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[3rdamention]

Except they sold more than 18 million. That number does not include people who haven't used their system in four weeks. * I know this is NeoGAF but oftentimes people go a long time without playing games. I booted up my PS4 for the first time in like 3 months the other day.

* Based on an Analyst with projections from an unverified source at MS.


These numbers are far from concrete, this is an analyst making these statements based on an unverified source. There is a lot of room for wiggle, a lot of room to be completely incorrect, or they could be totally spot on. But this isn't hard sales data, and this isn't even verified data at that.

 

[Miles X]

Jesus, I love how everybody jumps on the numebrs like they're factual!

 

[3rdamention]

Well this is what we are going off of. She was told 200M W10 active units and was given a breakdown. 180M computers, 18M XBO and 2M W10 phones have been active and used in the past 28 days. Assuming that not all XBOs have been used in the past 28 days, the number moves north.

I don't think a console that is plugged in, did a background update without being turned on and hasn't been used would be counted in this figure. This is targeting "active" users which is MS' big investor focus now.

Its actually targeting active "consoles." If this was targeting active users, the number would be much much higher cause then we would be getting the MAUs/Number of active Silver and Gold members, hotmail accounts, Win10 users, etc.

 

[etta]

Jesus, I love how everybody jumps on the numebrs like they're factual!

They're in line with Zhuge's "greater than 17.75 million", aren't they?
Whether it's 18.0 or 18.5 or 17.95, it doesn't make a massive difference to this topic.

 

[gamechanger87]

Yes, but that figure you gave is awfully specific for an estimation... Not to mention far much higher than I would like to believe, but then again, Unit sales numbers are things I've never taken an interest in until today.

I can understand 18+X million, but how did you get to 97.9? A chart would be nice too.

Got it!

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Jesus, I love how everybody jumps on the numebrs like they're factual!

Have you not read the thread, what "everybody"?

 

[gamechanger87]

Its actually targeting active "consoles." If this was targeting active users, the number would be much much higher cause then we would be getting the MAUs/Number of active Silver and Gold members, hotmail accounts, Win10 users, etc.

Yep. Sorry typing too fast. I meant active consoles.

 

[diffusionx]

* Based on an Analyst with projections from an unverified source at MS.


These numbers are far from concrete, this is an analyst making these statements based on an unverified source. There is a lot of room for wiggle, a lot of room to be completely incorrect, or they could be totally spot on. But this isn't hard sales data, and this isn't even verified data at that.

This is true. But Mary Jo Foley has been working the MS beat forever, she's very good and has come up with good scoops before. I think she's as good as we are going to get when it comes to MS info.

 

[darkinstinct]

"China is home to 515 million gamers, of which only around 9 million, according to Bloomberg News, play on televisions".

Wow, you would have thought they would have research that before launching into China.

Consoles were banned in China not too long ago. They entered the market because of the huge potential.

 

[Elandyll]

Press F.



That's a bit of an understatement.

?
I thought it was a fair estimate, between the low end (18m, when we know it's got to be more than 17.8m afaik) and the high end (20m, unless Rotw found recently an unsuspected thirst for XB1 that is).
You disagree?

 

[Mexen]

Got it!

Lmfao

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Got it!

Should have been a pie chart, though.

 

[slavesnyder]

Got it!

Beautiful.
Ars could not do it better.

 

[Collateral22]

Got it!

I give it an hour before he tweets about gaf being sony biased

 

[le.phat]

Looks like they had a good holiday and shrunk the gap

How do hese people even find these forums is beyond me.

 

[Jrs3000]

This thread is a mess and the OP title still hasn't had been labeled as rumor. One thing I can see happening though if they did come out with official numbers of 20-25mil+ is this gif. Just add the xbox symbol and some captions of gaf members heads exploding.

 

[Raist]

Just a quick reminder: that 17.7M figure for the 360, which is presumably lower than XB1's at the same point in time, is shipped, not sold.

 

[VincentMatts]

Damn, still at 2:1. There's nothing they can do to shrink that gap now if not even Halo had a notable affect.

At this point its a windows vista effect. People who havent tried it still hate it cause of what happened 3 years ago and word of mouth. Theres nothing they can do but launch a new console at this point.

 

[Dyson Industries]

Wii also launched a year after its competition and wii u launched a year before its. We can keep adding factors to why this and that succeeded or didn't but in my personal opinion, while Ps4's lead is substantial, the xbone doesn't look that far behind.

Wait, are we "adding factors" or providing context?
---Wii launched a year late and whomped the competition.
---PS2 launched a year early and whomped the competition.
---WiiU launched a year early and failed

PS4 and Xbone launched at the same time and Xbone is getting outsold at a 2:1 margin which isn't going to close anytime soon if Halo couldn't make a dent. Your post-holiday generosity of spirit is appreciated, but misplaced.

 

[Apathy]

Any better ideas to get the majority of the market? Give the console away for free?

The gen is done they aren't fighting for the majority. There's no point in doing what you're suggesting only to split their base. Instead you take the lessons learned, apply money to the next installments of the machine and then just continue this gen making compelling games and new ips.

 

[HocusPocus]

Good sales and only negative if you compare to PS4.

 

[slavesnyder]

At this point its a windows vista effect. People who havent tried it still hate it cause of what happened 3 years ago. Theres nothing they can do but launch a new console at this point.

Owners of 18 million activated units surely would be glad about that.

 

[Zophar]

Good sales and only negative if you compare to PS4.

or the 360.

 

[BossDarkseid]

I give it an hour before he tweets about gaf being sony biased

Tim Dog is blatantly a gaf stalker.

https://twitter.com/PNF4LYFE/status/685579111645970433

 

[VincentMatts]

Owners of 18 million activated units surely would be glad about that.

Theres no other way to finish 1st. It can still do very well, its doing better than 360 was, but if they wanna win, they need a clean slate a la windows vista to 7 or windows 8 to 10. They need a new one.

 

[SolidAwesome]

I give it an hour before he tweets about gaf being sony biased

LOL
The guy is clown, he is so upset that Playstation is beating the xbox one so badly that he gets delusional and thinks people really care about what he says. I really cant believe that there are grown mean like him that act like that in real life. Him and that Mooch character have got to be the dumbest fan boys on the internet, and the are GROWN MEN...smh

 

[WeaseL-]

Are these unique activated units or could resale's count or friends logging in as main user?

 

[slavesnyder]

Theres no other way to finish 1st. It can still do very well, its doing better than 360 was, but if they wanna win, they need a clean slate a la windows vista to 7 or windows 8 to 10. They need a new one.

It's hardware we are talking, not software. People bought this stuff for a lot of money in good belief that they will have the premium product for at least 5 years or so.
If you now suddenly come around the corner with a new gen you will piss off the owners and kill confidence.
Plus, I am not sure if developers would really like this. They just started to master the consoles and have a healthy overall gen install base of two very similar consoles. That's an awesome situation for them.

 

[SolidAwesome]

Tim Dog is blatantly a gaf stalker.

https://twitter.com/PNF4LYFE/status/685579111645970433

Its crazy because he tells everyone to avoid neogaf, he makes a blog talking about how neogaf is bias, but yet this man continues to come to the site and stalk it everyday! What is wrong with him? He has such a hatred for neogaf and sony why doesn't he stay off the website then? I seriously dont get people like him. The guy has to have problems. Seriously.

Guy sounds like an old chipmunk as well. No one on earth takes the guy seriously.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

LOL
The guy is clown, he is so upset that Playstation is beating the xbox one so badly that he gets delusional and thinks people are really care about what he says. I really cant believe that there are grown mean like him that act like that in real life. Him and that Mooch character have got to be the dumbest fan boys on the internet, and the are GROWN MEN...smh

I suggest looking up parasite76 on Twitter. That's a true fanboy.

 

[SolidAwesome]

I suggest looking up parasite76 on Twitter. That's a true fanboy.

no way, that has to be Tims 2nd twitter account of something

 

[Miggytronz]

How off can this be? Either way 2:1 is going to happen at this rate no?

 

[Mendax]

Its crazy because he tells everyone to avoid neogaf, he makes a blog talking about how neogaf is bias, but yet this man continues to come to the site and stalk it everyday! What is wrong with him? He has such a hatred for neogaf and sony why doesn't he stay off the website then? I seriously dont get people like him. The guy has to have problems. Seriously.

Guy sounds like an old chipmunk as well. No one on earth takes the guy seriously.

I suggest looking up parasite76 on Twitter. That's a true fanboy.

If you know he's reading this this is just feeding the troll, big time...

 

[Hockeymac18]

Theres no other way to finish 1st. It can still do very well, its doing better than 360 was, but if they wanna win, they need a clean slate a la windows vista to 7 or windows 8 to 10. They need a new one.

Question is... Does it matter if they're not first?

As a user, I only care that I can play the games I want, and that they continue to support the system.

If I were MS, I'd be more concerned about profitability - and if I'm making money, I'm satisfied.

Releasing something prematurely is potentially way worse for the brand than not finishing first.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Got it!

/Death

 

[slavesnyder]

How off can this be? Either way 2:1 is going to happen at this rate no?

If Xbox catches up...

 

[gamechanger87]

Tim Dog is blatantly a gaf stalker.

https://twitter.com/PNF4LYFE/status/685579111645970433

I win haha.

If he actually looked at any of my posts he would realize that the post was in jest to Mendax.

 

[Miggytronz]

If Xbox catches up...

Has the PS4 train slowed?

 

[bryanee]

Does the XB1 still require that update before you can even use your console offline? Wouldn't that mean that every console technically has to be activated?

 

[etta]

Does the XB1 still require that update before you can even use your console offline? Wouldn't that mean that every console technically has to be activated?

That update was released in 2013 along with the console, I'm sure a 2015 SKU already has that update preinstalled.

 

[gamechanger87]

Does the XB1 still require that update before you can even use your console offline? Wouldn't that mean that every console technically has to be activated?

This isn't an activated number. Its the number of consoles that have been active (ie used in the past 28 days). That's why it isn't a sold number either.

 

[Madness]

Got it!

Theres no other way to finish 1st. It can still do very well, its doing better than 360 was, but if they wanna win, they need a clean slate a la windows vista to 7 or windows 8 to 10. They need a new one.

They won't ever win Japan which is pretty much a dead territory where consoles are concerned, and even last gen, though they absolutely killed in NA, UK, Australia, Xbox 360 had it tough against PS3 in western Europe and eastern Europe. That won't change even if they launch another console.

The only issue here has been that they are losing in countries like the US, Canada, UK that they won last gen. But Xbox One is selling better than Xbox 360, they're getting millions of sales for their IP's, why would they come out with a new console so a bunch of nerds on NeoGAF can be happy? If anything, they should finish Xbox One strong, keep doing what they've been doing, and then focus on the next console. The Xbox One launch was just a perfect storm of shit, whether it was the lackluster TV, TV, TV reveal, the Kinect at the height of the NSA spying scandal, the $100 higher price being the weaker console, the used games and always online fiasco which to this day a lot of ignorant consumers still think. I heard it from some kids like a month or two ago.

 

[Bioshocker]

Jesus, I love how everybody jumps on the numebrs like they're factual!

Ha, this is internet.

I think the real numbers are about 20 million at this stage. But who knows. Only Microsoft.

 

[Kyougar]

I was doing 36 + 18 = 54M. 18 / 54M = 0.33 (1/3). Not counting wii-u.

So Sony has 100% of the market, not counting WiiU Xbox, PC, handheld and Mobile.

 

[darkinstinct]

How off can this be? Either way 2:1 is going to happen at this rate no?

Of course it is. And even worse, end of this generation will likely be closer to 2.5:1. PS4 was at 18.5 million a year ago, meaning they sold more in the last year than in the 14 months before that.

Xbox One was at 11 million a year ago and is now at 18 to 19 million. So they sold less than they did in the 14 months before that. Having lower sales yoy (or close to stagnant) despite a price cut and a good lineup is bad.

Ubisofts prediction of 56 million PS4/XB1 by end of 2015 seems to have been quite accurate.

 

[etta]

They won't ever win Japan which is pretty much a dead territory where consoles are concerned, and even last gen, though they absolutely killed in NA, UK, Australia, Xbox 360 had it tough against PS3 in western Europe and eastern Europe. That won't change even if they launch another console.

The only issue here has been that they are losing in countries like the US, Canada, UK that they won last gen. But Xbox One is selling better than Xbox 360, they're getting millions of sales for their IP's, why would they come out with a new console so a bunch of nerds on NeoGAF can be happy? If anything, they should finish Xbox One strong, keep doing what they've been doing, and then focus on the next console. The Xbox One launch was just a perfect storm of shit, whether it was the lackluster TV, TV, TV reveal, the Kinect at the height of the NSA spying scandal, the $100 higher price being the weaker console, the used games and always online fiasco which to this day a lot of ignorant consumers still think. I heard it from some kids like a month or two ago.

Maybe they'll bundle a PS5 with the Xbox Two for only $100 more, or some value that just incentivizes the whole of Europe and Japan to seriously consider it.

Spoiler

Lmao.

 

[Occam]

talking about how neogaf is bias

Bias is a noun. The adjective is biased.

 

[virtualS]

If Microsoft has ceased releasing sell through figures then you know the situation for them is pretty dire.

People love trends and jumping on bandwagons and owning the 'it' thing. Once the collective consciousness is made aware of a 2:1 or greater sales ratio, it will soon be 3:1 and then 4:1...irrespective of how many great games Microsoft release.

Makes me wonder which element is more important to overall sell through figures: herd mentality or quality hardware and software. Maybe the latter generates the former.

 

[notaskwid]

?
I thought it was a fair estimate, between the low end (18m, when we know it's got to be more than 17.8m afaik) and the high end (20m, unless Rotw found recently an unsuspected thirst for XB1 that is).
You disagree?

No, because 18.5M consoles sold to consumers is as high as you can go as far as reasonable guestimations are concerned.

 

[Glorified G]

I'll go with Mary Jo analysis compared to Sales GAF. Sales GAF are mostly amateurs attempting to plan or predict, when it actually takes millions of variables to create an accurate model of sales, based on actual events of a prof I had at Uni, whose job was to predict sales in various industried and get them right or close to get companies to trust him and he got it within a 5% tolerance. We all know MS won't release actual numbers and we also know not all units are activate or updated, so best case MS is at 20-22M which is still almost a 2:1 ratio, right now the US market is keeping Xbox afloat, so I expect MS to jump next gen sooner, as soon as NX launches, so they have there own ideas on what rhey can improve on. I think this will the shortest gen this round compared to past gaming generations.

This is my favorite gem in this thread.