February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th

ethomaz said:
Maybe in lived in a age that people did got better playing against humans.

Tutorial is not suppose to teach you how to play against others lol it just to learn the basics.
Training is to you get the right timing for the moves/combo.. it is not supposed to teach you how to get good.

Play the dam game to get good... casual or competitive.
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MK has shown how to make a fighting game appealing to the masses. And that includes many modes and features designed for "fun" rather than competition... story modes, challenge towers, etc.

Your description of the SF5 package is precisely why the game remains in a very specific core niche.
 
ethomaz said:
It is dumb how people is over sensitive with a game that plays the best you can find in a fighting game... and that is the most important part of it... the others features are only not needed add-one.
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This is a non-factor. How well something plays is not a "rule of the universe", Smash and MK and KI all play perfectly well, and for some/many/most people they play better than/as well as SFV. For some people Melee (a decade's old game) plays better than SFV.

But some of these games not only play exceptionally well but offer A LOT more content and stuff to do with said exceptional mechanics.
 
CosmicQueso said:
MK has shown how to make a fighting game appealing to the masses. And that includes many modes and features designed for "fun" rather than competition... story modes, challenge towers, etc.

Your description of the SF5 package is precisely why the game remains in a very specific core niche.
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That is why old MK was so amazing... you need to learn and discover how to do the fatalities at your own work.

Amazing old days.

Vena said:
This is a non-factor. How well something plays is not a "rule of the universe", Smash and MK and KI all play perfectly well, and for some/many/most people they play better than/as well as SFV. For some people Melee (a decade's old game) plays better than SFV.

But some of these games not only play exceptionally well but offer A LOT more content and stuff to do with said exceptional mechanics.
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I'm casual player.

I stopped to play games like MK because these features.

Like I said maybe I loved the old way.
 
CosmicQueso said:
So you think that the current training mode is adequate so a new person to the series can run through that and be ready to compete online and have a good time doing so?

I find this very hard to believe.
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It's not.

But since we're on the subject of training mode talk, I've played quite a few fighting games over the years from Smash to MK to KI to Guilty Gear.

Not a single one features a tutorial mode that I would consider half way decent, nor one that prepares you for online. None are comprehensive enough to teach you the fundamentals of a fighting game and most of them are largely masquerading as elaborate "teach the controls and specials." I agree with Etho in that going after the training mode as a complaint just doesn't seem valid to me unless we're talking about strictly checking off the boxes on a list. SFV has content problems for the market at launch, it had poor WOM and user reviews and it had a whole variety of factors going against it. But training mode/trials mode? That's not one.

SFIV's trial mode was hot garbage. I'm already dreading the trials mode for SFV because I'm sure Capcom, like most other FG developers, will forsake actually coming up with proper tools to teach beginners and rather focus on checking it off the list to pad the content.

Edit: What Capcom should do is integrate their video series into the game. As that's going to be much better at teaching beginners then anything they can come up with.
 
So, in the end, The Division outsold Watch Dogs.

OH MY GOD LOL.

1.5 million is a given in March NPD :p maybe even 2 million LMAO!
 
https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/707684762949967872

CdIziqQWwAALLed.jpg:large
 
slavesnyder said:
No matter if you love or hate the Division, it's a sign that new IPs can be successful. That's good news.
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It's incredible that the top 3 fastest selling new IP are from within the past 3 years, with Destiny, Division, and Watch Dogs. Consumers want something new, and hopefully with these results and MS and Sony releasing new IP this year, the "risk" factor is lowered for green lighting new IP.

This generation is finally getting unique experiences.
 
The Division is breaking records. Ubisoft announced today that its third-person action-RPG has sold more copies in its first 24 hours than any game in Ubisoft’s history. Total digital full game sales of The Division also set new, single-day company records across PC, Xbox One, PS4.
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Ubisoft noobs using "sales" instead of the far more powerful and useful MAU.
 
Welfare said:
It's incredible that the top 3 fastest selling new IP are from within the past 3 years, with Destiny, Division, and Watch Dogs. Consumers want something new, and hopefully with these results and MS and Sony releasing new IP this year, the "risk" factor is lowered for green lighting new IP.

This generation is finally getting unique experiences.
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It is kind of mind boggling publishers don' realise this.
 
Ray Down said:
Hope it bodes well for QB and Horizon.

And whatever Bend next game is.
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I think the potential is there for Horizon to be a big one. It is dinosaur robots with a seemingly awesome female protagonist. It just needs to be a great/amazing game with decent marketing. It will sell itself from that point.

Besides, Sony was talking about making it big with merchandise and all that stuff anyway. The IP kinda has to be a big commercial success in order to justify it.
 
Welfare said:
It's incredible that the top 3 fastest selling new IP are from within the past 3 years, with Destiny, Division, and Watch Dogs. Consumers want something new, and hopefully with these results and MS and Sony releasing new IP this year, the "risk" factor is lowered for green lighting new IP.

This generation is finally getting unique experiences.
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I believe It is more related front load sales... this gen sells more day one than previous gens.
 
theprodigy said:
Spla-

wait shit, that's *also* a shooter!
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:P

Hmm, that does make me think you could go even deeper by saying it applies to shooters with multiplayer.

It makes sense though. The shooter genre has been fairly stagnant (yet popular) over the years. Adding RPG elements, MMO elements, or literally some fresh paint can liven it up and bring about the results we have been seeing.
 
DriftingSpirit said:
Granted, three of the top four are shooters. I wonder if this just applies to games in the shooter market or if it does actually apply to all new IP in general.
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Fair point.
We need a new IP in a classic genre that's not shooters but that really has mass appeal.
Waifu Simulator, Sofa Quiz, Fish-with-human-head-interaction or a mixture of those.
 
slavesnyder said:
No matter if you love or hate the Division, it's a sign that new IPs can be successful. That's good news.
Click to expand...

If only this was the lesson that UbiSoft would actually take from this success...

Alas it is not.

slavesnyder said:
Fair point.
We need a new IP in a classic genre that's not shooters but that really has mass appeal.
Waifu Simulator, Sofa Quiz, Fish-with-human-head-interaction or a mixture of those.
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Oh don't you worry Snyder its coming

Vxu6kxR.gif


Ray Down said:
You will become a MAU Master some day.
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Would that make Cosmic a MAUM?

CosmicQueso said:
I hear what you're saying, but this is highly subjective, no? And for the mass market, a game like the Division is much more approachable than a game like SF5 is.

SF5 is a game hypertargeted at its own core audience. So much so that it launched in a bare bones state just so that a tournament series that a vast majority of game consumers have never heard of could launch on time. So much so that many features on the main menu are still not selectable by people who pay $60 for the game.

Had they made a "Capcom Cup Edition" or something, just with the bare bones content they've launched with, along with some messaging stating that it wasn't the full release, maybe it's a different conversation. But they launched it with the name SF5, and in the state they did.

SF5 may be a blast to play over and over if one is already versed in how SF works. But anyone who may be new to the series will instantly be overwhelmed. There's no training mode yet, no challenge tower... you're just thrown into matches having no idea how the mechanics of the specials even work. How could one expect that game to find a mass audience when it doesn't do anything to be attractive to the mass market?
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You're right it is subjective. I guess I'm just slowly realizing my tastes are diverging more and more form mainstream gaming. My fear stems from the idea that as more and more games that I don't like meet with massive success that it will lead to a decline in the games I do. Maybe that's just an unreasonable fear though I dont know. But what I do know is that it is scary when almost every game you enjoy is suddenly becoming more and more niche. Its such an abrupt shift for me over even last gen that I'm frankly surprised by it.

But 6 million people played the beta and the response to that beta was generally quite positive. That's not done through marketing. Getting people to try the beta might be, but once they do, either they like it or they don't, right? There's something here that people seem to be liking.
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See that's the thing just because a game is appealing in short doses doesnt mean it has the content or gameplay variety to maintain its appeal over the course of its campaign or actively supported lifetime. The beta was already getting extremely repetetive for those who were trying to do all the content available and my suspicion is that people will become significantly less thrilled with the grind as they delve further and further into the game. But I could certainly be wrong.

I love spreadsheet sport sims and turn based WW2 wargames like those Slitherine makes. I'm positive about the industry because those things keep getting made. It's the most diverse market ever. But what is no longer a diverse market is the fucking packaged games market. Release count is 200 games. Most of those are going to be mass market, Walmart shelf friendly. That's just how it is these days. The packaged market is not where one should go to see the diversity of the interactive entertainment industry in 2016.
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See this is the part that scares me. That my interests will only be served by digital only releases in the future if at all. That my interests, thanks to their being for a smaller audience, will receive less and less releases as time goes on. Again maybe I'm just completely misreading the market here. That could very well be the case but that doesnt change the fact that in what appears to be a very short time (~3 years) the sorts of games that I enjoy are suddenly small beans and no longer align with the market at all.


But why would it chart? Again, it's a game targeted at a very specific niche audience. If they did their planning right, sales from that niche should provide an expected return and all is right in the world. A game does not have to chart to be successful, and a game not charting should have no impact on how someone who likes that game views the industry.

The fact enough audience exists that making a game like that is an appealing venture for the company making it says a lot of good things about the state of the market. But Joe Schmo Walmart shopper in the rust belt isn't going to be attracted to a game like that. What are you gonna do.
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I cant do anything. It was meant as another example of my particular gaming tastes becoming less and less relevant. The profitability of the game was never the concern relevance in the current market and what that means for future releases in its ilk was. It just feels like my taste in games is becoming less and less relevant as time goes on and that truly scares me as I don't know what that means for the future. Whether games that appeal to me will continue to decrease in market relevance, whether their budgets and scope would suffer as a result or even whether they will continue to be made. Suddenly these are all questions I'm confronted with and frankly I'm struggling with it at the moment.
 
Welfare said:
It's incredible that the top 3 fastest selling new IP are from within the past 3 years, with Destiny, Division, and Watch Dogs. Consumers want something new, and hopefully with these results and MS and Sony releasing new IP this year, the "risk" factor is lowered for green lighting new IP.

This generation is finally getting unique experiences.
Click to expand...

Unique is not the word I'd use. Undertale, Prune, Sunset (not overdrive), Beginner's Guide, The Binding of Isaac...those are unique. Corporate shooter #412, not so much.



RexNovis said:
See this is the part that scares me. That my interests will only be served by digital only releases in the future if at all. That my interests, thanks to their being for a smaller audience, will receive less and less releases as time goes on. Again maybe I'm just completely misreading the market here. That could very well be the case but that doesnt change the fact that in what appears to be a very short time (~3 years) the sorts of games that I enjoy are suddenly small beans and no longer align with the market at all.

I cant do anything. It was meant as another example of my particular gaming tastes becoming less and less relevant. The profitability of the game was never the concern relevance in the current market and what that means for future releases in its ilk was. It just feels like my taste in games is becoming less and less relevant as time goes on and that truly scares me as I don't know what that means for the future. Whether games that appeal to me will continue to decrease in market relevance, whether their budgets and scope would suffer as a result or even whether they will continue to be made. Suddenly these are all questions I'm confronted with and frankly I'm struggling with it at the moment.
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I know the feeling. I self medicate with gaming like others do with cigarettes or gambling or drinking; so it is important to me. And seeing certain properties utterly fail is disheartening, but you cannot fight the tide. My special games include things like GTA IV, Mario Galaxy 1&2, Valkyrie Chronicles, New Vegas, Borderlands 2, Final Fantasy 13, and a few more obscure ones like Etrian Odyssey IV. The big budget ones with the exception of BL2 were not well received and either did not have sequels or the sequels were different enough that I really didn't like them.

It would make me angry when FFXIII was labelled garbage or how the driving in gtaiv was total shit or how Mario World was sooooo much better than Galaxy. And yeah, I trace that back to wanting to have more of those experiences and wanting more people to like what I like, with the added fear that I might not have a regular supply of suitable game medication.

Gaf has been good for me in that I've learned things about myself and this niche part of the world, I don't regret my time here at all. Lol, no idea where I'm going with this...

Gunslinger said:
Ffxiv will go down in history as how to successfully turn around a complete failure. It now has lot of active sub imo. First p2p success in a post WoW world. Where as big budget p2p like swtor and ESO failed miserably swtor moreso imo.
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Pretty sure SWTOR is a huge money spinner.
 
Worth noting Division broke the record for Digital sales for Ubisoft. Curious how that will be reflected in the NPD actuals. We are going to see more and more of that this year.

Also curious the breakdown between America and Europe
 
QaaQer said:
Unique is not the word I'd use. Undertale, Prune, Sunset (not overdrive), Beginner's Guide, The Binding of Isaac...those are unique. Corporate shooter #412, not so much.
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Couldn't agree more.


I know the feeling. I self medicate with gaming like others do with cigarettes or gambling or drinking; so it is important to me. And seeing certain properties utterly fail is disheartening, but you cannot fight the tide. My special games include things like GTA IV, Mario Galaxy 1&2, Valkyrie Chronicles, New Vegas, Borderlands 2, Final Fantasy 13, and a few more obscure ones like Etrian Odyssey IV. The big budget ones with the exception of BL2 were not well received and either did not have sequels or the sequels were different enough that I really didn't like them.

It would make me angry when FFXIII was labelled garbage or how the driving in gtaiv was total shit or how Mario World was sooooo much better than Galaxy. And yeah, I trace that back to wanting to have more of those experiences and wanting more people to like what I like, with the added fear that I might not have a regular supply of suitable game medication.

Gaf has been good for me in that I've learned things about myself and this niche part of the world, I don't regret my time here at all. Lol, no idea where I'm going with this...
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I get ya man. Its just something I think I need to wrestle with. Its sorta been like a lethargic epiphany for me thus far this gen haha.

Also Etrian Odyssey IV is awesome and was one of my Games of the Year. Always nice to meet other fans! But yea cheers for the response I understand what you were getting at and its appreciated.

ZopTna4.gif
 
Obliterator said:
Worth noting Division broke the record for Digital sales for Ubisoft. Curious how that will be reflected in the NPD actuals. We are going to see more and more of that this year.

Also curious the breakdown between America and Europe
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Big mainstream AAA games that do well digitally also should realistically do well at retail.

Games will continue to break digital records over the next few years, I think.
 
RexNovis said:
Couldn't agree more.




I get ya man. Its just something I think I need to wrestle with. Its sorta been like a lethargic epiphany for me thus far this gen haha.

Also Etrian Odyssey IV is awesome and was one of my Games of the Year. Always nice to meet other fans! But yea cheers for the response I understand what you were getting at and its appreciated.

ZopTna4.gif
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*thumbs up*

One of the best 3DS titles and one of the few that I actually enjoyed the dual screen functionality on.
 
Nightengale said:
Big mainstream AAA games that do well digitally also should realistically do well at retail.

Games will continue to break digital records over the next few years, I think.
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Oh no doubt, it will do huge at retail. But we are slowly climbing into an area where we are actually going to see less and less of what games are really performing at using just NPD and retail. Just look at the past 6 months how many Titles / Pubs have had "best digital rates" ever. And thats going to keep climbing substantially.

Just interesting
 
Obliterator said:
Oh no doubt, it will do huge at retail. But we are slowly climbing into an area where we are actually going to see less and less of what games are really performing at using just NPD and retail. Just look at the past 6 months how many Titles / Pubs have had "best digital rates" ever. And thats going to keep climbing substantially.

Just interesting
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NPD stated they were working on ways to reliably track and report digital sales and that it would be coming sometime in the near future. Albeit that was a while back. I figured they might start this year but January NPD came and went without it.
 
RexNovis said:
NPD stated they were working on ways to reliably track and report digital sales and that it would be coming sometime in the near future. Albeit that was a while back. I figured they might start this year but January NPD came and went without it.
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That would be really great and I hope they make it happen. Because as gaming digital grows sales will become harder to actually have the full picture. If NPD can get Digital as well as retail that would be flat out amazing
 
I believe it was via polling users in their consumer panel on what they bought each month and estimating the sales from that. That particular method would be way less accurate on a game-by-game basis, but probably would be pretty good for a gross evaluation of the digital market. Think that's what they're using for their quarterly reports on gross digital sales, too.
 
donny2112 said:
I believe it was via polling users in their consumer panel on what they bought each month and estimating the sales from that. That particular method would be way less accurate on a game-by-game basis, but probably would be pretty good for a gross evaluation of the digital market. Think that's what they're using for their quarterly reports on gross digital sales, too.
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That seems like it would be a bad way to estimate digital sales figures. I don't see how that could possibly be accurate enough. Maybe I'm underestimating how representative their sample is though.
 
RexNovis said:
I'm not sure I want to live in a world where The Division breaks sales records and Street Fighter bombs. This scenario is like a microcosm of everything I hate about modern game development. *sigh* these are dark times indeed.
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i don't want to live in a world where Ubisoft exist and Tekken is the superior fighting game
 
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