LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Ok, I see Ouro. I see what he is saying. However, I am not convinced on batsnacks or of Kark's innocence just on that.
I wonder...
I wonder...
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[Mafia] NX Launch Night |OT| Back of the Line!
- Thread starter CzarTim
- Start date
And I'm not convinced of the reverse either, it's just the way I'm leaning now. Cogent arguments could certainly convince me otherwise.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
What I've said is the best I got. I'd defer to someone else if you want some thing different.
About this: if we were to lynch Kark, and he flips town, I am more inclined to think Batsnacks is the scum than Launch. I think a Mafia member will not be the one to create a bandwagon and be so incredibly open about attacking Kark. I find Batsnacks slipping in the role of Launch his "wingman" and supporting him from the background a lot more suspicious TBH. His defence that he behaves like a town so he must be town doesn't help. You know who also behaves like town? Mafia members.
Agreed completely.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
For me, I think I would still vote Kark, even if I'm not sure. What really stands out to me is how negatively he reacted to being under scrutiny.
In case there was some confusion about what I said about unflipped association reads: Usually I don't like to make them especially d1 because they rely on too many assumptions. I think reads are stronger when they rely on fewer assumptions. So, when e.g. Sorian says that one of me, Launch, and Kark is mafia because love triangle, that read is making assumptions about three people's alignment and if Sorian is wrong about just 1 of us then the read is wrong. It is hard to be right about 3 people's alignments this early.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm as convinced of Kark's scumminess as you are of batsnacks'.
I dunno, you just thought he had a town PR like an hour ago.
My issue is that if we wait on Kark, odds are we will be waiting for awhile. He did make an odd play asking to be lynched and I am more inclined to give him what he asked, attempt to lynch him, get whatever information that falls from this whole debacle and move on.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
That's the percentage of my doubt.
I'm not sure why you're arguing. We may not be on the same vote, but I think we're on the same side.
It's hard to be right about anything on D1. And for Sorian's read to be wrong, he'd have to be wrong 3 times. As of now, you snuck in to vote for what you perceived to be an easy target, and I think you're scum.
I'm not arguing, just thinking out loud, I guess.
I love you too mate :*
By this, you mean Sorian's use of the 'love triangle' means he thinks you are all the same alignment?
That's not what I got from that. It was just the fact the three of you have been involved in a lover's tiff (to keep the love theme going). He's stated multiple times that he thinks one of you is mafia, not all three.
I don't feel strongly about you, but this still feels confusing. The idea behind lynching 1 of 3 people who've been actively at each others' throats throughout the day is that we'd get good reads off the other 2 in retrospective. No one is assuming anything nor is Sorian claiming to know who's what in that triangle; by lynching one of you no "right or wrong" judgement can be determined on Sorian... yet
Yes, reads are stronger when they rely on fewer assumptions, which is why day 1 is about maximizing the amount of info we'll have during day 2 to refine our theories.
I think "snuck in on an easy vote" is a stretch, I was pretty vocal about Kark and pushed him as hard as anyone else.
GAF's being weird about letting me quote Launch's earlier posts, so here's just copy/pasted stuff:
Okay, I'll believe you - the important part is that we all do this. This is not simply a mandate on you.
I'd hope you'd give me a little more credit than that. There was zero reason to do something like this if I was mafia.
It's two things.
First is that the topic was the argument about being in favor of not lynching anyone today.
Obviously, this discussion has to be opened up today on the first day, and the sooner the better. With that said, I didn't realize the thread had opened, so I got here a little late.
Second is a matter of agenda-setting. People want to blame me for taking over the conversation, but the truth is that if I don't do it, someone else will. I gather that people may have already come into this game thinking I'd be fairly opinionated - and I certainly am, as I've already shown with this opinion on Day 1 lynching. So why even let someone try to color my opinion before I've spoken? I'd rather be in control of my own message.
It would probably take mafia involvement to get me majority voted today. Town players are too ambivalent in this environment.
It's possible that you're Town, I'll give you that. But what's unusual (and this is not necessarily an indictment) is that you (and perhaps batsnacks) are the only one playing this way. What irks me about it is that, the way I see it, Town doesn't necessarily want to kill the wrong person - but scum doesn't really give a shit - and these plays sound like not-giving-a-shit. Good faith moves like unvoting me are what start making me believe you aren't scum.
While you may not necessarily be the guy, you're not the only one involved, and I'm seeing a pretty good point made that we may have pulled something up in this net.
Also,
There are short and long term implications to what I'm doing. I wouldn't even begin to call it a backfire yet. We're just getting started.
Okay, I'll believe you - the important part is that we all do this. This is not simply a mandate on you.
I'd hope you'd give me a little more credit than that. There was zero reason to do something like this if I was mafia.
It's two things.
First is that the topic was the argument about being in favor of not lynching anyone today.
Obviously, this discussion has to be opened up today on the first day, and the sooner the better. With that said, I didn't realize the thread had opened, so I got here a little late.
Second is a matter of agenda-setting. People want to blame me for taking over the conversation, but the truth is that if I don't do it, someone else will. I gather that people may have already come into this game thinking I'd be fairly opinionated - and I certainly am, as I've already shown with this opinion on Day 1 lynching. So why even let someone try to color my opinion before I've spoken? I'd rather be in control of my own message.
It would probably take mafia involvement to get me majority voted today. Town players are too ambivalent in this environment.
It's possible that you're Town, I'll give you that. But what's unusual (and this is not necessarily an indictment) is that you (and perhaps batsnacks) are the only one playing this way. What irks me about it is that, the way I see it, Town doesn't necessarily want to kill the wrong person - but scum doesn't really give a shit - and these plays sound like not-giving-a-shit. Good faith moves like unvoting me are what start making me believe you aren't scum.
While you may not necessarily be the guy, you're not the only one involved, and I'm seeing a pretty good point made that we may have pulled something up in this net.
Also,
There are short and long term implications to what I'm doing. I wouldn't even begin to call it a backfire yet. We're just getting started.
So we've got batsnacks, supposedly a relatively experienced mafia player, pulling out "logic" like these posts. I don't like it.
I thought I was pretty obvious but yes, this is correct.
That being said (this is to batsnacks) at least I've narrowed my list of mafia hiding places down to 3 players instead of you who had it around 5 players because you "didn't remember them"
I think he was just copying batsnacks' style of pointing out inactives.
Ok yeah, I was beginning to doubt myself in what was going on here but then you say things like this.
I was referring to batsnacks with the second half of that post. My point was that batsnacks is trying to give me a hard time for posting a grouping and saying one is mafia, when he did the same thing earlier.
My main problem with the list was that he included roy who had posted a few hours prior, on the same page as him no less. I guess I just thought that was either a slip or he was intentionally choosing targets without any real ut claiming it was inactive/forgotten.
Oh whoops. Did you stealth edit or am I just blind
Alright, I dont' really know what you mean by things like this, but if you happen to be thinking that's scum talk, I really have to wonder why you'd think I'd be all Bond Villain Expositioning on Day 1
fixed because that typo was ugly.
I wasn't just pointing out inactives. This is a pretty broad generalization but... In my experience townies make more memorable posts than mafia so I think it's useful to keep track of people you don't remember posts from.
Eh, maybe later down the line. On Day 1, when we're all getting to grips with each other? Seems a bit early to demand memorable posts. A good deal of this day will be a wash.
Just blind, sorry
I promise I didn't stealth edit.The probability of you being scum is low. The probability is higher than it should be for a day 1 target though which is why I'm fine trying the lynch on you first and seeing what happens because if you do make it past today then I feel that it is going to be hard pushing suspicions on you again, which would be the bond villain portion of this plan if you were scum.
I get what you mean, but still, can you maybe elaborate on how "intentionally choosing a target without any real motive" works? If he was intentionally choosing targets, he'd have to have a reason for doing so, no? haha
I get what you mean, but still, can you maybe elaborate on how "intentionally choosing a target without any real motive" works? If he was intentionally choosing targets, he'd have to have a reason for doing so, no? haha
cabbeh should answer too because this question was for him but since scum know who is mafia and who is not, it is easy to make a list from random folks and say "look at all of them!" then put a vague reasoning on it like you don't remember them at all. I don't know if that is what happened here but it's easy to do.
I think it works on d1 as well as anything works on d1.
I probably wont make it through the night if I survive today
Wait, I made an unflipped association read? Where?
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
You've given me some stuff to think about, but I'd like to point out that the day 1 lynch is a foregone conclusion. You're about the only person arguing against it, so I'm kind of taking it for granted that we're going to lynch someone today.
I'd think the opposite actually, scum would probably leave you alone for a day or two only for the fact that you are providing a great diversion if you are town
IMO both of these posts fall into that category:
I know what you are going to say "but I didn't associate them like you did. You said that ones alignment was dependent on another." I didn't though. One of Kark, you, and Launch being scum doesn't mean that I'm basing one's alignment on another. I just see three players camped up in a similar situation and I think scum would have tried to hide in that situation especially when they thought more people were coming to camp. It's the same as how you think mafia would be hiding within the camp of inactives.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Kark, if you had to lynch someone today, who would you pick?
Don't choose yourself again pls
Don't choose yourself again pls
Agreed. Someone already said it earlier but if Kark's town there's a good chance mafia will be inclined to night-kill someone else rather than someone who's most likely an ordinary. I thought that was one of the reasons Kark's move was so anti-town?
That was what some people said, yes. I'm still inclined to believe that the scum won't just ignore Kark completely because he could be lying about his ordinary claim and they have no reason to see it as anything but a lie but this fascination people are having with him now is their real reason for why they'd want to keep him alive. It's like expecting mafia to kill Blarg. No scum is going to NK Blarg unless they have to because Blarg being Blarg just confuses town by the nature of how he is.
Makes sense to me. I don't think mafia would want to lynch Kark if he's town but maybe they would want to hide in the ruckus and feign contributing.
Do you want to give that longish post I made on Kark some words since no one else did?
Do you want to give that longish post I made on Kark some words since no one else did?
Link me to the post you mean and I'll give thoughts. I don't think I saw any longish posts from you on this page and it's not coming to mind so idk where to find it.
I'm still not sure. See below:
One reason I why I want a no-lynch today is to see what mafia does first.
Here's what happens on a typical Day 1.
People scramble for a vote, someone gets voted on. Mafia may or may not be in the vote, because the reasons for choosing the person may not have been too strong to begin with. Or worse yet, everybody bussed one person out, and it's still hard to discern the motives.
Anyhow, the role flips, everybody posts their reaction gifs.
At night, Mafia now has a decision to make, and they're going to make it based on who voted and who was killed. They will discuss it until they've found the candidate that looks the least likely to give them away.
Day 2 starts, and some other seemingly random Town person is dead. Hopefully, a Town PR caught some idea of why they died, but maybe not. The meaning of that Night 1 kill may really never come to light.
So here's what we do. We don't give them that foothold to begin with.
I get what you mean, but still, can you maybe elaborate on how "intentionally choosing a target without any real motive" works? If he was intentionally choosing targets, he'd have to have a reason for doing so, no? haha
Well yeah phrasing!
By without any real motive, I meant a very clear motive to everyone. Choosing people he wanted to choose is motive, and since roy's recent posting contradicts the reason he said, I assumed that he was being dishonest and choosing people that he wouldn't mind being lynched (non-scum)
Again, it's a stretch, which is why I'm not putting any real push behind this line of thought, but I brought it up because it was worth pointing out the contradiction.
Ah yes, I did read this and had nothing to say on the matter, mostly because you and I do see things a little bit differently here. Before each day is up, I myself, like to post reads with guesses at alignment but until that time, I just like to process information as it comes in. Because of that, I actually come off more as a Kark than a cabbeh in the examples you list near the end. I do spend a lot of time trying to tell people when I think they are wrong or right because this early on, it's all a group effort to lynch and everyone just yelling out their own reads doesn't contribute as much as trying to fix flaws in the logic of yourself or others. Once we have more days under our belt then those alignment reads become more and more necessary.
In regards to the first half of your post, you re-iterate what we've all been thinking. Kark made a bad play if he was ordinary town and a bad play if he was scum. It doesn't make sense. I agree with all of that but I can't provide an answer as to why he did it.
Day 1 lynch isn't anymore a foothold to mafia than it is to us. Any information they get from day 1 is also to the benefit of town. If we all just came in here, said nothing, voted day 1 no lynch and left and had mafia go first, their kill is still just random from the player pool they can kill. At least when we play like this they have to make their night 1 kill look random. It's probably not completely random and that's where we can hope to get more information. That being said, the direction of a day 2 vote is probably going to be guided more from what happened during day 1, not night 1.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I agree with Sorian, especially the bolded bit. The only thing that the night phase kill will tell us is something I already know, and some of you may already know. I rather not say what that is so as not to affect behavior.