balladofwindfishes
Member
If Pence became president for any reason other than Trump dying, he isn't going into 2020 strongly at all.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Telling you guys, Klobuchar is a dark horse for 2020. Her entire record is that everyone likes her and likes working with her. She's the most productive Senator in the country and is sufficiently mainstream liberal on just about every issue. Unlike Clinton however she's spent her career being pretty anonymous to the national public.
Here's a special election to look out for: Georgia Republican State Senator Hunter Hill is resigning his seat to focus on a run for governor, setting up a special election in a district that went from 53-46 Romney to 56-40 Clinton. Hill only won reelection last year 52-48.
GoldenEye 007
Member
Didn't he also step aside in the senate race? Ceding to Beto O'Rourke?
Every time I take a break for a few days I come back to three pages of this shit.
VendettaRed07
Member
Agree with this. If Franken or Bernie don't run (or if Harris/Gillibrand impress me) I'll probably vote her. I really like her rn
Box of Kittens
Banned
Pence's favorables are pretty mediocre. He's basically even. That looks good next to Trump, Clinton, Pelosi, Ryan, McConnell, and Schumer, but that says more about them (or in some cases the positions they hold) than it really does about Pence.
VendettaRed07
Member
I think if we acknowledge that favorables matter, then his should be cause for concern because they are high
balladofwindfishes
Member
Favorables will change drastically if Trump resigns, or worse, is actually convicted of something.
It's not like Pence's favorability is set in stone.
Pence hasn't done anything. This is basically the approval rating of vanilla pudding.
I don't think he stepped aside, Beto just got there first.
benicillin
Banned
Pence wasn't even that well-liked in Indiana.
They don't matter this far out.
Kid Kamikaze10
Member
Re: Black voters and Sanders.
1) People knew that if Sanders could beat Clinton, it would be through black voters. That urgency never came through in their campaign.
Because Jeff Weaver sucks. That is more on him.
2) In my experience and annecdotes, a lot or BLM, Campaign Zero, and others have talked to Bernie about their concerns, and have found his responses lacking. Same with Clinton, but it was more disappointing to see that Bernie wasn't much better
But he is not gonna make the pushes he wants without black people. Driven black people, in his team. Beyond the Nina's. I'm talking black folk that know their communities and speak politics.
1) People knew that if Sanders could beat Clinton, it would be through black voters. That urgency never came through in their campaign.
Because Jeff Weaver sucks. That is more on him.
2) In my experience and annecdotes, a lot or BLM, Campaign Zero, and others have talked to Bernie about their concerns, and have found his responses lacking. Same with Clinton, but it was more disappointing to see that Bernie wasn't much better
But he is not gonna make the pushes he wants without black people. Driven black people, in his team. Beyond the Nina's. I'm talking black folk that know their communities and speak politics.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
As an aside, if Trump gets impeached, someone will write a cheeky "Mike Pence Became the President Today" headline. For sure.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Guess whose approval rating this was, right around this point in his term?
63% approval, 21% disapproval
He's going to be a serious threat in
63% approval, 21% disapproval
Dick Cheney, April 2001, Gallup
He's going to be a serious threat in
2008
VendettaRed07
Member
I just think we should be prepared for operation "Trump-n-Dump" being very successful. The floor and standards have been set so astronomically low that I think it will be incredibly easy for Pence to score some political points or wins by acting "Presidential" and I believe he's reasonably competent enough and capable of doing that. And our media will be desperate to give him opportunities to boost himself.
I think he's done well enough to remain well liked amongst Trump voters and fans, while also maintaining the image of "politician who took on the patriotic duty of serving when asked", like Kelly, McMaster instead of "swamp monster who contributes to the problem" like Bannon to moderate conservatives and independents
Box of Kittens
Banned
BoogieWoogie
Banned
I don't think anyone is going to escape from this Trump administration unscathed.
There will be no shortage of young Trump-clones that won't have the stink of being directly associated with the administration's failures for the Republican electorate to choose from, I bet.
Basically, you get Trump-lite with some plausible deniability.
There will be no shortage of young Trump-clones that won't have the stink of being directly associated with the administration's failures for the Republican electorate to choose from, I bet.
Basically, you get Trump-lite with some plausible deniability.
Pence wouldn't generate nearly the same level of enthusiasm that Trump did, but I do think he would energize the evangelical base better than McCain or Romney.
I do think that ultimately if Pence were to become president through Trump being impeached or resigned, he would end up losing re-election, whether that came in 2020 or especially 2024. But I also agree we shouldn't underestimate his chances. Ford may have lost to Carter in '76, but it was a pretty close loss.
Aaron Strife
Banned
He'd be hard pressed to find a more favorable environment for a Democrat to win in red territory than 2018, imo. Maybe in 2020 if he wants to go after Cornyn's seat, but I think that will be significantly more difficult than Cruz's seat or running for Governor.
Julian Castro's entire political career was predicated on being Hillary's VP for eight years. Whoops. I don't see how he has any political future unless he takes his brother's seat or something.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Because Jimmy Carter was like the worst presidential campaigner, ever. Unforced errors, stupid remarks, crazy promises, poor debates, he had it all.
And he still won
Julian just accepted a position at the University of Texas. He's going to be teaching some seminars on public policy for graduate students.
DOWN
Banned
Just saw that Spicer finally got to meet the pope. Sean Spicer meets Pope Francis at last
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/politics/spicer-pope-visit/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/politics/spicer-pope-visit/index.html
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, if there's a year to run as a Democrat in Texas and win, it's 2018. 2020 will have any Democrat running against the top of the ticket, and even if we did flip the state in the presidential race that would probably be on the back of some serious ticket-splitting. 2018 you have a race that Republicans are nowhere near as enthused to turn out for as they were in past midterms, and a massively unpopular Republican president (42/51 when Gallup last checked in on Texas). O'Rourke for Senate and Castro for Governor would be a great slate, as well.
Aaron Strife
Banned
We need a good candidate for both governor and Senate though.
Agreed. I just wonder what his internal polling is looking like for gov vs Senate. I'm down for a Governor run for him totally, though.
VendettaRed07
Member
Right, I still think Pence will have a lot of issues, and won't be able to run a fake populist campaign that excited and flipped so many voters
But his position is better than I think many believe and i think he'll be a tough opponent if it is down to him in 2020. Carter did not easily win in 76 despite being from a time where scandal actually mattered
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's hard to gauge which would be an easier race. States are more likely to buck their partisan lean for gubernatorial races, but Cruz is a much weaker incumbent than Abbott.
Abinash117
Member
It wouldn't be the focus. I think the message from any Democratic candidate is going to be relatively similar.
VendettaRed07
Member
I'm not convinced the person we wind up with will be much better or also not do those things
balladofwindfishes
Member
Maybe if Sanders runs.
He's been touring the state and announcing policy positions since announcing. He's not the "Not Cruz" or "Not Castro" candidate.
VendettaRed07
Member
Castro didn't want to because he said he absolutely hates congress and has no interest in getting into it
But if that's his opinion he should have just gotten out of politics all together. Completely not interested in the prospects of someone like him moving forward. Put in the work or gtfo.
If he doesn't want to run to congress then run for governor himself. But it doesn't look like he wants to do that either. If he doesn't even want to be governor then what the heck is he doing. How can he say he should be president.
His brother actually earned the right to run for governor because he's actually employed right now. If we do win in 2020 I also don't want there to be pressure to hand the dude a high level position just because. What's he done to earn it. Completely stupid.
I don't mean to disparage his effort since announcing. His stuff has been all over my feed for the last few months. Dude is putting in the work!
I'm just saying that those same people who share all of his stuff on my feed have been with him since the very beginning, precisely because he came out as "Meet the Congressman trying to take down Cruz". Had Castro come out at the same time, I'm curious what the support for both would be.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The simple act of actually running versus hemming and hawing in the media about it and ultimately declining gives him the advantage.
Seriously nothing bugs me more than glory hogs who feed rumors about running for higher office only to dwell in their Congressional seat for like 500 years. Looking at you, Tim Ryan.
Futurevoid
Member
CNN gets caught in this woman's path of spitting hot fire! Good lord.
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/902601446176284672
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/902601446176284672
This is no time for political cowardice. If you're not going to take the risk of running in a race you might lose, then what are you even in politics for to begin with? Just the slow and steady accumulation of power?
And the thing is, Joaquin will probably be rewarded for taking the risk!
I really don't understand their political calculus.
Tim Ryan would rather run against Democrats than run against Republicans.
And the thing is, Joaquin will probably be rewarded for taking the risk!
I really don't understand their political calculus.
Tim Ryan would rather run against Democrats than run against Republicans.
There's no guarantee that the next Dem nominee won't make unforced errors or stupid remarks (you know, like our last nominee).
All I'm saying is, there were a lot of people here who not only thought that Hillary was a slam dunk for 2016 but that there wouldn't be another Republican president for decades. We should not be repeating the same mistake of underestimating Republican nominees, whomever they are, and Mike Pence as a relatively well-liked vice president would be a very formidable opponent for any Democrat regardless of what happens to Trump.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
I know she's in a bad place right now but I think having people be interviewed during a time like this helps to convey how dire the situation is, ie pushing more people volunteering their time and money.
Doing a hell of a job Brocky.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Who was saying there wouldn't be another Republican president for decades? There was a certain degree of overconfidence in Clinton (although it was perfectly reasonable to think she would probably win given the polls going into Election Day) but if anything people were concerned that with a GOP Congress obstructing everything that she'd have a major uphill fight on her hands in 2020. At most I do remember some posts about the supposed "Blue Wall" (which got pushback) but I really don't remember anybody confidently predicting Dem presidents for decades.
If Mike Pence is the 2020 nominee (and I think there's a decent chance he is) then he absolutely could win, but I think part of being realistic is not inflating your opponent. His favorability numbers are middling, his social views are extreme, and he was unpopular as governor of Indiana. By no means do those things mean he can't win or even that he might be tough to beat in certain circumstances, but he's not exactly a once-in-a-generation political star.
I mean, no one is suggesting we don't put forward the best candidate possible or that we just assume 2020 is in the bag. Nor is anyone saying we just repeat all of the Clinton campaign's mistakes. But we're not up against a near-unbeatable juggernaut either.
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