Theonik
Member
The media of each side chooses on what to report and how. This is hardly surprising and there is a fair deal of misreporting on both sides.
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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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I can just taste the hatred and despair of the officials that need to act on this letter.
I mean, it's around eight hours before the sword falls (30th June, midnight). It's six in the afternoon, no respectable bureaucrat is still working.
The amount of paperwork and diplomacy required to get this rolling - regardless of whether it eventually happens - surely cannot be done within the meager few hours left in the day. It's not like the janitor grabs the keys to the safe and waddles over to grab a chunk of gold to fax to Greece. This is a hugely complex undertaking with multiple interlocked stages.
I am throwing my two cents in the "headless chicken" hat. If this is N-dimensional chess, then N is beyond my mental capacity.
PdotMichael
Banned
Putin isn't that dumb that he doesn't know that outside of creating a twist between EU states there is nothing he could gain from Greece.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Negotiator
Banned
Subsidies make farmers counterproductive. For example, they prefer to farm cotton (which requires tons of water and the profits are not that high) just to get the subsidies.
Depends. Greece is still a NATO member with plenty of NATO intel, insight and equipment. That's worth something all on its own. Destabilizing NATO's southern border somewhat is also worth a bit.
But considering the status of the Russian economy at the moment the cost/benefit analysis doesn't make it worth it. As long as oil remains below $60 per barrel and the Rubel is below 60 per USD Russia is forced to burn its savings to maintain state expenditures. If they give that money to Greece instead they'd be bringing themselves closer to the edge.
Ah, I can see why that would be a problem.
Portugeezer
Member
Lol, I am going to Portugal for a couple weeks, I am not just randomly exchanging.
Coriolanus
Banned
They don't need to give money to Greece, it runs a (primary) surplus. All they'd need to do to help it is resume trade.
Theonik
Member
Mind, the market situation has also made it so farmers can only ensure their viability by going in that direction.
Color me surprised.
Which isn't possible while Greece remains in the EU unless Russia wants to resume trade with all of the EU and the EU lifts its sanctions. Individual members can't make their own trade arrangements due to the open borders. If Greece unilaterally decided to break the sanctions and resume trade with Russia in the current political climate it's one of very few scenarios I can imagine where Greece in some way is kicked out of the union.
Coriolanus
Banned
And what is the procedure for kicking an EU member out?
Theonik
Member
Some way. I mean they definitely can do it, but I am not sure they would. Would be pretty disastrous politically.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No, but how do they? The European Union, as an institution, has no legal way to do that. To implement a legal way to do that, you would have to undergo an ordinary revision procedure (like for the Lisbon Treaty) - but that requires the assent of all member states, so Greece could just say no. I think the only way the EU can really force the exit of member states is to treat them so horribly they voluntarily leave.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
It's unprecedented, however that doesn't mean the topic, mechanisms (or lack of) and consequences haven't been looked at extensively:
Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU - Legal Working Paper Series - European Central Bank
Theonik
Member
They've been doing pretty well with option two. They could probably just do it then deal with any lawsuit from Greece presenting that Greek actions were in clear violation of EU agreements.
I find it amusing that this was written by a Greek.
Coriolanus
Banned
And then you also gotta factor that Greece isnt the only country pushing for trade with Russia to be reestablished, and also factor that any new legislation that established such a penalty for going against the EU's will could very well be levied against..say.. countries that refuse to follow the EU's humanitarian efforts by saying that they wont take any more war refugees or whatever, and it suddenly doesnt seem very likely.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
This is international diplomacy, not national law. If the rest of the EU wants Greece out they'll come up with a way to get them out. There's no global supreme court for Greece to appeal to and no global police forcing the EU to comply and violating the founding principle that the EU negotiates trade as one could be just the thing that would give the EU the reason to do it.
They wouldn't even have to do it officially, if it comes to it. Just suspend trade and travel through Greece while they are in breach of the treaty. Murky as hell legally but sovereign entities have a lot of leeway. The effect would be the same anyway.
Not that I see any kind of Greek government as being stupid enough to try it. They'd lose far more from the EU then they'd ever gain from Russia. I'm not even sure it would work. If Russia lifts the sanctions on Greece they would lift the sanctions on the EU as a whole considering that it's one market and I don't see Russia doing that for Greece's sake alone.
Ether_Snake
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Exactly. Of course Russia wouldn't bailout Greece, they want them to exit the EZ and EU:
It would allow them to resume trade with Greece, which would push other EU members to push for the same (if not now then later when their own economic situation deteriorates, a precedent having been set) and it puts Russia in a good position bargaining-wise when trading with Greece, plus it fucks up NATO.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I imagine Greece would probably take the case to the ECHR, which is independent of the European Union.
Ether_Snake
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Again this is very wrong. The best time for a country to unilaterally break the sanctions is while they are in dire need of that trade revenue. The EU would have to basically offer a monetary package to make up for the lost revenue for that country.
In fact, I'm surprised Greece hasn't pushed to include that in their negotiations, because I think a lot of people in other EU countries would be quite favourable to it since it would offset the costs of the bailout by an amount proportional to the trade revenue Greece would get from its trade with Russia, effectively making Russia contribute to the bailout indirectly.
No surprise then that Russia is making no effort in this direction; the sanctions on Russia might hurt some trade partners in the EU enough to eventually create rifts. All you need is a country in a difficult financial position, such as Greece still being in the EU and resuming trade with Russia when the Troika refuses all help. All they need is a good excuse.
Protesters for a "Yes" vote in the referendum gather today in Athens.
That crowd appears significantly larger than yesterday's "No" rally.
I have no idea how you're able to tell from that angle. If you told me that was a picture of yesterday's crowd I would have believed you. Looks the same from that angle. People see what they want to see I guess.
Ether_Snake
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There are reports companies are forcing their employees to go at threat of dismissal. See The Guardian.
Pointless. The rEU would either device a way to make it legal before the expulsion or simply contest the case for years. I'm also unconvinced that the ECHR could either force the rEU to keep Greece or impose a fine heavy enough that the rEU would back down. The court lacks direct executive power to enforce its rulings.
While I'm sure Russia would love that, trading the EU for Russia trade-wise would devastate Greece. Russia might be Greece's largest import partner (at 12 %, mostly oil and gas) but it only accounts for 1,9 % of Greek exports. As a comparison, Greece barely exports more to the United Arab Emirate which accounted for 1,8 % of exports. And this is not because of sanctions - the level was the same in 2010.
It's ludicrous to suggest that free trade with Russia would somehow save the Greek economy, even if it wouldn't come at the cost of trade with the EU (which it likely does).
Greece did bring it up during the last sanctions negotiations but they backed down. I got the impression that the blowback was too great. And Greece can't unilaterally resume trade with Russia if the sanctions are still in place, the EU is one market. Opening up trade through one country opens up trade with the EU.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It obviously can't retrospectively change things, that would be the entire reason Greece would be taking the case. And yes, the European Union can technically breach all of the treaties that were set out in its own creation, vacate the Council of Europe, and ignore the European Court of Human Rights... but they're not going to do that for Greece because that would set up the mother of all shitstorms. It's the equivalent of the United States Federal government breaching the constitution and throwing out the Supreme Court because California went bankrupt.
Ether_Snake
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It would not, it would be the same as when EU countries were trading with Russia, except it would only be Greece. Any issue this would cause would end up in the hands of nobody, so what would happen? Sanctions against Greece? Anything the EU does against Greece while it is still a member is self-destructive. Greece knows that, it's their main argument really.
The difference is that if the US Federal Government tried to do that it would be a crime and a warrant for the arrest of those behind it would be issued. Basically, US law enforcement agents would arrest the President and new elections would be called for. The ECHR does not have that type of power. If the rEU ignores the ECHR the court would lose its function but that would be about it. It would obviously cause internal problems for the rEU but not on the same level.
This is the main difference between the EU, which is a union of sovereign nations, and the US, which is a federation of states. Sovereign nations always reserve the right to basically do whatever the hell they want, at the cost of possible diplomatic crisis, sanctions or military intervention. The ECHR and some parts of EU might have to be restructured but if all other members are in agreement it changes little.
But this is beside the point. The rEU could create some function to expel Greece legally if they wanted to. The constitution-equivalent of the EU are a set of treaties that can be renegotiated if need be.
And I should probably reiterate that I don't think any of this is particularly likely, my point is simply that just because there's no current mechanism for the expulsion of a member doesn't mean that such a thing is completely impossible.
"Remnant EU", as in the remaining members in the scenario. Shamelessly stole it from the Scotland independence debate where rUK was used a lot. I think it's rather nifty in discussions like these to quickly separate a union in its current state and a union after it hypothetically loses a member.
uuaschbaer
Banned
Nah, the US constitution actually has a reputation, whereas EU treaties are usually implemented by force after they've been voted against in referenda. There is nothing to lose.
Well, not quite.
There is no real provision for new US elections in such a scenario. What would happen is that the Vice President would assume the office of the presidency for the remainder of the term.
Business
Member
I tip my hat to you sir.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying that the diplomatic repercussions of destroying one of the cornerstone institutions of Europe and the enforcement of basic legal rights across a wide spread of European countries is not going to be foregone because Merkel or the troika are a bit pissy with Greece. Greece is not worth that.
In other news, confirming what we knew they knew already...
In other news, confirming what we knew they knew already...
petran79
Banned
This is really intentional. They just want this specific Greek government out and want instead the Conservative-Social Democratic-Liberal alliance we see in most European countries. Also it matters to them that our defense minister was a stagnant supporter of Milosevic and also visited Mladic and Karadjic in Bosnia.
Conservative and Social Democratic parties also made huge blunders in the past but they were forgiven due to their political affiliation.
This party is more fit for Latin America really. Political controversy is deeply entrenched in our society.
Coriolanus
Banned
Gods. "Hey guys! How does 15+ more years of austerity without perspective of recovery sound?"
I included the Vice President in the federal government that was arrested which would have rendered the Speaker president pro-tempore, whom I assumed would call for early elections. Rather unnecessary in retrospect, didn't really have much to do with my argument.
You can't trade with just one EU member, only the EU as a whole. If Russia wants to lift sanctions on Greece it has to lift them on all of the EU.
This was in the framework of Greece ignoring the free trade principles and striking some kind of unilateral deal with Russia, something that could potentially necessitate closing the EU-Greek border if the EU feels that the sanctions are vital, not the current diplomatic pissing match. It's obviously a weapon of last resorts. But in any case I feel I'm sidetracking the thread, I'll stop now.
jakonovski
Member
When the EU offers perpetual >25% unemployment, Putin doesn't sound so bad all of a sudden.
edit: in fact, if Putin figured out a reasonably fast way to get Greece back on its feet after Grexit, he'd destroy the EU without a shot being fired.
And Greek people are ok with this?
Jesus. OK I'm definitely in the headless chicken camp now too.
What will happen in that case is that they'll suspend the referendum, go back to the negotiating table, neither side will budge an inch and nothing will get done. Of course, I get the impression that the majority would vote Yes on the referendum anyway, which has the same net result.
They are stuck between two bad decisions pretty much.
The whole EU situation needs to change asap.
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