So then free multiplayer would be such a massive hit.
Again, just like on the PS3.
How many extra sales do you think Ms would get because of free online?
I don't think you realize the absurd amount of money these companies make from pay2play.
A console maker gets ~$10 for every retail game sold.
Most consoles hover around 10 games sold per owner, so that is $100 per console owner per gen from software licenses.
$100 or ~2 years of an online sub.
Meaning if you subscribe for the entire console gen (6 years), without ever buying anything, the money they got from you is already equal to the money they got from the avg. ps1, ps2 and ps3 owner added together(!)
Bottom line is that no console maker will ever turn the clock back on pay2play without having a very very good reason (desperation) to do so.