there's probably not though. he's been in the spotlight for a long time. I feel like any skeletons he could have had would have been unearthed already.
Trump Heat Check: The Donald Grows Stronger?
- Thread starter PBY
- Start date
- Status
there's probably not though. he's been in the spotlight for a long time. I feel like any skeletons he could have had would have been unearthed already.
~Devil Trigger~
In favor of setting Muslim women on fire
the beginning of the end of the GOP
Hard to say. It might permanently damage their coalition if they tried something like that. On the other hand, they want to win.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Clinton has very high approval ratings among the Democratic base. Where are people getting this idea that Democrats actually hate her?
Public racism has been really bad since 2008. But definitely bigotry against Latinos will be worse when Trump wins.
The GOP is fixing to lose the Latino vote for the next two generations, at this rate.
The issue there is that he's been in the public eye for longer than Hillary. We already know about whatever he's got in that closet by now.
Look at Gingrich in December 2011. He lead Romney 35 - 22. In September of that year Perry lead Romney 32 - 20. These up and down turnarounds happen all the time, and people seem to always forget that the Republican Party doesn't want Trump or Carson. They won't get money or endorsements and the party will focus their support on the candidate they want.
Most people aren't paying attention to the race just yet. I'm as confident as ever that Trump will not be anywhere near the nomination at this point.
Bernie stans trying to convince themselves Hillary won't win.
A split convention would be amazing for many reasons, in terms of history and entertainment. It could very well happen too with 2nd, 3rd, 4th place candidates continuing to run, knowing they could come out of the convention as the nominee through backroom dealings.
The difference is that Romney was always running a strong second. If anything Trump is this cycle's Romney. His numbers have been scarily solid since the first debate. Meanwhile Fiorina, Jeb and Carson have come and gone. If anything they look more flavor of the month than Trump does. Trump's number have been way too solid for way too long to be just another flavor candidate.
Carson's not flavor of the month, either.
hopefully that democratic base is enough. I think she's going to need a wider appeal but we'll see.
This is a collapse decades in the making. Nixon's southern strategy had to run out of steam eventually.
PeskyToaster
Member
Yeah and he doesn't play a holier-than-thou kind of person so any sort of moral scandal would alienate conservatives who already don't like him as a new york businessman. I guess the GOP made this bed and now they have to sleep in it.
Romney was the choice of the party and Trump is not.
Iowa caucus is in just over two months and Trump leads polls there. When are Iowans going to pay attention?
Diprosalic
Banned
two months is a pretty long time.
most countries elections are shorter than 2 months.
That may be true, but we won't know for sure until at least the results of the first few primaries come through. Until then, it's safer to assume that precedence does have some weight and that Trump's chances remain fairly low.
You're not taking any of Trump's major obstacles into account. Right now, he's polling pretty well and for a sustained period of time. However, we don't know if he has any ability to turn that support into actual primary votes and what happens when advertising becomes more important. It's entirely possible that Trump can fade away without making any substantial mistakes.
Voters decide.
The Lamonster
Member
ugh. what is wrong with people?
Two months is forever.
And the parties decide who the voters get to decide on.
If anyone thinks a lack of party support isn't going to hurt Trump you're delusional. If he succeeds by some miracle it will be in spite of that hurdle.
I don't know where you get this from. Obama supporters were only voting against McCain?
So is Jeb going to win? He's the one with all the endorsements and money.
Romney had actual support among voters though.
Look, I'd fucking love to be wrong. Sure, my poligaf bet was on Trump winning this but that's only because I thought it'd be funny. But so far, I'm not seeing any way for Rubio to overcome Trump's support or organization. Not only is Trump running like 20-30 points above Rubio, and has been for the entire race so far, he's also got the best campaign infrastructure in the republican primary. That's not a joke, I wish it was though. He hired the guy that won Santorum Iowa to lead his efforts in Iowa. He's opening offices in the primary states while Rubio is sitting on his ass and talking about running his campaign like it's UBER. It feels like Trump is the only one putting any real effort into winning this thing.
It's the GOP/Fox News/Talk Radio's anti-establishment rhetoric coming home to roost. They've been selling the Washington=evil point so strongly that their supporters ended up actually believing it.
Rubio seems more likely, but they haven't settled on one just yet.
For more on Iowa, again look at 2012. A month before Gingrich was running away with it. Building up to it, Romney didn't lead once until a few days before. At this time that year he was in 3rd place.
Diprosalic
Banned
Isn't money going over to Rubio atm?
No Republican has very many endorsements, and Jeb's money mostly went to his SuperPAC. He only got a small amount of donations, and it's been hurting his campaign.
Yeah, but I don't think "run out of steam" is 100% correct. It's still effective at the state and local level. Just, on a national level, that strategy has left the Republicans behind.
Jeb's PAC started with like $100 million. And yet he's getting crushed. So is Rubio.
All of the flavors of the month in 2012 led for about a month each. Trump has been on top for months. It's just not the same situation. If there's unequivocal evidence that The Party Decides you should show us. Calling other people delusional implies a level of objective certainty.
Obama is a great example of voting for someone. he legitimately inspired people and made them feel hopeful about him as a President. I don't think Hillary is going to come close to replicating what Obama captured.
QuiteWhittle
Member
I can't wait for the glorious election cycle when the Deep South is majority black.
shanafan
Member
Nothing is wrong with people. They could say the same about other candidates that they do not agree with.
Romney wasn't leading at any point really and came back from third place to win Iowa. He was the party's choice. When has a candidate that the party explicitly did not want won the nomination?
RPGCrazied
Member
If Trump somehow wins, my ass is moving to Canada. I don't care what it takes to get there. Do not want to live in this country with that man running things.
This is the same date range as the earlier graph. He's in first multiple times and never dips below second. He also has much better polling than Jeb, Rubio, or Walker ever had.
2008 Obama?
This is the same date range as the earlier graph. He's in first multiple times and never dips below second. He also has much better polling than Jeb, Rubio, or Walker ever had.
I don't know what the graph is saying. I don't think Romneys polls were flat like that.
But when has someone the party didn't want win the nomination?
Goldwater.
I have said this many times before, in different ways, but I'll say it again.
I'm shocked that so many are so strongly against the idea of Trump. There is absolutely nothing to any of his "extreme" views. He is saying what people want to hear in order to climb to the top, to take out everyone else. Once he secures the nomination (which he will) and his only true opponent is Hillary, his presentation and even much of his policy will shift in order to sway the democrats. He will do so without losing the Republican voters because he will then be the ordained "one" for that side, and he will not do so to the extent that it forces anyone to try to decide on someone else at the convention.
If he is elected President, he will then start to negotiate away much of the far right ideas he has presented and more meet in the middle.
Heck, I'll go so far to say that I think he is the only candidate period that would ultimately be able to get things done on either side of the aisle. I've thought this from almost the very beginning, and I think it even more so now.
I just can't believe that so many people are taking him at face value. That is more insane to me than anything he has actually said or done so far, haha.
On the whole Trump and Carson thing - once Carson pulls back, drops out, the entire nomination race will be over and he will essentially hand it to Trump. I don't think Carson even makes it very far into 2016 at all.
I'm shocked that so many are so strongly against the idea of Trump. There is absolutely nothing to any of his "extreme" views. He is saying what people want to hear in order to climb to the top, to take out everyone else. Once he secures the nomination (which he will) and his only true opponent is Hillary, his presentation and even much of his policy will shift in order to sway the democrats. He will do so without losing the Republican voters because he will then be the ordained "one" for that side, and he will not do so to the extent that it forces anyone to try to decide on someone else at the convention.
If he is elected President, he will then start to negotiate away much of the far right ideas he has presented and more meet in the middle.
Heck, I'll go so far to say that I think he is the only candidate period that would ultimately be able to get things done on either side of the aisle. I've thought this from almost the very beginning, and I think it even more so now.
I just can't believe that so many people are taking him at face value. That is more insane to me than anything he has actually said or done so far, haha.
On the whole Trump and Carson thing - once Carson pulls back, drops out, the entire nomination race will be over and he will essentially hand it to Trump. I don't think Carson even makes it very far into 2016 at all.
That $100 million ended up hurting Jeb a lot. SuperPAC funds have a lot of limitations attached to them: they're most useful in advertising, and they cannot be used to pay for a campaign's standard outflows. Advertising so early in the campaign isn't very useful, and it's hard to convince people to donate to a candidate who seemed so flush with cash.
BertramCooper
Banned
The next president is pretty much guaranteed at least one Supreme Court appointment. Very likely two.
So potentially a great deal of damage.
Orbis Tabula
Member
True. Could be that none of Trump's support will materialize in to enough votes to take primaries. But I don't know if there's any reason to assume that's the case. I wouldn't be shocked at all, though.
It was heavily contested but I don't know that the party was explicitly against his nomination.
He also lost in a huge landslide, so I don't know that it supports the idea the party would allow it again.
ramuh
Member
Are you really going to move if he is elected? Serious question.
- Status