In the Dreamcast thread, the OP explained the lifecycle of console software as:
First wave, Second wave, and Third Wave.
First wave: Early Adopters
Second Wave: Mid-Life Console
Third Wave: End of Console Lifecycle
The devs that stick it out and rely on young, cheap labor all get better as they work on a certain platform and create more sophisticated games.
IMO(since I dont work in the business please don't take anything I say as fact/absolutes), third party will pick up around 2016-2017. I know I'm crazy to expect third party, but NOJ isn't so stubborn as to piss off all third party publishers. Since BC exists on the Wii U(and frankly, I'm upset more retailers aren't pushing this fact out there more often!) and Sony/MS have to rely on HD Remasters/Definitive Collection stuff in order to satisfy the lack of BC, that will start to get real old really quick.
They have tried hard. And spent a great deal of money doing so. And they're trying harder all the time. The question is whether it's too little too late.
Purchasing/funding exclusives is a short term solution. They're trying to increase their install base through these exclusives, which would make the platform more appealing to third parties. Third parties don't care about getting perks on a particular system for the most part. What they care about is making sure their titles have a palletable distribution circle in order to justify the expense of a port.
Yeah Nintendo is weird. I think that being traditional trying to court third parties like how Sony and Microsoft are doing isn't going to work, at least not by itself, which is why they're doing this partnership thing to shore up the number of games for their system. Then, through these partnerships, the third parties gain familiarity with the system, get to use Nintendo's IPs for extra exposure, Nintendo gets extra games, third parties mitigate some cost (I assume Nintendo is somewhat funding the development, given they want to have their games beyond a certain quality) and relationships and networks are formed. They're doing this because they are in an awkward position with their relationships to third parties, so it would require a non-traditional approach to get them back. Maybe if this goes well, third parties will come of their own accord (I kinda doubt this will happen though).
If worse comes to worse, Nintendo could always "remaster" their games for their next console. After all, if no one played the games on Wii U, then for all intents and purposes it's a new game for the new console audience.
If exclusives are a short term solution, than what would help them in the long run?
I think that if they keep pushing out exclusives on the WiiU they will end up being fine, they just need to have a regular schedule with no dead time.
First party games are one of the only things to break the catch-22 of "New consoles have no games so no one buys them, but no one wants to make games for it because there's no audience". Another thing that can break it, which happened with Xbone and PS4, is tech lust caused by a long-in-the-tooth console generation.