Agaisnt GOP, Sanders doing as good/better than Clinton in some key swing states.

Status
Not open for further replies.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...48769-poll-clinton-trails-in-key-swing-states

In Iowa, Rubio and Walker both hold an 8-percentage point lead over Clinton, while Bush would defeat her in the hypothetical matchup by 6 points.

In Colorado, Walker holds the largest lead over Clinton at 9 percentage points. Rubio follows shortly behind with an 8-point margin, while Bush leads by 5 percentage points.

Clinton’s margins are much closer in Virginia, but she’s still on the losing side of all three hypothetical contests. Bush and Walker lead her by 3 points, while Rubio leads by 2. All of those results are about within the margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) polls about as well as Clinton, if not better in some of the general election matchups in Iowa and Colorado, despite trailing the former secretary of State significantly in polls for the Democratic nomination. Vice President Joe Biden, who has not publicly announced a decision on 2016, matches up slightly worse than Clinton.

The full Quinnipiac University poll results can be found here.

It seems to me that some democrats are over estimating the general appeal of Hillary. She has weaknesses that should be addressed, not dismissed.

Also, Sanders seems to be not so unelectable as some democrats think he is.

Anyway, should Joe Biden run as a back up plan in case Hillary implodes and Sanders pulls a Ron Paul?
 
This poll seems to be an outlier to the others. I wouldn't put that much faith in it just yet. It's the trends that matter, not the points.
 
Sanders supporters when Clinton destroys him by 40+ points in all primary polls: "These polls are meaningless! It's just name recognition!"

Sanders supporters when he performs like a generic D (the same as Biden and Hillary) in one general election poll because of negative partisanship due to his lack of name recogntion: "This is so meaningful!"
 

USC-fan

Banned
I say 100x she a terrible candidate. Seems completely fake and back by wall street.

Please anyone real run against her...ugh.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
If this is a trend, then supporters of Bernie might have a point. However, supporters of Hillary are able to point to a very strong polling aggregate for their candidate that would suggest that this QPac poll is an outlier.

Jumping one on poll is very dangerous, and it's how Republicans thought Romney was going to win in 2012.

Yes, of course. One poll that goes with a trend of other polls showing Hillary loosing favorable opinions.

Discrediting polls is such a republican thing to do, though.

Not really -- she's up 10 points on Jeb in the latest ABC/WaPo poll and up on all Republicans by 4-12 points in Virginia in a PPP poll.

This could be the start of a trend, but at the time, it looks like an outlier. And if outliers didn't exist, that would be concerning.
 

Damaniel

Banned
M'kay. Just like Trump is going to get the republican nomination.

Exactly. Trying to infer the results of Presidential primaries a year before they wrap up (and months before they even start) is like trying to read tea leaves or chicken entrails. I'll start to take polling more seriously once we get within a couple weeks of the first primaries (and probably not completely seriously until New Hampshire and Iowa are out of the way).
 
Yes, of course. One poll that goes with a trend of other polls showing Hillary loosing favorable opinions.

Discrediting polls is such a republican thing to do, though.

I'd say the trend is that Hillary had some eroded support but regained ground recently. Here's another poll from two days ago that shows she has a substantial lead over all Republic candidates and leads Sanders by 50 points in the primary:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-july-16-19-2015/1778/
 
If this is a trend, then supporters of Bernie might have a point. However, supporters of Hillary are able to point to a very strong polling aggregate for their candidate that would suggest that this QPac poll is an outlier.

Jumping one on poll is very dangerous, and it's how Republicans thought Romney was going to win in 2012.

Theres a trend upward for Sanders and downward for Clinton. Of course, Sanders is gaining marginal, inconsecuential points as of now in the country-wide scene (he has gained a lot of ground in Iowa and NH, though), but Hillary losing favorable ratings is something almost every major poll shows. This should be something the Clinton campaign should take into serious consideration.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Theres a trend upward for Sanders and downward for Clinton. Of course, Sanders is gaining marginal, inconsecuential points as of now in the country-wide scene (he has gained a lot of ground in Iowa and NH, though), but Hillary losing favorable ratings is something almost every major poll shows. This should be something the Clinton campaign should take into serious consideration.

Actually, I edited my post to show that most major polls show her favorability stabilizing. Until I see evidence to the contrary, this looks like an outlier.

If there are a series of three to four polls in a row showing Bernie overtaking Hillary Clinton and Hillary Clinton losing considerably to major Republican candidates in key states from multiple polling operations, yes, that would be concerning for the Clinton camp. But that's not what happening (at least, not yet), and to read into this poll too much is also overlooking the polling landscape that shows this is probably and outlier.

That doesn't mean that Hillary doesn't have trust issues as a key part of her electability problem. Anyone who watches elections knew that would be an issue. But she's been pretty durable, so I would be surprised if her numbers took a dramatic tumble for no discernible reason.
 
If this is a trend, then supporters of Bernie might have a point. However, supporters of Hillary are able to point to a very strong polling aggregate for their candidate that would suggest that this QPac poll is an outlier.

Jumping one on poll is very dangerous, and it's how Republicans thought Romney was going to win in 2012.



Not really -- she's up 10 points on Jeb in the latest ABC/WaPo poll and up on all Republicans by 4-12 points in Virginia in a PPP poll.

This could be the start of a trend, but at the time, it looks like an outlier. And if outliers didn't exist, that would be concerning.

I get you, but the trend is very real. Just take a look at HuffPost aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Pollster Trend

Unfavorable 48.8%
Favorable 44.0%

This is the first time her unfavorable numbers are bigger than her favorables since 2009. Of course this was meant to happen as soon as she jumped into the race but the trend is there and should be addressed by her campaign.
 
It's an outlier poll.

People and media never learn. You don't put any stock in any one poll. Get back to me when there is a clear trend from other pollsters. And please apply this to any elections!
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I get you, but the trend is very real. Just take a look at HuffPost aggregate:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating



This is the first time her unfavorable numbers are bigger than her favorables since 2009. Of course this was meant to happen as soon as she jumped into the race but the trend is there and should be addressed by her campaign.

Okay, but favorables are different than poll numbers. Her favorites will also inevitably rise once she wins the nomination and clears the field, as these things happen.
 
It's an outlier poll.

People and media never learn. You don't put any stock in any one poll. Get back to me when there is a clear trend from other pollsters. And please apply this to any elections!

When it comes to the Sanders and the GOP leading part I wouldnt call it an outlier poll because this is laser focused just in three swing states, I have yet not seen many state focused polls (just a couple in Iowa and NH). Of course nationwide most polls still show a confortable lead for Hillary.

It is not an outlier in regards of Hillary Clinton favorable numbers dropping.
 
When it comes to the Sanders and the GOP leading part I wouldnt call it an outlier poll because this is laser focused just in three swing states, I have yet not seen many state focused polls (just a couple in Iowa and NH). Of course nationwide most polls still show a confortable lead for Hillary.

It is not an outlier in regards of Hillary Clinton favorable numbers dropping.

What are the trends of these state specific polls lately? Again, it's still one poll. One company's methodology and sampling makes a big difference as well, it's why we need trends of different polls.

Until the other state specific polls come out, it's a huge mistake to put a lot of stock into any individual poll.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
It's a junk poll that leads far too Republican if you look at the cross section of voters as compared to 2012.

Well, party ID is volatile. I wouldn't really take that into consideration when judging the merits of a poll.

I would more look at like this: If Hillary Clinton continues to domination Republicans in national and state polls, it's an outlier. If she doesn't, then this is the start of a larger trend. The money's on it being an outlier, given similar polls released by ABC/WaPo and PPP this week, but it could always be a trend. But it's probably not.

Also the election is in 15 months.
 

soleil

Banned
I have already accepted that Sanders is not going to win. I'm not able to vote in the Democratic primary anyway, but I still would if I could just based on my personal beliefs.

Clinton has got this in the bag. I would be absolutely shocked if she managed to lose it this time.
You can re-register yourself as a Democrat to vote in the Democrat primary.
 

wildfire

Banned
It's a junk poll that leads far too Republican if you look at the cross section of voters as compared to 2012.

That statement is an endorsement that Sanders is generally more appealing than Clinton. In reality it just shows how ignorant we can be of candidates.
 

zelas

Member
Yes, of course. One poll that goes with a trend of other polls showing Hillary loosing favorable opinions.

Discrediting polls is such a republican thing to do, though.
Holding on to one poll and ignoring the overall narrative is such a republican thing to do.
 

gcubed

Member
Holding on to one poll and ignoring the overall narrative is such a republican thing to do.

Not really republican. Its a thing losers do. Same thing happened on the democrats side during the midterms. Analyzing outliers to make yourself feel better is what losers do.
 
Joe Biden running... The man lost his son not long ago. I don't think anyone would be able to get into their A-game after a thing like that, and not so soon afterwards.
 

pigeon

Banned
Yes, of course. One poll that goes with a trend of other polls showing Hillary loosing favorable opinions.

Discrediting polls is such a republican thing to do, though.

I'm not discrediting the poll. I'm giving it exactly the credit it deserves, which is no more or less than any other poll done recently. In a universe where Hillary has been leading every GOP candidate and outperforming Sanders against them in every other poll, one poll that shows the opposite means that it's slightly less likely that Hillary is the dominant candidate. But still pretty likely.

If a bunch more polls turn up this week that show Hillary losing to the GOP and running even with Sanders, then that hypothesis will gain a lot more credence. If the rest of the polls this week show the old status quo, then it'll fall out of discussion.

That's how polls work!
 
I'm not discrediting the poll. I'm giving it exactly the credit it deserves, which is no more or less than any other poll done recently. In a universe where Hillary has been leading every GOP candidate and outperforming Sanders against them in every other poll, one poll that shows the opposite means that it's slightly less likely that Hillary is the dominant candidate. But still pretty likely.

If a bunch more polls turn up this week that show Hillary losing to the GOP and running even with Sanders, then that hypothesis will gain a lot more credence. If the rest of the polls this week show the old status quo, then it'll fall out of discussion.

That's how polls work!

Not just that but losing Iowa to Rubio and Walker by 8 points? Losing Colorado by 9 points? It's joke status when other polls show nothing similar to that.
 
New PPP poll from VA.

We also tested Bernie Sanders against the key Republicans and he trails all of them except Trump. His deficits are 7 points against Jeb Bush (44/37), 5 points against Marco Rubio (41/36), and 1 point against Scott Walker (40/39). Against Trump, Sanders leads 47/37. On average Sanders does 8 points worse than Clinton against the Republicans in these head to head match ups.
Maybe we should calm down with this crazy talk about Sanders.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Bernie Sanders is not going to happen, as much as I wish this country was the sort that had a viable third and fourth party and where socialists or libertarians could win the presidency. If you've followed politics in America long enough, you understand the many reasons it won't happen. It's not even close to an Obama situation either, who had favorable head winds (a disastrous Bush presidency), was eviscerating most of his Republican candidates across the board by this point in polls by fairly large numbers (July 2007), and the glow of an insanely popular DNC speech and the transcendent racial barriers interest... and was a phenomenal speaker (Sanders says things I support far more, but optics matters and he really is not a great public speaker).

All this is not to say Hillary doesn't have clear weaknesses or that many aren't overestimating her appeal. But it basically means if Hillary doesn't happen, Democrats better start worrying about their plan B, because Sanders is genuinely not electable in this country.
 
I honestly don't see Sanders and Clinton's policy as being too different from each other (And that might be me not knowing enough), from what we know so far. I'd rather wait until we get debates and solid stances from both candidates before pushing or backing one over the other.
 
I honestly don't see Sanders and Clinton's policy as being too different from each other (And that might be me not knowing enough), from what we know so far. I'd rather wait until we get debates and solid stances from both candidates before pushing or backing one over the other.

I think the things they say might be different, but the things they get done will probably be very similar. Doesn't matter if Bernie is the President if the make up of the Senate is the same.
 

dramatis

Member
It is the best we can do, but I wouldn't call it a huge problem if it was a 'competence contest'.
If it were solely a 'competence contest', Hillary would still probably trump out all of the candidates though. She was a prominent part of Clinton's presidency for eight years, served as a senator where she worked on legislation, and then served as secretary of state for experience in foreign relations. It's hard to argue that anybody has more preparation for the position than she does lol

I think voting is only partially a popularity contest. 'Competence' is part of a campaign too. Part of the reason Hillary lost in 2008 is because Obama ran a better campaign.
 
But this poll has the GOP beating both of them

These polls are highly highly questionable. It's possible they're right and everything else has been wrong. A big part of it is the demographic makeup of the polls. The Colorado numbers were something like 29% Republican, 26% Democrat and 36% Independent.

That's....not likely. That's not even close to likely. In 2014, when we Democrats were smashed, the breakdown was 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent. In 2012, the numbers favored the Democrats by a few points.

There's simply no way in any swing state the numbers are going to look like Q is saying. Party identification may be fluid, but there's simply no way Republicans will outnumber Democrats in a General Election.
 

soleil

Banned
I honestly don't see Sanders and Clinton's policy as being too different from each other (And that might be me not knowing enough), from what we know so far. I'd rather wait until we get debates and solid stances from both candidates before pushing or backing one over the other.

On the $15 Minimum Wage:
Sanders: Unequivocally in favor of $15 minimum wage, and also wants to make it a living wage.
Clinton: Double speak. Told some protesters that she supported their fight for the $15, and when reporters tried to ask her if she was endorsing the $15 minimum wage, her campaign aide told them she wasn't endorsing the $15 minimum wage specifically, just the fight to get it.

On Health Care:
Sanders: Single Payor.
Clinton: Has not endorsed single payor. Evidence suggests she is open to it but is not willing to fight for it. In the 90s, two doctors approached her (as she was First Lady) and pitched single payor. She told them they had a convincing case but how are they to fight the millions of dollars the insurance companies would spent to lobby against it? The doctors said the President could lead the people. She said "Tell me something real."

On the Trans-Pacific Partnership:
Sanders: Unequivocally against it.
Clinton: Despite pushing it 45 times as Secretary of State, she now says she can't take a hard stance on it until she sees the final text, although she did say that Obama should address Pelosi's concerns about it.

On Breaking up the Banks:
Sanders: Unequivocally for it.
Clinton: Has said that Wall Street should be held accountable, but has not called for breaking up the banks.

On Free College Education:
Sanders: Unequivocally for it.
Clinton: Has not endorsed this idea, though she does say that college should be affordable.

On the Patriot Act / NSA surveillance:
Sanders: Wants the Patriot Act repealed or at least to majorly reform and the NSA curbed majorly.
Clinton: Has not endorsed either action although says the NSA should be more transparent and should act "lawfully."

Beyond that, there are other differences:

1) Clinton is better at messaging, assuming she is willing to get behind the message instead of equivocating.

2) Clinton's donors are Wall Street individuals. Sanders' are Union PACs, but the thing is, Union members donate to the PAC and the PAC donates to the candidate, so it's really union individuals where his money came from. A union member is not an "employee" of the union and therefore individuals that are part of a union (but don't work for the actual union) that choose give money will not be listed under the union.

3) Method of passing agenda. Clinton obviously has a record of compromise with Republicans. Sanders does too, despite public perception. But one major difference is that Sanders also intends on keeping the public involved, and using public pressure (demonstrations, marches, protests, etc) to get Republicans to give in.

4) For me personally, the biggest difference is Clinton's past presents consistency/sincerity issues:

Clinton only backed gay marriage in 2013, after the public opinion was in majority support. Sanders backed full gay rights since 1972.

Clinton as First Lady was a huge proponent of Tough on Crime policies, which escalated the same mass incarceration she is now saying she will fight. Tough on Crime started with Reagan and Bush Sr., and Hillary and Bill happily continued it.

Clinton's donors presents an issue with believing that she really intends on fighting money in politics.

Lastly, I want to add that even though there are articles out there claiming that presidents generally try to keep their promises, the methodology used to determine what constitutes and "attempt" is heavily flawed. Anyone can wait until the opposing party takes over Congress and then introduce a bill you know that will fail and then claim credit for trying to keep their promise. And even if their bill passes, it's the fine print (not literally fine print, just the legislation that goes unadvertised) that gets tacked on during committees that allows loopholes. How else do so many major companies pay next to nothing in corporate income tax? All the hard ways to detect corruption can't be fought with making politicians promise this or that. It has to be fought by voting out politicians that take money from Wall Street.
 

Afrodium

Banned
Trump is leading polls right now because only frying conservatives are voting in polls like this at the moment. The same applies to the other side of the aisle.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom