Except that doesn't change the fact that the colts balls dropped less than the pats balls in the same conditions post measurement. Equation is linear. Your starting values are completely irrelevant because the "evidence" is in the relative drop of the balls in the same conditions.
Tom Brady's Suspension Appeal News
- Thread starter TheLostBigBoss
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Using the difference between the Colts and Patriots balls to suggest tampering has been thoroughly debunked. The Patriots balls are the ones which had the correct pressure given the conditions and assumptions. The questions is, why would the Colts balls be more inflated than they should have been? And it isn't hard to answer:
1. We don't have the starting measurements for the balls. The measurements and the gauges used were not recorded. Therefore it is not supportable to assume the 4 Colts balls that got tested started at 13.
2. Only 4 Colts balls were tested at halftime, before running out of time, in a warm environment. The time between measuring the Patriots and the Colts balls can explain the difference.
3. There was at least one unexplained gauge switch at halftime. The official who measured all the Patriots balls lower then measured 3/4 Colts balls higher. However, there is an additional oddity in the Colts measurements.
12.70, 12.35
12.75, 12.30
12.50, 12.95
12.55, 12.15
To explain this, it can be suggested that the officials switched gauges 3 times during halftime. First switching between measuring the Patriots and Colts balls, switching again for the 3rd Colts ball, then switching back yet again.
But my guess is they misread the measurement, marking the Colts at a 12.95 instead of a 12.05 or something (thus inflating their results). 12.95 itself is inconsistent with the assumption that they started at 13.
Basically, the difference tells us nothing. The Patriots measurements suggest that they did not deflate their balls, and the whole thing should have been dropped. The Colts measurements suggest... well, that we have no pre-game data, that the Colts balls were waiting in a warm environment before any of them got tested, and that they likely screwed up when testing them (or they were well over 13 to start with).
Which is explained by the fact that the Patriots balls were measured immediately at halftime while they were still cold, while the Colts balls were measured at the end of halftime after they had been sitting in a warm room for 10 minutes and were nearly acclimated to room temperature.
I'll try and find the quote (on mobile right now) but the appeal transcript shows that exponent never took the timing into consideration. They based the calculation of the balls as though they were all measured at the same time.
Wait...yes they did deflate the same amount. They just got to warm up in a cozy office for a bit before they were measured.
The science in the Wells Report is laughable.
Also, Wells asked Brady for a copy of his texts. Meaning, he asked him to select them. If he were guilty and there were texts explicitly implicating him, what do you think he would have done? What would have been solved?
I found that puzzling too.
This is what happens when one party has to prove they are innocent, rather than the other party proving the first party is guilty. Obviously the NFL failed miserably at that.
Payton isn't under the CBA. And the Saints players who fought Goodells punishment won.
Nothing public. Next public arguments/NFL beatdown is August 19th.
Edit: Friday the new papers are due ... so we may hear some stuff then. But nothing like yesterday.
apparently not.
https://twitter.com/josephax/status/631844216885219328
EDIT: Reuters article that tweet is referencing: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/13/us-nfl-brady-idUSKCN0QI1U620150813
a) How long does it take for the pressure (and internal air temperature) of a football to change to acclimate to OAT? Because that's where the "well they were just in a warm room" argument starts to fall under question. Taking balls that were pressurized at 70 degrees, putting them in 40 degree weather for 90 minutes, slowly deflating them as the football's internal air temperature matches OAT, and then commensurately pushes the pressure down..is it only going to take only 10 minutes in 70 degree weather to for IAT of the football to match OAT and re-pressurize the football back up?
b) Wells basically wanted Brady & co to print out all texts related to specific search terms (which Brady and his counsel had agreed to and had done so for the non destroyed cell phones). The deadspin article covers that in detail.
It took Tagliabue to overrule Goodell; and even then, most of the players were pretty irrevocably harmed by Goodell's Harvey Dent impression (hard to find teams, retired, etc). Point being; Goodell making shit up as he goes because he "feels like it" is pretty par for the course. Part of the reason Kessler wants to nail Goodell so hard on this one.
From Sports Law Twitter (@PPVSRB among others) - it seems that yesterday has motivated both camps to start talking negotiations. The judge was skeptical of the NFLs belief that it was a "conspiracy" and pointed out the NFL lacked direct evidence tying Brady to the deflation.
However, the judge didn't challenge the NFL on the argument that Goodell has the authority to lay down this punishment via CBA, and deliberately noted that Brady almost certainly knew he was throwing deflated balls. So Brady is being told that the judge is calling bullshit on his "the balls weren't deflated / I didn't know" argument.
ESPN reporting that the judge has said Goodell and Brady won't need to be at next week's hearing (if there is one).
This is looking like exactly what Florio had said would happen. The judge made it clear to whatever side he thinks is in the wrong that they are going to lose, and they better start negotiating or he'll hammer them.
This is looking like exactly what Florio had said would happen. The judge made it clear to whatever side he thinks is in the wrong that they are going to lose, and they better start negotiating or he'll hammer them.
10 to 15 minutes to normalize.
Yeah, they asked them to include what they felt was relevant. You didn't answer my question.
The Exponent analysis determined it takes 10-15 minutes for the footballs to return to their original pressure.
EDIT: Beaten!
The outcome of the settlement may give us hints on who the judge pressured. i.e. If the settlement is a fine, no admission of guilt and no suspension then we can reasonable state that the judge told the NFL they would lose.
Every time that Goodell punishes someone other than how the rules specifically spell things out, the player has fought and won.
What is being missed here is that while true about article 46 that Goodell has the power to lay down punishment, it is only if a punishment is warranted. The judge does have the power to say that based on evidence it should never have gotten to that point of arbitration.
That is why his closing statement was so powerful. It probably stemmed from the arrogance of the NFL lawyers pretty much telling the judge in his court that he could do nothing and Goodell is all powerful.
Edit: Also the last thing the judge wants is for an innocent person to "Settle" just to get a situation over with.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
They handed over their phones and text messages,it's in the Well's report.
Then why do they even need Brady's phone?
Naked pictures of his wife ..... duh!
They did. The truth is they have all the texts and Brady gave them a complete listing of every call and text he's made. If there were more texts to the ball boys on that list than the NFL already had, we'd have heard about it. What's really telling about how shaky the leagues case is, is that they attempted to make this about Brady destroying a phone they said they didn't want and that the NFLPA said they'd never be given.
Ah ok.
As for the texts; http://deadspin.com/the-full-story-of-tom-bradys-destroyed-cell-phone-1722190784
He a) trusted Yee, who is also a lawyer and would potentially face disbarrment for lying during an investigation and b) the email search gives an idea what they'd look for in texts.
Thank the lord for that. Good news for Brady, Goodell is 0-4. Bad news for Brady, the NYC courts rule in favor or pre-existing arbritration agreements 76% of the time (or higher).
Regarding the evidence - the judge said point blank that "Brady almost certainly knew he was throwing deflated balls", and he did not talk about Goodell overstepping his authority (as arbitrary and capricious as Goodell is being) under the CBA - which is the far more important part for Brady.
I'll re-iterate my prediction; Brady gets suspended two games for refusal to cooperate with the Wells investigation / destroying evidence; Brady admits no guilt as to instructing JJ and McNally to deflate, everyone goes back to believing what they already do.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Free Tom.
This is a private investigation and not a criminal investigation, could Wells or Yee face disbarrment for lying?
This is scary scenarios for players, being suspended for not cooperating, specifically not providing the NFL with your private phone data.
So just to be clear, the legal team you suspect potentially allowed or instructed Brady to destroy evidence that he was guilty is the team that would willingly hand over texts if they contained explicit evidence Brady was guilty?
He did not, it was implied based on the questioning. Judge Berman was visibly agitated by the statement's dealing with Goodell's "power." Numerous Lawyers have stated this opinion (of course it is opinion).
He also said ....
The judge believes Brady is innocent based on the evidence. If he is innocent, there should be no punishment.
Brady is not going to take any games. That is laughable. So Brett Farve did not give up his phone and was fined 50,000. Brady does not give up his phone and is fined 1.3 million (game checks) along with not playing?
Brady is most likely going to win, so why would he take anything more than a fine? I love how people just toss around someone who believes they are innocent should "accept" some outlandish punishment.
teruterubozu
Member
Isn't this an all-or-nothing case at this point? Only if they arbitrate can they agree to reduce the suspension to 2 games.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It's pretty clear the judge will clear Brady, they have zero evidence.
Looks that way. Judge clearly said this is only about one game and that he sees no evidence of Brady doing anything. The NFL even admits to the judge that it has no proof.
A lot of us have been saying this since day one (or at least since the bullshit ESPN was peddling was proven to be false). Can't wait to see how ESPN (and that ass Mark Brunell) try to spin this if true.
"Activist judge"
"Kraft money"
No wait, that's how fans of other teams will spin it.
1) I believe so - its a general code of ethics as much as anything else
2) Yep. Welcome to the insanity that is being a modern pro athlete (friend from HS is a fairly well known NBA player. Whenever he comes home / we meet up with him, the level of control of which his league has over him is unbelievable.) I'm generally with Steph Stradley on this one on a holistic "this is so screwed up" level. This is an amazing segue into...
Remember, up until that moment, Wells trusted Yee and Brady, and has said so repeatedly. It was the destruction of the phone that made Wells no longer believe Brady as a credible witness. So it makes sense that at the time of the request; Wells trusted Yee and Brady to be upfront.
The reason(s) Yee probably told / advised Brady (assuming Yee actually did) to nuke the phone is
a) Yee was being a stubborn idiot (even Kessler has gently said that Yee's advice was a giant mistake)
b) Would end up setting precedent in future NFL investigations (which it did as Brady ended up letting them look at other phones anyway, so GJ guys). A better answer would have been to refuse them access to the phone but not freaking destroy it the day of questioning, then say "oh that was just coincidence", and then have to admit that it was not just coincidence in court.
c) Privacy issues
d) potentially damning info
The NFL lawyers were hilariously arrogant when coming in; even making a comment that the judge has no real power.
The judge believes Brady would be innocent in a court of law; hence his comment about "finding". The problem for Brady is that the NFL never said Brady was directly telling his subordinates to deflate the balls. They said he was "generally aware"; which has a much lower standard of proof - one that the judge appears to agree with.
The judge assigned is specifically noted for his ability to get deals done, even in scenarios that they don't normally happen. The courts had a plan. This judge has openly stated (as much as a judge can) that he's going to make them come up with a damn compromise.
<sigh> Y'all are gonna be disappointed, methinks.
Prediction: Brady suspended for 1-2 games for refusal to cooperate, no guilt is admitted, sides go back to licking their wounds, and this leads to a lockout during the next CBA negotiations. Deal happens the evening of 8/18 into the morning of 8/19; or it happens that following night / morning. If they go into the next hearing without a deal; we will find out very quickly which side is unwilling to budge while in negotiation talks, as Berman will probably destroy them during that hearing (since Berman is present during all negotiation talks). Also; the next hearing is open to the public. /popcorn.
What should happen: Brady fined, no suspension; and Patriots no longer have the ability to prepare footballs for the next five years. All of their footballs for home and away games are instead prepared by a third party organization. Which should then probably become the standard; considering all sorts of QBs are popping up and saying they screw with the footballs.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
no, they are just going to check the air pressure now
Someone explain to me why they just don't rescind the rule allowing teams to prepare their own footballs? Obviously the teams can't be trusted to follow that rule in any meaningful way; just give everyone new footballs the day of. Done. If the kickers can deal with it, so can everyone else.
Which is normal in other sports.
Baseball presumably doesn't let players anywhere near the non-live balls, right?
Right, in MLB the Umpire brings the balls and holds the non-live balls.
teruterubozu
Member
But Brady and his lawyers are specifically fighting the "refusal to cooperate" part - why would they accept that? Plus Goodell's "negotiation" to Brady was to accept the entire Wells report - yeah that ain't happening. Berman might be a superstar, but he's got his work cut out for him. No way either side is backing down.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
because back in the day home team supplied the balls, and shockingly they would fuck with the other teams balls.
QB's have always wanted to prep their balls in the ways they like it. It's why the Bucs QB payed some dude to scuff up the superbowl balls back in SB 37.
Those new balls are fucking rock solid and have little grip, no QB wants to use a fresh game-ball, they are human made and all have little things wrong or right with them.
Brady and Manning cried about this like 10 years ago.
It was really stupid of the NFL to listen to them in the first place.
The NFL went along for it with the idea that it would lead to increased scoring which would lead to better ratings which is all they care about.
Dreams-Visions
Member
Pretty sure they can't just "rescind" a rule that players and the NFL/NFLPA agreed to. It would probably require some sort of vote or legal proceeding.
Brady and Manning were the face of all QBs. Everyone wanted it. Getting the biggest names in the sport to put it forward is why it worked.
This is the judge the NFL wanted.
Well, it's the state they wanted. It's definitely not the judge they wanted.
Yeah it was funny because the NFL wanted NY and the NFLPA wanted Minnesota but the NY judge selected was considered better for the NFLPA and the Minnesota judge selected was thought to be better for the NFLPA. But since the NFL filed first then it went to NY.
I believe that any non-partial judge would handle this case the same way. It's clear that Goodell overreached on the punishment.
The rule change made sense though. At the time the footballs for both the home team and away team were prepared and supplied by the home team, which put the away team QB at a disadvantage. The rule change allowed the away team to now bring their own prepared footballs.
Having said that, if the league values the integrity so much, then the league should be responsible for controlling the footballs after they have been vetted by the referees. The fact that the home team ball-boys would handle the footballs after the referees have vetted them is ripe for potential abuse.
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