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Greece to hold referendum on austerity measures 5 July
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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It's still not known, if she is gonna take part in the next elections anyway.
And since the other big party is sabotaging themselves over and over again, I doubt it will change that much.
Maybe a couple of percent more votes for extremists parties, but that's about it.
Hopefully Greece stays in the Euro and the austerity measures aren't awful.
But honestly, this is just delaying the inevitable. Europe needs a big reform when it comes to it's economic politics. We need euro-bonds and we need to stop with demanding austerity without thinking about the people living in those countries.
The fact that foreigners come to poor countries to demand cutting measures led us to this situation where there's a big divide between north and south of EU and a lot of hate going towards one another.
Taking away a countries ability to control it's coin without nothing in return led us to this in a little short amount of time. If EU wants to survive (and prosper) then it needs changing because this won't work long-term when it barely works short term.
They want to employ a model similar to the US but just half of it, the half that benefits the rich states. Well, you can't have your cake and eat it too and this is proof of that.
So yeah, you pay the debt now and just demand cost cutting measures but without additional steps of good will and shared responsibilities you are just delaying the inevitable.
But honestly, this is just delaying the inevitable. Europe needs a big reform when it comes to it's economic politics. We need euro-bonds and we need to stop with demanding austerity without thinking about the people living in those countries.
The fact that foreigners come to poor countries to demand cutting measures led us to this situation where there's a big divide between north and south of EU and a lot of hate going towards one another.
Taking away a countries ability to control it's coin without nothing in return led us to this in a little short amount of time. If EU wants to survive (and prosper) then it needs changing because this won't work long-term when it barely works short term.
They want to employ a model similar to the US but just half of it, the half that benefits the rich states. Well, you can't have your cake and eat it too and this is proof of that.
So yeah, you pay the debt now and just demand cost cutting measures but without additional steps of good will and shared responsibilities you are just delaying the inevitable.
I'm not sure I understand what you mean. Do you mean that TUI won't raise their prices when outside factors require them to? Because that's exactly what they do all the time (increased fuel prices, for example).
Aside from raising prices (for the end consumer), VAT is pretty much a non-factor for companies.
I'm starting to lean that way too. A complete bailout, stimulus and restructuring with EU money and fewer strings attached would probably be the best option. Provided it would actually work, that is, which I'm not sure it would considering that I don't have a good picture of what Greece's situation actually looks like. That goes for experts like Krugman too. No matter how you look at it they're still outside commenters, I doubt they'd be able to invest the time required to get the full picture even if they had all the information. And it isn't happening anyway. It's a complete impossibility. The other EZ nations would never be able to get the popular support even if they tried, aren't in exceptionally good economic shape themselves and Syriza's antics have burned too many bridges.
Status quo more and more seems like a wash though. It hasn't worked and very few people seem to expect it will work. It maintains Greece at some level of functionality but it's basically purgatory with no end in sight.
So a "No" in the referendum and a Grexit would probably be the only option. The immediate economic damage would be catastrophic and the EU would probably have to provide emergency aid in the first phase but a reset is needed, both economically, politicaly and diplomatically. That is providing they manage to stay in the EU at the very least. A Greek exit from both the EMU and EU would leave them completely alone and almost rogue, it could be cataclysmic. Just imagine the impact of losing free trade with EU countries, having to renegotiate treaties and attempting to pay for vital imports with a massively weakened Drachma while the loss of freedom of movement risks devastating the tourism industry... it boggles the mind.
It's a tightrope. But no matter what happens Greece can't burn all their bridges with the EU, they will need assistance after the reset.
Europe needs a reboot.
Greece desperately needs a reboot.
If this won't change things I don't known what will. Italy defaulting and taking everyone with them maybe.
Theonik
Member
Well they can afford to be more flexible when they are adjusting their prices and also are in the neat position where they make money regardless of whether people decide to go for cheaper vacations in Turkey.
But of course everything is conspiracy theory nonsense.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Greece would exit the EMU, not the EU. There is absolutely no mechanism by which a member can leave the EU other than by its own decision. At worst, other EU members can suspend active membership rights such as voting, but Greece would retain effectively everything else. A Grexit is a very different animal to, say, a Brexit.
I wish I could be hopeful that this will open the eyes of Germany and other rich countries but seeing the stalemate and the way everyone is behaving I doubt it.
I'm a pessimistic but I don't see that reboot happening. Most likely poor countries will simply either exit one at a time or be subjected to more and more austerity.
Theonik
Member
It is all up to the Greek government to decide, but similarly there is no mechanism allowing them to leave the Euro. Something would have to be agreed somewhere. Maybe.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes there is - Article 50 ("Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.")
Coriolanus
Banned
One can easily leave the euro (or the eu) by refusing to abide to their rules. In the case of the euro, all that takes is using another currency as the standard. In the case of the european union, all that'd take is blocking all the shit that makes them be in the union or saying that they'd no longer abide by it.
One cannot, however, be kicked out.
Exiting the EMU is an unprecedented event, there's no way to know the consequences with any degree of certainty. It is true that there's no mechanism to force a country out of the EU but diplomacy isn't law, extreme cases can create extreme outcomes. Especially if a Grexit is handled badly by all parties involved and considering the amount of money involved. But I am actually more concerned that something would drive Greece to do it voluntarily. A Grexit, no matter what it looks like, will be a huge event with a lot of tails that are difficult to predict. It's inherently chaotic. Some unforeseen major event could drive an even deeper wedge between Greece and the EU and cause things to change very quickly.
If this sounds too abstract consider Ukraine. It's obviously a very different situation and I'm not drawing any parallels except one: chaos can cause dramatic, sudden and unpredictable events. When the Ukrainians protested early last year they at most expected the president to cave and sign the EU agreement, or just ignore them. They ended up with a revolution, part of their nation annexed and a low-intensive war with Russia - previously considered a friendly nation, a brother even - in their eastern territories in a single year. No-one could have dreamt of predicting that.
I don't believe that an EU Grexit is particularly likely but when things move as fast as they do now with no-one at the helm anything is possible. Greece needs to make remaining in the EU a priority no matter what happens.
E-Cat
Member
You've got it backwards. The Treaties of the European Union do not specify a mechanism by which a member state can leave the euro currency. However, there is a way to resign from the EU, like you said.
PdotMichael
Banned
Ist the typeset for real?
Theonik
Member
I blame Microsoft.
Wouldn't it be stupid to talk about almost the same points as before for a new program, when the "No" vote wins later?
I feel like they have to wait for it.
Hmm...looks awfully rushed. Some grammar issues aside it contains at least two major spelling errors. Looks like Tsipras didn't have the time or care to have it proofread.
That aside it's certainly an interesting proposal. So another loan to pay off the old loans then, but to the ESM this time and combined with an attempt to restructure the ESFS debt. Playing for time basically.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't think you read what I said carefully enough?
We can't keep blaming others for Greece's mistakes.
Missed opportunity to use Comic Sans MS.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Tsipras has been opening WordPerfect files in MS Word.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Comic Sans is actually only the second worst default Windows font. True story.
E-Cat
Member
I read it as "you can leave the EMU without leaving the EU" which, to my knowledge, isn't a specified option.
Basically, he wants the IMF out, am I getting this right? I think the IMF being part of the bailouts was always a core demand by the other states.
Nice.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Well, no, it isn't. It would be more accurate to say "there is no specified mechanism for leaving the EMU other than simply refusing to use Euros and unilaterally printing one's own currency; however, doing this would not necessitate exiting the European Union which can only be done by the decision of the would-be leaver".
E-Cat
Member
I don't think that would work, tbh.
Theonik
Member
What's worse? Papyrus?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Got it in one.
Negotiator
Member
Greenland has left the EU (due to fishery), so everything is possible.
Iceland also doesn't want to join the EU for the exact same reason.
On the other hand, Greece's agriculture has gone down the drain thanks to CAP...
Iceland also doesn't want to join the EU for the exact same reason.
On the other hand, Greece's agriculture has gone down the drain thanks to CAP...
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
The were more people at the last festival I worked than live in Greenland, fact.
(About 60k tickets sold)
I'm not sure Greece and Greenland are that comparable.
Theonik
Member
Bad Microsoft fonts should have been the unifying issue the EU should have tried to solve rather than regulating the shape of bananas.
Negotiator
Member
What does that have to do with fishery and the Common Agricultural Policy?The were more people at the last festival I worked than live in Greenland, fact.
(About 60k tickets sold)
I'm not sure Greece and Greenland are that comparable.
I've been meaning to ask you about that: how has CAP resulted in Greek agriculture being negatively affected? Greece is the largest beneficiary per capita. Criticism against CAP is usually that the subsidies results in oversupply combined with higher food prices, why would this somehow damage Greek agriculture? I'm not saying you're wrong, it just seems counter-intuitive.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Hahaha @ Merkel now saying no new proposal until after the referendum.
Until now it was "the door is still open!", Tsipras comes back and it's "No! It's closed!".
How more obvious can they be.
Until now it was "the door is still open!", Tsipras comes back and it's "No! It's closed!".
How more obvious can they be.
CyclopsRock
Member
I literally laughed out loud at work at this.
She always said that, the reporting on this is so biased...
Yeah, let us hear people of Greece first.
gutter_trash
Banned
interesting that instead of using guns and tank, now Angggela Merkel is using money to squeeze Greece.
And on the other side you have Vladimir Putin laughing waiting to take advantage of Greece leaving the Euro so he can poke for at the Euro
Greece could be stupid enough to side with Putin
And on the other side you have Vladimir Putin laughing waiting to take advantage of Greece leaving the Euro so he can poke for at the Euro
Greece could be stupid enough to side with Putin
More desperate than stupid.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
More stupid than desperate actually, the Kremlin came out publicly yesterday to say no to financial aid to Greece and that their troubles were their own and the EU's to solve.
It is really scary to see how the Greece and other EU media differ from how and what they report.
Every greek should read some news from the other 27 EU nations and, and every french / german / czech / swede / and so on should read some greek reports.
Maybe this might help to solve some problems and to understand the other side of the table.
Coriolanus
Banned
Putin isn't a moustache-twirling villain.
He's a machiavellian villain.
In that, he has ample company.
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