CNN poll : Donald Trump now competitive in general election

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marrec

Banned
I don't blame you for thinking that way, and for all I know you may be right. But I can't ignore the absolute hatred being cast by the extreme left and extreme right against each other the last 8 years during a serious recession, and think that ideological hatred may have played an equal or greater role than where racism.

It's important to note that the birther movement was started by wing-nut conspiracy theorists as a way to show that a vast jewish one world government conspiracy was putting Obama into the Presidency.

From there it spread to known racists circles and was quickly adopted by actual white supremacists because the best way to discredit a black president was to claim that he was secretly a muslim from Kenya. There isn't any deeper meaning to the birther movement than that. People supporting it were either blindingly ignorant, or willfully racist.
 

Blader

Member
I don't blame you for thinking that way, and for all I know you may be right. But I can't ignore the absolute hatred being cast by the extreme left and extreme right against each other the last 8 years during a serious recession, and think that ideological hatred may have played an equal or greater role than where racism.

How are you drawing a link from ideological hatred to "the black president must have been born in another country"? One doesn't explain the other; racism does.

If it was pure hatred for Obama or "leftist" ideology, it'd be aimed at his policies, his rhetoric, his failures. Nothing about ideology has anything to do with accusations over his place of birth, a question that never came up for any other president.
 

marrec

Banned
How are you drawing a link from ideological hatred to "the black president must have been born in another country"? One doesn't explain the other; racism does.

If it was pure hatred for Obama or "leftist" ideology, it'd be aimed at his policies, his rhetoric, his failures. Nothing about ideology has anything to do with accusations over his place of birth, a question that never came up for any other president.

And one that also came up before he was even president, mind.
 

rhino4evr

Member
Overheard some co workers talk about how they thought Trump was "brilliant" ...I'm officially starting to get scared for America
 
I will be joining you guy's. Fuck it. We need somebody like Trump. I don't agree with some things he says, but stuff needs to get done in this country. If he sucks, then he will be gone in four years. And now I await for Liberal GAF to attack!! Go!Go!Go!!!!

You know that there are other branches of government, correct? Specifically, the legislative branch that is supposed to generate the laws for the POTUS to execute?

I could be wrong in this individual case, but I always feel like people in general who say "stuff needs to get done" in reference to the position of POTUS always missed civics class. How will President Trump get anything done with a legislature that hates him? See Jesse Ventura as Governor of Minnesota for one example of how this is true.

Anyway, it's a single poll way out. Trump won't win. Too many non-white people in this country for that to happen, and the GOP leaders are going to sabotage him anyway because he can't be controlled.
 
I will be joining you guy's. Fuck it. We need somebody like Trump. I don't agree with some things he says, but stuff needs to get done in this country. If he sucks, then he will be gone in four years. And now I await for Liberal GAF to attack!! Go!Go!Go!!!!
So desperate for attention
 

Touchdown

Banned
End days are upon us

4c4c894eca.gif
 

Blader

Member
The "I don't agree with what he says, but shit needs to get done in this country" position is really bizarre to me. Why would you want things you don't like or agree with to become policy?
 

Polari

Member
I continue to be flabbergasted that people get so swept up in polling at this stage. I mean, I won't pretend to be Nostradamus and as such I won't completely write off anything. But I'd be shocked if Trump is still in contention by the time the Iowa primaries roll around, and if he wins the nomination, I'll eat my hat*. Polling at this stage of the game is so inconsequential that I can't believe that anyone puts any stock into it at all. I'm not going to go back several elections and do any actual research right now, but in the last election, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich were all frontrunners at one point or another. Then time pressed on and they proved to be non-starters, and you wind up with Romney winning the nod.

I don't think previous elections can be seen as indicative of this one. Trump is a phenomenon that stands alone. I still find it hard to believe he'll win the nom, but having seen enough of him now it wouldn't surprise me either.
 
Walker is incapable and I'm tired of the Bush family. What's left in in the republican party that can challenge Trump?
That's the thing....they've got 17 candidates and the all look like losers due to one flaw or another. I can't figure out who will win because none of them look good. I think they would be better off by running Romney again.



But as someone said a few weeks back, Trump is sure "shaking shit up".
 

Dude Abides

Banned
The "I don't agree with what he says, but shit needs to get done in this country" position is really bizarre to me. Why would you want things you don't like or agree with to become policy?

Say what you will about Stalin, the man got shit done.
 

spock

Member
I've said this before...going to say it again...Trump is the black swan...all the data, etc, is going to fail because of chaos and uncertainty due to the variable of the Trump card. The guy is gobbling up mind-share and perception. The funny thing how so many hear beef about his lack of details, all he does is reiterate general ideas, proposed results, etc. Regardless if they are highly unlikely. All of it is intentional, and geared toward communicating with people on an 8th-12th grade level...(a.k.a the masses)

What hes saying, how hes saying it and the repetition via ignoring the call for details is creating imagery in the minds of many. Hes a painting a picture in peoples heads and the truth of it is not going to matter as much as their perception and belief. You combine that with his own genuine belief in the fundamental ideas hes presenting, the whole honesty and straight shooter bit. Him also being a billionaire in business adding validity to his ability to "get shit done".

Throw in some people pissed of at the status quo, add a lack of worthy competition, etc. and you have a perfect storm for a black swan. Trump is rocking it fucking P.T. Barnum style and is going to take it all. You guys think that because there is a lot of time left its going to work against him? Pfft...exact opposite. It's going to work for him. It's just more time to build penetrate and deploy...

As others said hes also appealing to things lots of Americans care about, all Americans of all races and minorities that are legal. Watch out for them closet Trump supporters, self preservation and expansion even if its just an idea or possibility has some strong gravitational pull.
 

Paskil

Member
That's the thing....they've got 17 candidates and the all look like losers due to one flaw or another. I can't figure out who will win because none of them look good. I think they would be better off by running Romney again.



But as someone said a few weeks back, Trump is sure "shaking shit up".

We've already lost this one.
 

spock

Member
The piece from Time is a must read if your part of this thread and want to see why Trump is winning it all...While every other politician says and does xyz like a bunch of damn robots this dude is embracing his unique,crazy ass self and doing the opposite of everyone else... There is a ton of juice coming from that. Going against the herd is whats going to seal the deal. Whats even more hilarious is if anyone tries to do the same there going to look like imitators.

http://time.com/trump/

Very much worth read and insight...

Edit: Him using that song from Karate kid was brilliant. Holy smokes the dude knows exactly what buttons to push.
 

params7

Banned
Why do magazines always obscure their own titles? How am I supposed to know what the magazine's called? Where's the respect for their own branding.

Pretty sure they designed that as a way to signal Trump's showstealing persona.
 

Blader

Member
I've said this before...going to say it again...Trump is the black swan...all the data, etc, is going to fail because of chaos and uncertainty due to the variable of the Trump card. The guy is gobbling up mind-share and perception. The funny thing how so many hear beef about his lack of details, all he does is reiterate general ideas, proposed results, etc. Regardless if they are highly unlikely. All of it is intentional, and geared toward communicating with people on an 8th-12th grade level...(a.k.a the masses)

What hes saying, how hes saying it and the repetition via ignoring the call for details is creating imagery in the minds of many. Hes a painting a picture in peoples heads and the truth of it is not going to matter as much as their perception and belief. You combine that with his own genuine belief in the fundamental ideas hes presenting, the whole honesty and straight shooter bit. Him also being a billionaire in business adding validity to his ability to "get shit done".

Throw in some people pissed of at the status quo, add a lack of worthy competition, etc. and you have a perfect storm for a black swan. Trump is rocking it fucking P.T. Barnum style and is going to take it all. You guys think that because there is a lot of time left its going to work against him? Pfft...exact opposite. It's going to work for him. It's just more time to build penetrate and deploy...

As others said hes also appealing to things lots of Americans care about, all Americans of all races and minorities that are legal. Watch out for them closet Trump supporters, self preservation and expansion even if its just an idea or possibility has some strong gravitational pull.

How's the black swan polling among Dems and independents?
 

spock

Member
How's the black swan polling among Dems and independents?

2 things...

The time left is going to help answer that...

Anecdotally, on these forums, you have me and I've seen 2 other posters who have always voted democrat who currently support Trump (and Sanders). Obviously the sample size means nothing, however it does show you can and do have people who are dem/ind who could swing and support Trump. To add to that I'm in New Hampshire and hes gaining ground here with people who are dem/indy. My point is, that he can can get people to switch.

In the Time article he mentions how he will keep social security, medicare, etc as sacrosanct. Where as many other politicians are looking to cut from that pool. That's going to have some heavy appeal to older people those poor and not so poor.

His focus on subconsciously appealing to the self preservation of the individual and country (in his vague and general way) will help his appeal grow, especially as a he dominates the media. He also knows how to keep him self in the media pretty well.

Another interesting bit from the Time article was him saying he might tell CNN they have to donate 10 million dollars to the charities of tier choice for him to appear...LOL, fucking genius. He also gives reasons why they should pay, etc. Straight up salesmanship and copywriting 101. (grabbing attention,justify claims, etc...basic reason why advertising). Even if others use similar methods hes just that much better and bolder in application.

Everyone else is trying to avoid egg shells while Trump is throwing eggs trying to crack them...

Side note: Time said this about Hillary..."Clinton has become a master of boldly committing to policies that poll well for her coalition while attempting to dodge any pressing question that might complicate her coronation"

So much agenda...it's going to work against her because of the Donald.
 
How's the black swan polling among Dems and independents?

The Time article linked above sums up well the sentiment among people who are voting for Trump. I'll quote the relevant part here.

You don’t need a focus group to ­translate those sound bites: To support Trump in August 2015 is to oppose the established order, and not because of ideology but because you have just had enough—of the squabbling politicians, the dynastic political clans, the system of distinguished people who promise but can’t deliver. It is to say aloud to the pollster on the phone that you are ready to trade in the phoniness of the political process for an accomplished huckster who never backs down. “It’s a belief that the country is fundamentally broken and nobody is fixing it,” explains Republican pollster Frank Luntz. “It’s a sense that all the elites are in it for themselves and everybody else is suffering.” It is also a reminder that performance matters. On the two dimensions of your television screen, in the 20-­second sound bite of an often bankrupt process, what H.L. Mencken termed “a carnival of buncombe,” a true showman can beat out rank even on his worst days.

That's what this is about for me. I said it earlier in the thread. This isn't about policy for me, it's about the system. To be clear, I don't think that Trump is the one to fix the system (See Lawrence Lessig for an example of someone who I think might be). Voting for Trump is simply a snub at established politics, a way to make my voice heard about my resentment of the two-party system, of the lobbying, of the money, of the Super PACs, and of the special interests. It's about telling Washington to wake the fuck up and start representing the people again, as opposed to the corporate interests.

That's all it is. And black, white, and latino, male and female, old and young, conservative and democrat can get behind that cause.

I mean look, suppose he gets elected. Do you honestly think he'll be able to pass a law to deport all the illegals? No chance. Do you honestly think he'll be able to repeal the 14th Amendment? No chance. That's not what this is about. It's about people who are fed up with the bureaucracy, the ever-growing mountain of laws, the partisan bickering, the gerrymandering, the vitriol spewed back and forth across party lines.

It's the same platform that Obama campaigned for 8 years ago with his "Yes We Can" slogan, except it's the opposite now. A vote for Trump is a vote from people who feel like "No We Can't" and like we have no other options to make our voice heard except to vote for someone who is not part of the establishment.
 
2 things...

The time left is going to help answer that...

Anecdotally, on these forums, you have me and I've seen 2 other posters who have always voted democrat who currently support Trump (and Sanders). Obviously the sample size means nothing, however it does show you can and do have people who are dem/ind who could swing and support Trump. To add to that I'm in New Hampshire and hes gaining ground here with people who are dem/indy. My point is, that he can can get people to switch.

In the Time article he mentions how he will keep social security, medicare, etc as sacrosanct. Where as many other politicians are looking to cut from that pool. That's going to have some heavy appeal to older people those poor and not so poor.

His focus on subconsciously appealing to the self preservation of the individual and country (in his vague and general way) will help his appeal grow, especially as a he dominates the media. He also knows how to keep him self in the media pretty well.

Another interesting bit from the Time article was him saying he might tell CNN they have to donate 10 million dollars to the charities of tier choice for him to appear...LOL, fucking genius. He also gives reasons why they should pay, etc. Straight up salesmanship and copywriting 101. (grabbing attention,justify claims, etc...basic reason why advertising). Even if others use similar methods hes just that much better and bolder in application.

Everyone else is trying to avoid egg shells while Trump is throwing eggs trying to crack them...

Side note: Time said this about Hillary..."Clinton has become a master of boldly committing to policies that poll well for her coalition while attempting to dodge any pressing question that might complicate her coronation"

So much agenda...it's going to work against her because of the Donald.

Hispanics are the single most important voting bloc and will be so for the next 50 years. His choice to blast them is a total disaster. Fact is, you and that other guy are single issue voters and your single issue seems to be you're angry.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Or hispanics or women.

I've always said that if Hillary's the nominee, women are going to be the story of 2016.

CNN's latest poll shows Hillary with a 23% lead over Trump among women (for reference, Obama won female voters by 12% over Romney). I'm skeptical that the gap is that dramatic, but if anything like that holds, I don't know how she loses. The gap among male voters is nowhere near that level (11%).
 
"Trump is appealing to all Americans":

Hispanics represent one group where Trump's image, perhaps understandably, has soured since his negative comments about Mexican illegal immigrants. Trump's unfavorable ratings among Hispanics rose sharply from 60 percent in May to 81 percent now. His favorable ratings are 13 percent among Hispanics, little changed from the previous survey.

Hispanics obviously viewed Trump's comments as racial hatred, but we need post-racial Americans (tm) in here to explain why they're wrong:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/15/trumps-popularity-spikes-among-republicans/
 

Blader

Member
2 things...

The time left is going to help answer that...

The Time article linked above sums up well the sentiment among people who are voting for Trump. I'll quote the relevant part here.

I understand the sentiments here, but neither of these lengthy posts actually answered my question: how is Trump polling among Democrats and independents right now? Not how you feel about Trump or why you would vote for him.

There's a lot being made about Trump's popularity in the GOP field and like I said earlier he's definitely performing than anyone (except him lol) ever expected. But he's really only polling strongly among Republicans. Republicans don't single-handedly decide elections, and I've yet to see any statistically significant evidence (i.e. not anecdotes) that he's poised to win some major Reagan-esque swing from the left or center.
 
I understand the sentiments here, but neither of these lengthy posts actually answered my question: how is Trump polling among Democrats and independents right now? Not how you feel about Trump or why you would vote for him.

There's a lot being made about Trump's popularity in the GOP field and like I said earlier he's definitely performing than anyone (except him lol) ever expected. But he's really only polling strongly among Republicans. Republicans don't single-handedly decide elections, and I've yet to see any statistically significant evidence (i.e. not anecdotes) that he's poised to win some major Reagan-esque swing from the left or center.

TBH I don't think it matters how Trump is polling among anyone right now. The fact that he's polling significantly higher than any of his other Republican competitors doesn't even mean anything. So if we accept the premise that poll numbers this early in the election cycle are meaningless, then we should discount both the places where he's polling strong as well as the places where he's polling weak.

that said, I don't even know if I've seen a poll as targeted as what you're suggesting.
 

GavinGT

Banned
How do you guys see Hillary vs. Trump debates going? I really wish Obama were running, because I bet he would do a great job putting Trump in his place.
 

OctoMan

Banned
How do you guys see Hillary vs. Trump debates going? I really wish Obama were running, because I bet he would do a great job putting Trump in his place.
I think trump destroys anyone in a debate not named Biden. It's the nature of his beast, even if none of it is substance.
 
2 things...

The time left is going to help answer that...

...

Again, you do not insult Hispanics and women and survive in the general. Black swan, or no black swan.

Especially running against a woman. Hillary can lose everything else, but so long as she has women galvanized on her side with Hispanics, she will win. She might not even need the black vote but let's be honest, black voters will not be voting GOP anytime soon.
 
How do you guys see Hillary vs. Donald "Somebody's doing the raping" Trump debates going? I really wish Obama were running, because I bet he would do a great job putting Donald "Somebody's doing the raping" Trump in his place.

Well Trump is going to have to study hard on foreign policy but Hillary will already know all that stuff. And during that studying, Trump is going to learn he's said some dumbass things. So he's going to have to flip-flop or he's going to have to stick with dumbass and hope he can sell it.
 

GavinGT

Banned
Well Trump is going to have to study hard on foreign policy but Hillary will already know all that stuff. And during that studying, Trump is going to learn he's said some dumbass things. So he's going to have to flip-flop or he's going to have to stick with dumbass and hope he can sell it.

But is Joe American even going to know that he's talking nonsense?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Hillary would destroy Trump in a Foreign Policy debate. It would make Obama look good in that 1st debate between him and Romney.
 

spock

Member
Regarding current polling, as already said in truth the numbers dont matter much but what does matter is the mind share and perception that is being developed over time. This is what will work over the long haul. Continue the marketing and PR, hit the right points, use the right language, tone, etc. What is showing is that Trump is building a base, however while of some the base is being built on standard republican values, etc. key parts of it are not. They are being built on ideals related to a broken system, self preservation, growth of a nation, change, etc. This play, done right will/is having a broader appeal.

As for Hispanics, women, etc. While I don't think hes going to be the champion of their cause, I bet he gets growing support from them over time. Obviously these are just assumptions and guesses, but looking at it from a marketing/PR perspective I see Trump having certain phases in his campaign where he will go out of his way (to a degree) to clarify his views and tailor his message to those audiences.

For example, really drilling it home and possibly having some specific programs, etc where he can demonstrate how Hispanics (or whoever the target audience is) is part of his plan and when he says "Americans, he means them!" Obviously thats not going to sell everyone of that demographic but it will appeal to some. He'll start addressing those here legally with pride, playing on the hurdles they have overcome and "the hard work and dues they have paid" and why its unfair to them...etc

It's all in the framing and perception. Again many think its an all or nothing game when its been VERY clear that with Trump is the "Art of the deal"...and everything is a deal, a transaction, etc. It's pretty much in Trumps proverbial DNA. In campaigning, policy, life, etc...the man is flexible and always ready to pivot as needed to get the best deal in that moment. That doesn't mean he will always succeed but his track record at that is pretty good.
 
I don't think previous elections can be seen as indicative of this one. Trump is a phenomenon that stands alone. I still find it hard to believe he'll win the nom, but having seen enough of him now it wouldn't surprise me either.

Time will tell. I'm not even a little convinced that this current so-called Trumpmentum has even a tiny chance of continuing long enough to matter once the actual primary season starts. I understand that Trump has a message that resonates with some that are disenfranchised with the system, but -- even though it didn't hurt him much at the time -- I feel like a guy capable of effortlessly making gaffes shitting on prisoners of war is destined to implode long before anyone can cast a vote for him in a primary. My stance has been and will continue to be that this is all just a sideshow and Trump isn't really a contender.

Having said that, I welcome with open arms the possibility of being proven wrong. As someone who cares even a little about politics, I think a Trump presidency would be an unprecedented disaster. But also being someone who does enjoy the theater of presidential campaign politics, I'm perfectly ok with Trump being a viable contender in the race.

As such, I promise that I'm not one of those people lamenting my fellow Americans at his polling numbers. Honestly, though I do have an interest in the outcome, I've never really been a fan of berating people for how they vote. Do I encourage people to be informed and to vote on the issues? Yes. But I ultimately respect that people are free to vote how they want. If someone wants to vote based on criteria that I might deem inane like "who would I most want to have a beer with?", that's their right as an American.
 
Regarding current polling, as already said in truth the numbers dont matter much but what does matter is the mind share and perception that is being developed over time. This is what will work over the long haul. Continue the marketing and PR, hit the right points, use the right language, tone, etc. What is showing is that Trump is building a base, however while of some the base is being built on standard republican values, etc. key parts of it are not. They are being built on ideals related to a broken system, self preservation, growth of a nation, change, etc. This play, done right will/is having a broader appeal.

As for Hispanics, women, etc. While I don't think hes going to be the champion of their cause, I bet he gets growing support from them over time. Obviously these are just assumptions and guesses, but looking at it from a marketing/PR perspective I see Trump having certain phases in his campaign where he will go out of his way (to a degree) to clarify his views and tailor his message to those audiences.

For example, really drilling it home and possibly having some specific programs, etc where he can demonstrate how Hispanics (or whoever the target audience is) is part of his plan and when he says "Americans, he means them!" Obviously thats not going to sell everyone of that demographic but it will appeal to some. He'll start addressing those here legally with pride, playing on the hurdles they have overcome and "the hard work and dues they have paid" and why its unfair to them...etc

It's all in the framing and perception. Again many think its an all or nothing game when its been VERY clear that with Trump is the "Art of the deal"...and everything is a deal, a transaction, etc. It's pretty much in Trumps proverbial DNA. In campaigning, policy, life, etc...the man is flexible and always ready to pivot as needed to get the best deal in that moment. That doesn't mean he will always succeed but his track record at that is pretty good.

This is glorification of a candidate I haven't seen in a long time. It's almost supernatural..."he can do anything guys! he can turn water to wine. his face shines in the stars at night!"

The guy is just a candidate who will be another part of the system and likely won't be able to do A LOT of what he's promising simply due to checks and balances. Chill out.
 
I don't understand how so many people view an asshole as "refreshing".

I would like to see a poll of Trump supporters and how comfortable they are with giving him power if they could. There's a dictatorial vibe that is pretty scary. I wouldn't be surprised if they are cool with him amending the constitution on his own or bypassing congress or even courts.

Best comparison I could think of is Putin right now.
 
I don't understand how so many people view an asshole as "refreshing".

I think such a view is misguided, but I understand it. If you're the type of person that the Politically Correct Police are out there ready to condemn everything everyone says that isn't appropriately progressive, a candidate like Trump who is out there seemingly giving no fucks about how he's perceived can be considered refreshing. My disagreement though would be two-fold. One, I don't believe that the political correctness has really run amok. My position is that if it might seem that people are too eager to express "outrage" at anything, it seems that there are people even more eager to express outrage at that outrage. Two, I still think that even if one prides him or herself on being a real straight shooter who pulls no punches, you still need to back up this talk with substance. And I'm not even remotely convinced that Trump has any substance to him.

It's all just a bunch of talk about how the system stinks and someone needs to fix it. Maybe that is true. But I don't really know why I'd believe that Trump is capable of doing that just because he has less of a filter than other candidates.
 
Ive been saying this from the start. When he wins, not if, I'll come here for the salt, but stay for the delicious tears.

For the record, even though I promised to eat a fake hat if Trump won the nomination, I still welcome that outcome. I promise you, though I will be shocked, there won't be a single tear on my cheek. More just bewildered amusement.
 

nukedawg

Banned
For the record, even though I promised to eat a fake hat if Trump won the nomination, I still welcome that outcome. I promise you, though I will be shocked, there won't be a single tear on my cheek. More just bewildered amusement.
In all seriousness, I know there's no way he'll be able to pull off any of what he's saying were he to win. His policies will be blocked or cut to ribbons.
 
I would like to see a poll of Trump supporters and how comfortable they are with giving him power if they could. There's a dictatorial vibe that is pretty scary. I wouldn't be surprised if they are cool with him amending the constitution on his own or bypassing congress or even courts.

Best comparison I could think of is Putin right now.
As a Trump supporter, I would be willing to give any elected candidate ultimate power.

A big part of what I see as the problem is that there's too many laws. If you think about it, literally all politicians doo all day is sit around making new laws. That's the whole point of their job. Republicans make laws, Democrats make laws, everyone keeps making laws. Sometimes the laws even contradict each other. So more and more laws keep getting made, creating a mountainous pile of red tape and legal hurdles to jump through to get anything done. As soon as you propose something, 800 different special interest groups start talking about how it violates some law.

Instead of Congress, I would replace the entire system of checks and balances with something much more simple.

1) The President can pass any policy he wants, except policy concerning the length of his term or the election process.
2) Laws can be overturned by a subsequent president, but will also expire naturally after a period of 8 years.

For starters, this would probably quadruple voter turnout.

Secondly, what works and what doesn't would become completely obvious in a very short amount of time. Currently we have this situation where there is so much red tape to cut through to implement some policy that you never know if changes in economic indicators are due to the current administration, the previous administration, or maybe even the one before that.

Third, You've still got checks and balances here, but they are after-the-fact checks and balances. Anything that's bad would just be instantly killed as soon as the next administration came to office.

And fourth, it would force them to focus on what's really important as the laws would expire after 8 years, and they would have to focus on keeping the really important ones active.
 
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