Trump Heat Check: The Donald Grows Stronger?
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From the 2012 autopsy report authored by GOP Chairman Reince Priebus.
And yet...
But Rubio is Cuban, why isn't he pulling into that 100 percent favorable already???
valkillmore
Member
And in the context of this election cycle, 'soon' could go on for another few months still.
Thought I doubt he will fizzle. I can see a Trump/Rubio* ticket. Who else is going to lead the party at this point, really?
* Edit - Wrote Cruz by accident.
Anton Sugar
Member
Well, if there's one thing that will get us lazy Dems to get out and vote, it will be the threat of Trump.
...right?
...right?
Diprosalic
Banned
not me, people don't give a shit about the race now but once it's getting close people will flock away from Trump. Newt led with up to 33% in late November last time. I also believe that he has a ceiling and that has already been reached while Rubio will collect voters from candidates that drop out. He's on an upwards trend for a while now.
shadowsdarknes
Member
I do hope Trump gets the nomination.
Even if he became president I'd be happier than if someone like Ted Cruz.
Even if he became president I'd be happier than if someone like Ted Cruz.
This joke became unfunny to me when I started to question whether or not he actually had a chance at the nomination. I still don't think he stands a chance in the general but I didn't think he could get this far so what the hell do I know.
Deadly Cyclone
Pride of Iowa State
Rubio is honestly the best over there. I'd rather see him get a shot.
probably not. I feel like democrats and people who vote democrat are tired of voting against someone rather than voting for someone.
After Paris poll: Which candidate is best suited to deal with terrorism?
28.7 "None"
20.3 Clinton
19.5 Trump
Trump and Clinton effectively tied, lol.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM743Y15/
28.7 "None"
20.3 Clinton
19.5 Trump
Trump and Clinton effectively tied, lol.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM743Y15/
ThatCrazyGuy
Member
If trump/cruz get the nom, the open racism could get out of control is what i fear.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I do think it is more likely that Trump fails than succeeds, but I'd still say that he has pretty good odds of being the pick, as it stands now. What has me most interested is not the national numbers, but that's he's leading in literally almost every state.
Either way, if Trump ever does drop out, I'll think you'll see more Democrat Gaffers disappointed than Republicans.
Either way, if Trump ever does drop out, I'll think you'll see more Democrat Gaffers disappointed than Republicans.
While Trump's chances of winning the Republican nomination are stronger now than a month ago, the likelihood of him actually winning it defy all precedent. If precedence has any weight, Trump has much lower odds than an establishment figure winning (probably Rubio). And if it doesn't, then he still has to overcome a lot of obstacles that he hasn't demonstrated much strength in. On the other side, Clinton is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee, and for similar reasoning.
Not really. There's too many minority voters in America that know that if a Republican is elected into office with a GOP-controlled congress, they're fucked.
People said he couldn't pass 30%, now he's closing in on 40%. The come to Jesus moment you're describing hasn't been seen in the modern history of primaries, it would take the biggest swing in history for Trump to lose this. Rubio is like 30 points down right now, his upward trend consisted of going from 5% support to 7% support.
PeskyToaster
Member
I'd vote for Trump for the hilarity if it wouldn't be so harmful to people's rights and lives.
I hope so..
Diprosalic
Banned
40% where? afaik he dipped from 30 down to 25-ish
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Cain led for about one month. He shot up suddenly and then shot down the second anyone actually paid attention to him. Similar to Fiorina. Trump has led for almost five months straight and attention has not hurt him.
Edit: You changed it to Newt. He had two rises and both were also very brief.
Veritigo_X
Member
This level support, for this amount of time... I don't know. What does history say about a candidate in that position? With the rise and fall of Carson I'm more sure than ever that Trump isn't a flavor of the month(s) like people have been saying.
It'll take something crazy to happen for his support to turn around, and I don't even know what it would take given the things he's said that haven't sunk his campaign already. Plus, the Paris attacks have only solidified his support. I agree that it's too early to say for sure, but you have to agree that this election cycle is different than what we've seen in the past.
RCP is junk. HuffPo Pollster (posted above) is the real deal.
diffusionx
Gold Member
I've heard that Trump was gonna die about 30 times in the past six months. The last time was that frankly bizarre rant he made in Iowa (with the knife/belt). But it seemed to have worked - Carson is going down in polls while Trump is going up. Meanwhile Marco Rubio, who was anointed by the press a few weeks ago, is going nowhere (he was going nowhere before he was anointed).
At some point the political establishment in this country is going to have to face reality. Republican primary voters (who are, as a whole, far more conservative than the rest of the country) want this guy. They don't want shitty Jeb or Marco Rubio.
Precedent does not have nearly as much weight as people think it does. We've had maybe 15 Presidential elections in the "age of polling." It's tough to get any sort of useful information out of 15 samples. And think of how much the country has changed since, I don't know, Dewey-Truman.
At some point the political establishment in this country is going to have to face reality. Republican primary voters (who are, as a whole, far more conservative than the rest of the country) want this guy. They don't want shitty Jeb or Marco Rubio.
Precedent does not have nearly as much weight as people think it does. We've had maybe 15 Presidential elections in the "age of polling." It's tough to get any sort of useful information out of 15 samples. And think of how much the country has changed since, I don't know, Dewey-Truman.
Diprosalic
Banned
Trump is a famous guy from TV, that must help early immensely. By large people still don't know jack shit about the candidates, look what happened to Carson once he got to the top.
PeskyToaster
Member
Would the party make a move to prevent a Trump nom at the convention? Can they?
BertramCooper
Banned
Rubio can collect more supporters as others drop out, but so can Trump.
Who do you think is more likely to pick up Ben Carson supporters: Trump or Rubio?
Diprosalic
Banned
I think they're pretty much in the bag for Trump. The only way Trump loses this is if he absolutely wants to lose.
Isn't the first caucus in January? It's no longer early.
gutter_trash
Banned
good,
Trump's job is to prevent America from having another Bush in the White House
all hail Hillary
Trump's job is to prevent America from having another Bush in the White House
all hail Hillary
Depends on how many delegates he wins, if he hits the magic number then they're screwed. If he's short they can turn it into a fight, but if they do they run the risk of a 3rd party Trump bid.
Orbis Tabula
Member
The only reason I think Trump could make it is this: in order for him to not win the nom, something has to happen. Something must change between now and the convention that makes him lose support, because if they had to choose today, he'd win. So what is it that sinks him? I can't imagine what it is. I mean, before I thought I did. I imagined him saying something crazy and it destroying him. But that isn't working. So what does he say or do before the primaries that makes him drop? His Democrat past, his sexiest remarks, his criticism and veterns, nothing is hurting him. What sinks him?
I bet a brokered convention would stop it, but I really can't imagine the party wanting that to be how it goes down.
I bet a brokered convention would stop it, but I really can't imagine the party wanting that to be how it goes down.
capitalCORN
Member
#PrayforAmerica
Veritigo_X
Member
I think he's backed away from that position.
gutter_trash
Banned
because Hispanics are not monolithic. The term is a Nixon over generalization of anything Spanish speaking.
older Cuban-Americans who have anti-Castro sentiment lean Republican.
Trump has been on top 20 times longer than Carson. Carson may have been on top for about a week or two. Americans may not know much about Trump, but I would argue they know more about him than any other candidate.
This is what it comes down to, his support isn't going anywhere without a reason. His supporters aren't just going to magically wake up one day and realize they've been backing an insane billionaire and decide to go with Rubio. If someone is going to unseat Trump they'll need to find a way to damage him and I'm not so sure it's possible.
QuiteWhittle
Member
16 years ago, yeah.
Limited Edition
Banned
At the same time, I feel there is a lot of Democratic voters who just may stay home because Hillary isn't who they actually want. If a serious portion of them stay home or vote third party, it could very well be enough to sink her.
Didn't he sign some contract saying he wasn't going to do that?
If that was going to be the case Hillary wouldn't be polling at 60% or whatever insane number she's at now. Besides, she's got the Obama turnout machine behind her and is a history making candidate. Those two things alone will be enough to get out the vote.
It's non-binding. Besides, this is Trump. He's got an army of $500/hr lawyers working for him, if anyone can get out of an contract it's him. Do you really think his ego would let him be forced out without going back for revenge? The man lives for revenge, he holds grudges like no one else.
BoboBrazil
Member
GOP won't give the nom to Trump because he won't be their puppet. That will force him to run independent and kill the good chances even more.
Diprosalic
Banned
that's what i meant, he can stay on longer because he's famous and people know what kind of person he is. there is no quick way to shoot him down but i still believe more established politicians will be able to move ahead in time. That and GOP isn't entirely happy about him.
guess we'll see. i'll take bets on it tho.
Veritigo_X
Member
That isn't legally binding. The GOP would just whine and complain that he isn't a man of his word or something like that.
PeskyToaster
Member
We need a scandal. He's a rich billionaire so there's gotta be some skeletons.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I think the general belief is that it wasn't anything legally binding, so he could just ignore it and probably wouldn't lose much face with voters. However, I do think some states have spoiler laws that prevent you from being on the ballot if you already lost a primary. In that case, he might be in trouble.
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