I was wondering why no one followed up.
I don't believe in Tannehill. He's fine, but he won't elevate that team. He's Schaub (when Schaub was good). Good quarterback, totally serviceable, can make most throws, not special. You either need a great quarterback or a special defense. Miami has neither. That's why I think their ceiling is 8 wins.
I think they will be significantly worse than that because they've gone with the double whammy of "get fucked" this off-season. New offense and a new offensive line. Colledge was done when he left Green Bay, Pouncey is a train wreck of a human and James is a rookie. Not real inspiring.
Add to that playing the NFC North (and getting the Bears and Lions on the road) and I just don't see how they win more than 6 games.
All of that seems fair enough.
I don't think Tannehill has earned more credit than what you're giving him but I do think there is still a chance his ceiling could be higher. He's one of the best QB's in the league when it comes to passing outside of the pocket and on the move and I think he will be doing that a lot more in this new offense. I also think he'll be running a lot more which could help diversify the offense even more. Sherman's play book was so vanilla, especially for a guy who has potential to be a dual threat like Tannehill.
You're right in that it's asking a lot for a new o-line and offense to come together in one offseason. That said, all indications seem to be pointing towards a substantially improved o-line, as these guys were all brought in specifically for the new zone blocking scheme. Don't discount Albert at LT, that is a massive upgrade over Martin/McKinnie from last year. And even though James is a rookie he has looked great so far and he's replacing Tyson freaking Clabo. To be honest I don't see how the line could be worse. Even Colledge still looks solid in pass blocking. And Pouncey might be a bad person but he's a heck of a center.
The AFC seems kind of weak again so I think Miami could pull off 9 or 10 wins potentially. They beat a lot of AFC playoff teams last year like Cincinatti, San Diego, Indy, and New England which tells me they are right in that mix, and that was with a historically bad o-line.
I don't know if the defense will be better or worse but it's a strong group. That will mostly depend on whether or not the LB's improve and how Finnegan looks this year but at worst the d-line is still stacked.
I'm not saying a disastrous season is outside the realm of possibility, though. I think the Dolphins are a big wildcard this year, lots of question marks, but as a fan I'm going to stay at least a little optimistic until reality convinces me not to.