While this might be true, remember that if it comes to a Trump 3rd party bid he's not going to be running to win. He's going to be running to burn the GOP to the ground and to do as much damage as humanly possible.
Trump Heat Check: The Donald Grows Stronger?
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While this might be true, remember that if it comes to a Trump 3rd party bid he's not going to be running to win. He's going to be running to burn the GOP to the ground and to do as much damage as humanly possible.
Veritigo_X
Member
If he runs third party, I think it's safe to say that Bill orchestrated this whole thing.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
No, the best possible scenario is for Trump to be the nominee. He is deeply unpopular with independents to the point that he's practically unelectable.
He might be, but Trump's existence at the top of the ballot is going to the wrong kind of people (from the GOP's perspective) galvanized to vote. Trump as a sideshow is just a sideshow.
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
Eh, I don't agree. I think there are plenty of Republicans just like there are Dems that vote with the party no matter what. Sure it would be entertaining for him to be the GOP nominee but the chances of him actually winning is too frightening and not worth the potential entertainment.
Going 3rd party burns the GOP to the ground. That would be much more entertaining for me personally.
Netherscourge
Banned
I thought Trump was going to fade, but world events keep happening in HIS FAVOR.
As disturbing a trend as that sounds, whenever something happens like a terrorist attack, or cops killing unarmed minority youths or a illegal/undocumented immigrant commits a crime in the USA, or a shooting spree or any number of hot button issues comes to the forefront, he comes out and says EXACTLY what the right-wing voter base wants to hear.
Literally any hot button topic gives Trump a chance to stroke GoP constituents, which keeps him at the top and relevant.
And the #1 reason he's leading the other candidates is because the News Media loves his outrageously blunt sound bites. None of the other candidates rattle off the harsh comments as often as Trump does.
After President Obama, Donald Trump is the #1 person the news media goes to for comments on major world events now. Just for the sound bites alone.
The news media are contributing to Trump's success, whether they want to admit it or not.
As disturbing a trend as that sounds, whenever something happens like a terrorist attack, or cops killing unarmed minority youths or a illegal/undocumented immigrant commits a crime in the USA, or a shooting spree or any number of hot button issues comes to the forefront, he comes out and says EXACTLY what the right-wing voter base wants to hear.
Literally any hot button topic gives Trump a chance to stroke GoP constituents, which keeps him at the top and relevant.
And the #1 reason he's leading the other candidates is because the News Media loves his outrageously blunt sound bites. None of the other candidates rattle off the harsh comments as often as Trump does.
After President Obama, Donald Trump is the #1 person the news media goes to for comments on major world events now. Just for the sound bites alone.
The news media are contributing to Trump's success, whether they want to admit it or not.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
It's completely worth it because someone is going to be the GOP nominee regardless and everyone else running is more palatable to swing voters.
I worry about this. Everyone thought Trump would be done in a month. Not only is he basically going to get 45% of the vote no matter what, there are actually people who say things like, "I might vote for Sanders, Trump, or Carson." Even if they voted Democrat in the past, people really like outsiders for the sake of being outsiders. This crosses party lines.
Edit: In addition, the dude is just entertaining. That attracts a lot of votes. I'd actually watch a nonscripted sitcom with him. "The Donald!" This fall!
It's not that he'll fizzle out, more candidates will drop out and their supporters will rally behind one candidate. Trump may have about a quarter of the voters but he won't be the one gaining percentage points once people start dropping out. I find it very likely that the candidate will be Rubio.
gutter_trash
Banned
''You are no longer welcome at anymore weddings''
trump is doing even better if you look at second choices
Lv99 Slacker
Member
He's no longer in the running, but Pataki seemed like the most reasonable of the republican crop to me.
balladofwindfishes
Member
When Carson drops out, his supporters will pretty much go to Trump. And Trump + Carson puts Trump ahead of Rubio + Everyone else.
BertramCooper
Banned
Trump is probably going to pick up a majority of Ben Carson's supporters. Cruz will probably get the rest of them.
Rubio, meanwhile, will continue to pick up a modest percentage from the 1-2% candidates like Kasich and Christie as they leave the race.
If Rubio were running a competent campaign, he could possibly pull it off. But he's not. He can't fundraise and he can't muster up any sort of enthusiasm among the base.
Rubio is fucked.
The weird Cruz/Trump connection that is just kinda there seems like it could be a problem.
titiklabingapat
Member
Racism aside, Trump is actually the most moderate and least crazy GOP candidate up there.
Let that sink in for a luxurious moment.
Let that sink in for a luxurious moment.
Pretty much. Once Carson goes this contest is over. He holds a large enough block of support that whoever gets it can conceivably win this thing. If Rubio can get most of it then he's got a real shot, if Trump does then it's game over.
Orbis Tabula
Member
The whole Carson idea really drives home how important the drop out order is. If most of his voters would go to Trump, then every day that Carson stays in the race hurts Trump. If the establishment losers drop out, pumping up The Chosen One, whoever that is, while Carson keeps sapping Trump's numbers, it opens up a path for a Trump loss that otherwise wouldn't be there.
Yeah Mitt Romney does seem like a reasonable person in comparison.
I'm just in denial honestly. It's so hard to believe that he's gotten this far in the first place. Well at least the debates will be interesting next year. Let's see if he really does bring back his old Democrat ideals.
afternoon delight
Member
Maybe we're not taking into account the Antichrist angle- enough of God's party get duped into voting him in and the true Seventh Son of Corporate America rides a tide of fear into the primaries, sweeping the early vote and securing the nomination!
I think no matter what, it's going to come down to which way Carson's supporters swing. I don't think Trump can deal a death blow to the establishment without them and I don't think the establishment can beat Trump unless they swing in their favor. If he stays in long enough, it could very well come down to who has more momentum: Trump or the establishment pick. That's why Trump has been trying so hard to clear the rest of the field lately, he wants to have this wrapped up by the new year.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Definitely. I'm not even interested in Trump's numbers right now. They're predictable. All I want to see is if Carson rises or falls. Him falling would be Trump's dream come true.
PeskyToaster
Member
Remember those blissful days during his announcement. Ah the memories. We were so naive then. So full of laughter.
Trump openly said yesterday that he'd want Cruz for his VP.
I wonder if this has anything to do with Cruz suddenly getting into a feud with Rubio. Maybe Cruz is trying to take Rubio out for Trump.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Political history gurus of GAF tell me, has there ever been a case where a candidate picked his running mate before the primary ended? Have two candidates ever made a ride or die pact through the primary? Would e pretty exciting.
PeskyToaster
Member
I heard he was spending mostly donor money but he doesn't need much PAC money because every goofball thing he does ends up on the news.
From the latest polls it looks like Carson might be slipping and Trump is skimming that support. Then there's also Cruz's numbers, which could also swing either way.
Yep, he's been hitting everyone else on that at every debate.
I honestly have no idea, but nothing Trump does would surprise me any more. Cruz is exactly the kind of asshole who would team with Trump in a ride or die though.
People keep saying this. Maybe it's true, but I don't see it. Carson has the evangelical wing of the party on lock. Those people hate Trump. Believe me, 99% of my facebook friends are gushing over Carson and hate Trump. He's literally their last choice.
Multiple polls show that the second choice for most Carson supporters is Trump, and the second choice for most Trump supporters is Carson.
Absolutely.
If it Trump v. Carson v. Rubio v. Cruz, I think it gets interesting:
-- Iowa will be close, with Trump/Carson/Cruz all coming within points of each other.
-- New Hampshire will probably go to Trump.
-- South Carolina is Rubio's last stand. If he doesn't win here, he has no momentum. But this feels like if Carson is on the downswing, Trump will take it.
-- Trump probably would appeal the most to Nevada Republican caucus voters, especially since it's a closed caucus.
So where does that leave Rubio if he can't win any of those four states?
Veritigo_X
Member
Yep, here's a recent (11/4) Fox News poll that shows this:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...x-poll-gop-nomination-race-coming-into-focus/
boiled goose
good with gravy
Trump IMO is by far the least worst republican candidate.
The least corrupt.
The least religious.
The most moderate.
I honestly think that most of the things he says are done so without properly thinking about them or to pander to the base.
The least corrupt.
The least religious.
The most moderate.
I honestly think that most of the things he says are done so without properly thinking about them or to pander to the base.
Yep, here's a recent (11/4) Fox News poll that shows this:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...x-poll-gop-nomination-race-coming-into-focus/
HUH.
That all makes sense, except the "without Bush" column, wonder how accurate this kind of poll is.
BertramCooper
Banned
Cruz has run a pretty brilliant campaign, but its ultimate success relies on a Trump implosion. And that is entirely out of his hands.
I think he's guaranteed that he'll finish in at least second. But if Trump doesn't collapse, it will end up being a pretty distant second.
We have to keep in mind that if Trump and Cruz have a ride or die, then any delegates that Cruz picks up will eventually go to Trump.
BoboBrazil
Member
Nooooo, Cruz is horrible. Don't do this Trump. By the way, another billionaire donor announced support for Rubio today.
The common guess is that they've had a ride or die agreement since the summer. They did have a closed door meeting not long after Trump announced.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Can't believe people say he's so moderate. Name one moderate stance he currently holds and I'll show you 15 that are hardcore. He's talking about building a deportation force to get 11 million illegal immigrants out.
Anything on immigration or foreign policy really?
I live in Oklahoma so, if Trump runs as an Independent in the general, he's got my vote. Hillary, or whatever Democrat, doesn't stand a chance here. Independent Trump would be a nightmare for Republicans.
"haha but seriously guys walls and deportation sound cool to me"
QuiteWhittle
Member
His massive tax cuts? His plans to build a wall across the US-Mexican border, deport all undocumented immigrants, and repeal birthright citizenship? His desire to repeal the ACA? His belief that climate change is a hoax? I could go on forever.
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