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[VendettaRed07]

Warren completely screwed her chances going forward I think. Her favorables are much lower than they should be.

I think she should have just accepted that she couldn't really walk back many of her comments on Hillary and just endorsed Bernie. Almost everyone in the country say that early 2000s video of her really cutting into Hillary's character. So her just not endorsing and becoming mostly quiet until Sanders has basically lost made her look like a hypocrite who was just looking out for her own self interests rather than siding with the person she much more aligned with to a lot of people

I think her favorables and strength going forward would be much better right now had she not tried to have it both ways last cycle

 

[Y2Kev]

Who is even making this claim?



This actually makes very little sense. I thought Clinton was a terrible candidate with low popularity across the board. What, specifically, made her way better than the most popular candidate in the country with African-Americans? Especially when she was probably still not as popular as Bernie with them? This is actually something that deserves some real consideration!

Hot sauce in her purse obviously...

 

[Basileus777]

Warren completely screwed her chances going forward I think. Her favorables are much lower than they should be.

I think she should have just accepted that she couldn't really walk back many of her comments on Hillary and just endorsed Bernie. Almost everyone in the country say that early 2000s video of her really cutting into Hillary's character. So her just not endorsing and becoming mostly quiet until Sanders has basically lost made her look like a hypocrite who was just looking out for her own self interests rather than siding with the person she much more aligned with to a lot of people

I think her favorables and strength going forward would be much better right now had she not tried to have it both ways last cycle

I don't think Warren would have ever been a good Presidential candidate. And I don't think she wants to be President.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hillary Clinton also had high favorability ratings three years out from an election.

My concern with Bernie Sanders is that he's never faced the rough and tumble of a competitive general election campaign. The Clinton camp treated him with kids' gloves because they wanted his support. We're already aware he's done, or let some unethical things happen while in office - I wouldn't say anymore than an ordinary politician, but when your whole schtick is that you're not an ordinary politician that's kind of a problem.

 

[RumbleHumble]

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
.@foxandfriends We are not looking to fill all of those positions. Don't need many of them - reduce size of government. @IngrahamAngle
8:26 AM · Aug 29, 2017

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

Trump doesn't like jobs. Who knew?

 

[kirblar]

Warren completely screwed her chances going forward I think. Her favorables are much lower than they should be.

I think she should have just accepted that she couldn't really walk back many of her comments on Hillary and just endorsed Bernie. Almost everyone in the country say that early 2000s video of her really cutting into Hillary's character. So her just not endorsing and becoming mostly quiet until Sanders has basically lost made her look like a hypocrite who was just looking out for her own self interests rather than siding with the person she much more aligned with.

I think her favorables and strength going forward would be much better right now had she not tried to have it both ways last cycle

She deliberately didn't run because she shared many of the exact same issues that Hillary did as a candidate - an older unabashedly liberal woman who's been a punching bag of the far right for a decade.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Warren's been the target of sustained right-wing attacks. That's a big factor hurting her favorability.

 

[Owzers]

How about someone asks him to run down those positions and explain why we don't need each one of them individually?

But but but the administration said it was because of democratic obstruction. Another lie fades away.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Simple question: Why do you think Bernie lost the Democratic primary?

Unknown compared to clinton, idea among democrats that clinton was stronger against trump (boy was this wrong), history of clinton with many communities, elite support.

Lots of things.

Warren's been the target of sustained right-wing attacks. That's a big factor hurting her favorability.

Yes, republicans attack warren and dislike her (also she's a woman)

Lots of republicans still think of "crazy" bernie as some non-threat they can red-bait

 

[VendettaRed07]

She deliberately didn't run because she shared many of the exact same issues that Hillary did as a candidate - an older unabashedly liberal woman who's been a punching bag of the far right for a decade.

Right. But honestly, I think she could have made that much better by distancing herself from Hillary.

Like sure, it's not exactly fair, especially given that she likely believed there wouldn't be a reason to given she, like everyone else, thought she would win and was the strongest candidate going forward.. but I think it would have helped given where we are at now for her to have made different decisions in the past

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Who is even making this claim?

Lots of people have.

This actually makes very little sense. I thought Clinton was a terrible candidate with low popularity across the board. What, specifically, made her way better than the most popular candidate in the country with African-Americans? Especially when she was probably still not as popular as Bernie with them? This is actually something that deserves some real consideration!

History, cultural affiliations (southerner), elite support, belief bernie would lose if nominated, smears against bernie

Bernie also just didn't campaign like he should have. Just like clinton fucked up in the Midwest. That doesn't mean she couldn't have won there

 

[BoogieWoogie]

https://twitter.com/TasneemN/status/902578987284787200

Trump thanking FEMA dir William Brock Long: "A man who really has become very famous on television in the last couple of days."

Brock is done for!!

 

[kirblar]

Unknown compared to clinton, idea among democrats that clinton was stronger against trump (boy was this wrong), history of clinton with many communities, elite support.

Lots of things.

What you don't have on there that needs to be: His messaging when speaking to minority groups (especially black ones, because they're a huge % of the Dem primary base) sucked. It sucked hard. Elizabeth Warren is routinely able to integrate "social" and "economic" issues together cleanly. Sanders is not and it prevented him from making the types of inroads he would need to in order to actually win the nomination.

Being an unknown candidate facing Hillary Clinton is not an innate death sentence. (See: Obama, Barack) But if you're a candidate coming from the second most rural, third whitest state, you're going to have to quickly adapt your messaging to not be unintentionally offputting to people listening to it who have not been your traditional base of support, and he just wasn't able to do that.

 

[jtb]

I think 2016 was Warren's chance and she missed it. Bernie wouldn't have run if Warren did. I also think Hillary not naming Warren as her VP was a huge missed opportunity.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I think 2016 was Warren's chance and she missed it. Bernie wouldn't have run if Warren did. I also think Hillary not naming Warren as her VP was a huge missed opportunity.

This.

Warren banked on Hillary giving her the VP spot, but she didn't, and how she handled the primary didn't pay off.

I also think I actually remember Warren telling Bernie to run because "someone from our wing should run and it's not going to be me"

 

[smokeymicpot]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/263280672146337792

Not only giving out money, but Obama will be seen today standing in water and rain like he is a real President --- don't fall for it.

Tweet for everything.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think 2016 was Warren's chance and she missed it. Bernie wouldn't have run if Warren did. I also think Hillary not naming Warren as her VP was a huge missed opportunity.

Agreed. Draft Bernie Sanders and SandersForPresident were both off-shoots of the Run, Warren, Run group after it became clear Warren wasn't going to run. Sanders would never have got off the ground if Warren had run.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

What you don't have on there that needs to be: His messaging when speaking to minority groups (especially black ones, because they're a huge % of the Dem primary base) sucked. It sucked hard. Elizabeth Warren is routinely able to integrate "social" and "economic" issues together cleanly. Sanders is not and it prevented him from making the types of inroads he would need to in order to actually win the nomination.

Being an unknown candidate facing Hillary Clinton is not an innate death sentence. (See: Obama, Barack) But if you're a candidate coming from the second most rural, third whitest state, you're going to have to quickly adapt your messaging to not be unintentionally offputting to people listening to it who have not been your traditional base of support, and he just wasn't able to do that.

This idea that it was "off-putting" really doesn't hold much weight with me. Unless you can pull somenumbers that black voters thought sanders would be bad on those issues and that's why they voted for clinton it seems like projecting a desire for something rather than something that has support.

And point to barack is weird since, he lost the vote count to clinton....

That's pushing more towards bernie had a tactical and campaign problem rather than him being "off-putting" to minority voters.

There's a large difference between not attracting voters and having them vote for someone else and pushing them to support someone else. Too often you guys make the argument for the later.

 

[pigeon]

History, cultural affiliations (southerner), elite support, belief bernie would lose if nominated, smears against bernie

Bernie also just didn't campaign like he should have. Just like clinton fucked up in the Midwest. That doesn't mean she couldn't have won there

So...your theory is that Hillary Clinton, the superpredator herself, was a uniquely effective candidate for black voters, because of their comfort with her over her long political history and her background as an upper-class white Southern woman? Which is why they turned out so well for her in the general?

This is what I mean when you say you need to think about this more. This is a catechism you learned to avoid having to think about what happened, not an actual explanation.

 

[kirblar]

This idea that it was "off-putting" really doesn't hold much weight with me. Unless you can pull somenumbers that black voters thought sanders would be bad on those issues and that's why they voted for clinton it seems like projecting a desire for something rather than something that has support.

And point to barack is weird since, he lost the vote count to clinton....

That's pushing more towards bernie had a tactical and campaign problem rather than him being "off-putting" to minority voters.

There's a large difference between not attracting voters and having them vote for someone else and pushing them to support someone else. Too often you guys make the argument for the later.

I'm pointing to Obama because he won. Clinton was not unbeatable in 2016, but Sanders did not do what he needed in order to beat her.

The line Obama likes about "Insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting different results" is important here. If you don't recognize that Sanders actively fucked up in some areas and could have done things differently, you'll continue to run into the same problems w/ similar candidates in the future.

Using language that accidentally alienates people is a campaign problem as well as a candidate problem.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think a fairly significant one was always going to be:

1. Black people stood to lose the most from a Republican presidency.
2. Conventional wisdom held that Clinton was the candidate most likely to prevent a Republican presidency.
Therefore 3. Black voters were more likely to vote for Clinton.

It's easier to be a gambler when you're white.

This can explain why black favourability of Sanders is so high (higher than Clinton at present), and yet why he did so poorly - my approval ratings for "having a million dollars" are pretty high, but I don't buy many lottery tickets!

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

How about someone asks him to run down those positions and explain why we don't need each one of them individually?

"If I don't know what they do, they must not be important."

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Historically speaking, does it hurt politicians when they try to tie unrelated legilsation to emergency relief bills?

Im worried the republicans are going to put defunding of planned parenthood into the houston relief or some bullshit like that.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Also, regardless of which of the democratic women run in 2020, I think all of them will avoid "I'm with her", "First woman President", rhetoric like the plague. We'll likely see a Obama like course correction where they will downplay or deflect any time anyone brings it up. Because it ultimately was a net negative because it didn't help improve her favorables or gain her votes with suburban women like she thought it would. Think it makes more men dislike you then it gets women to flip for you

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Brock is done for!!

Are you serious?

 

[Fenderputty]

No, he's literally not good at remembering words or saying them. Cmon.

This again just proves that people are strongly invested in the capitalist fallacy that Trump's success must necessarily imply his merit. Anybody can look at Trump's behavior for five minutes and understand that he is not intelligent.

Forgetting words seems to be irreverent in the context of being a successful snake oil salesman. Somehow I think you understood this but decided to comment anyway.

Like I want to give the man credit for anything. And like saying he's a good con man is some compliment.

I'm taking shots the the people who think bernie sucks with minorities rather than clinton just being better last year

At least you were clear lol

 

[Mizerman]

This idea that it was "off-putting" really doesn't hold much weight with me. Unless you can pull somenumbers that black voters thought sanders would be bad on those issues and that's why they voted for clinton it seems like projecting a desire for something rather than something that has support.

And point to barack is weird since, he lost the vote count to clinton....

That's pushing more towards bernie had a tactical and campaign problem rather than him being "off-putting" to minority voters.

There's a large difference between not attracting voters and having them vote for someone else and pushing them to support someone else. Too often you guys make the argument for the later.

And you do not think that's a huge issue? Because those errors must been off-putting enough for Bernie not to win. It's not like Hillary is some unbeatable boss character, but Bernie didn't do a good enough job in his campaign. If someone could flub something like that during a primary, how can I put my faith in someone like that during the general?

 

[kirblar]

I think a fairly significant one was always going to be:

1. Black people stood to lose the most from a Republican presidency.
2. Conventional wisdom held that Clinton was the candidate most likely to prevent a Republican presidency.
Therefore 3. Black voters were more likely to vote for Clinton.

It's easier to be a gambler when you're white.

This can explain why black favourability of Sanders is so high (higher than Clinton at present), and yet why he did so poorly - my approval ratings for "having a million dollars" are pretty high, but I don't buy many lottery tickets!

This is accurate- though "2." is incomplete here, in addition to CW, these types of risk-averse voters are more likely to pick the more moderate candidate in the race. (Obama ran to Clinton's right.) In addition to racial differences/preferences, age almost certainly plays a part here as well, due to older voters having more awareness of what happened to the Dems post-LBJ. Thus partially explaining Bernie's declining support on multiple axes when looking at young->old and white->black.

 

[lush]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/263280672146337792

Not only giving out money, but Obama will be seen today standing in water and rain like he is a real President --- don't fall for it.

Tweet for everything.

The guy planned for everything.

This one versus the one you linked. Which is it?

Perfect one for the present:

and when the gas prices spike here soon

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So...your theory is that Hillary Clinton, the superpredator herself, was a uniquely effective candidate for black voters, because of their comfort with her over her long political history and her background as an upper-class white Southern woman? Which is why they turned out so well for her in the general?

This is what I mean when you say you need to think about this more. This is a catechism you learned to avoid having to think about what happened, not an actual explanation.

No that's not my theory.

I don't think they hold those views as you describe them

I have thought about it a lot. I made many of the same arguments last year you make.

 

[Box of Kittens]

And point to barack is weird since, he lost the vote count to clinton....

Well, if you count Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot then yes, although you also have to account for the distorting effect of caucuses on popular vote totals. And certainly if we're talking in the context of the African-American vote, Obama won decisively.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

And point to barack is weird since, he lost the vote count to clinton....

This isn't true. He wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.

 

[whyamihere]

@Carrasquillo
Texas Democrat on rumors that Trump could end DACA today: "If he comes to Texas and does this shit, Jesus Christ."

.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It's just a shame that conventional wisdom sucked - oh, but for the benefit of hindsight! If we only we'd known what we do now, we could be complaining about how President Sanders was failing to accomplish anything and sinking in the polls in the face of Republican obstructionism...

 

[Sirpopopop]

Popularity tallies 3 years out are fairly useless.

Clinton was still fairly strong as of 2014:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page.../08/National-Politics/Polling/release_352.xml

Now in 2017, she's completely in the gutter.

As an aside: NYCMetsfan has yet to point out these horrific smears that the Clinton campaign was painting Bernie with that were incredibly effective to the point that he's the most popular politician today.

It's just a shame that conventional wisdom sucked - oh, but for the benefit of hindsight! If we only we'd known what we do now, we could be complaining about how President Sanders was failing to accomplish anything and sinking in the polls in the face of Republican obstructionism...

Or Trump could have red scared people to death in the face of Bernie instead of using him as a prop to attack the "corruption" of Democrats.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

And you do not think that's a huge issue? Because those errors must been off-putting enough for Bernie not to win. It's not like Hillary is some unbeatable boss character, but Bernie didn't do a good enough job in his campaign. If someone could flub something like that during a primary, how can I put my faith in someone like that during the general?

Italicized, yes. Its the same problem clinton had in the 2008 primary and 2016 general. They're why she lost. That doesn't mean she has to lose and can't win.

Underlined, no. Again, the reason people vote for someone doesn't have to be they dislike the other person. They can have strong reasons for support, some of which I've outlined, history, strength in the general, feeling like clinton would better at foreign policy, etc.

Bolded, This is kind of my point, your supporting my conclusion that there were likely other reasons rather than this idea that bernie was weak or bad on race that caused african americans to NOT VOTE FOR HIM.



Saying "Bernie lost in the South, largely due to african americans voting for clinton. Clinton supporters say this is due to Bernie being bad or weak on racial issues. Thus, Bernie will lose these voters in the future, unless he gets "better" on racial issues.

IMO isn't supported and depends on the assumption that that claim, was the specific reason African Americans and other minority groups made their decision to vote for Clinton. I'm saying there's a lot of evidence and alternate theories that weaken that assumption. If you can prove or provide more support for the clinton supporters claims then I'm more likely to belief that's the case.

I'm not saying that him, improving won't help. I'm just contesting that was the deciding factor. (In fact I think its far more likely you can make the issue that many voters voted for clinton on the feeling she'd be better on the economy than bernie)

Spoiler

I'm studying for the LSAT so yes I tried to do my best to turn this into a logical reasoning type question

This isn't true. He wasn't on the ballot in Michigan.

He lost the vote count to clinton.

Well, if you count Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot then yes, although you also have to account for the distorting effect of caucuses on popular vote totals. And certainly if we're talking in the context of the African-American vote, Obama won decisively.

I think your missing my point. obama won largely because he played the game far better than Clinton who had morons who didn't understand the caucuses or superdelegate system as well as his campaign did. I thought this was fairly well established wisdom.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

.

Is this something he was actually going to do today?

 

[BoogieWoogie]

Are you serious?

Of course not.

 

[Aaron Strife]

.

Joaquin needs to take the plunge for governor. There was some article about Joaquin being worried that such a move could hurt Julian's 2020 prospects, to which I ask how could anyone be that delusional as to think he has any...

Veto power in Texas would have huge consequences for redistricting. The 2000-2010 cycle has compromise maps and Democrats were one seat away from a tie in the State House after 2008 when their presidential candidate still lost by double digits. Do it, Joaquin.

 

[Abinash117]

If Bernie decides to run he'll adjust his strategy - he won't be much of a populist I think. Many people would want to have someone that would restore a sense of normalcy and make sure someone like Trump won't happen again. I don't think during 2020 a large part of the voter population is going to prioritize the need to do something about the wealthy elite and big banks. Most voters seeking to vote against Trump probably would want some that can carry themselves like a president. Someone that is a fighter would likely be seen unfavorably. If Bernie were to run again his message wouldn't be close to his message from 2016.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Most people fooled by him are actively looking to be fooled. Plus, public perception is bolstered by a media trained to pick apart statements by officials for meaning and impact on future policy, since his utterances have neither of those things, the media analysis tries to impart a deeper meaning on them. Folks like Haberman give him headlines that ask if his strategy on X will be effective, yet they know from interviews that he's a drooling toddler unable to say anything of meaning.

I wonder if we'll ever see publications hit the Conway limit and just give up on talking to Trump about anything. Nothing he says has any predictive value as to what he'll do.

 

[sphagnum]

If Bernie decides to run he'll adjust his strategy - he won't be much of a populist I think. Many people would want to have someone that would restore a sense of normalcy and make sure someone like Trump won't happen again. I don't think during 2020 a large part of the voter population is going to prioritize the need to do something about the wealthy elite and big banks. Most voters seeking to vote against Trump probably would want some that can carry themselves like a president. Someone that is a fighter would likely be seen unfavorably. If Bernie were to run again his message wouldn't be close to his message from 2016.

There is no way in hell that Bernie would not rail against banks and rich people. It's his core.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

The guy planned for everything.

This one versus the one you linked. Which is it?


Perfect one for the present:


and when the gas prices spike here soon

I've already noticed gas prices in Dallas in some places go up a good 10-15 cents a gallon.

 

[Prof. Bathtub]

I wonder if we'll ever see publications hit the Conway limit and just give up on talking to Trump about anything. Nothing he says has any predictive value as to what he'll do.

Well, companies theoretically unbeholden to the public disassociated themselves from the guy following Very Fine People, but media outlets are willing to let the nazi stuff slide if he resets. I guess they'll stay because of the Train Wreck logic that kept Spicer's factless conferences on the air because of "good ratings", that weren't actually better than any other item in that timeslot.

 

[RustyNails]

Is Paris Dennard the absolute worst Trump toadie? I cant believe this guy worships Trump.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I don't think they hold those views as you describe them

You should talk to more Southern people of color. Sanders absolutely could've done better here because Clinton was vulnerable as hell on some of that stuff.

But I'd rather avoid it. Clinton was a bad choice as a prior loser and Sanders is too, in addition to his age. Dems win when they run people with very short records who can still project competence.

 

[Box of Kittens]

I think your missing my point. obama won largely because he played the game far better than Clinton who had morons who didn't understand the caucuses or superdelegate system as well as his campaign did. I thought this was fairly well established wisdom.

I mean, sure, Obama had a much better team than Clinton. You could argue one of the greatest contributions of Clinton's 2008 campaign was destroying Mark Penn's reputation as a strategist once and for all. But it's still misleading to say that Clinton won the vote count when it's based on ignoring caucuses and Michigan's de facto straw poll where Obama wasn't even on the ballot. If all caucuses were replaced with primaries and the nominee were chosen by a simple popular vote, it's unlikely that the 2008 or 2016 nomination would be any different. Therefore saying "Obama lost the vote count" doesn't really make much sense as a response to the notion that being less known isn't a death sentence or at the very least requires more context and elaboration. It's hard to get the point of one sentence arguments.

Certainly many factors go into who wins an election, especially a primary which has its own dynamics. And being led by the dynamic duo of Weaver and Devine certainly didn't help Sanders (not that Clinton's team wasn't without its own problems, as we saw in the general). I would even agree that Sanders would be a formidable 2020 candidate if he improved his strategy with respect to the South in particular. Of course, if we acknowledge that vote counts are the result of multiple factors, we should note that favorability ratings are as well (name recognition, quantity and intensity of attacks, etc.)

 

[teiresias]

If Bernie decides to run he'll adjust his strategy - he won't be much of a populist I think. Many people would want to have someone that would restore a sense of normalcy and make sure someone like Trump won't happen again. I don't think during 2020 a large part of the voter population is going to prioritize the need to do something about the wealthy elite and big banks. Most voters seeking to vote against Trump probably would want some that can carry themselves like a president. Someone that is a fighter would likely be seen unfavorably. If Bernie were to run again his message wouldn't be close to his message from 2016.

But I was told when Clinton had even a slight change in position that she was a liar and disingenuous. Good to know that only applies to Hillary/

 

[Blader]

a) Bernie won't be running in 2020 because Elizabeth Warren will probably stalk him 24/7 if he entertains the idea.

Why would that matter at all? Bernie is probably electable than Warren.

Joaquin needs to take the plunge for governor. There was some article about Joaquin being worried that such a move could hurt Julian's 2020 prospects, to which I ask how could anyone be that delusional as to think he has any...

If Joaquin Castro would pass on running for governor because he's seriously concerned about it impacting his nobody brother's presidential ambitions, then he's clearly too stupid for me to get behind as a candidate for anything. Talk about entitlement.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I also think Mike Pence's strength in 2020 is underrated as well. His favorables are really high and I think that Trump has lowered standards so much that should Pence become President at any point everything he says and does will look so amazing and Presidential by comparison

Our media is so desperate to write "he became president today" about Trump any chance they get. Imagine what they'll do with president Pence who I'm sure can manage to give a speech without descending into madness