PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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ivysaur12 said:
I will put $20 on Clinton/Kaine vs. Walker/Rubio. 6/15/15.
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I'd probably agree with this. Not positive about the GOP ticket but I think Clinton will go with Kaine.

Kamala Harris or Cory Booker will be on the next Democratic ticket after Clinton.

What's the winning combo again? Kerry states + NM/NV/VA? Cakewalk with someone on Virginia on the ballot. NM might as well be called Safe Democrat by now, Nevada Lean.
 
I put $0 on a Clinton/Castro Vs Bush/Sandoval. Unlike most people who thinks the Republican clown car is a joke including Jeb, I take him as a serious threat to win the Presidency.

Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker unless Rubio or Walker goes for someone else outside of the field

The nominee wont be anyone else but either Rubio, Jeb or Walker.
 
I'm a bit torn on Clinton's running mate, but lean towards a Virginia politician. Castro seems to be a bit light on resume.

My hunch is that, at least in the electoral college, this is going to be a bit tighter than 2012, if only because of those whole "third election in a row for the same party" thing (and as a result of Hillary being a tier below Obama in terms of campaigning skill).

Still thinking ~300EVs. If Kerry states(246) + NM look solid(5), having a guaranteed Virginia(13) is worth gold.

Castro might be picked if the GOP ticket demonstrably changes the game. That's my guess. Thank Nayru that Hillary gets to pick second.

And on the GOP side, I'm still torn. A Florida politician is on the ticket no matter what. I'd say Bush-Kasich. His team seems to know that they need to play the map.
 
NeoXChaos said:
I put $0 on a Clinton/Castro Vs Bush/Sandoval. Unlike most people who thinks the Republican clown car is a joke including Jeb, I take him as a serious threat to win the Presidency.

Walker/Rubio or Rubio/Walker unless Rubio or Walker goes for someone else outside of the field

The nominee wont be anyone else but either Rubio, Jeb or Walker.
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I give Brian Sandoval a ton of credit for signing this tax increase but it means he has 0% chance of becoming the GOP VP candidate:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/06/01/nevada-tax-hike-sandoval-education/28309841/
 
Samarecarm said:
I'll put my imaginary dollars on Clinton/Gillibrand and ... I'm going to say Walker/Martinez, but Walker/Rubio is a reasonable guess too.

Clinton wins in a landslide.
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Gillibrand is my girl. I was iffy when she took office, but she's long since won me over. She's definitely going to be a strong contender next cycle.
 
BTW.. I'm sticking with my theory that the gender gap will be the under-reported story of the election. Obama won among all female voters by a nice margin (12%), but hidden in that stat is the fact that he lost among white female voters by a similarly solid margin (14%).

If Hillary merely draws even with white females, she's got this - even if minority turnout is slightly down from 2008/2012.

The Wall Street Journal recently mentioned this..
BN-IX182_Clinto_G_20150612184123.jpg
 
Gillibrand's going to do well in the next cycle, whether that's 2020 or 2024.

Martinez has no buzz for a candidate that's as strong as she is. It's very odd.
 
HylianTom said:
BTW.. I'm sticking with my theory that the gender gap will be the under-reported story of the election. Obama won among all female voters by a nice margin (12%), but hidden in that stat is the fact that he lost among white female voters by a similarly solid margin (14%).

If Hillary merely draws even with white females, she's got this - even if minority turnout is slightly down from 2008/2012.

The Wall Street Journal recently mentioned this..
BN-IX182_Clinto_G_20150612184123.jpg
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I can't believe Obama lost with white women. But I guess there are a lot of older, conservative white women voters out there. Still feels odd.
 
Listening to Hillary's announcement speech was interesting. Unlike Obama in 2008 who emphasised national unity, Hillary has emphasised fighting for her constituency. She's explicity running on a more combative campaign, certainly a response to the last 6-7 years.

Jeb Bush is still tethered to a great deal of republican orthodoxy, but is making a very explicit appeal to hispanics the way his brother did in 2000.
 
TheHeretic said:
Listening to Hillary's announcement speech was interesting. Unlike Obama in 2008 who emphasised national unity, Hillary has emphasised fighting for her constituency. She's explicity running on a more combative campaign, certainly a response to the last 6-7 years.

Jeb Bush is still tethered to a great deal of republican orthodoxy, but is making a very explicit appeal to hispanics the way his brother did in 2000.
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Hillary is very much fighting to keep the Obama coalition going. She wants to show them that she's of that same mold despite her past, it's a very smart move. The GOP are going to say incredibly stupid things in this election and this will allow her to not only slam them with it, but paint them as the other and relics of the past.
 
B-Dubs said:
Hillary is very much fighting to keep the Obama coalition going. She wants to show them that she's of that same mold despite her past, it's a very smart move. The GOP are going to say incredibly stupid things in this election and this will allow her to not only slam them with it, but paint them as the other and relics of the past.
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She certainly isn't going to be running on Obama's record. We have no evidence thats her strategy, and a great deal of evidence it isn't. Obama isn't very popular and running a successor campaign isn't likely.

Her voters are younger, browner, poorer, less likely to be married and tend to live in cities. She's fighting to allocate increasingly limited resources to those people over the demographic of older, whiter, wealthier, rural voters who dislike her and will be voting for the republicans.

Its an ugly, petty time in American politics.
 
TheHeretic said:
She certainly isn't going to be running on Obama's record. We have no evidence thats her strategy, and a great deal of evidence it isn't. Obama isn't very popular and running a successor campaign isn't likely.

Her voters are younger, browner, poorer, less likely to be married and tend to live in cities. She's fighting to allocate increasingly limited resources to those people over the demographic of older, whiter, wealthier, rural voters who dislike her and will be voting for the republicans.

Its an ugly, petty time in American politics.
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She opened her last rally speech praising Obama's record, both on the economy and on health care.
 
TheHeretic said:
She certainly isn't going to be running on Obama's record. We have no evidence thats her strategy, and a great deal of evidence it isn't. Obama isn't very popular and running a successor campaign isn't likely.

Her voters are younger, browner, poorer, less likely to be married and tend to live in cities. She's fighting to allocate increasingly limited resources to those people over the demographic of older, whiter, wealthier, rural voters who dislike her and will be voting for the republicans.

Its an ugly, petty time in American politics.
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I feel like we aren't watching the same speeches.
 
thepotatoman said:
She opened her last rally speech praising Obama's record, both on the economy and on health care.
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Obama is overwhelmingly popular with democratic voters, so of course she's going to praise him in the primary. The question is will her policy proposals be a continuation of Obama's, effectively running for a third Obama term, or will she distance herself from queasy topics such as Obamacare and run from his record. Congressional democrats decided in 2014 to run from his record, and I certainly expect HIllary will do the same.
 
TheHeretic said:
Obama is overwhelmingly popular with democratic voters, so of course she's going to praise him in the primary. The question is will her policy proposals be a continuation of Obama's, effectively running for a third Obama term, or will she distance herself from queasy topics such as Obamacare and run from his record. Congressional democrats decided in 2014 to run from his record, and I certainly expect HIllary will do the same.
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Look what happened from congressional dems, they lost. If the democratic base turns out and this is a high turn out election Hilary wins, she won't accomplish that by going to the right of Obama. Unless the economy tanks between now and the election, she will run on his record. I'm not sure what election you're watching but it isn't the one we've seen so far.
 
TheHeretic said:
Obama is overwhelmingly popular with democratic voters, so of course she's going to praise him in the primary. The question is will her policy proposals be a continuation of Obama's, effectively running for a third Obama term, or will she distance herself from queasy topics such as Obamacare and run from his record. Congressional democrats decided in 2014 to run from his record, and I certainly expect HIllary will do the same.
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I think once we hear the result in Burwell and the ensuing drama, she will either embrace ACA and strengthen it, or if it falls, and people are against fixing it, she will then propose improvements/solutions to make it right.

But overall, she needs to continue his legacy in many areas and go even more populist in some.
 
NeoXChaos said:
If she wins the popular vote and House popular vote like Obama did and still is unable to get House, then I am going to Diablos. The funny thing about NJ is that Christie's Lt Governor who will probably be the nominee in 2017 is going to have a hard time distancing herself from him. NJ is doing terrible right now and Christie isnt doing any favors with a failed Presidential Campaign hangover bleeding into 2017.

EDIT: If GAF is around in 10 years. I am going to keep Aaron's post as reference to see if it pans out overtime.
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His Lt. Governor (Kim Guadagno) was one of my teachers in law school.

She was either very good at hiding her beliefs at the school, or very good at hiding her beliefs now that she's Lt. Governor.

However, I can tell you, that she definitely had a charisma problem. She doesn't seem like the kind of candidate who can win.
 
Latest poll (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ben-cars...nbc/ben-carson-tops-gop-field-new-2016-poll):

Ben Carson -- 11%
Scott Walker -- 10%
Jeb Bush -- 9%
Marco Rubio -- 9%

That's right--after all the stupid statements, Ben Carson is leading. This primary season is going to be insane.

Still confident Walker's numbers will drop once primaries start. The guy dodged every question given to him over the past two months.
 
Plinko said:
Latest poll (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ben-cars...nbc/ben-carson-tops-gop-field-new-2016-poll):

Ben Carson -- 11%
Scott Walker -- 10%
Jeb Bush -- 9%
Marco Rubio -- 9%

That's right--after all the stupid statements, Ben Carson is leading. This primary season is going to be insane.

Still confident Walker's numbers will drop once primaries start. The guy dodged every question given to him over the past two months.
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He's only reaping the benefit of the more intelligent/moderate/whatever republican voters being divided among the other three. He's the standard bearer for crazy this time around, like Bachman was in 2012. If Trump actually enters today maybe he'll take a few percentage points away from Carson.
 
Chichikov said:
Holy shit guys, the Trump speech is AMAZING.
WHY DIDN'T WE TAKE THE OIL WITH US WHEN WE LEFT IRAQ?

Check mate, liberals.
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:lol

This will be fantastic.

He's legitimately asking why we didn't steal oil from the country we were trying to help?
 
Plinko said:
:lol

This will be fantastic.

He's legitimately asking why we didn't steal oil from the country we were trying to help?
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This is no joke, you got to watch it, better stream -
http://www.tmz.com/2015/06/16/donald-trump-presidential-announcement-livestream/

He's totally improvising shit and it's everything you could've hoped for and more.

Edit: he's plugging his buildings again, with addresses.
Also banks begged him to get a loan but he's like, no fuck you, debt is bad.
 
He's going to build a great wall in Mexico and he'll make Mexico pay for it.
Really.
This is something he said.

Also, he made a promise that he won't go on bicycle races.
 
Poodlestrike said:
He's not wrong tho
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Of course he is. Comparing the banning of the use of transfats by commercial manufacturers to the illicit drug trade is dumb. This ruling has been anticipated for years, manufacturers have been scaling back and eliminating transfats in processed foods since 2006.

But never mind that, Holy Trump!
 
Still, Federal Elections Commission records show that, as of noon on Tuesday, Trump has not yet filed any paperwork regarding his candidacy or finances. He has 15 days to do so.
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Ye gods, will he make the deadline?!

Please, Trump, send the fax!
 
Plinko said:
Latest poll (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ben-cars...nbc/ben-carson-tops-gop-field-new-2016-poll):

Ben Carson -- 11%
Scott Walker -- 10%
Jeb Bush -- 9%
Marco Rubio -- 9%

That's right--after all the stupid statements, Ben Carson is leading. This primary season is going to be insane.

Still confident Walker's numbers will drop once primaries start. The guy dodged every question given to him over the past two months.
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Cain led last election cycle for a time. So did Newt.


Inebriated said:
Because we've seen how well prohibition of drugs works, should be no issues with prohibiting the second most consumed drug in the country.
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Black market for trans fats incoming.
 
Mike M said:
Of course he is. Comparing the banning of the use of transfats by commercial manufacturers to the illicit drug trade is dumb. This ruling has been anticipated for years, manufacturers have been scaling back and eliminating transfats in processed foods since 2006.

But never mind that, Holy Trump!
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Oh, I thought you/he meant the cigarette thing, which is a pretty good comparison.
 
Mike M said:
Of course he is. Comparing the banning of the use of transfats by commercial manufacturers to the illicit drug trade is dumb. This ruling has been anticipated for years, manufacturers have been scaling back and eliminating transfats in processed foods since 2006.

But never mind that, Holy Trump!
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I thought he was referring to cigarettes, not trans fats.
 
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