You should be doing that no matter who the candidate is.
Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?
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You should be doing that no matter who the candidate is.
Genuinely curious to see what kind of ads will be run if Trump really does get the go ahead for nomination. We really didn't have a social media flurry like we do now back then. The internet's sort of a weird place to talk politics on certain candidates all the same though, some of them like Sanders and Trump get inordinately loud on social media about most anything, be it significant or not. The question is whether you can cut through the bullshit online to get something of substance out of the information and how it will disseminate into the greater mainstream.
I do want to see those ads for and against Trump though. They'd probably be real fucking out there on both ends for a general.
I'm fairly certain Trump will get more than 60% of the white vote.
Gaf is really overestimating the appeal of Clinton and the minority vote. I feel like minorities and young people will once again stay at home while white people will vote en masse.
balladofwindfishes
Member
How is Donald Trump going to pull in more white voters than Reagan?
nature boy
Member
Chance?
He'll win unless Hillary starts exciting the Democratic base.
There might be additional swing states up for grabs.
He'll win unless Hillary starts exciting the Democratic base.
There might be additional swing states up for grabs.
Where are you getting the idea that Hillary doesn't excite the Democratic base? I'd be interested in some data.
Melon Husk
Member
benjipwns
Banned
Nah, the State of the Union spectacle is gross and offensive.
excelsiorlef
Member
But don't you see he's against Wallstreet... apparently that's all that matters. It's the fuck minorities and women stance
nature boy
Member
Turnout (overall down on 2008, but in Nevada it's down one-third)?
Trustworthiness - Affected by the email issue, but in past polls even Trump was more trustworthy.
Bernie Sanders actually very competitive so far. Expected Clinton to win by double digits, hasn't so far (we'll see what happens in South Carolina).
What indications do you have that Hillary is exciting the Democratic base?
Polling showing that she enjoys high approval/favorable ratings among Democratic primary voters - just as popular as Bernie, in fact.
metalslimer
Member
What I don't understand is how people somehow think that Clinton not being liked which isn't even true will prevent her from winning the presidency when Trump has historic disapproval from everyone outside of his base
Sectorseven
Member
Hillary's favorability is a problem in some regard. She's been at this game so long everyone knows everything about her, and she isn't likely to gain new voters. Trump on the other hand is brand new, and with low favorability he can really only go up.
Just dissonance caused from internet. Not much else.
metalslimer
Member
Or he can stay exactly where he is after pissing off the number of people he has.
People aren't voting for him for fun, they somehow agree with what he says.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I'm always confused as to why so many people are aware of Hillary's unfavorables, but they seem not to realize that Trump's unfavorables are far higher. If I hear another, "No one likes Hillary, but people will be energized by Trump" bit of analysis again, I will figuratively scream. On the inside. Where the sound only hurts me.
I refuse to believe that the majority of America is racist, bigoted and willing to let some hatemonger run the country.
I just can't believe that.
people are angry, and a large subsection of conservatives are giving trump their spite-vote against the GOP and Democratic party regardless of what they may or may not agree with.
I'm pretty sure most conservatives know he's not even a real conservative.
Sectorseven
Member
It's possible, but I don't think it's likely. Extreme negativity has a tendency to exhaust itself. It's like in the stock market where a shitty stock that's at zero will inexplicably start to go up.
Vinsanity.
Member
You guys don't seem to get it. People aren't voting for his ideas or beliefs, they are voting for him because they are angry with traditional politicians. I still can't believe that people don't understand why others are voting for trump.
They are SICK and fucking TIRED of politicians. PERIOD
excelsiorlef
Member
And fuck minorities and women right?
So vote Trump in and burn the whole thing down?
Let that maniac fuck everyone?
What kind of a solution is that?
NorthernIX
Member
Absolutely 100% correct. I am also amazed nobody understands this. It's been quite obvious for some time.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
Republicans have nothing and Trump filled that void. He knew it would be easy- the party is ripe for this kind of manipulation. The only reason people were wrong about Trump is that the Republican Party are plumbing new lows faster than people can get used to. Now, we'll be ready when a TV personality waltzes into a Republican process and basically bullies the bully into handing over their direct line to the 24/7 news cycle for self promotion.
Normal people aren't going to vote for him. People aren't amused by that kind of behavior at home, at work, or anywhere else in their lives other than from characters in a movie or on TV. Trump is that asshole TV character.
I'm not slightly sorry for saying this- those people are idiots. Truly. They can consume right wing entertainment all day and fuck up their local politics enough to do damage in Congress, but they won't decide the Presidency.
A politician knows the ins and outs of working in politics. That's not a negative.
It's a negative for idiots who really shouldn't even be interested in politics in the first place.
Vinsanity.
Member
Sigh. It could be anyone, it just happens to be Trump. They aren't thinking about what he says or what he could do.
People are sick of ANY and ALL politicians because of what they have done with this country. Trump just happens to be the name attached to the person who isn't a politician and is telling it like it is. (in his own twisted mind)
Do people truly not understand the anger that people feel towards traditional politicians and the traditional 2-party system??
Anger is a lovely, understandable emotion and it certainly has its place, but sidelining policy and voting primarily on emotion is the intellectual equivalent of "hey - this candidate says he'll get Choco Tacos back in the cafeteria! RAWR!!!1!"
I can understand that perfectly.
But I can't understand voting Trump in just as a big 'FUCK YOU!' to the system.
You still have to get out of bed the next day and Trump will be in charge.
Muffdraul
Member
So, they will literally vote for ANYONE as long as they aren't a politician. No matter how blatantly huge of a piece of shit they are. Yeah, I get it. I just think it's fucking absurd.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Long eras of the same party holding the presidency aren't really uncommon. Post Civil War Republicans and post New Deal Democrats, for example.
Vinsanity.
Member
They don't care man...they just don't care. Some of you are looking at this political process in way too much of a calm and rational way. That's not how people are voting anymore...they are voting because they are sick and tired of Washington DC and the people that work there. That's really all there is to it..
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Isn't Doctor Doom actually a great head of state for his people, though? Latveria is mad prosperous.
Androidsleeps
Member
The only way Trump can win is if Sanders supporters don't vote for Hillary if she wins the nom or vice versa. The amount of people saying if Hillary wins the nom I'm voting Trump is alarming.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
It's a very vocal but statistically insignificant minority. People (especially democrats, sadly) shout that stuff every cycle but it never amounts to much.
Brainfreeze
Member
Anecdotally, here in PA, Trump seems to be getting a lot of supporters from people previously unregistered or uninterested in voting. And Clinton remains polarizing, far more than Obama was.
Trump's not a guarantee, but he's certainly not impossible. He shouldn't be underestimated, especially if something happens in the next few months to create more fear in this country.
Edit: I should point out, this is talking mainly about the middle of the state. I'm sure Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and probably Harrisburg) are far more Hilary centric.
Trump's not a guarantee, but he's certainly not impossible. He shouldn't be underestimated, especially if something happens in the next few months to create more fear in this country.
Edit: I should point out, this is talking mainly about the middle of the state. I'm sure Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (and probably Harrisburg) are far more Hilary centric.
captainnapalm
Member
People hate the political system so much that some of them would just as soon toss a grenade in there and see what happens - Trump being the grenade.
They worshipped Ronald Reagan didn't they?
Agreed with everything you said except this. Hillary is nowhere near as polarizing.
Its is called the dark knight mobsters solution. Batman (Obama) have the mobster (Racis, bigots, republicans etc) so desperate, that they are turning into someone that they don't fully understand in the joker (trump) and just like the movie, that is going to blow up in everyone faces
TheBryanJZX90
Member
That may be true for some people who are being willfully blind to the hateful things Trump spouts. But plenty of people support trump because they agree with the hateful things Trump says.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-supporters-for-intolerance.html
Handwaving everything away as "fuck politicians amirite?" is just ignorant at best. Why do you think Trump says all of these things against minorities if it doesn't resonate with the people supporting him?
G-Bus
Banned
I still like to believe this is one big publicity thing and he's just going to start laughing during a speech one day and just walk away never to be seen again.
Like a bet he had with all his billionaire friends to see how far he could make it and now he's dumbfounded how he could say the most rediculius shit and people just friggen love it.
There's also a part of me that thinks he's secretly a brilliant man and when he does make it into the white house he'll end up being one of the best presidents the USA has ever known....
Like a bet he had with all his billionaire friends to see how far he could make it and now he's dumbfounded how he could say the most rediculius shit and people just friggen love it.
There's also a part of me that thinks he's secretly a brilliant man and when he does make it into the white house he'll end up being one of the best presidents the USA has ever known....
It's a necessary one.
There are so many people in this country that are lackadaisical about politics. Just let the government take care of everything, I have no power. I have no say.
Now, with Trump and Sanders running, people are realizing there may be a chance to actually voice their opinion. Trump has been winning every god damn thing, even his own party is assembling to destroy his momentum. They are afraid of him. Sanders has been doing incredibly well for someone that was only getting 26% of the national vote months ago. Sanders wins/ties when there is a large voter turnout.
America is learning. Of course, with the cheating and the blatant favoritism on the democratic side, amazingly the GOP seems more on the ball this time. So a lot of people are running to Trump.
Brainfreeze
Member
Ancedotally, around me, she has been. Combination of her being a woman, her long past of controversies/ distrust, and people disappointed in Obama.
People who I knew as radically Obama are now leaning Trump, because they want change. She would have worked better as a post-republican candidate, rather than a continuation of a democrat candidate, IMO. She's the embodiment of establishment.
I think it's possible Bernie would do better against Trump, as he sort of invalidates a lot of Trump's anti-establishment votes and forces people to focus on the issues more.
The question for moderates becomes whether Trump is more polarizing than Clinton. I think he is, and I think he will drive enough people to vote Clinton just to avoid him for the Dem's to win. But anything could happen and anyone who think that Trump is a non issue and we're out of the woods already is overconfident.
Brainfreeze
Member
Honestly, I think part of it is to drive home how he's not bought. He's real and different and new. No politician could get away with what he's saying, and that makes his position all the more clear, and that's what people want, someone in that position.
Of course, some of the people support him for those views. But many support him because of the simple ability to express them confidently, regardless of the ideas themselves. It releases a lot of frustration.
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