Support NeoGAF

[elrechazado]

Nate's model needs to be more stable for it to be a good predictor model. Whats the point if it oscillates like crazy?

What? The model fluctuates because the inputs fluctuate. What do you think a model is?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Yes, they have. I don't mean good decisions in general, I mean good decisions to bring any straggling supporters back on board. That's why I said Trump decisions.

His campaign is obviously a lot more stable and on target now that back around the Khans. At least in the eyes of the people that want to support him.

Like, what decisions are we talking about? Holding rallies in States that he's guaranteed to win? Or doing an outreach to minorities, then shitting all over that by giving the most xenophobic based speech he's given through his whole run? Or maybe putting a Pastor front and center as the voice of his black support who was exposed as being a total fraud to almost every claim he made that could be fact-checked in probably less than an hour?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The most accurate polls before the last ones are late augusts polls, what were the numbers for that?

There was a decent spread but it all averaged to around +4 Clinton in a four-way race.

+1 Trump (Rasmussen)
Tie (IDB)
+2 Clinton (Morning Consult)
+2 Clinton (Fox)
+4 Clinton (NBC)
+5 Clinton (PPP)
+7 Clinton (Quinnipiac)
+7 Clinton (Suffolk)
+7 Clinton (Monmouth)

I may be missing

 

[Schlorgan]

*cough*

First response wins again.

 

[Abounder]

Hell, I still can't believe the president of Mexico dignified the orange birther with a legit meeting. Trump might as well be graded on a goddamn curve though.

 

[mo60]

Yep, it wouldn't be a Trump/Clinton thread without a totally and completely inaccurate Brexit comparison. All we need know is the fear of the "silent majority who are afraid to say they will vote for someone in anonymous polls but not afraid to vote for them in anonymous voting" and comparisons to Hitler, and we'll have the trifecta

Yeah. I don't get the brexit comparisons.Trump's polling trend looks like what you would expect in an election where the conservative candidate/party can't appeal beyond their base(i.e. federal election in 2015 Canadian election for example even though in that election the conservative party always had a higher chance of winning that election then trump does of winning this election currently).

 

[Durden77]

Like, what decisions are we talking about? Holding rallies in States that he's guaranteed to win? Or doing an outreach to minorities, then shitting all over that by giving the most xenophobic based speech he's given through his whole run? Or maybe putting a Pastor front and center as the voice of his black support who was exposed as being a total fraud to almost every claim he made that could be fact-checked in probably less than an hour?

Yeah, pretty much all of that. He's continuing to appeal to his demographic, high class white people. He's just making them feel less shitty about by doing it through black people.

You act like he actually wants to appeal to people other than whites or something.

 

[MIMIC]

Hillary really needs Trump to say something stupid again

 

[Madness]

First debate results will matter more. Trump has a chance to find the chink in her armor, otherwise Hillary will obliterate him in front of a unified electorate watching. Unlike Republican debates it isn't about who can hoo-rah the hardest, but you need centrist style ideals to try and sway independents or voters who aren't just going to vote party lines no matter what.

Even then, I just don't think Trump has any shot. The declining white male vote is not enough, and he has alienated a lot of white women who would lean Hillary.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Yeah, pretty much all of that. He's continuing to appeal to his demographic, high class white people. He's just making them feel less shitty about by doing it through black people.

You act like he actually wants to appeal to people other than whites or something.

You act like it's good decisions to appeal only to a group that really can't win him the election alone? Or that anything I listed is good...period. Because, nothing there is good...for anyone.

 

[Hickbilly Deluxe]

I haven't witnessed a more lousy liberal candidate in my entire lifetime.

To young to remember Gore blowing what should have been an easy win I take it?

Some older forum members probably remember Mondale getting the shit kicked out of him as well, he barely won his home state and lost everywhere else.

 

[Rabbi_Vole]

Hillary really needs Trump to say something stupid again

When has stupid ever hurt Trump?

 

[BluePigGanon]

I feel like this probably isn't true, though I don't have sources handy. The Kerry/Bush election was a super tight one the whole way through more or less. I think the debates don't matter a lot when the two candidates are more or less on equal footing. And, I know, I know, Bush has a rep for being a doofus and totally retarded and etc., etc., but the reality is that he knew what he was doing, even if the fact that he was a horrible speaker (and possibly had the absolutely worst speeches ever) colored him a different way. He may have gotten destroyed in those debates (I really don't recall), but I doubt it was that bad to the general public.

Let's face it, Hillary and Trump are not on equal footing at all. Trump consistently shows he has no real policies outside his fantasy la-la land wall and Muslim ban and his vanilla as hell tax policy that even he seems to have forgotten. He also has very little grasp on current policies, current events, and is totally clueless on foreign policy to an almost comedic degree. His strategy in debates so far has been to start a fire, let everyone else drag themselves into, shut up and wait for more opportunities to start fires. Not only is this strategy not a good one for 1-on-1 debating, he's also debating one of the best political debaters on the current landscape, someone who isn't easily going to be shook. He's also shown that he really doesn't like it when debates don't go his way, such as the debacle with Megyn Kelly.

Clinton, on the other hand, has a lot of experience in debating, she knows how to handle herself incredibly well, and knows policy to almost startlingly T. She understands the ebb and flow of it, and isn't going to be dragged into the mud easily, and is going to challenge her opponent (which, as said above. Trump has an issue with).

There's such a gap there that I think this debate is going to highlight the large discrepancies between the two, and it has the potential to have a serious effect. I mean, really, just going to videos of Trump speaking to Hillary speaking can be jarring, since he's overly repetitious, uses basic vocabulary, and really doesn't have a good handle on structures of speeches. While Hillary speaks like...well, like a person above high school level basically. And while she isn't the best speaker, she has an obvious grasp of the language, uses varied language, and ultimately understands that speeches aren't just a collection of thoughts you shit out and need to have some degree of structure and points.

Oh I totally am with you. If debates would ever make a difference, it would/should be this time. And I'm hoping they do make a difference - personally, Clinton beating Trump isn't enough for me, I feel on principle he needs to be beaten badly.

I just read a couple things recently pointing out that in recent history they haven't, or even if they did it was temporary.

 

[7DollarHagane]

When has stupid ever hurt Trump?

His attacks on that family of the veteran who died did some serious damage. Not all his absurd statements have been publicity that was welcome.

 

[Lord Frieza]

When has stupid ever hurt Trump?

Where were you during the Khans? Where were you during his completely tanking in the general election post-DNC? Where were you his Orlando Shootings comments? Etc. etc.

The Trump is Unstoppable narrative has long been overthrown

 

[BlastProcessing]

What? The model fluctuates because the inputs fluctuate. What do you think a model is?

Other election models use the same inputs and have been far more stable.

Examples being The Upshot or PEC.

Also take note how they only have one model instead of 538's strange shotgun approach.

Compared to it's peers, 538 has been odd this year and I'm not sure how you can argue otherwise.

 

[jstripes]

To young to remember Gore blowing what should have been an easy win I take it?

The NY Times had a good article on that, and the similarities to now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/opinion/hillary-clinton-gets-gored.html?_r=0

 

[whyamihere]

Other election models use the same inputs and have been far more stable.

Examples being The Upshot or PEC.

Also take note how they only have one model instead of 538's strange shotgun approach.

Compared to it's peers, 538 has been odd this year and I'm not sure how you can argue otherwise.

Yeah, Upshot and PEC have been remarkably stable this year compared to 538, which sort of makes sense since the race itself has been pretty stable in state polling outside of the conventions.

I haven't witnessed a more lousy liberal candidate in my entire lifetime.
And people like Nate Silver & Paul Krugman, when they over-defend her, feed the rightful skepticism and paranoia over how much of an insider she is.

Well, Kerry, Gore, Dukakis and Mondale were pretty awful candidates since none of them ended up, you know, winning.

 

[jrush64]

I've been telling you guys, Trumps got this in the bag... Unfortunately. Just you wait.

 

[whyamihere]

I've been telling you guys, Trumps got this in the bag... Unfortunately. Just you wait.

Wait for what? Hillary Clinton a hair under a 70% chance of winning (according to 538), and holds sizable leads in key swing states that Trump would need in order to win the election. How does he "have this in the bag"?

 

[Coffee Dog]

Edit: nvm, OP says that all threw are polling similarly.

 

[Lord Frieza]

The NY Times had a good article on that, and the similarities to now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/opinion/hillary-clinton-gets-gored.html?_r=0

That's a great article, and a lot of truth to it, but in context, the situation with the actual numbers weren't exactly the same. I don't think Bush was ever in the position Trump was in

 

[Eidan]

From prior threads on this, 538 has multiple prediction models, one of which seems geared to generate headlines.

Why are making threads about this without specifying which prediction model?

OP says which model he was using.

 

[mo60]

Considering that a good portion of Republicans aren't voting for Trump, a blowout is still possible.

In the end, there's a high chance the Senate is swinging back to Dem control in either case. A blowout just makes it likely that the house flips too.

We should all be hoping for a blowout.

The blowout will depend on her ground game and where she is polling in late october and early november. If she's polling in the mid to high single digits I can easily see hilary winning in a blowout since she may get a bigger boost than usual because of her great ground game compared to trump's horrible ground game currently. I think her win margin will be a bit above obama's win margin in 08, but she will probably win AZ,NC and GA instead of IN like Obama did in 08.

 

[trejo]

I'm still wondering what was the point of the entire meeting. Or what went through his mind by essentially meddling in another country's elections.

You made the mistake of thinking that anything goes through that idiot's mind at all.

 

[Torokil]

Considering that a good portion of Republicans aren't voting for Trump, a blowout is still possible.

That's really not true anymore. The few republicans still holding out are like the 12 people that post on Redstate. They're those Japanese dudes who continued to fight WW2 up until the 1970s.

 

[DudeWithNoName]

To young to remember Gore blowing what should have been an easy win I take it?

Some older forum members probably remember Mondale getting the shit kicked out of him as well, he barely won his home state and lost everywhere else.

I remember the Mondale ass kicking. I was in 4th grade and the teacher sent us home with a paper map of the US. Our assignment was to color in Mondale wins with blue and Reagan wins with red. That was pretty easy homework.

 

[Speevy]

Says who?

 

[RadioJoNES64]

One cough = -1%

 

[Atilac]

There was a decent spread but it all averaged to around +4 Clinton in a four-way race.

+1 Trump (Rasmussen)
Tie (IDB)
+2 Clinton (Morning Consult)
+2 Clinton (Fox)
+4 Clinton (NBC)
+5 Clinton (PPP)
+7 Clinton (Quinnipiac)
+7 Clinton (Suffolk)
+7 Clinton (Monmouth)

I may be missing

Then I assume she will win with plus 5-6 points until the last polls say otherwise. Calm down chicken littles, stay strong and vote.

 

[mo60]

That's really not true anymore. The few republicans still holding out are like the 12 people that post on Redstate. They're those Japanese dudes who continued to fight WW2 up until the 1970s.

The last time I checked under 90% of republican's were supporting trump. I think I saw numbers as low as 70% republicans supporting him.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Then I assume she will win with plus 5-6 points until the last polls say otherwise. Calm down chicken littles, stay strong and vote.

what i don't understand about all the chicken littling (when it comes from actual americans) is how they never mention anything about volunteering for the campaign

like, why y'all panicking so hard when you aren't even helping with the ground work

 

[Version 3.0]

Like, what decisions are we talking about? Holding rallies in States that he's guaranteed to win? Or doing an outreach to minorities, then shitting all over that by giving the most xenophobic based speech he's given through his whole run? Or maybe putting a Pastor front and center as the voice of his black support who was exposed as being a total fraud to almost every claim he made that could be fact-checked in probably less than an hour?

Trump hasn't had a major headline-grabbing "I can't believe he said that" one-liner in a couple of weeks now. He seems to have stuck to "policy", or at least, political topics, instead of insulting people or picking fights. But for Trump, that's all it takes to move back into "generic Republican" territory. Republicans want to support his, or at least they hate Hillary enough to do it as long as he's not actively repelling them.

If you're looking for Trump to do anything that would actually propel him beyond that, into the realm of appealing outside what "generic Republican" would do, you're going to be left waiting. Trump's not capable. He can barely, or should I say rarely, speak in coherent sentences. He can't "appear presidential", except by the ground-level bar set by his own party.

For Trump to move into that territory would require an actual Hillary scandal (as opposed to the manufactured or inflated ones we've had so far).

The last time I checked trump had a bit over 70% of republicans supporting him or a number under 90%.

I heard Hannity today say it's 75. I assume that's correct, even though almost nothing else he said was. Then he spent 10 minutes ranting about outlets that don't support Trump, like Glenn Beck, assigning them blame for everything that occurs when Hillary is in office. Such as immigrant being personally invited into the country to murder citizens.

 

[BraXzy]

Media and polling institutes will be seeking unusual polling data from now till November. But everyone should take this stuff seriously and vote. Vote. Vote.

Listen to this man, lest a Brexit befalls the rest of you.

 

[Atilac]

what i don't understand about all the chicken littling (when it comes from actual americans) is how they never mention anything about volunteering for the campaign

like, why y'all panicking so hard when you aren't even helping with the ground work

People would rather embrace the misery of fear, than the hope of changing things.

 

[Revolver]

Hillary really needs Trump to say something stupid again

Saying “I just don’t think she has a presidential look and you need a presidential look” probably isn't going to help him with women voters.

 

[sprsk]

This is just another Hillary slump, give it a week or two and see where we are, the debates will expose Trump.

 

[Rabbi_Vole]

Where were you during the Khans? Where were you during his completely tanking in the general election post-DNC? Where were you his Orlando Shootings comments? Etc. etc.

The Trump is Unstoppable narrative has long been overthrown

I agree these definitely wounded him.. temporarily.. but while they would have obliterated most candidates, he's found a way to bounce back. I honestly don't know what the point of no return is for Trump.

 

[robochimp]

When has stupid ever hurt Trump?

Attacking a gold star family and an American judge with Mexican heritage.

 

[Dirca]

This is just another Hillary slump, give it a week or two and see where we are, the debates will expose Trump.

As long as Hillary has a few prednisone shots prior and some Halls handy.

 

[jstripes]

Saying “I just don’t think she has a presidential look and you need a presidential look” probably isn't going to help him with women voters.

You'd be surprised.

 

[MetalGearZed]

One cough = -1%

Oh shit
Hold your breath queen pls

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Attacking a gold star family and an American judge with Mexican heritage.

Wait, that happened? COULD'VE FOOLED ME!

 

[Lord Frieza]

I agree these definitely wounded him.. temporarily.. but while they would have obliterated most candidates, he's found a way to bounce back. I honestly don't know what the point of no return is for Trump.

He's not really "bounced back," though. His recovery numbers have been poor overall in a month's time, and he's still doing poorly overall in electorate polling, and has single digit support from key minority groups. He's numbers have gone up, sure, but it was a bit of a pipe dream to think he would stay that low. But he's still doing very poor overall, and the drizzle of recovery after his massive tanking really aren't as great as a lot of people seem to think they are. Trump is far from unstoppable, and he's still pretty far from an actual victory with less than 60 days to election.

 

[rokkerkory]

Will worry after debates

 

[Mighty Chin]

I feel like this probably isn't true, though I don't have sources handy. The Kerry/Bush election was a super tight one the whole way through more or less. I think the debates don't matter a lot when the two candidates are more or less on equal footing. And, I know, I know, Bush has a rep for being a doofus and totally retarded and etc., etc., but the reality is that he knew what he was doing, even if the fact that he was a horrible speaker (and possibly had the absolutely worst speeches ever) colored him a different way. He may have gotten destroyed in those debates (I really don't recall), but I doubt it was that bad to the general public.

Let's face it, Hillary and Trump are not on equal footing at all. Trump consistently shows he has no real policies outside his fantasy la-la land wall and Muslim ban and his vanilla as hell tax policy that even he seems to have forgotten. He also has very little grasp on current policies, current events, and is totally clueless on foreign policy to an almost comedic degree. His strategy in debates so far has been to start a fire, let everyone else drag themselves into, shut up and wait for more opportunities to start fires. Not only is this strategy not a good one for 1-on-1 debating, he's also debating one of the best political debaters on the current landscape, someone who isn't easily going to be shook. He's also shown that he really doesn't like it when debates don't go his way, such as the debacle with Megyn Kelly.

Clinton, on the other hand, has a lot of experience in debating, she knows how to handle herself incredibly well, and knows policy to almost startlingly T. She understands the ebb and flow of it, and isn't going to be dragged into the mud easily, and is going to challenge her opponent (which, as said above. Trump has an issue with).

There's such a gap there that I think this debate is going to highlight the large discrepancies between the two, and it has the potential to have a serious effect. I mean, really, just going to videos of Trump speaking to Hillary speaking can be jarring, since he's overly repetitious, uses basic vocabulary, and really doesn't have a good handle on structures of speeches. While Hillary speaks like...well, like a person above high school level basically. And while she isn't the best speaker, she has an obvious grasp of the language, uses varied language, and ultimately understands that speeches aren't just a collection of thoughts you shit out and need to have some degree of structure and points.

She's gonna English him to Death.

 

[wumster3000]

I've given up hope on PA. Trump would probably need a 2%+ advantage over Hillary in the popular vote to flip it, which I'm not sure he can pull off.

NH will be the most difficult to flip, but in a tied popular vote its not out of the question.

Why not take this seriously? I know dude is team Trump, but this is very likely. He has the gift of gab with a certain subset.

Like everyone is saying worry after the debates. Romney had a lead over Obama and he got obliterated in November.

Trump is different, please don't think that he is done. Expect the polls to tighten even more. Don't look at them until mid to late October.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Why not take this seriously? I know dude is team Trump, but this is very likely. He has the gift of gab with a certain subset.

Like everyone is saying worry after the debates. Romney had a lead over Obama and he got obliterated in November.

Uh, this is very much not likely. A tie is rarer than a blowout, it's borderline fantasy to be completely honest.

 

[pigeon]

Why not take this seriously? I know dude is team Trump, but this is very likely.

No it isn't.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Trump is different, please don't think that he is done. Expect the polls to tighten even more. Don't look at them until mid to late October.

You're right, Trump is different. He most likely won't have the lead in October after the debates, and he's never actually had the lead before that. So, yeah, it's a very different scenario for sure.