I would be shocked if this were the case. Probability can be wacky sometimes! And we're hard-wired to focus on the negatives instead of our own lucky shots.
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XCOM: Enemy Unknown |OT| Neo GAF is Under Alien Control
- Thread starter Jintor
- Start date
I would be shocked if this were the case. Probability can be wacky sometimes! And we're hard-wired to focus on the negatives instead of our own lucky shots.
So, here's an early decision I'd like a little input on. I don't mind making a bad choice per se, but still. What are the pros and cons of going straight for the light plasma rifle research, which takes just over 2 weeks, versus clearing out some of the fast stuff I have available.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure I've hit a mission that's impossible to do without getting wiped.
12 Cyrsotlids, 4 cyber discs, no cover besides 1 car that's on fire, 18 civilians who are all in the fog of war so they're turning to zombies while you're setting up, No assualts, 2 squaddies, and everytime I've loaded, Col. Sniper misses his first 3 shots.
I understand this game is supposed to be hard. This isn't hard, it's annoying. If I could quit this mission, I would and let Zimbabwe get eaten.
12 Cyrsotlids, 4 cyber discs, no cover besides 1 car that's on fire, 18 civilians who are all in the fog of war so they're turning to zombies while you're setting up, No assualts, 2 squaddies, and everytime I've loaded, Col. Sniper misses his first 3 shots.
I understand this game is supposed to be hard. This isn't hard, it's annoying. If I could quit this mission, I would and let Zimbabwe get eaten.
Lactose_Intolerant
Member
You are just talking nonsense here.
Why would they lie about the odds? I'm pretty sure you just think the odds are wrong but I'm pretty sure what is reported is correct unless you have a bug in your game. I think people just noticed more when "4 dudes fire with 70% odds to hit and all of them missed" vs "4 dudes fire with 30% odds to hit and all of them hit".
Math! It doesn't always work in your favor.
Odds of missing a 4 shots in a row with 70 percent accuracy is p = .0081 or just over 8/10ths of 1 percent. Dude must have gotten really unlucky. That's how it goes sometimes.
Boss Riovane
Member
Well gentleman i finally got my copy and got two hours of solid play before i went in and damn im happy its everything i wanted. I even picked up the strat guide just to have. All in all it was worth the wait.
If i can't be shot from across the map by shots out of the darkness or mind controlled by a commander on a ship three stories up five blocks away, i am content
platypotamus
Member
I think you can. I've noticed there's a little rectangle near the skyranger on the map, that I bet you can flee if you move your dudes into.
Get back in the skyranger. Zimbabwe can take care of itself.
Yeah you get an option to abort the mission.
MiniBossBattle
Member
Yeah that's not how odds work. Just because the first shot misses doesn't make any subsequent shot's odds better.
You construct the Foundry building when it is available and there will be a project in it to create the SHIV, and later projects to upgrade it. The Foundry is essentially a engineering research section that provides upgrades to certain equipment but uses alloys, elerium, and sometimes alien corpses and often times a fair chunk of money.
Also the SHIV does not allow you to go beyond the six person squad limit. Its main purpose is acting as mobile cover and cannon fodder, especially if you have numerous vets in the hospital and have to field rookies. It also cannot panic.
Oppo
Member
fuckiing fantastic.
now I need to see if it will fix itself after a mission or two, or if I'm permanently locked out of ever using a SHIV. I've only used it once and it blew up. this was the replacement.
this is why I wasn't willing to trust Ironman mode for a first play through.
Why would they lie about the odds? I'm pretty sure you just think the odds are wrong but I'm pretty sure what is reported is correct unless you have a bug in your game. I think people just noticed more when "4 dudes fire with 70% odds to hit and all of them missed" vs "4 dudes fire with 30% odds to hit and all of them hit".
Math! It doesn't always work in your favor.
Pretty much. I've had a few 90%+ shots miss. Even a 95% (silly sniper!).
But I've also had 15-20% shots hit (memorably, one of those was from a rookie that ended up saving a veteran's ass). You could feasibly get even lower percentage shots to hit as well, but I haven't really gone for those.
... So nub question... how do I rename the file extension? When I try renaming it just makes it ybyesspg.bat.txt... without actually changing the file type. Win 7 btw.
lorebringer
Member
That is how odds work. Miletius didn't claim that the outcome of one shot affected another, what he said was that the probability of the event that is 4 misses at 70% chance to hit occurring is 0.0081.
Edit: or did I just herp derp and you were agreeing?
I'm leaving this here anyway
Picked up my copy at Best Buy (had a big gift card). This is my first "surprise" game purchase in a long while. Wasn't really on my radar a few weeks ago.
Though I have to say, XCOM makes me wish the barebones manual movement wasn't a thing. Not a huge deal, but a thick, full color manual explaining the various systems and mechanics is perfect for a game like this.
Though I have to say, XCOM makes me wish the barebones manual movement wasn't a thing. Not a huge deal, but a thick, full color manual explaining the various systems and mechanics is perfect for a game like this.
Haven't been playing terribly long, did the tutorial and then two missions after a restart, but it's running great on 360. And it controls beautifully with a gamepad.
platypotamus
Member
That is how odds work. Miletius didn't claim that the outcome of one shot affected another, what he said was that the probability of the event that is 4 misses at 70% chance to hit occurring is 0.0081.
Edit: or did I just herp derp and you were agreeing?
I'm leaving this here anyway
I was about to post pretty much what you did, and then had the thought that you editted in, so I just abandoned my post, :lol
While its true that it doesn't make any subsequent shot's odds any better, the odds of missing 4 times in a row with a 70% chance to hit is astronomically low. (30%)^4 = 0.81% chance to receive that outcome. However like every odds out there, when something is not 100% given, there is a chance you may be that less than 1%.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
Firaxis played with the odds in Civ to actually make that the case.
pieatorium
Member
Just loaded up, about to start my first mission. Wish me luck haha
lorebringer
Member
I type 7 times faster than I think and read 2.5 times slower than I type.
Bony Manifesto
Member
Control Panel > Folder Options > View > Untick 'Hide extensions for known filetypes'
Awesome. thanks. you da man!
Shorty11857
Member
Doing a mission I thought was going well, when suddenly two aliens came out of nowhere and got massive crits on my medic and my most experienced soldier. Nearly lost my other Captain as well, that mission could have been a complete disaster. But still have Ironman on and that's XCom, even the failures are a lot of fun
Mattdaddy
Gold Member
Yeah I would have bet the fucking farm I was bugged or something last night. My sniper is normally a killing machine and shes rocking the scope too for bonus hit. I'm not exaggerating when I say that she missed between 8 to 10 shots in a row, plus some reaction shots. All the planned shots were over 70%, and some at 91%. She didnt have any debuff or anything either. I was so pissed. Actually I don't think she ever hit anything, I finally aborted the mission after everyone else died.
I figured I was just raging... but I mean what are the odds of missing that many shots with 70-91% hit percentage in a row, plus some reaction shots. Ill tell you what else was weird too... normally when there is a miss (myself or alien) its clear that the shot misses. Some of these were clipping right through them, like it was a hit but was registering as a miss.
Either way, game still kicks ass As long as it was a one mission thing.
I figured I was just raging... but I mean what are the odds of missing that many shots with 70-91% hit percentage in a row, plus some reaction shots. Ill tell you what else was weird too... normally when there is a miss (myself or alien) its clear that the shot misses. Some of these were clipping right through them, like it was a hit but was registering as a miss.
Either way, game still kicks ass
As long as it was a one mission thing.Yeah I would have bet the fucking farm I was bugged or something last night. My sniper is normally a killing machine and shes rocking the scope too for bonus hit. I'm not exaggerating when I say that she missed between 8 to 10 shots in a row, plus some reaction shots. All the planned shots were over 70%, and some at 91%. She didnt have any debuff or anything either. I was so pissed. Actually I don't think she ever hit anything, I finally aborted the mission after everyone else died.
I figured I was just raging... but I mean what are the odds of missing that many shots with 70-91% hit percentage in a row, plus some reaction shots. Ill tell you what else was weird too... normally when there is a miss (myself or alien) its clear that the shot misses. Some of these were clipping right through them, like it was a hit but was registering as a miss.
Either way, game still kicks ass
Was there any chance of cover in the way? I've noticed a lot of misses on stuff that just doesn't LOOK right but still has a relatively high percentage.
Snapshot King
Member
Yeah I would have bet the fucking farm I was bugged or something last night. My sniper is normally a killing machine and shes rocking the scope too for bonus hit. I'm not exaggerating when I say that she missed between 8 to 10 shots in a row, plus some reaction shots. All the planned shots were over 70%, and some at 91%. She didnt have any debuff or anything either. I was so pissed. Actually I don't think she ever hit anything, I finally aborted the mission after everyone else died.
I figured I was just raging... but I mean what are the odds of missing that many shots with 70-91% hit percentage in a row, plus some reaction shots. Ill tell you what else was weird too... normally when there is a miss (myself or alien) its clear that the shot misses. Some of these were clipping right through them, like it was a hit but was registering as a miss.
Either way, game still kicks ass
The game decides almost immediately if you're ever going to hit a shot or not. Saving and reloading mid mission saves never changes a shot from one position to the other. It's likely that the game is just deciding that today your sniper will have a rough day.
Metalmurphy
Member
I swear to god, this game acts like a dick on porpuse. I don't believe it's just odds and you being unlucky...
I mean, check out what happened on this mission at the end of the video:
http://www.twitch.tv/steamgaf/b/335135881
Mission starts at the 48min mark, and the the cherry on top of everything that went wrong is at 59min mark.
I mean, check out what happened on this mission at the end of the video:
http://www.twitch.tv/steamgaf/b/335135881
Mission starts at the 48min mark, and the the cherry on top of everything that went wrong is at 59min mark.
Mattdaddy
Gold Member
Yeah the aliens were in cover, my sniper had elevation and was kinda on their side though. The % meter was definitely anywhere between 70-91% though. Oh well, that mission was the only one so far where I noticed just an absurdly long string of misses on such a high percent to hit. Oh well. Pressing on.
I had my first death that really hurt since the first. He made a great sacrifice as it reduced panic everywhere, gave me a shitload of money and some breathing room.
RIP Mustang, you will be missed.
RIP Mustang, you will be missed.
Was totally his fault, he missed 4 up close shots in a row while getting bumrushed by crystallids.
KO Traveling Hobo
Member
Xeno seems like a dangerous nickname to give a soldier in a war against aliens.I had my first death that really hurt since the first. He made a great sacrifice as it reduced panic everywhere, gave me a shitload of money and some breathing room.
RIP Mustang, you will be missed.
goldsoundz
Member
Just about all of North America is fucked in my game, and South America isn't far behind. Europe and Asia are on lockdown though. Any way to decrease panic in countries other than launching satellites and random abduction missions?
Basileus777
Member
Play through the main storyline long enough to
get the Alien Base, once you assault that, the abductions that generate high amount of panic everywhere stop.
Robert Downey finally bit the dust like 20+ missions in. Got ambushed by 2 chryssalids, even 11 health couldn't help him.
Then the fucker got up a turn or two later and almost killed my next best soldier (the heavy from the tutorial). Thankfully I was able to stabilize him with a medpack but I had to finish that brutal mission with 4 people and missing my 2 best ones.
Then the fucker got up a turn or two later and almost killed my next best soldier (the heavy from the tutorial). Thankfully I was able to stabilize him with a medpack but I had to finish that brutal mission with 4 people and missing my 2 best ones.
old manatee
Banned
Played through the tutorial. I like it so far, but it feels a little sluggish and unresponsive with a keyboard and mouse.
I finally scrounged up the cash to get this game. It's as amazing as I'd hoped; a true successor to the originals.
I have an awesome sniper, Amanda "Boss Lady" Jauregui. It's going to be tragic if (when) I lose her. But things are going surprisingly well so far. Only lost a couple of useless rookies.
I have an awesome sniper, Amanda "Boss Lady" Jauregui. It's going to be tragic if (when) I lose her. But things are going surprisingly well so far. Only lost a couple of useless rookies.