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[Piggus]

I kind of hope Microsoft outsells the PS4 this week just to put a fire under both companies assets that there is a chance..... Hopefully increasing output as a result of the competition. If PS4 wins this month it is practically over. Which makes for boring ND reports.

Sony can't afford to get complacent regardless of how far ahead they are.

 

[Yoda]

I kind of hope Microsoft outsells the PS4 this week just to put a fire under both companies assets that there is a chance..... Hopefully increasing output as a result of the competition. If PS4 wins this month it is practically over. Which makes for boring ND reports.

I don't think losing a month of sales in the U.S. would make Sony blink as they'd still outsell the Xbox One WW by a rather large margin. As it stands the fire under Microsoft still benefits gamers more as it sends a very strong message that the core-gaming audience will not accept anti-consumer bullshit being shoved down our throat in large order... Instead you have to incrementally do it ala DLC/Season passes/pre-order bonuses!

 

[hepburn3d]

Over the years of doing this, there have been people who were excluded who predicted minutes after the cutoff time. You're a great member of this community, and the predictions might not even have gone off some months without your Goddess of Math & Science contributions, but I don't think it'd be fair to those cut off before to go back on that now. But what I can do is calculate your results and have sort of a "What if" ranking. It may end up that this would've been a dropped month, anyways, and the "What if" ranking would at least tell you how it would've turned out in that case. It would be included in the regular ranking, just with an asterisk. So with the annual point rankings, "Aquamarine" would show up once with an asterisk and once without, so you could see where you'd rank for the year.

Sound better?

Think that's pretty cool of you Donny. If Aquamarine gets them perfect then that * will be haunting. Fingers crossed you have an awful predictions month aqua

 

[SwiftDeath]

MS also officially announced the kinect unbundled Xbone the day before Mays (April) NPD figures were released to the public.

The kinectless XB1 was announced Tuesday May 13th, two days before the April NPD releases on Thursday May 15th

So unless NPD now offers super awesome platinum subscribers reports 48 hours [or likely more to have time to prepare that PR announcement] then MS made that move without NPD info on that months sales

It seems irrelevant though because why would MS need to rely on NPD numbers to launch a PR preemptive strike? NPD is useful to have a respected 3rd party track your sales numbers and to use them for shareholders and the like. MS is more than capable of determining how its sales were in any given month before NPD gives out the numbers, perhaps not as accurately as NPD but I'm sure they were well aware of how they did relatively in April even before getting the NPD report.

Note: I do think MS's announcement of the kinectless bundle was in response to their April sales simply don't believe they got an NPD report at least two days in advance though

 

[Aquamarine]

Over the years of doing this, there have been people who were excluded who predicted minutes after the cutoff time. You're a great member of this community, and the predictions might not even have gone off some months without your Goddess of Math & Science contributions, but I don't think it'd be fair to those cut off before to go back on that now. But what I can do is calculate your results and have sort of a "What if" ranking. It may end up that this would've been a dropped month, anyways, and the "What if" ranking would at least tell you how it would've turned out in that case. It would be included in the regular ranking, just with an asterisk. So with the annual point rankings, "Aquamarine" would show up once with an asterisk and once without, so you could see where you'd rank for the year.

Sound better?

Yeah.

I just want to be included, that's all. If it has to be with an asterisk, then that's fine.

 

[vcc]

The kinectless XB1 was announced Tuesday May 13th, two days before the April NPD releases on Thursday May 15th

So unless NPD now offers super awesome platinum subscribers reports 48 hours [or likely more to have time to prepare that PR announcement] then MS made that move without NPD info on that months sales

It seems irrelevant though because why would MS need to rely on NPD numbers to launch a PR preemptive strike? NPD is useful to have a respected 3rd party track your sales numbers and to use them for shareholders and the like. MS is more than capable of determining how its sales were in any given month before NPD gives out the numbers, perhaps not as accurately as NPD but I'm sure they were well aware of how they did relatively in April even before getting the NPD report.

Note: I do think MS's announcement of the kinectless bundle was in response to their April sales simply don't believe they got NPD report at least two days in advance though

I think the moved wasn't based on the NPD numbers. MS would know well how they're selling just based off restock requests from retailers and data the retailers would share directly.

They announced 2 days before the NPD numbers to control the message because it's a big enough move that it would down out the message of poor sales in the enthusiast press. So the GB crew would go "wow the fuckers finally did it" first rather than "wow those sales numbers are grim".

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

The kinectless XB1 was announced Tuesday May 13th, two days before the April NPD releases on Thursday May 15th

I thought they officially announced on the 14th - if I'm wrong, my bad.

Although they obviously knew their own numbers, what NPD provides them with are market numbers; without those their internal numbers are somewhat meaningless.

 

[Chindogg]

Yeah.

I just want to be included, that's all. If it has to be with an asterisk, then that's fine.

All ponies want to be included.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I thought they officially announced on the 14th - if I'm wrong, my bad.

Although they obviously knew their own numbers, what NPD provides them with are market numbers; without those their internal numbers are somewhat meaningless.

Internal numbers are certainly worth less than NPD numbers when it comes to external publication of said numbers [shareholders, PR, etc.] but it's perfectly rational to make decisions based on internal numbers.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Internal numbers are certainly worth less than NPD numbers when it comes to external publication of said numbers [shareholders, PR, etc.] but it's perfectly rational to make decisions based on internal numbers.

Well, to some extent - if internal numbers say a division is unprofitable, then sure, it makes sense to make decisions based on those numbers.
You wouldn't make decisions about overall market factors without knowing the overall market though - at most you make plans that are ready to execute as decisions when you have that knowledge.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Well, to some extent - if internal numbers say a division is unprofitable, then sure, it makes sense to make decisions based on those numbers.
You wouldn't make decisions about overall market factors without knowing the overall market though - at most you make plans that are ready to execute as decisions when you have that knowledge.

I guess I should've specified I meant short-term decisions made from a short-term look into your own internal numbers having already been aware of past external numbers. Nothing is of course in a vacuum. Basically I just meant cases like this

 

[Poeton]

The kinectless XB1 was announced Tuesday May 13th, two days before the April NPD releases on Thursday May 15th

So unless NPD now offers super awesome platinum subscribers reports 48 hours [or likely more to have time to prepare that PR announcement] then MS made that move without NPD info on that months sales

It seems irrelevant though because why would MS need to rely on NPD numbers to launch a PR preemptive strike? NPD is useful to have a respected 3rd party track your sales numbers and to use them for shareholders and the like. MS is more than capable of determining how its sales were in any given month before NPD gives out the numbers, perhaps not as accurately as NPD but I'm sure they were well aware of how they did relatively in April even before getting the NPD report.

Note: I do think MS's announcement of the kinectless bundle was in response to their April sales simply don't believe they got an NPD report at least two days in advance though

Since, Xbox one requires a download of the OS to even operate the Xbox one. I'm pretty sure they can track how many people have downloaded the OS.

Therefore, I'm pretty sure Microsoft has a very good idea of how many xboxes are sold in a month.

 

[Aquamarine]

I thought they officially announced on the 14th - if I'm wrong, my bad.

Although they obviously knew their own numbers, what NPD provides them with are market numbers; without those their internal numbers are somewhat meaningless.

Microsoft may perform internal sell-through estimates through channel checks and whatnot, but their internal methods for estimating the retail market can't compare to the extraordinarily accurate NPD Group data.

In that sense, NPD data is quite important for gauging market penetration and ultimately future projections of profitability. So yes, when Microsoft makes decisions, it's incredibly useful to have the full spectrum of sell-in and sell-through.

But I wouldn't say that their internal shipment numbers are "meaningless" without the corresponding market sell-through. Shipments are Microsoft's bottom line. If Wal-Mart + GameStop maintain a consistent level of shipment demand that's what's most important at the end of the day.

 

[EGOMON]

IIRC MS channel stuffed the 360 to try and reach their 10 million sold* faster after their 'first to 10 million wins' statement, but it was immediately obvious in their next shipment figures what they'd been doing as shipments dropped dramatically

Spoiler

and they didn't even hit the 10 million figure first

(*shipped / sold to retailers)

MS sleazy as usual i guess no one can hold them to it that way

 

[Into]

If its around 150-160k, then, shit, i mean that is looking grim.

That number can go lower next tracking period as the effects of the new 399 SKU are lessened and then what are we looking at?

 

[Eolz]

Damn, I underestimated in my predictions. Too bad.

 

[theprodigy]

hmm, looks like bumping Xbox One from 150k to 160k was a good move since I would assume it's slightly over 2x
now hopefully my other changes also worked out....

 

[Abdiel]

I stopped into the Gamestop near my house and talked about numbers with the Manager there, discussing differences in Best Buy/GS performance for the last two months. His store has 40 copies of Destiny for X1 reserved, and 55 for PS4 reserved, with 4 of the white PS4 bundles preordered. He's seen a much higher uptick of kinectless SKU X1s sold for last month, (a much higher percentage than what we saw in our store), but it hasn't been a constant thing, a universal increase in sales every week.

For comparison, the primary store I operate out of has 40 standard(Non limited/ghost) copies of Destiny for PS4 reserved, and 15 for the X1, with 10 White PS4's preordered. It's also one of the closest Best Buys to the Dixieland border, so no sales tax. (Last I checked we had like 40 copies of the MCC reserved, but most of those were done the week of E3.)

 

[SwiftDeath]

I stopped into the Gamestop near my house and talked about numbers with the Manager there, discussing differences in Best Buy/GS performance for the last two months. His store has 40 copies of Destiny for X1 reserved, and 55 for PS4 reserved, with 4 of the white PS4 bundles preordered. He's seen a much higher uptick of kinectless SKU X1s sold for last month, (a much higher percentage than what we saw in our store), but it hasn't been a constant thing, a universal increase in sales every week.

For comparison, the primary store I operate out of has 40 standard(Non limited/ghost) copies of Destiny for PS4 reserved, and 15 for the X1, with 10 White PS4's preordered. It's also one of the closest Best Buys to the Dixieland border, so no sales tax. (Last I checked we had like 40 copies of the MCC reserved, but most of those were done the week of E3.)

Best-Buy/Gamestop Crossover!!!!!

lol thanks as always

I can't wait until tomorrow. Did XB1 finally manage to outsell PS4? Did it perform admirably regardless? How is the Wii U doing with MK8 out? Did Vita at least sell in the 4 digits? I must know!

 

[theprodigy]

I stopped into the Gamestop near my house and talked about numbers with the Manager there, discussing differences in Best Buy/GS performance for the last two months. His store has 40 copies of Destiny for X1 reserved, and 55 for PS4 reserved, with 4 of the white PS4 bundles preordered. He's seen a much higher uptick of kinectless SKU X1s sold for last month, (a much higher percentage than what we saw in our store), but it hasn't been a constant thing, a universal increase in sales every week.

For comparison, the primary store I operate out of has 40 standard(Non limited/ghost) copies of Destiny for PS4 reserved, and 15 for the X1, with 10 White PS4's preordered. It's also one of the closest Best Buys to the Dixieland border, so no sales tax. (Last I checked we had like 40 copies of the MCC reserved, but most of those were done the week of E3.)

You were supposed to ask Gamestop dude about Wii U/Mario Kart 8 sales, damn it Abdiel!

 

[vinnygambini]

predictions am cry ;.;

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I have never seen PR or damage control start on the Wednesday.

I'd say this probably counts. PS4 > XB1 is basically a lock now.

 

[Kriken]

[XB1] 140k

Eh, I got close, probably should've gone closer to 150k though

 

[SwiftDeath]

I'd say this probably counts. PS4 > XB1 is basically a lock now.

*- Internal data based on retail calendar and sold through numbers

We're both right! MS sometimes do PR before Thursday but it seems to not be based on NPD data [unless I'm reading that wrong?]

But yes I am incorrect about the MS PR thing it would seem

 

[IAmRandom31]

Not formal but gonna guess 170k for X1 and 220k or so for PS4. 110k for Wii U.

 

[Abdiel]

Best-Buy/Gamestop Crossover!!!!!

lol thanks as always

I can't wait until tomorrow. Did XB1 finally manage to outsell PS4? Did it perform admirably regardless? How is the Wii U doing with MK8 out? Did Vita at least sell in the 4 digits? I must know!

I really have no confidence in Vita sales remaining a nice thing. We still have no consistency to the inventory. It's fucking terrible. Sigh. People want them, too. They ask.

As to the rest, I am curious too, since his gamestop trends obviously didn't exactly mirror ours, or even a close to 1:1 rate match.

You were supposed to ask Gamestop dude about Wii U/Mario Kart 8 sales, damn it Abdiel!

Sorry. @_@;

I only checked our system numbers for the Wii U stuff because I remembered to last time I did my sweep (when I posted that first message in the thread), it didn't occur to me to ask the GS guy about it when I was in the store.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

We're both right! MS sometimes do PR before Thursday but it seems to not be based on NPD data [unless I'm reading that wrong?]

I've definitely seen suspiciously timed PR from MS before, but this is the first time they explicitly call out their own tracking as the basis for their statement - if they don't get NPD data early, maybe they have their own version of creamsugar giving them a headsup ¯\(°_o)/¯

 

[theprodigy]

hey guys what if Microsoft's internal figures for May were like 90k *grabs tinfoil hat*


lol

 

[SwiftDeath]

I've definitely seen suspiciously timed PR from MS before, but this is the first time they explicitly call out their own tracking as the basis for their statement - if they don't get NPD data early, maybe they have their own version of creamsugar giving them a headsup ¯\(°_o)/¯

Well Aqua's mentioned a couple of time that they should have the ability to track retail channels via shipment patterns and the like but she makes it sound like it's not too accurate I guess?

hey guys what if Microsoft's internal figures for May were like 90k *grabs tinfoil hat*


lol

Suggesting that NPD will show XB1 at less than double May NPD numbers or that XB1 sold like 180k+ in June?

 

[theprodigy]

Well Aqua's mentioned a couple of time that they should have the ability to track retail channels via shipment patterns and the like but she makes it sound like it's not too accurate I guess?



Suggesting that NPD will show XB1 at less than double May NPD numbers or that XB1 sold like 180k+ in June?

I don't know, it was a joke anyway lol

 

[Aquamarine]

Well Aqua's mentioned a couple of time that they should have the ability to track retail channels via shipment patterns and the like but she makes it sound like it's not too accurate I guess?



Suggesting that NPD will show XB1 at less than double May NPD numbers or that XB1 sold like 180k+ in June?

Well, they have active relationships with all of the major retailers.

Call up Wal-Mart corporate and talk about how Xbox One sold at the retailer this month. Then call up GameStop corporate and talk about Xbox One there as well.

If they both give you approximate sales then boom, you have 55% of NPD sales right there.


Besides that, they can estimate Xbox One sales through new consoles activated in the USA in June. And they can also extrapolate out of precedent from shipments.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I stopped into the Gamestop near my house and talked about numbers with the Manager there, discussing differences in Best Buy/GS performance for the last two months. His store has 40 copies of Destiny for X1 reserved, and 55 for PS4 reserved, with 4 of the white PS4 bundles preordered. He's seen a much higher uptick of kinectless SKU X1s sold for last month, (a much higher percentage than what we saw in our store), but it hasn't been a constant thing, a universal increase in sales every week.

For comparison, the primary store I operate out of has 40 standard(Non limited/ghost) copies of Destiny for PS4 reserved, and 15 for the X1, with 10 White PS4's preordered. It's also one of the closest Best Buys to the Dixieland border, so no sales tax. (Last I checked we had like 40 copies of the MCC reserved, but most of those were done the week of E3.)

Btw are you allowed to talk about explicit numbers for your store with regards to the Wii U/MK8? Just curious haha.

 

[theprodigy]

Speaking of shipments, do you think the earlier channel stuffing from Microsoft will create a 2013 Q1 Wii U-like scenario where almost nothing is shipped?

 

[Jaxyfoo]

Worryingly I have a feeling that the increase stateside will be matched by a decrease in Europe. In the US there has been a price cut, but in Europe and specifically the UK, you could pick up XB1 with Kinect and Titanfall for roughly the same price as the PS4. Since the launch of kinectless at £349 most stores simply list that one, so in real terms it has been a price increase.

Last of us bundle is currently floating around for the same price as kinectless too, so big spike incomming no doubt. Then into Destiny, (Which at the moment is overpriced next to TLOU bundle in Europe,) and into Driveclub and all the Christmas games rush.

The question might well be is can Sony put 5 million consoles on shelves between now and xmas. If they can...

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jun-2014

1. PS4 - 217K
2. XB1 - 144K
3. 3DS - 103K
4. WIU - 95K
5. 360 - 60K
6. PS3 - 42K


I think GAF might've messed up on PS4, but what do I know!

 

[theprodigy]

Every time slasher or the other guy says "sell some wii us". I think they're about to say "sell some weed"

oh so THAT'S why the Wii U is failing in the US! /s

 

[SwiftDeath]

I think GAF might've messed up on PS4, but what do I know!

Thanks as always Donny!

I think 3DS is also probably too low, XB1 seems a tad low but not too bad

 

[ambientmystic]

Besides that, they can estimate Xbox One sales through new consoles activated in the USA in June.

This is a very amazing point and one that makes complete sense.

Since every XBone ever made and sold through has to undergo a mandatory one time online activation process before a user can even do anything useful with it, I'm sure that theres a MS held database somewhere which has a complete, up to the minute count of every single console ever activated, worldwide.

Using IP Geolocation and other means at their disposal, they could also figure out sold through counts in every single country which officially sells the console as well.

Using that count, they wouldn't even have to deal with the retailers for the sold-through amounts, heh.

 

[Bgamer90]

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jun-2014

1. PS4 - 217K
2. XB1 - 144K
3. 3DS - 103K
4. WIU - 95K
5. 360 - 60K
6. PS3 - 42K


I think GAF might've messed up on PS4, but what do I know!

PS4 and XB1 seem at least 20K too low. We'll find out tomorrow though.

_______________________________________

Based on precedent? It needs to be at least 160-170K.

If it's lower than Xbox 360's 2013 sales (141K), that would be concerning. Under 100K and we can start to bring Wii U sales into the discussion.

Seems to have reached that area (or higher) based on the news.

 

[Aquamarine]

Since it's now 12:15 AM in New York City, and The NPD Group is based in a New York City suburb, I can now officially say that it's NPD day!

Good luck to everyone. I look forward to all of the commotion! ;-)

 

[nib95]

Since it's now 12:15 AM in New York City, and The NPD Group is based in a NYC suburb, I can now officially say that it's NPD day!

Good luck to everyone. I look forward to all of the commotion! ;-)

Please if you can, try not to draw out the numbers too long with this one. Last results thread was pretty dull for a while with you and Creamsugar unusually arriving quite late to it! Appreciate the posts and information though, massively.

 

[SwiftDeath]

NPD DAY!!!!

Countdown until PR tends to start

 

[ambientmystic]

Please if you can, try not to draw out the numbers too long with this one. Last results thread was pretty dull for a while with you and Creamsugar unusually arriving quite late to it! Appreciate the posts and information though, massively.

The drawn out process serves a purpose. (To prevent the usual suspects from poaching the data earlier on when the thread is just opened).

 

[hepburn3d]

[PS4] 236K
[XB1] 99K

Dammit. Looks like I'll be about 60K off on my xb1 predictions

 

[noobie]

Have we got prediction from Patcher n Site that should not be named..
Wander where they lie

 

[Chobel]

Have we got prediction from Patcher n Site that should not be named..
Wander where they lie

Yes and yes

Pachter:

PS4: 255K
XB1: 150K
WIU: 67.5K
360: 65K
PS3: 42K

Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:


PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659

Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).

Last month's prediction results:

Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them


I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.

 

[michaelius]

if the PS4 beats the X1 in june then its over for X1 atleast until November, potentially the rest of the year even

More like till the end of generation or till emergency $100 price cut.

 

[noobie]

if the PS4 beats the X1 in june then its over for X1 atleast until November, potentially the rest of the year even

We have TLOU remaster in July. what we have in August? for any new console?

 

[jvm]

We have TLOU remaster in July. what we have in August? for any new console?

Madden? No idea if that game would have an advantage on either of the new consoles, but it's the big August game usually.

Note: I don't know if Madden is an August game or September game this year -- because if it falls late enough in August, then it may show up in the September retail month.

 

[SeanTSC]

We have TLOU remaster in July. what we have in August? for any new console?

August = Diablo 3 UEE (08/19), Madden (08/26) and Metro Redux (08/26) for new consoles. Also Plants Vs. Zombies Garden Warfare (08/19) for the PS4. Also, TLOU remastered isn't out till July 29th, so it's kind of more of an August game.

Also Sword Art Online HF for Vita and Tales of Xillia 2 for PS3, yay.