Super Tuesday 2016 |OT| The Final Incursion is a double Incursion (Mar 5-15 contests)

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S

Steel

Banned
Voysa Reezun said:
This Super Tuesday wasn't as fun as 2008. Actually, the anticipation was more fun than anything else. Cruz won two of his five or six "firewall states," Rubio will only win a state or two, neither of them big delegate gets, and Trump stays on target to hit 1,237 straight up. I'm hoping Kasich can win in VT just so he can claim a victory and be emboldened to stay in, but yeah, there wasn't enough craziness tonight.
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It would've been great to watch if Cruz had somehow lost Texas. But, eh.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
boiled goose said:
I think it would just give more free media to the GOP.

Seems like it will be Hillary 7 vs Bernie 4....

Not bad.... GAF was predicting a Hillary sweep and Hillary domination. The race is still alive IMO.

Bernie winning NH, Colorado, MN is a good look for the general. Hillary winning the South is meh. Not gonna help in the general.
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Again, this is not a race to 50 states plus the territories! (And it's actually 8 to 4, Hillary won American Samoa's caucus). This is about delegates. Think of them like the electoral college.

Who would you say did better in the following scenario:

Candidate A wins California with 55 electoral votes.

Candidate B wins Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

In that situation, Candidate A is still ahead because the wins were worth more of the things that matter.

The things that matter in a primary are delegates. Not the number of states you carry. Not where the states are located. But the number of delegates you are awarded in each state. These are awarded proportionally. You get 60% of the vote, you get around 60% of the delegates.

Hillary now has a lead of nearly 210 pledged delegates over Bernie.

All of his wins tonight are effectively wiped out by the number of delegates Hillary will net from Georgia. The delegates he netted in Vermont, Colorado, Oklahoma and Minnesota will be effectively reduced to a 0 net gain just because of Hillary's margin in one state.
 
M

Miletius

Member
TyrantII said:
Hillary can focus on the GOP and stop spending money in the Primary

Bernie can put the full force of his organization behind Dems and downticket races that will be up for grabs if Cruz/Trump make it. Remember, turning the Senate means up to 4 liberal SCOTUS picks.

Party can rally around a singular message and won't be duplicating effort for each candidate
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I'd argue that they can do that more effectively by keeping people engaged. One way to do that is to continue the campaign and keep the Democrats in the news. As soon as Bernie drops out so does any coverage Hillary will get until the convention, as her attacking Trump has nothing on the fist fight between Ted, Donald and Polo going on right now.

Unlike the Republican race, which has had a destructive effect, the Democratic race has mostly collegial (with a few exceptions). More exposure is good, it keeps people engaged in the process. And then when the pivot to November happens, it'll happen as a natural consequence of a primary season wrapping up rather than having a 4 month break in between.

I'm not saying Bernie should blow his money and fight tooth and nail anymore. But he ought to stay in the race, try to rack up delegates where he can and keep the Democratic primary in the news.
 
C

catmincer

Member
adam387 said:
Again, this is not a race to 50 states plus the territories! (And it's actually 8 to 4, Hillary won American Samoa's caucus). This is about delegates. Think of them like the electoral college.

Who would you say did better in the following scenario:

Candidate A wins California with 55 electoral votes.

Candidate B wins Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraspka, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

In that situation, Candidate A is still ahead because the wins were worth more of the things that matter.

The things that matter in a primary are delegates. Not the number of states you carry. Not where the states are located. But the number of delegates you are awarded in each state. These are awarded proportionally. You get 60% of the vote, you get around 60% of the delegates.

Hillary now has a lead of nearly 210 pledged delegates over Bernie.

All of his wins tonight are effectively wiped out by the number of delegates Hillary will net from Georgia. The delegates he netted in Vermont, Colorado, Oklahoma and Minnesota will be effectively reduced to a 0 net gain just because of Hillary's margin in one state.
Click to expand...

Thank you! I get people want Bernie to win but it's not feasible. This explains why.
 
C

CDX

Member
jgwhiteus said:
Man, what a mess with the AP / N.Y. Times reporting - must have crossed wires somewhere. But yeah, looks like it got called for Hillary.
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NY Times now says Hillary won it again, when just before it was listed as Sanders.

It seems someone at the NY Times made a little mistake and marked it for Sanders. But now it's back as Hillary's win like almost every other network is saying.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
CDX said:
NY Times now says Hillary won it again, when just before it was listed as Sanders.

It seems someone at the NY Times made a little mistake and marked it for Sanders. But now it's back as Hillary's win like almost every other network is saying.
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This is why you don't let the intern press the button :lol
 
T

The Albatross

Member
Codeblue said:
I think the point was that those states will never be blue. It doesn't matter how big she wins there, she's going to lose them in the general.
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WHile the electoral college ultimately decides, you also don't want an electoral college winner to perform poorly in the popular vote. Clinton is undoubtedly stronger in those red states than Sanders is, and if Sanders gets trounced in every red state, but performs moderately well in a handful of key electoral college states that push blue (NY, California, Illinois), it makes for a less decisive victory on the night of the general election.

Plus, momentum builds when you win a state even when you don't have a chance in the general election. Trump gave his victory speech tonight just after Massachusetts decisively went to him, and while he will be trounced in Massachusetts in the general election, it's still noteworthy for him to win a state so decisively.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
MA win is actually pretty big for Clinton.

The story tonight for me is how badly Sanders got pummeled in the Clinton states overall. It's just ugly. He has good wins but they're still all on the "Lily White" state list. He hasn't improved his narrative at all. There's no need for him to drop out now (if he can somehow close the delegate gap through the 15th), but I hope reality starts to set in a bit. At minimum, perhaps stop fleecing poor college kids for their cash as much? The testimonials of desperation donations on Reddit and Twitter make me sad.
 
E

enzo_gt

tagged by Blackace
Cenk acting like it's not a big win for Hillary tonight?

Anything other than a unanimous loss is a win for Bernie!
 
S

Slayven

Member
Hate this spin of "the south doesn't matter, why the get to vote in the primaries anyway?"


Cause god forbid every democrat gets a voice in who represents them.

enzo_gt said:
Cenk acting like it's not a big win for Hillary tonight?

Anything other than a unanimous loss is a win for Bernie!
Click to expand...
According to the light
 
D

Deleted member 13876

Unconfirmed Member
Miletius said:
I'd argue that they can do that more effectively by keeping people engaged. One way to do that is to continue the campaign and keep the Democrats in the news. As soon as Bernie drops out so does any coverage Hillary will get until the convention, as her attacking Trump has nothing on the fist fight between Ted, Donald and Polo going on right now.

Unlike the Republican race, which has had a destructive effect, the Democratic race has mostly collegial (with a few exceptions). More exposure is good, it keeps people engaged in the process. And then when the pivot to November happens, it'll happen as a natural consequence of a primary season wrapping up rather than having a 4 month break in between.

I'm not saying Bernie should blow his money and fight tooth and nail anymore. But he ought to stay in the race, try to rack up delegates where he can and keep the Democratic primary in the news.
Click to expand...

I think that is a good point actually. Especially since the Trump show will continue to dominate the airwaves.
 
A

Ashodin

Member
Bernie did a lot better than expected, Hillary did a lot better than expected in the South.

Now the narrative is for Bernie to campaign hard in the states that are more favorable to him, he's narrowed and overcame polls before, he can do it again!
 
V

Volimar

Member
kquXpy8.jpg
 
M

Miles X

Member
Alcander said:
The delegate math they just laid out on CNN makes a Sanders win seem nearly impossible. I've been hearing that a lot recently, but hadn't really seen it mapped out. Wolf working hard to spin it as a race, though.
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Those super delegates are not shifting at the end, and out of the 15 states to vote so far, Sanders has come away with more delegates in only one state.

And even then, that's 5 delegates. That doesn't offset the biggest gap (Texas) 100+ (Likely a 130+ lead at the end.
 
H

hawk2025

Member
Slayven said:
Hate this spin of "the south doesn't matter, why the get to vote in the primaries anyway?"


Cause god forbid every democrat gets a voice in who represents them.


According to the light
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's a bad look spin.


I suppose it's.....



Pragmatic, though. :)
 
M

Mr. RPG

Member
Could you guys please stop trying to instigate fights and discourage other people from speaking?

This happens in every primary thread and no one wants to call it out. I'm tired of it.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Ashodin said:
Bernie did a lot better than expected, Hillary did a lot better than expected in the South.

Now the narrative is for Bernie to campaign hard in the states that are more favorable to him, he's narrowed and overcame polls before, he can do it again!
Click to expand...

Bernie fell further behind today. He's not done, but he's not doing well enough.

Cruz on my TV lying again.
 
B

boiled goose

good with gravy
adam387 said:
Again, this is not a race to 50 states plus the territories! (And it's actually 8 to 4, Hillary won American Samoa's caucus). This is about delegates. Think of them like the electoral college.

Who would you say did better in the following scenario:

Candidate A wins California with 55 electoral votes.

Candidate B wins Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.

In that situation, Candidate A is still ahead because the wins were worth more of the things that matter.

The things that matter in a primary are delegates. Not the number of states you carry. Not where the states are located. But the number of delegates you are awarded in each state. These are awarded proportionally. You get 60% of the vote, you get around 60% of the delegates.

Hillary now has a lead of nearly 210 pledged delegates over Bernie.

All of his wins tonight are effectively wiped out by the number of delegates Hillary will net from Georgia. The delegates he netted in Vermont, Colorado, Oklahoma and Minnesota will be effectively reduced to a 0 net gain just because of Hillary's margin in one state.
Click to expand...

Im not talking about the primary, was talking about the general vs republicans.

To be fair.
Bernie has NH, colorado.
Hillary has won Virginia, Nevada

Iowa a tie.

With 7-4 for super tuesday... this is was not a bad night for Sanders to be honest. MA was a loss, but close enough to not be a knockout blow.
 
Velcro Fly

Velcro Fly

Member
Obama was ahead at this point by less and had far broader appeal overall than Bernie.

It isn't over because he has money and he doesn't want to disappoint people by dropping out.

But at this point we've gone from viable alternative to token resistance.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
you wanna know why Democrats in the South went with Hillary?

because they don't want a Republican President, that's why

they live under Republican Governors and Republican Senators then get screwed over the Electoral College

what do they have left? The Primaries and picking a "Winner" instead of a "Loser"
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
Prodigal Son said:
lol

No one was arguing that he has a chance now. Relax.

I was just expressing the fact that Massachusetts wasn't a guaranteed state for Sanders.


EDIT:

A)This state's victory is a guarantee for Sanders.
B) No it wasn't.
A) Yeah but he has no chance!

Come on HillGAF.
Click to expand...

Honestly Bernie did better than I expected tonight

He won Oklahoma Vermont Colorado and minnesota

I'm a bit disappointed in mass though
 
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