Yeah, cause movie producers usually react to unexpectedly low numbers by getting risky..?
Wkd Box Office 0501-0315 - The age of Marvel continues...
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Yeah, cause movie producers usually react to unexpectedly low numbers by getting risky..?
Iron Man 3 second weekend drop = -58.4%
Ultron second weekend drop = -59.6%
And this weekend had basically shit competition where the second highest earner (Hot Pursuit) opened at 13M where as Iron Man 3 had a 50M opener in Gatsby. Iron Man 3 grossed ~43.5% more of it's current gross from here on so if Ultron follows the same trajectory, it will end up at (312x1.435) 448.5M.
Also keep in mind that Ultron will lose most of it's IMAX screens to Mad Max next weekend.
Ultron second weekend drop = -59.6%
And this weekend had basically shit competition where the second highest earner (Hot Pursuit) opened at 13M where as Iron Man 3 had a 50M opener in Gatsby. Iron Man 3 grossed ~43.5% more of it's current gross from here on so if Ultron follows the same trajectory, it will end up at (312x1.435) 448.5M.
Also keep in mind that Ultron will lose most of it's IMAX screens to Mad Max next weekend.
Not a really fair/accurate comparison until we get actual numbers Monday morning but I can understand the enthusiasm for wanting to compare them both. At the least we do know both are in line with one another, and nothing is really surprising about that at all.
Still surprised that Hot Pursuit bombed as hard as it did. Even though it is a craptacular movie, the new Paul Blart movie opened up bigger, which speaks to the strength of that franchise. Also surprised that women under 18 and 18-25 gave Hot Pursuit an A and A- rating. I know some women who enjoyed the film and fall exactly into those demographics.
I was actually hoping for a second weekend close to 90M, Marvel movies have this knack of exaggerated Sat jumps but as soon as the Friday estimate came in 90M went out of the picture.
2015 Release schedule (Iron Man 3 drops)
15-May: Mad Max & Pitch Perfect 2 (-50.7%)
22-May: Tomorrowland & Poltergeist (-46.0%)
29-May: San Andreas & Aloha (-56.3%)
5-June: Spy & Insidious 3 (31.8%)
12-June: Jurassic World (-48.6%)
So key next week is to top the chart again (with at least 39M) and hope Pitch Perfect 2 comes under expectations.
2015 Release schedule (Iron Man 3 drops)
15-May: Mad Max & Pitch Perfect 2 (-50.7%)
22-May: Tomorrowland & Poltergeist (-46.0%)
29-May: San Andreas & Aloha (-56.3%)
5-June: Spy & Insidious 3 (31.8%)
12-June: Jurassic World (-48.6%)
So key next week is to top the chart again (with at least 39M) and hope Pitch Perfect 2 comes under expectations.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't know if that's the case. Here in Portland I'm pretty sure there's two IMAX screens (both LieMAX, actually) moving Ultron out and moving Mad Max in.
That is correct. Mad Max won't have the IMAX treatment in the U.S.
Edit: Actually it seems to have a limited IMAX roll out. I stand corrected.
MrPink93485
Member
Here in Houston, no Mad Max in IMAX for us so far. It looks like it'll be Avengers followed by Tomorrowland on Memorial Day weekend. It would be nice to at least get split showings or something, Avengers during the day, Mad Max at night.
Obliterator
Member
So in other words still a gigantic success for Mahvel. It should do 400 million domestic still right?
It didn't quite meet a lot of people's expectations but still huge
MrPink93485
Member
Pitch Perfect 2 broke out huge in Australia, a market with similar tastes. Since it made 8.8 million there this weekend, a 50m + OW in the US seems like it's going to happen, and I would say 60-70 million is a good possibility.
Comparing this weekend directly with the 2nd weekend of IM3, the total grosses are $125mil vs. %158mil respectively. Hot pursuit did. AoU bested IM3 and nabs the record for 2nd highest grossing 2nd domestic weekend of all time but that 30mil discrepancy in total weekend gross is interesting, especially since that's pretty much the difference between the 2nd weekends for AoU and Avengers. That's likely pure coincidence though. The 2nd weekend total gross for Avengers in 2012 was $171mil.
Second week of May Domestic BO
2012 - $171m
2013 - $158m
2014 - $136m
2105 - $125m
I don't know what that means or why there's such a steady yoy downward trend but it sure is fascinating.
Second week of May Domestic BO
2012 - $171m
2013 - $158m
2014 - $136m
2105 - $125m
I don't know what that means or why there's such a steady yoy downward trend but it sure is fascinating.
Pretty much. It got to >$300 million in 10 days, tying The Dark Knight but the original Avengers got there in 9. It's really splitting hairs at this point if people are finding issues with the gross total thus far.
Same here at my closest chains.
BronsonLee
Member
If it helps Mad Max, I'll chop block Pitch Perfect 2 right now 
Here in socal Downtown Disney and Irvine Spectrum will not be showing Mad Max in IMAX. Both are huge venues and money makers so that's unfortunate.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I think the hope here is that both movies maker north of 50 mil. There's enough room at the box-office for them to do both.
But 50 for Max is at lot more iffy than 50 for Pitch Perfect 2.
Max will need legs. That word of mouth HAS to be strong. As strong or stronger than Kingsman's, I think.
But 50 for Max is at lot more iffy than 50 for Pitch Perfect 2.
Max will need legs. That word of mouth HAS to be strong. As strong or stronger than Kingsman's, I think.
MrPink93485
Member
Gotta hope reviews and a final marketing push will take Mad Max over 50m. The fact that Mad Max was previously tracking the high 20s/low 30s and is now at 40m+ is encouraging.
BronsonLee
Member
So what you're saying is I just need to buy 10 million dollars worth of tickets and we're good for Mad Max, got it!
Domestic and Australia are usually similar markets, but Australia was actually the biggest foreign market for the first Pitch Perfect, making $13.5M (which would probably be equivalent to a $125M or so gross in the US). As such, I would caution extrapolating Pitch Perfect's opening based on Australia.
Perhaps they are just big fans of Rebel Wilson there.
MrPink93485
Member
Heh, never knew that about the first film being relatively big in Australia.
I believe there was some kind of holiday too inflating grosses a bit, but still, I think 50m is pretty likely to happen given the early tracking and what we're seeing in Australia.
If the US opening got the exact same boost that the Australian opening got over the first film, it would open to $49M (ignoring those preview grosses the week before). Reviews seem to be OK so far, which points to WOM being good among its target demo.
EDIT: It looks like Cinderella now has a little less than $4M to go before it hits the $200M mark Domestically. I would imagine that Disney will allow it to like there over the next month.
It is still a success in terms of financial output, but it way undershot every expectation. It is the only one from the second series to not exceed and beat expectations, but under perform. IM3, Thor, and CA3 all got amazing boosts. While GotG beat about every expectation soundly.
This was definitely supposed to be the crowning achievement to cap it off. Instead it turned out to perform quite a bit less. Basically its a worry. Has the MCU plateau?
MrPink93485
Member
Those preview grosses were rather significant though and surely impacted what we might have gotten on opening weekend had it gone wide from the start. On the flip side, that wide opening might not have been as strong had the previews not existed to generate additional buzz.
Also, the first film had a later release date in AUS than the US (2 months or so after), so US reception might have helped put the film on people's radars overseas as opposed to opening day and date with the domestic market. Pure speculation on the previous part, but if I had to guess, the Christmas time frame certainly helped with final totals in markets like the UK, Germany, and Australia.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Ah. Good analogy. Thank you.
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