In the Dreamcast thread, the OP explained the lifecycle of console software as:
First wave, Second wave, and Third Wave.
First wave: Early Adopters
Second Wave: Mid-Life Console
Third Wave: End of Console Lifecycle
The devs that stick it out and rely on young, cheap labor all get better as they work on a certain platform and create more sophisticated games.
IMO(since I dont work in the business please don't take anything I say as fact/absolutes), third party will pick up around 2016-2017. I know I'm crazy to expect third party, but NOJ isn't so stubborn as to piss off all third party publishers. Since BC exists on the Wii U(and frankly, I'm upset more retailers aren't pushing this fact out there more often!) and Sony/MS have to rely on HD Remasters/Definitive Collection stuff in order to satisfy the lack of BC, that will start to get real old really quick.