Support NeoGAF

[7DollarHagane]

But really is there a way to reduce the internal storage of the unit via nand to mainly house system os and include a 32gb microsd in the box?

Microsd is super cheap at 32gb now, and is fast enough for download games.

 

[ethomaz]

I wonder if we will see an increased intenral storage switch model faster because 32gb seems to be the high demand size for smartphones now.

Or if they will reduce it to 16gb and just include a 32gb card in the box. Might be a way to avoid competing for the high demand nand memory without significantly impacting the cost.

Let's be clear here.

The size of the chip is not the issue... the production line used to make the chip is the issue.

They supply can make only 10 million chip this year for Nintendo no matter the size... that is what Nintendo is fighting (to get more production lines for them but Apple has probably 90% of it scheduled for themselves).

But really is there a way to reduce the internal storage of the unit via nand to mainly house system os and include a 32gb microsd in the box?

Microsd is super cheap at 32gb now, and is fast enough for download games.

That won't help Nintendo at all.

 

[BitStyle]

Just announce the Switch handheld version without rumble and all those extra stuff later next year. Like a 2DS version of the switch.

And miss out on those sweet joycon sales they could get? Don't see that happening.

Like, at best, I could see a dockless Switch sku.

 

[VariantX]

Let's be clear here.

The size of the chip is not the issue... the production line used to make the chip is the issue.

They supply can make only 10 million chip this year for Nintendo no matter the size... that is what Nintendo is fighting (to get more production lines for them but Apple has probably 90% of it scheduled for themselves).

So basically, every other hardware manufacturer is crammed into that last 10%?

 

[LordOfChaos]

”Demand for our NAND flash memory has been overwhelmingly greater than supply, and the situation is likely to stay for the rest of this year," said a spokeswoman at Toshiba Corp., the troubled industrial giant that is leaning on flash memory to survive. She cited demand from smartphone makers—Apple and Chinese companies are among Toshiba's customers—and data centers

While the 32GB was ho hum, imagine the production issue magnifying if they had launched with double or quadruple that.

I doubt this includes demand for puny little 32GB NAND flash memory, smartphones are moving past that.

It's still the highest selling model in the latest iPhone, and the iPhone I believe is the largest selling high end device as a single product (others moving more phones have more product lines)

 

[Fiendcode]

But the Switch can't change form factors every year or we will have 4 different sizes of joy con on store shelves by 2020

Maybe some Switch formfactors don't have the modular controllers but it's all built in. Joycons are pretty small too, they could fit a variety of formfactors as is besides the pretty large Switch tablet.

Conversely look how the Wii/Wii U went. I'm guessing it will be a mix of both so revision after 2 years makes sense to me.

Also 3DS had a bad first year and Switch is selling like hotcakes.

Wii U had a worse first year and no revision ever. GBA and DS each had a pretty great first year and yet both got revisions in less than 2 years.

The reason that happened was because of the price cut. I'll try to summarise since I don't want to spend too long explaining it again.

3DS was overpriced and overstocked, spooked Nintendo that it was losing sales. Nintendo cuts price drastically.

3DS ships 15 million units in its first calendar year, however software sales didn't make up for the price cut of the hardware.

Nintendo reports first financial loss in decades.

Nintendo releases 3DS XL which costs more for consumers so that Nintendo gets more revenue, producing more units of 3DS XL and 3DS helps to lower manufacturing costs.

2DS was made for Europe and US because of low sales of 3DS handhelds.

Etc etc

You get the idea though, the reason the 3DS XL appeared so soon was that Nintendo needed to offset more losses by making a handheld that would give more revenue hence, the 3DS XL.

The Switch does not have this problem because it is selling well at its price. That is why it's expected that there won't be a revision until at least 2019.

XL models have been coming switfly, I think we'd have seen 3DS XL launch when it did regardless of how 3DS sold initially. DSi XL also followed about a year after it's incredibly successful smaller conterpart and n3DS XL launched alongside it's little bro, earlier even in the US.

Likewise I think 2DS was probably on the roadmap anyway and was more a response to the larger industry trend of losing children to tablets than it was current 3DS sales specifically. It was also sort of a flop initially, it's really only made any impact now after Pokémon Go fever hit.

 

[TetraGenesis]

Yikes... Glad I already have a Switch. This isn't something that will be resolved soon. :/

 

[ggx2ac]

XL models have been coming switfly, I think we'd have seen 3DS XL launch when it did regardless of how 3DS sold initially. DSi XL also followed about a year after it's incredibly successful smaller conterpart and n3DS XL launched alongside it's little bro, earlier even in the US.

Yeah but did you expect 3DS XL to come with no AC adapter?

Even the New 3DS XL models come with no AC Adapter.

The only exception now is the New 2DS XL because the manufacturing costs aren't problematic enough for Nintendo to make cuts to things.

So of course a 3DS XL would have appeared, but it appeared so fast with a higher cost and with no AC adapter because Nintendo wanted more revenue by shipping something in a smaller box where they could ship more per volume because of the losses the original 3DS caused.

 

[Futureman]

Wii U had a worse first year and no revision ever. GBA and DS each had a pretty great first year and yet both got revisions in less than 2 years.

so the only pattern seems to be handhelds got lots of revisions and consoles did not. Considering this is a hybrid system, I still think 2019 at the earliest is the best guess. If Switch is selling amazing there's no reason to get a revision out next year.

 

[Calm Mind]

Samsung to the rescue?

 

[ethomaz]

So basically, every other hardware manufacturer is crammed into that last 10%?

Well when you have Apple at over 200 million per year (it is probably way more)... kinda yes... the other big player (Samsung) does in house if I'm not wrong.

That said this supply probably works with Apple and some others small production request.

 

[Bluth54]

You didn't read the comment he replied to?

The second part seems to be saying that most people on the Switch don't need more than 32 GB though I suppose he could be talking about phones, the post isn't 100% clear.

I do stand by my statements, even if you don't go all digital for retail games just patches, DLC and download only games is going to eat up the Switch's 26 GB of avaliable memory very quickly and it's ridiculous that the Switch has the same amount of built in flash memory as the main SKU of the Wii U despite launching 5 years later.

Do you want a $800 Switch? Look at the pricing of phones when they get 64, 120, 240 gigs of flash memory. Go ahead, I'll give you time to google it.

It's expensive as all heck. On a system that doesn't require that games are installed, it doesn't make sense to include really big, yet really expensive, flash memory. It would drive the price of the Switch out of a range the market can bare. People already complain over $299. You think $599 or higher would sit better just to have a ton of internal storage?

Nintendo created the best of the bother worlds. They used a small amount of internal memory to keep the costs under control at the market and is something that would affect most consumers who go physical only. For those that want to go digital, they gave you an easy way to upgrade your storage with micro sd cards, something many opt to do on android devices getting as much storage as they want. Plus, Nintendo allows multiple cards used on each system. You can buy a Hanful of 120 gig cards on BFsales and be set.

It's the best of both worlds for everyone. If they released a 240 gig flash version.... people wouldn't be able to afford a Switch.

Do you actually know how much flash memory costs and how much of a markup there is for the higher end phones with extra flash memory built in? Go ahead, I'll give you time to google it.

But if you need a little help here's a link to a seller of the exact flash memory the Switch has built in.
The highest quantity they have a quote for is $16.44 per unit for an order of 500. Nintendo is buying directly from the manufacturer and buying in much, much higher quantities than 500 so yeah they're getting a better price than that. High end phones with extra flash memory built in are a lot of extra profit margin for phone manufacturers.

The fact of the matter is Ninendo should of ate some extra cost and included more flash memory, not just for the patches and DLC that's going to burn through that memory in no time, but to encourage people to go digital with their purchases. Both Nintendo and the publisher of the game get higher margins on digital, especially since it seems like Switch game cards prices are high enough compared to Blu Rays that some publishers are having to charge extra for the Switch versions of a game.

 

[Graphics Horse]

so the only pattern seems to be handhelds got lots of revisions and consoles did not. Considering this is a hybrid system, I still think 2019 at the earliest is the best guess. If Switch is selling amazing there's no reason to get a revision out next year.

Late 2018 is earliest, next doesn't necessarily even need to be hybrid.
They released a games hh/c model average of 1 per year this century, I expect that to slow down a bit but they clearly like refreshing things you can take with you and families will more often want to own multiple of.

 

[OverturePT]

Bad news for them. A lot of money will be left on the table.

 

[Nilaul]

Which is a joint venture by Sony, Toshiba, and Hitachi.

Had no idea lol

Sony stays on winning even if the competition is winning

 

[Fiendcode]

Yeah but did you expect 3DS XL to come with no AC adapter?

Even the New 3DS XL models come with no AC Adapter.

The only exception now is the New 2DS XL because the manufacturing costs aren't problematic enough for Nintendo to make cuts to things.

So of course a 3DS XL would have appeared, but it appeared so fast with a higher cost and with no AC adapter because Nintendo wanted more revenue by shipping something in a smaller box where they could ship more per volume because of the losses the original 3DS caused.

My XL came with an AC adapter. And yes the XL would've come just as fast. GBA, DS and 3DS all got new models less than 2 years from launch and all had pretty different sales trends early on. 3DS XL wasn't the reactionary response you're trying to paint it as, it was just business as usual for Nintendo handhelds.

so the only pattern seems to be handhelds got lots of revisions and consoles did not. Considering this is a hybrid system, I still think 2019 at the earliest is the best guess. If Switch is selling amazing there's no reason to get a revision out next year.

2019 is a long ways away. Personally seeing new models in mid to late 2018 wouldn't surprise me at all. I remember Iwata implying more hardware configurations than usual being one of the earlier NX talking points.

I also think they could go in any direction really. A microconsole with a Pro controller, a dedicated clamshell handheld for kids, a premium Switch Pro model with 128GB and an OLED screen. We could even get modular upgrades, maybe Joycons with analog triggers or a real dpad, the fabled Super Dock for higher fidelity tv play, etc.

 

[The Technomancer]

I doubt this includes demand for puny little 32GB NAND flash memory, smartphones are moving past that.

Even if it doesn't the manufacturer has to prioritize which they're running at any given time

 

[Mupod]

I ordered a samsung 960 evo m.2 SSD back in December and the thing was so backordered and hard to find in Canada I only just got it. I remember reading this was caused by a NAND shortage, so I guess it's been going on for a while?

 

[Pokemaniac]

But really is there a way to reduce the internal storage of the unit via nand to mainly house system os and include a 32gb microsd in the box?

Microsd is super cheap at 32gb now, and is fast enough for download games.

The system is currently not designed to have save data on the MicroSD card. It wouldn't be a trivial change.

 

[Gators300]

The only revision I could see that is realistic would be to increase the screen size inside of the existing form factor. There's room for at least another inch if you reduce the bevel size.

 

[boiled goose]

Apple is only helping Nintendo with artificial supply constraints so that Nintendo can magically sell more by shipping less

/gaf logic

 

[Serenitynow]

Did the NES mini use NAND chips?

 

[Futureman]

Did the NES mini use NAND chips?

512 MB flash chip. Not sure if that would be produced on the same line as Switch's 32 GB chip, but if so I think we can see clearly now why Nintendo decided to cease production.

 

[Aroll]

The second part seems to be saying that most people on the Switch don't need more than 32 GB though I suppose he could be talking about phones, the post isn't 100% clear.

I do stand by my statements, even if you don't go all digital for retail games just patches, DLC and download only games is going to eat up the Switch's 26 GB of avaliable memory very quickly and it's ridiculous that the Switch has the same amount of built in flash memory as the main SKU of the Wii U despite launching 5 years later.



Do you actually know how much flash memory costs and how much of a markup there is for the higher end phones with extra flash memory built in? Go ahead, I'll give you time to google it.

But if you need a little help here's a link to a seller of the exact flash memory the Switch has built in.
The highest quantity they have a quote for is $16.44 per unit for an order of 500. Nintendo is buying directly from the manufacturer and buying in much, much higher quantities than 500 so yeah they're getting a better price than that. High end phones with extra flash memory built in are a lot of extra profit margin for phone manufacturers.

The fact of the matter is Ninendo should of ate some extra cost and included more flash memory, not just for the patches and DLC that's going to burn through that memory in no time, but to encourage people to go digital with their purchases. Both Nintendo and the publisher of the game get higher margins on digital, especially since it seems like Switch game cards prices are high enough compared to Blu Rays that some publishers are having to charge extra for the Switch versions of a game.

Obviously there are huge markups, but Nintendo is not likely going to go against the industry standard on that front. Especially as they are fighting for assembly lines. Also, the move to cartridges is counter intuitive to Nintendo pushing people to digital. You may think Nintendo SHOULD do that, but they aren't. Nintendo has gone the complete opposite way, making physical purchasing more and more viable. On PS4 and Xbox One - unless you plan to resell your game later, there isn't much point to physical. You have to install the game either way. On Switch, you don't need game installs - 32gb will go a long way with dlc and patches. Most who buy straight physical may never even need an SD card.

I understand why it makes sense to push to digital, but Nintendo clearly thinks the physical market is still the #1 best market to keep building with. I also wonder about those prices on physical games. AAA studios have no pricing issues, it's the indies that do, and of them... some of those indies don't even release physical versions on any other device. So clearly there is something about the Switch that makes making physical copies of indie games enticing, and there is extra cost associated with physical verse digital, and since indies are working in the opposite direction - going from much higher profit margins to much smaller ones in that case, it could be that they weren't prepared for that reality so they upped the price.

 

[Timeaisis]

If there is money to be made, they will find a way to make it work.

 

[NolbertoS]

Wow, initially I thought Nintendo was gonna battle Apple in the mobile wars. First it starts with parts and now with Apps . The NAND and Circuit board suppliers must be ecstatic seeing another competitor against Apple. Maybe down the road, Apple or Nintendo will buy shares to ensure production

 

[The Last Wizard]

Which is a joint venture by Sony, Toshiba, and Hitachi.

Had no idea lol

Sony playing 3D chess.

 

[foltzie1]

Wow, initially I thought Nintendo was gonna battle Apple in the mobile wars. First it starts with parts and now with Apps . The NAND and Circuit board suppliers must be ecstatic seeing another competitor against Apple. Maybe down the road, Apple or Nintendo will buy shares to ensure production

Nintendo is in little position to exert force on Apple from a manufacturing standpoint. Even if Nintendo was on track to build ~20 million Switch consoles in 2017, Apple built ~212 million in 2016 and will probably need more in 2017.

Nintendo represented less than 1% of capacity for this types of companies in previous years and in a boon year at most ~10% as compared to Apple.

Plus this is just a comparison to Apple, Nintendo is asking for parts that other manufactures use too and if there is a shortage on any of the big shared parts, you'll either pay more or wait.

 

[yyr]

Apple is using no screen that overlaps with what Switch is using, yet they somehow "fight" for it.

The raw materials used to produce screens are the same, yes?

The raw materials used to produce RAM are the same, yes?

This is why they need to compete for parts. But don't worry. Everyone who wants a Switch will eventually get one, just as everyone who wanted a Wii eventually got one. I honestly don't think it will take as long this time.

 

[johnny956]

So basically, every other hardware manufacturer is crammed into that last 10%?

Yea I'm not understanding how Nintendo isn't getting supply. Every other cell phone manufacturer manages to get supply and many phones will sell more then the Switch this year

 

[antibolo]

Oh fuck off Apple, you make enough money already.

 

[Skittzo0413]

The raw materials used to produce screens are the same, yes?

The raw materials used to produce RAM are the same, yes?

This is why they need to compete for parts. But don't worry. Everyone who wants a Switch will eventually get one, just as everyone who wanted a Wii eventually got one. I honestly don't think it will take as long this time.

The production and assembly lines are also the same, regardless of the screen size. And the amount of employees doesn't change.

There are finite resources at all of these component suppliers, regardless of whether or not they are all supplying the same component. Semiconductor fabrication is a lot more complex than some people seem to think.

 

[antibolo]

I wonder if there are other devices that use the same 6.2 inch 720p display as the Switch?

It's pretty low pixel density by current phone/tablet standards.

 

[Tom Nook]

NOOO

I still haven't gotten a Switch, I don't need a new iPhone......

 

[Gamecocks625]

512 MB flash chip. Not sure if that would be produced on the same line as Switch's 32 GB chip, but if so I think we can see clearly now why Nintendo decided to cease production.

Yep, Reggie's comments make sense now in terms of whey they were stopping production.

 

[Yoshimitsu126]

Damn it iPhones!... Oh wait.

 

[nubbe]

NOOO

I still haven't gotten a Switch, I don't need a new iPhone......

Give your iPhone to Nintendo so they can pick it for parts

 

[ec0ec0]

Some have told us mobile market was going to hurt console games market, but we didn't listen.

comment of the thread.

So, from reading the thread, i got that, had nintendo gone with 64gb of memory instead of 32gb, it wouldn't have changed absolutely anything, even though 32gb is still the most requested memory capacity nowadays?

edit:

Give your iPhone to Nintendo so they can pick it for parts

and second best comment of the thread right here

 

[Abstrusity]

Hey guys, remember when people talked about supply-side economics like it was something that never worked under any circumstances?

Well, this is one of those market failures that the so-called 'supply-side economics' is supposed to alleviate. See, the supply of these components needs to dramatically raise. Where is the lagging sector? The mining and recycling of the inputs to manufacture? Manufacturing base itself? Targeted tax cuts and/or subsidies can help ALL of the struggling companies here. The fact that this works is the basis of the supply-side doctrine pushed in the post-70s era.

Now, this is again, not to say that it would work every time in every situation, but this is THE situation the maneuvers were devised for. :^)

 

[RootCause]

If there is money to be made, they will find a way to make it work.

A longer wait, that's all there is to it. And the numbers they expect to move is pretty darn good.

Oh fuck off Apple, you make enough money already.

Lol come on! This is just ridiculous.

 

[Peltz]

Pretty incredible that Nintendo will likely have sold out hardware for the next year or so. I could not have predicted this sort of demand back in January when they gave the full reveal. Glad it's working out for them and hope they can figure out some way to increase production.

 

[Z3M0G]

Funny how this is taken as "bad" news in this thread, and I just learned about it from my Nintendo-fan friend who forwarded it to me as a brag.

 

[GDGF]

Chip shortages of one type or another have been a thorn in Nintendo's side since the NES days.

It's tradition at this point

 

[Calm Mind]

Give your iPhone to Nintendo so they can pick it for parts

Switch parts for the Switch God.

 

[ArtHands]

comment of the thread.

So, from reading the thread, i got that, had nintendo gone with 64gb of memory instead of 32gb, it wouldn't have changed absolutely anything, even though 32gb is still the most requested memory capacity nowadays?

edit:

and second best comment of the thread right here

I am guessing those suppliers are using pull system of inventory control, which means they get the orders and then only produce (at near full capacity) enough for Apple. Its not like they produced several millions of the 32GB of memory and wait for Apple to come buy them and then they sell the remaining/surplus 32GB to Nintendo.

 

[jts]

Apple even added a webpage about it:

www.apple.com/switch

 

[Portugeezer]

64gb switch coming up.

 

[ec0ec0]

Apple even added a webpage about it:

www.apple.com/switch

haha

 

[Technosteve]

Nintendo wont invest the amount of capital to prepay for memory chips like apple does. Kids i think scalping switched is going to be pretty profitable this holiday season.

 

[DarkConfidant]

Supplies for all sorts of mobile computing products are being strained worldwide.

I guess no supplier, even the size of Toshiba, could have predicted this, let alone taken the risk to expand on what could have easily been a bubble.

I've been seeing Apple have these issues over the past year, and increasing so as they struggle to product enough of their new phone.
They've resorted to investing money directly into these suppliers, like Corning, to help fund expanding production bandwidth.


Though it seems like trouble, I think it's a really good sign that Nintendo is doing whatever they can to produce more. Should be good for Switch long term, though I predict them being sold out until 2018.