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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July

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Joni

Member
So, most of it does. If Greece just refuses to honour those debts, there's not much other bodies can do. At best, those government can try, for example, freezing Greek assets and so on - but Greece/Greeks doesn't have many foreign assets any more, and that's not a particularly useful thing to do anyway.
The question would be who is willing to trade with a nation that doesn't pay its bills? Foreign companies would require payments in USD or EUR.
 
So this new Greece would be so self-contained as to not need access to cheap credit ever again then? Wow, bold move cotton, let me know how that works out.

It's weird when you try to run these doom and gloom scenarios while pretending that the alternative wouldn't fuck them even harder in the medium and long term.

Argentina done fuck up when they went to US courts. It's amazing how much damage they do themselves by going in so hard on the Falklands, there is simply no way UK courts would have reached the same conclusion.

Which is why i can't help but find it weird when people act like an EU court would allow vulture capitalists to pull the kinda shit they did on the argies.

Anyway, on the hyperinflation bit, this is what happened when Argentina decoupled their money from the US dollar back in 2002
argentina-inflation-cpi.png

And this is iceland
 
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...manoi-epimenoyn-stin-ayxisi-toy-fpa-sta-nisia

Quick and dirty translation (courtesy of Google Translate):

Read why the Germans insist on the VAT increase on the islands

In German companies owned hotels on the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. The vast majority of hotels on the Turkish coast opposite the Greek islands controlled by German TUI interests and others. This largely explains their persistence in not covered islands to special arrangements for VAT. An increase in VAT would raise prices and would motivate the groups of tourists in the opposite Turkish coast and hotels located there.

The defense minister Panos Blazing who made the disclosure on Monday commented on koutipandoras.gr: «Germany is pushing for the interests of entrepreneurs. That urge to destroy the Greek islands because the vast majority of hotel chains in Asia Minor coast opposite the Greek islands, is of German interests. They want to break tourism in the Greek Islands to serve their interests. Unfortunately there are Greeks from the club of those who believe in Germany serving from Greece German interests. Among those Mr. Theodorakis ".

But the interests of Germany has not only captured the theme of tourism, but continue for OTE.

After further sale of shares and voting rights of the Greek government, the July 11, 2011, the share of Deutsche Telekom in OTE is 40%. With the German obsession privatizations including the remaining 10% owned by the Greek government, everything suggests that want complete control and OTE

Meanwhile on Tuesday morning Defence Minister stressed the two conditions without which no solution is discussed. These are that "There will be no disarmament of the country, impoverishment of the armed forces, and will be fully respected on the special VAT scheme for the islands."
He added that "I do not accept any ultimatum. Without these two conditions are not discussing any solution. "

(Photo archive eurokinissi)
 
So this new Greece would be so self-contained as to not need access to cheap credit ever again then? Wow, bold move cotton, let me know how that works out.

Indeed, never has the world witnessed a thing like sovereign default before. Why, it's a wonder they even came up with a name for it.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The question would be who is willing to trade with a nation that doesn't pay its bills? Foreign companies would require payments in USD or EUR.

Why? It's not Greek companies that defaulted, it's the Greek state. The only reason that foreign companies would want payments in USD or EUR is if they're worried about the potential currency stability of the drachma. That could be an issue, but it's not a necessary one. Now, if you'd said "who is willing to purchase bonds from a government that doesn't pay its bills?", you might have a point - but the Greek government doesn't need to buy any bonds from anyone at the moment because it runs a primary surplus, one which could be even larger if they don't have to meet their previous debt obligations. Now, you're quite right that if they did want to buy bonds, they'd be much more expensive, so Greece would probably have to continue to run a primary surplus for some time, at least until trust in the Greek government returns, but they'd have to run a primary surplus for some time under the IMF plans, and a larger one where more spending just goes on paying German banks, so that's comparatively a pretty good deal.
 

Osiris

I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
It's weird when you try to run these doom and gloom scenarios while pretending that the alternative wouldn't fuck them even harder in the medium and long term.

Because I don't believe the alternative would fuck them as badly in the medium to long term, I think Greece is having to choose between a terrible situation, and a much worse one, there is not a "good option / happy ending" on offer here, nor could there be under the circumstances, only varying degrees of pain.

I think remaining with the Euro and EU will lead to a better medium to long term for Greece than an exit, in fact I think although painful, it's still significantly better than the alternative.
 

Osiris

I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...manoi-epimenoyn-stin-ayxisi-toy-fpa-sta-nisia

Quick and dirty translation (courtesy of Google Translate):

Read why the Germans insist on the VAT increase on the islands

In German companies owned hotels on the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. The vast majority of hotels on the Turkish coast opposite the Greek islands controlled by German TUI interests and others. This largely explains their persistence in not covered islands to special arrangements for VAT. An increase in VAT would raise prices and would motivate the groups of tourists in the opposite Turkish coast and hotels located there.

The defense minister Panos Blazing who made the disclosure on Monday commented on koutipandoras.gr: «Germany is pushing for the interests of entrepreneurs. That urge to destroy the Greek islands because the vast majority of hotel chains in Asia Minor coast opposite the Greek islands, is of German interests. They want to break tourism in the Greek Islands to serve their interests. Unfortunately there are Greeks from the club of those who believe in Germany serving from Greece German interests. Among those Mr. Theodorakis ".

But the interests of Germany has not only captured the theme of tourism, but continue for OTE.

After further sale of shares and voting rights of the Greek government, the July 11, 2011, the share of Deutsche Telekom in OTE is 40%. With the German obsession privatizations including the remaining 10% owned by the Greek government, everything suggests that want complete control and OTE

Meanwhile on Tuesday morning Defence Minister stressed the two conditions without which no solution is discussed. These are that "There will be no disarmament of the country, impoverishment of the armed forces, and will be fully respected on the special VAT scheme for the islands."
He added that "I do not accept any ultimatum. Without these two conditions are not discussing any solution. "

(Photo archive eurokinissi)

Evil German company, the old rival Turkey. Sure, the article delivers on all fronts. It just ignores that TUI is also big in Greece.
 
Because I don't believe the alternative would fuck them as badly in the medium to long term, I think Greece is having to choose between a terrible situation, and a much worse one, there is not a "good option / happy ending" on offer here, nor could there be under the circumstances, only varying degrees of pain.

I think remaining with the Euro and EU will lead to a better medium to long term for Greece than an exit, in fact I think although painful, it's still significantly better than the alternative.

How? They'd have to pull chinese growth numbers to improve their situation, and that won't happen while they sell infrastructure, raise taxes, and bleed money from the economy wherever they can.

In this, i mimic Stiglitz
It is hard to advise Greeks how to vote on 5 July. Neither alternative – approval or rejection of the troika’s terms – will be easy, and both carry huge risks. A yes vote would mean depression almost without end. Perhaps a depleted country – one that has sold off all of its assets, and whose bright young people have emigrated – might finally get debt forgiveness; perhaps, having shrivelled into a middle-income economy, Greece might finally be able to get assistance from the World Bank. All of this might happen in the next decade, or perhaps in the decade after that.

By contrast, a no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. Greeks might gain the opportunity to shape a future that, though perhaps not as prosperous as the past, is far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present.

I know how I would vote.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Because I don't believe the alternative would fuck them as badly in the medium to long term, I think Greece is having to choose between a terrible situation, and a much worse one, there is not a "good option / happy ending" on offer here, nor could there be under the circumstances, only varying degrees of pain.

I think remaining with the Euro and EU will lead to a better medium to long term for Greece than an exit, in fact I think although painful, it's still significantly better than the alternative.

Why do effectively no economists agree with you, then? This is one of those very rare issues where effectively every school has come together to say that the IMF done fuck up. You can go from fairly orthodox neo-Keynesians like Krugman and Stiglitz to heteredox thinkers like Ha-Joon Chang to famed leftwing firebands (clue: sarcasm) like Friedman and all of them are pointing out that the IMF's plan is ludicrous. Even the IMF thinks that their own plan is useless - see their 2012 Economic Outlook report condemning austerity measures.

This isn't about economics any more. If it was, Greece would have been offered serious debt restructing and the ability to run a deficit within the +/-1% of yearly GDP loss, or something similar to those lines. This is about politics, and particularly "fuck you, got mine" politics.
 

Ted Striker

Neo Member
Because I don't believe the alternative would fuck them as badly in the medium to long term, I think Greece is having to choose between a terrible situation, and a much worse one, there is not a "good option / happy ending" on offer here, nor could there be under the circumstances, only varying degrees of pain.

I think remaining with the Euro and EU will lead to a better medium to long term for Greece than an exit, in fact I think although painful, it's still significantly better than the alternative.

People in Greece have been hearing this song for 5 years now. At some point they stop listening to the voices singing the tune.
 

snap0212

Member
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...manoi-epimenoyn-stin-ayxisi-toy-fpa-sta-nisia

Quick and dirty translation (courtesy of Google Translate):

Read why the Germans insist on the VAT increase on the islands

In German companies owned hotels on the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. The vast majority of hotels on the Turkish coast opposite the Greek islands controlled by German TUI interests and others. This largely explains their persistence in not covered islands to special arrangements for VAT. An increase in VAT would raise prices and would motivate the groups of tourists in the opposite Turkish coast and hotels located there.
Is there untranslated information somewhere? These are just claims and they don't even make any sense. Have you seen TUI's presence in Greece? A quick look at their website shows me about 500 different hotels I can choose from.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
You mean like Argentina, right? :p

Argentina didn't actually default properly, though. They defaulted on a large part of their debt, but to keep confidence in their economy they then said "but we'll honour some of it, so please let us continue to run a deficit!" (clue: Greece isn't running a deficit, hasn't been for years). Because people didn't trust Argentine courts, they had to go to foreign courts to oversee these bond repayments, and instead of picking the United Kingdom's (because lol, Falklands), they picked the United States', despite the fact that most Argentine bondholders were American and therefore America had a massive vested interest. The courts then uphold a legal loophole that insisted Argentina actually had to pay back more of their default than Argentina originally agreed to. The whole reason Argentina got fucked was because they weren't actually allowed to shed their debt properly.

Greece is in a totally different situation. They don't need to go to foreign courts to ensure confidence, because they run a primary surplus and so don't need to immediately take debt on in a post-default world. They can therefore shed all of their debt, immediately.

The kicker is that despite how much Argentina got fucked up the ass by America, their economy is still doing better than it was when they were trying to keep their currency pegged to the dollar.
 

wsippel

Banned
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...manoi-epimenoyn-stin-ayxisi-toy-fpa-sta-nisia

Quick and dirty translation (courtesy of Google Translate):

Read why the Germans insist on the VAT increase on the islands

In German companies owned hotels on the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. The vast majority of hotels on the Turkish coast opposite the Greek islands controlled by German TUI interests and others. This largely explains their persistence in not covered islands to special arrangements for VAT. An increase in VAT would raise prices and would motivate the groups of tourists in the opposite Turkish coast and hotels located there.

The defense minister Panos Blazing who made the disclosure on Monday commented on koutipandoras.gr: «Germany is pushing for the interests of entrepreneurs. That urge to destroy the Greek islands because the vast majority of hotel chains in Asia Minor coast opposite the Greek islands, is of German interests. They want to break tourism in the Greek Islands to serve their interests. Unfortunately there are Greeks from the club of those who believe in Germany serving from Greece German interests. Among those Mr. Theodorakis ".

But the interests of Germany has not only captured the theme of tourism, but continue for OTE.

After further sale of shares and voting rights of the Greek government, the July 11, 2011, the share of Deutsche Telekom in OTE is 40%. With the German obsession privatizations including the remaining 10% owned by the Greek government, everything suggests that want complete control and OTE

Meanwhile on Tuesday morning Defence Minister stressed the two conditions without which no solution is discussed. These are that "There will be no disarmament of the country, impoverishment of the armed forces, and will be fully respected on the special VAT scheme for the islands."
He added that "I do not accept any ultimatum. Without these two conditions are not discussing any solution. "

(Photo archive eurokinissi)
This article makes no sense whatsoever. The EMU suggests a higher defence budget than Syriza so that point is bull, and German companies (including TUI and state owned Fraport) are heavily invested in tourism in Greece as well so they sure as hell don't want to destroy that market.
 
Evil German company, the old rival Turkey. Sure, the article delivers on all fronts. It just ignores that TUI is also big in Greece.
Predictable response...

Greek islands have lots of small hotel owners, that have nothing to do with TUI.

inb4increasedHotelVATisstillgoodforGreece
 

Fersis

It is illegal to Tag Fish in Tag Fishing Sanctuaries by law 38.36 of the GAF Wildlife Act
Argentina didn't actually default properly, though. They defaulted on a large part of their debt, but to keep confidence in their economy they then said "but we'll honour some of it, so please let us continue to run a deficit!" (clue: Greece isn't running a deficit, hasn't been for years). Because people didn't trust Argentine courts, they had to go to foreign courts to oversee these bond repayments, and instead of picking the United Kingdom's (because lol, Falklands), they picked the United States', despite the fact that most Argentine bondholders were American and therefore America had a massive vested interest. The courts then uphold a legal loophole that insisted Argentina actually had to pay back more of their default than Argentina originally agreed to. The whole reason Argentina got fucked was because they weren't actually allowed to shed their debt properly.

Greece is in a totally different situation. They don't need to go to foreign courts to ensure confidence, because they run a primary surplus and so don't need to immediately take debt on in a post-default world. They can therefore shed all of their debt, immediately.

The kicker is that despite how much Argentina got fucked up the ass by America, their economy is still doing better than it was when they were trying to keep their currency pegged to the dollar.
Actually the right wing party still wants to go back to be pegged to the dollar.
Of course the left wing party bitched when we started paying the debt again.

Damn if you do and damn if you dont i guess.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Well, who would have seen that coming.

"We accept the peoples opinion but if you don't vote my way i'll leave"

This is one of the most stupid statements in this thread. Of course he'd have to leave in that situation. He was voted in to be lead an anti-austerity government. If people vote yes, then there is no way forward other than austerity given the terms the government has set. The entire reason d'etre of his administration no longer exists; people have rejected the central tenet of his platform. That's like, democracy 101.
 

snap0212

Member
Predictable response...

Greek islands have lots of small hotel owners, that have nothing to do with TUI.

inb4increasedHotelVATisstillgoodforGreece
Which is probably true, but doesn't prove the point the author is making. They're not out to lure people to Turkey instead. There's no indication that this is happening. None at all.
 
Which is probably true, but doesn't prove the point the author is making. They're not out to lure people to Turkey instead. There's no indication that this is happening. None at all.
1) Big enterprises (like TUI) can afford a VAT increase. It's the smaller ones that won't be sustainable anymore.

2) Turkey has less VAT and a cheaper currency.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
So Greece won't make a repayment, so it is going to default?

No, but they'll be considered in arrears. Default date is the 8th when they face payments to private investors rather than the IMF.
 

Osiris

I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Another 2 years of fun anyone?

Bloomberg said:
Bloomberg
Greece’s government has asked for a two-year bailout program from the European Stability Mechanism, according to a statement from the office of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

The request is to cover all of the country’s financial needs for the next two years, along with a debt restructuring plan, the Greek government said in the statment.

The government will continue negotiations seeking a “viable agreement” within the euro zone, it said.
 
Guardian has a hair more info

GREECE PROPOSES NEW TWO YEAR BAILOUT

The Greek government has proposed a new Two-Year bailout programme, according to news breaking in Athens.

This two-year programme would be supplied under the European Stability Mechanism and – crucially – would run alongside a debt restructuring. And it wouldn’t include the International Monetary Fund.

In a statement from Alexis Tsipras’s office, cited by Reuters, Greece says it is still at the negotiating table, and seeking “a viable solution, under the end, aimed at staying in the euro.”

This could be a very significant development, depending on how creditors react. Or it could be very swiftly shot down.

No word yet on how large this programme would be, though, let alone what conditions Greece is prepared to accept.

One important point -- this would not be an extension of the current bailout (which was made under the EFSF and expires at midnight) but a whole new programmme. That means a discussion of debt relief would be an option.

well, there's your olive branch.

Greece: we still want better terms

Announcing the remarkable news that it now wants a third bailout, the Greek government says:

“From the first moment, we made clear that the decision to hold a referendum is not the end but the continuation of negotiations for better terms for the Greek people...

The Greek government will until the end seek a viable agreement within the euro.”

Gods, i just want this charade to end.
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Kicking out the IMF is Greece always wanted and what Germany, especially the parliament, categorically denied.
 

Ted Striker

Neo Member
http://www.koutipandoras.gr/article...manoi-epimenoyn-stin-ayxisi-toy-fpa-sta-nisia

Quick and dirty translation (courtesy of Google Translate):

Read why the Germans insist on the VAT increase on the islands

In German companies owned hotels on the Turkish coast of Asia Minor. The vast majority of hotels on the Turkish coast opposite the Greek islands controlled by German TUI interests and others. This largely explains their persistence in not covered islands to special arrangements for VAT. An increase in VAT would raise prices and would motivate the groups of tourists in the opposite Turkish coast and hotels located there.

The defense minister Panos Blazing who made the disclosure on Monday commented on koutipandoras.gr: «Germany is pushing for the interests of entrepreneurs. That urge to destroy the Greek islands because the vast majority of hotel chains in Asia Minor coast opposite the Greek islands, is of German interests. They want to break tourism in the Greek Islands to serve their interests. Unfortunately there are Greeks from the club of those who believe in Germany serving from Greece German interests. Among those Mr. Theodorakis ".

But the interests of Germany has not only captured the theme of tourism, but continue for OTE.

After further sale of shares and voting rights of the Greek government, the July 11, 2011, the share of Deutsche Telekom in OTE is 40%. With the German obsession privatizations including the remaining 10% owned by the Greek government, everything suggests that want complete control and OTE

Meanwhile on Tuesday morning Defence Minister stressed the two conditions without which no solution is discussed. These are that "There will be no disarmament of the country, impoverishment of the armed forces, and will be fully respected on the special VAT scheme for the islands."
He added that "I do not accept any ultimatum. Without these two conditions are not discussing any solution. "

(Photo archive eurokinissi)

Bwwhhaahaahaa , Panos Kammenos becomes Panos Blazing !! Thank you google translate.

Anyway Kammenos is a looney, a real conspiracy theories fanboy.
 

Theonik

Member
Real estate bubble bursts, banks being banks -> that wasn't nice, let's make them go through some stress tests, that'll show them
You forgot the part where we bought the banker's loss with taxpayer money. Because you know when businesses fuck up they shouldn't lose money!

Shouldn't it be possible though to leave both unions "just for one second" and become an EU member again a moment later?
Can you imagine the paperwork?
 

Nivash

Member
And so the circus goes for an encore...

I've given up on even remotely understanding what on Earth is going in the diplomatic game. I can't even decide if Syriza is playing N-dimensional chess or scurrying around like chickens with their heads cut off behind the scenes, their actions fit with both. But if Tsipras actually has a plan it's got to be something on another level. He should just change his name to Xanatos if that's the case. It's basically Greek anyway.

And the name being based on the Greek daemon of death would be rather fitting if the plan doesn't work...
 

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
One thing is sure, should Merkel agree to such a deal, including all the concessions she was willing to grant up to this point like the 35 billion support fund and debt relief, her party at home will grill her good.

I just want this to end one way or the other. This ongoing crisis is damaging Europe more than any shitty but final conclusion could.
 

oti

Banned
And so the circus goes for an encore...

I've given up on even remotely understanding what on Earth is going in the diplomatic game. I can't even decide if Syriza is playing N-dimensional chess or scurrying around like chickens with their heads cut off behind the scenes, their actions fit with both. But if Tsipras actually has a plan it's got to be something on another level. He should just change his name to Xanatos if that's the case. It's basically Greek anyway.

And the name being based on the Greek daemon of death would be rather fitting if the plan doesn't work...

They're pulling an Arnold. Remember how a bully wanted to beat up Arnold so he and his friend decided the best thing would be to appear crazy so he danced around the bully and made weird noises.

It worked.
 

oti

Banned
One thing is sure, should Merkel agree to such a deal, including all the concessions she was willing to grant up to this point like the 35 billion support fund and debt relief, her party at home will grill her good.

I just want this to end one way or the other. This ongoing crisis is damaging Europe more than any shitty but final conclusion could.

I don't know. The CSU for sure, these clowns will complain no matter what but the CDU strikes me more level headed in this matter.
 

Theonik

Member
It's the EU we're talking about here.
Exactly my point. Whole process would take forever.

Kicking out the IMF is Greece always wanted and what Germany, especially the parliament, categorically denied.
Which is somewhat funny since everyone including the IMF (and I hope Merkel unless she's on some really good shit) regrets ever involving the IMF as some kind of babysitter in this situation.

And so the circus goes for an encore...

I've given up on even remotely understanding what on Earth is going in the diplomatic game. I can't even decide if Syriza is playing N-dimensional chess or scurrying around like chickens with their heads cut off behind the scenes, their actions fit with both. But if Tsipras actually has a plan it's got to be something on another level. He should just change his name to Xanatos if that's the case. It's basically Greek anyway.

And the name being based on the Greek daemon of death would be rather fitting if the plan doesn't work...
This is the point where Tsipras reveals his Dr. Strangelove Doomsday device.
 
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