results in a much better gross than during the crowded summer, and vice versa. Of course, a truly powerful franchise like Star Wars or Marvel can just release when they want and watch everyone else run to get out of the way.
Conversely, January is the worst time to release a film... but EVERYONE knows January is the worst time, so is it really the worst?
There are certainly cases where an uncrowded out-of-season run results in a much better gross than during the crowded summer, and vice versa. Of course, a truly powerful franchise like Star Wars or Marvel can just release when they want and watch everyone else run to get out of the way.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Your hesitancy and general conservative nature regarding predictions (especially for this film) has been duly noted, K-Swiss.
Come to Butt-Head
Banned
How much over Titanic, though?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
He's just being vigilant! I'm not clowning the man. I don't think I had it crossing 700 domestic, myself. And I thought that was an "optimistic appraisal of the situation."
But again, I'm looking at his charts, and I just don't know how this film goes as flat as it needs to in order to stop short of 1 billion. Maybe it happens, it definitely could. But if I was gonna bet on it, I'd bet that it crosses the line, be it just very long theatrical run (and there are a lot of exhibitors who won't mind just hanging on to Star Wars on a couple of screens over whatever other dreck is getting shoveled in February) or a re-release/re-expansion later specifically to try and get it over the line for the PR/marketing.
But again, I'm looking at his charts, and I just don't know how this film goes as flat as it needs to in order to stop short of 1 billion. Maybe it happens, it definitely could. But if I was gonna bet on it, I'd bet that it crosses the line, be it just very long theatrical run (and there are a lot of exhibitors who won't mind just hanging on to Star Wars on a couple of screens over whatever other dreck is getting shoveled in February) or a re-release/re-expansion later specifically to try and get it over the line for the PR/marketing.
Works more often than not. Crazy runs like this are an exception to the rule obviously.
I had domestic at $815M by the end of this weekend on the projection part of my line graph last Sunday, so I don't think I am underselling the film too much. Deadline's range would give $815-820M by Sunday. Within 6% of what I pegged this week to be.
I lowballed the international amount though. I went with $850M overseas + $50M China. China's looking like it will be closer to $65M (and even that is an educated guess until we see Saturday's number), and strong weekdays will probably lead to overseas (without China) being $865-870M by Sunday.
Jurassic World will go down on Saturday for sure.
It's true. If somebody had suggested a 1 bil prediction they would have been laughed out of the thread.
Except Cheebo who laughs with the benefit of hindsight at everyone who doubted this monstrosity
BronsonLee
Member
I didn't give any guesses before the movies were released but if I had I would have went
TFA
Ultron
JW
And no way would I have predicted TFA breaking records. Would have said it's going to do real good, but fall behind the first Avengers WW. As for JP I had no idea that would be so successful, but I thought it would do pretty good is all.
This last year has been really something.
I guessed TFA over Ultron back in April. I would have put JW last though, so that isn't saying much.
My prediction back in early December was $800M DOM/$2B WW. My overseas will be in the right ballpark. Domestic was a major lowball, even though I had it taking the domestic crown
Even Cheebo was holding himself back from $800M+ going into that final week. With maybe one exception, the only people guessing $1B+ were people who had no clue what they were talking about. You can tell by the fact that the OS half of their predictions were in the $2-4B range.
My prediction back in early December was $800M DOM/$2B WW. My overseas will be in the right ballpark. Domestic was a major lowball, even though I had it taking the domestic crown
Even Cheebo was holding himself back from $800M+ going into that final week. With maybe one exception, the only people guessing $1B+ were people who had no clue what they were talking about. You can tell by the fact that the OS half of their predictions were in the $2-4B range.
BronsonLee
Member
He's the king of the world?
At the very start of the year, I thought it would open weaker than Ultron (given the trend for December openings) but out-gross it in the long run, I didn't think however, that it would (probably) more than double Ultron's take in North America. If you would have guessed that at the start of the year people would've laughed you out of the thread.
BronsonLee
Member
...Ok that's pretty good too
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
$45M is probably the best case scenario for TFA then, which is unfortunately makes $1 billion a pipe dream, even with some sort of aggressive expansion a few months down the road.
That was pretty much my prediction exactly.
I was saying that last Sunday, but stronger than typical dailies have been making me more optimistic during the course of the week. I wonder if the strong dailies trend will stop when Star Wars loses the IMAX screens. Anyone have an idea of how those screenings are selling this far out?
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
I'll stick to my very specific 966M prediction because whatevs
A billion would be very interesting to see.
Edit: oh, top of page...
A billion would be very interesting to see.
Edit: oh, top of page...
- Status