Hillary Clinton has a 68 % chance of winning the election per 538 (Down from 90 %)
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Lol what? Secretaries of State usually only serve a term. She likely resigned so she could put together her presidential run.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yep, it wouldn't be a Trump/Clinton thread without a totally and completely inaccurate Brexit comparison. All we need know is the fear of the "silent majority who are afraid to say they will vote for someone in anonymous polls but not afraid to vote for them in anonymous voting" and comparisons to Hitler, and we'll have the trifecta
That's probably the most scathing article I've seen on 538. And it hurts that all of it rings true.
Smokey_Run
Member
Wasn't there a similar thread about the same projection just a few months ago?
Nate is too much of a pundit now. Gotta make it a horse race.
Nate is too much of a pundit now. Gotta make it a horse race.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
They are a she, and just don't find Hillary to be a good enough candidate for her.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
i have a feeling he learned his own lessons from that though. seems like he let emotion get to him. lets see though and judge him on the election picks, with obama he called almost everything down to 'i can see the future' type level.
KefkaPalazzo
Member
Did anyone really think she was going to maintain that massive of a lead until the election?
It's for the best for Trump to have a chance anyways, avoids potential Hillary voters from getting too relaxed and sitting at home on election day.
It's for the best for Trump to have a chance anyways, avoids potential Hillary voters from getting too relaxed and sitting at home on election day.
excelsiorlef
Member
So she becomes the biggest Trump cheerleader here?... Come on.
Lord Frieza
Member
That is actually a pretty low level of fluctuation overall. Look at the chart that accompanies the map to see how slow the actual progression of Trump's recovery has been.
It's not really that close.
If he managed to secure an unheard of amount of the white vote, it's possible, but even then he's polling behind what Romney was polling with white voters at the same time in '12, and McCain in '08. It's not impossible, but it not very probable.
Spiritreaver
Member
You gotta link your polls when you talk about them. Can't just spout out numbers. Sometimes context can be important when it comes to polls. We're in a fucking 538 thread, use the site lol.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/#plus
The Florida poll you mentioned is from over a week ago and is a low quality pollster.
Team Alucard
Banned
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
Guys she was in hospital - it wasn't a long term illness but it was one that impacted her. She left shortly after. Take what you want from that but its the reason the coughing stuff is in the media. She resigned a month after getting out of hospital.
Her isolation does not help this image. That's my only point and I think most would say she needs to be seen more often for these things not to be taken so seriously in some quarters.
The appearance of health is always a huge part of leadership and will affect how she is viewed.
Her isolation does not help this image. That's my only point and I think most would say she needs to be seen more often for these things not to be taken so seriously in some quarters.
The appearance of health is always a huge part of leadership and will affect how she is viewed.
and trump looks healthy?
Aaron Strife
Banned
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-president-trump-vs-clinton
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
No amount of coughing is going to save your nazi ass candidate.
She's also ahead in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Iowa.
Did anything else happen in late 2012 or early 2013 that might conceivably have been related? Anything at all come to mind?
Ninja Scooter
Member
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
I keep forgetting not to take you seriously. My bad.
The point wasn't about Brexit itself, it was about complacency about a result but whatever.
Huh? If it was an open race, Trump would have probably performed much better then than he does today. There was no BLM in 2004, no nationally popular movement for gay marriage rights, no Obama coalition.
Lord Frieza
Member
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
1. I think you missed (probably intentionally) what he was saying
2. I find it funny that the only map you can find to a Trump victory that I've seen you post multiple times is a tie map, something that is rarer than even a full '84 style blowout.
HerbertBirdsfoot
Member
Hillary is getting a LOT of unfavorable press lately. A lot of the incentives for journalists right now push them toward Hillary corruption type of reporting.
The narrative that is forming is that Hillary is the smart but corrupt/untrustworthy one. Trump might not know anything and he holds a lot of repellent opinions but he's not presented as corrupt.
Well it looks like he paid off Pam Bondi in FL to shut down the Trump U. investigation. He should be hit hard on that. But instead we get all kinds of Clinton Foundation innuendo.
Because it better fits the narrative.
The narrative that is forming is that Hillary is the smart but corrupt/untrustworthy one. Trump might not know anything and he holds a lot of repellent opinions but he's not presented as corrupt.
Well it looks like he paid off Pam Bondi in FL to shut down the Trump U. investigation. He should be hit hard on that. But instead we get all kinds of Clinton Foundation innuendo.
Because it better fits the narrative.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
This is Trump's best case scenario map, and it's still not very likely. Florida and New Hampshire are highly unlikely to happen for him outside of a massive republican wave.
Rabbi_Vole
Banned
I honestly can't see the debates making any difference. Trump would have to drop at least 2 C bombs and a half dozen N words while wearing black face to have any impact. Trumps going to keep everything at 40,000 feet. There will be no specifics and any attempt to get him to drill down will be met with crowd pleasing platitudes and conversation course change. In debate and speaking in general, you're taught if you don't like the subject.. If the topic is not your strong suit, change it. Both candidates are covered in Teflon.. Nothing is going to stick making the whole debate schedule a complete waste of time.
No. It was very clear how many morons this country has. A man whose platform is anti minority and building a wall has a good shot at being president.
Weve already taken an L as a nation. This is permanent though. Morons aren't going to go into hiding and neither will kkk folks. They've all been triggered by trump to be proud of manking the country white again.
Meanwhile Hillary is damn near on her death bed.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
First and foremost, I fucking LOVE that 269/269 is the winning Trump map. Shit is gold I tell you. WINNING PATH.
Second and more important, no chance in hell that Trump is winning NH or FL. I mean you can seriously hang that up.
Ninja Scooter
Member
The problem is that these kinds of narratives at this point in the election are just fuel for the people that have their minds made up. It's hard to imagine any of this bullshit really moving the needle in any meaningful way in terms of the electoral map. Yea he people that think Hillary is crooked think she's even more crooked. The people that think Trump is an incompetent asshole continue to think he's an incompetent asshole. This is all just noise at this point. We might as well just have the election today because I don't see much serious movement on either side over the next 2 months.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Not to sound morbid, but if something happened to her, she gets replaced by Tim Kaine who might as well change his name to Generic Democrat.
Concerns about Clinton's health are silly from a standpoint of "who will lead the nation?" because Kaine is infinitely superior to Trump and Pence.
SolidSnakeUS
Member
I'm not worried. We're just in a lull right now until the debates show up. Trump (if he even shows up) will get demolished in the debates.
Lord Frieza
Member
Nah, let's not get carried away. Trump's rise is really a result of the GOP's fracturing, and their mission of sowing as much seeds of doubt and hate about their current government through right-wing propaganda and media. While you can see festerings of that, it really wasn't until Obama's election that you saw that go into full motion, and give way to things like the Tea Party and the disenfranchisement of the party as a whole. Trump came about because of specific circumstances that have developed over the last decade. In '04, I highly doubt he would have gotten anywhere, the political landscape, especially for the GOP, was significantly different.
A lot of the things you posted as being against Trump is actually a lot of the things that lead to him getting where he has.
JetSetRadio
Banned
She drew the worst possible opponent, poor gal.
But it's funny.
But it's funny.
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
Once again another map that shows its impossible for Trump to win...
Lets all calm the fuck down. Obama was behind in the 538 metrics at various points in time and won handily. Nate's model this year swings far more wildly than it has in the past and is more susceptible to changes in polling. Not sure I agree with his methodology, but it did the same thing during the RNC. It tends to predict momentum not ebbing, so it's extrapolating a closer race than exists right now compared to other predictive models out there. So, 538 is going to show wilder swings this year than in the past.
The debates will change the game and should swing in Hillary's favor.
More than anything people aren't really paying attention to either candidate, which is helpful for Trump because not being in the news is better than his dumb ass getting coverage.
It'll be a matter of time before he decides to start spewing nonsense.
That said, that CNN poll is fucking weird. He is losing college educated white and minority votes handily but is still winning? I don't want to unskew polls, but something doesn't smell right about that demographic breakdown.
The debates will change the game and should swing in Hillary's favor.
More than anything people aren't really paying attention to either candidate, which is helpful for Trump because not being in the news is better than his dumb ass getting coverage.
It'll be a matter of time before he decides to start spewing nonsense.
That said, that CNN poll is fucking weird. He is losing college educated white and minority votes handily but is still winning? I don't want to unskew polls, but something doesn't smell right about that demographic breakdown.
I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.
NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.
Um, what poll shows Trump ahead in NH, Ohio, and Florida?
Lord Frieza
Member
This really isn't true at all. A 1-on-1 debate cannot be so easily derailed like a primary debate, because you only have one person there to constantly check you. Trump will also have to give several minute answers to questions, which is just going to lead to him being overly repetitive, as shown in the past when he goes on and on. There's no doubts that we're going to see the weakness of Trump in the debates. The real question is whether he's going to get so flustered that he goes off the rails, or if he manages to stay cool.
This is a very important point. Trump's debate strategy was to shout insane 1 liners and then let everyone else talk for 2-3 minutes about things he didn't understand, and then chime in and try and sound tough.
That's going to be hard to do 1 v 1.
I also suspect as the polls tighten that 3rd party support will shift to Hillary. It seems that she has lost some voters to the libertarian party (poor Stein), and I would expect especially in swing states for those to peel back to Hillary.
Lord Frieza
Member
The TA Times.
Violence Jack
Member
All that these numbers are telling me is she's probably not winning in a blowout like some thought she would.
chrisPjelly
Member
"BUT, she has a 100% chance of becoming a skeleton"
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Considering that a good portion of Republicans aren't voting for Trump, a blowout is still possible.
In the end, there's a high chance the Senate is swinging back to Dem control in either case. A blowout just makes it likely that the house flips too.
We should all be hoping for a blowout.
Sure but if she falls out, I don't think that means a definite democratic victory. They are silly, but biff Tannen is running for president.
Low turnout would kill it. She's already unliked. This whole thing is going to be too close for comfort. But glad it's happening. This country has been in denial about how fucked up things are, from race to poltiical games. People are sick and tired of being sick and tired. Has positive faces, and ugly ones. BUT every th ing is out on the table now. The nation can actually work on a game plan now to deal with the realities of this country.
I don't disagree, I'm just saying I think the "cultural conditions" of 2004 were more predisposed toward a successful "win the white vote, win the White House" campaign strategy than today.
Lord Frieza
Member
Yep, and Trump has shown consistently that he feeds off a crowd. Compare the recent rally in Arizona about immigration, and how fired up the crowd was, and how fired up it made him. Compare that to, say, the Pennsylvania rally he had a few weeks back (the one with the really bizarre charts he held up), and how much smaller and deader the crowd was there, and how much more docile he is. And his comments about how his debate strategy is about being a spectacle, akin to a Wrestlemania main event, shows this to be something he's aware of, to some degree. I think the fact that the crowd is silent during the debates is going to take a lot of the wind out of his sails, a lot more than probably maybe even he realizes it will.
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