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[hydrophilic attack]

Mods, can we please have the following thread title change:

(Arstechnica) "Analysis": Sony continues to widen its console sales lead over Microsoft

thxs

 

[Kaako]

?

Not really.

The claim is that even given the absurd premise, MS would take until 2024 to outsell the PS4.

This is a perfectly reasonable dumbass argument.

Fixed for accuracy.

How old is this fucking author? Seriously...

 

[PuppetMaster]

Only interesting thing here to me is that these charts look like they were made with matlib/pyplot

Only mention because it is considerably more effort than just wipping up a chart in Excel. I guess he though he was going to do some serious analysis.

I make charts with those packages at work so the minor design details stand out to me.

 

[YianGaruga]

?

Not really.

The claim is that even given the absurd premise, MS would take until 2024 to outsell the PS4.

This is a perfectly reasonable argument.

Another similarly absurd premise that he could have used in his article is that if both consoles stopped selling completely starting tomorrow, XBOX won't overtake PS4.

Still a reasonable argument?

 

[semiconscious]

With such a brilliant analytical method, why would the writer of that article stop so soon?

We can extrapolate further into the future, confident that the growth rate will remain stable for decades to come:

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in the Washington, DC area.

embarrassing...

 

[Palette Swap]

With such a brilliant analytical method, why would the writer of that article stop so soon?

We can extrapolate further into the future, confident that the growth rate will remain stable for decades to come:

Now all we need to do is extrapolate the current human population growth rate to know when there will be more consoles than people.

embarrassing...

Same guy who was writing not so long ago:

Still, we recommend a bit of caution before looking at those numbers and assuming that the PlayStation 4 will be a long-term, market-leading hit. A quick look at the history of console launch sales numbers shows little correlation between early sales numbers and longer-term success.

Gee, I wonder where that caution went.

 

[4Tran]

?

Not really.

The claim is that even given the absurd premise, MS would take until 2024 to outsell the PS4.

This is a perfectly reasonable argument.

There are good and bad ways of presenting that argument, and this is an extremely bad one. Extrapolation based on two data points is never valid even if you're going for hyperbole.

 

[Hoo-doo]

And this is coming from Arstechnica? Fuck, I thought these guys occasionally knew what the fuck they were doing.

 

[hawk2025]

What?

Lol, okay.

The argument is supposed to be that even if you implausibly believe that the Xbox will continue its current sales increases, it would still take way longer than the lifetime of the product for it to outsell PS4.

That's a perfectly coherent point even if you're incapable of understanding it.

I think some of you saw a graph where Xbox outsold PS4 and your brains switched off with rage.

No, it isn't, and I'm not about to explain babby's first Statistical Inference to you.

 

[twobear]

Another similarily absurd premise that he could have used in his article is that if both consoles stop selling completely starting tomorrow, XBOX won't overtake PS4.

Still a reasonable argument?

Yes. If both consoles stop selling tomorrow, then Xbox wont ever overtake PS4. It's a perfectly logical point, but not a very interesting one.

 

[Ricky_R]

Hahah man.

 

[Kaako]

embarrassing...

Hold up, is that the same Kyle dude from GAF? Hahaha cause that could make sense.

 

[Sjefen]

Lol clickbait graph, no one will take it seriously.

Spoiler

I HOPE

 

[onanie]

Tales from his arse.

 

[le.phat]

We won't even have watercoolers in 2024

 

[Freeman]

PS4 2:1 ratio is pretty consistent from the begging, given Sony history and what we know (possibility of MS jump starting next gen, PSVR impact on sales going forward,etc) its probably going to end the gen between 2:1 and 3:1 in favor of Sony.

Absolutely ridiculous that such rubbish is published on a professional website.

 

[Alo0oy]

Am I the only one here that loves this guy? His articles are insane, but they're pretty funny if you look at them like Onion articles.

 

[Shabad]

Since the other usual extrapolation images have already been posted:

Ok guys, we can close that one up I think. What a spin !

 

[Bastables]

Yes. If both consoles stop selling tomorrow, then Xbox wont ever overtake PS4. It's a perfectly logical point, but not a very interesting one.

No it's (like Kyle Orland writing) tendentious mental masturbation.

 

[shark sandwich]

By 2030, Xbox One will have sold FOUR TIMES as many as PS4.

By 2040, all semiconductor manufacturing capacity on Earth will be dedicated solely to manufacturing Xbox One.

By 2050, Earth will be covered by Xbox Ones to a depth of 6 feet.

 

[Nightbird]

Charts are funny

 

[YianGaruga]

Yes. If both consoles stop selling tomorrow, then Xbox wont ever overtake PS4. It's a perfectly logical point, but not a very interesting one.

About as interesting as the one he is presenting.

 

[DieH@rd]

By 2030, Xbox One will have sold FOUR TIMES as many as PS4.

By 2040, all semiconductor manufacturing capacity on Earth will be dedicated solely to manufacturing Xbox One.

By 2050, Earth will be covered by Xbox Ones to a depth of 6 feet.

By 2060, megastructure from Blame! that will eventually morph into Dyson sphere with inner wall at Earth's orbit and outer wall at Jupiter's orbit will start forming its early shape.

 

[krioto]

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in the Washington, DC area.

I think this is the most embarrassing part of all - although, I see he has not listed his Statistics degree there as well.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

There it is.

 

[twobear]

About as interesting as the one he is presenting.

Well at least that's an improvement over 'it doesn't make coherent sense!'

 

[crazyprac]

Am I the only one here that loves this guy? His articles are insane, but they're pretty funny if you look at them like Onion articles.

Too bad ars is positioned as a professional tech site.

Look how different their programming tabs are compared to this "journalism".

 

[Wagram]

Well that was 5 minutes i'll never get back. I could have sketched a random ass graph myself and came to the same conclusion.

 

[Ape]

Hahaha Sony hearing footsteps!

They know they will finish out of first AGAIN!

Everyone just needs to admit it at this point. There's no way Sony can pull this one out. There just isn't.

I'd hate to be Sony right now. Probably having night sweats due to this chart and the realization of finishing 2nd. Every day that passes is a day closer to xbox's domination. Whenever a Windows 10 device is turned on Kaz pisses his pants.

 

[SpinningBirdKick]

Microsoft marketing budget at work.

 

[Kaffeemann]

Quantitive predictions nine years into the future = complete joke.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

These charts have to come from:

A) author is oblivious to how sales growth YOY actually tends to go
B) the author is purposely using a pointless data point to project something he knows won't reflect reality
C) the author is a raging fanboy spin artist

 

[N.Domixis]

They forgot to integrate the difference chart to give us the amount of psn users and xbox live users!

 

[Emedan]

People completely misunderstand the point that's being made in the article. It has nothing to do with the author believing these consoles will sell this much - the out drawn time line is only three to illustrate a point of how ridiculously far behind the XBO is. So stop this nonsense


It's how I would interpret it at least

 

[ICPEE]

lol

 

[Bastables]

Well that was 5 minutes i'll never get back. I could have sketched a random ass graph myself and came to the same conclusion.

Would anyone sane actually come up with: no one knows the future = Xbox one sales leader post 2024.

 

[thekiddfran]

This is what you get when some scmuck with a liberal arts degree decides to make a graph

 

[twobear]

People completely misunderstand the point that's being made in the article. It has nothing to do with the author believing these consoles will sell this much - the out drawn time line is only three to illustrate a point of how ridiculously far behind the XBO is. So stop this nonsense

Exactly. People see a chart showing Xbone outselling the PS4 and their brains switch off with rage at the affront to Sony and they don't pay attention to the wording. Embarrassing, really.

 

[benny_a]

People completely misunderstand the point that's being made in the article. It has nothing to do with the author believing these consoles will sell this much - the out drawn time line is only three to illustrate a point of how ridiculously far behind the XBO is. So stop this nonsense

So what have we learned.

Kyle Orland can come up a hypothesis so retarded he won't even believe it himself?

Exactly. People see a chart showing Xbone outselling the PS4 and their brains switch off with rage at the affront to Sony and they don't pay attention to the wording. Embarrassing, really.

Yeah, this article certainly is the hill to die on for quality journalism. If only GAF wasn't so teh bias then maybe we could be blessed with more insightful articles but alas it can not be as GAF is not ready.

 

[alr1ght]

 

[De_Legend]

What the hell..

 

[Ape]

People completely misunderstand the point that's being made in the article. It has nothing to do with the author believing these consoles will sell this much - the out drawn time line is only three to illustrate a point of how ridiculously far behind the XBO is. So stop this nonsense


It's how I would interpret it at least

Well, the first words after the headline are "
Xbox One sales are improving, but not fast enough to catch up to PS4"

 

[twobear]

People completely misunderstand the point that's being made in the article. It has nothing to do with the author believing these consoles will sell this much - the out drawn time line is only three to illustrate a point of how ridiculously far behind the XBO is. So stop this nonsense


It's how I would interpret it at least

It hardly needs interpretation--that point is clearly stated in the article.

 

[Xater]

What?

Lol, okay.

The argument is supposed to be that even if you implausibly believe that the Xbox will continue its current sales increases, it would still take way longer than the lifetime of the product for it to outsell PS4.

That's a perfectly coherent point even if you're incapable of understanding it.

I think some of you saw a graph where Xbox outsold PS4 and your brains switched off with rage.

It's a valid point based on bogus data, that's why I am making fun of it. You can do a real projection and make the same point.

 

[Emedan]

So what have we learned.

Kyle Orland can come up a hypothesis so retarded he won't even believe it himself?

That with current trends the XBO would never outsell the ps4 in any feasible scenario. The absurdity is shown with how long this potential overtake would take, long after the generation is something of the past

 

[alr1ght]

Exactly. People see a chart showing Xbone outselling the PS4 and their brains switch off with rage at the affront to Sony and they don't pay attention to the wording. Embarrassing, really.

No, we see that the author extrapolates random data from nothing and makes an article about it. It tells us absolutely nothing and is embarassing coming from a once reliable tech website.

 

[Palette Swap]

Exactly. People see a chart showing Xbone outselling the PS4 and their brains switch off with rage at the affront to Sony and they don't pay attention to the wording. Embarrassing, really.

Yeah, imagine if he entertained the scenario enough to make a chart and write :

Still, it's interesting to see that based on current trends, the Xbox One wouldn't start to outsell the PS4 on an annual basis until 2024. At that point, Sony would have continued building up a significant life-to-date lead of over 50 million consoles worldwide before Microsoft would be able to stop the bleeding (Fig. 8).

A scenario which nobody in their right mind would consider but that still needs to be spelled out to make the incredibly thought provoking point that Microsoft needs sustained growth.

 

[hawk2025]

Exactly. People see a chart showing Xbone outselling the PS4 and their brains switch off with rage at the affront to Sony and they don't pay attention to the wording. Embarrassing, really.

You keep bumbling this, but the implication of the criticism is that the possibility of the Xbox selling more is *not* as remote as the article implies, actually.

But, again, you can't see this unless you realize that it's nonsense inference.

 

[EoinOL]

Now all we need to do is extrapolate the current human population growth rate to know when there will be more consoles than people.

2038:

By 2040, just Xbox Ones outnumber humans (PS4s take until 2045 to reach this landmark). By 2050 there are over ten consoles for each human (and 80% of them are Xbox Ones).

 

[The Lamp]

I think this is the most embarrassing part of all - although, I see he has not listed his Statistics degree there as well.

Unfortunately, I don't think every computer science or journalism program requires students to take statistics. He could have benefited from a bit of that.