I have always said that the scariest thing about Trump is his ability to appeal to blue collar workers (the type of people who typically vote Democrat).
Source: CBS / Penn Live
Source: CBS / Penn Live
CBS: 46,000 Pennsylvania Democrats have switched to Republican due to Trump
- Thread starter Oddduck
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shortsFortallPeople
Banned
but how much of this is primary trolling and how much is a sincere change of parties?
DragonSworne
Banned
This is the reason why Bernie matches up better against Trump than Hillary does. Blue collar states are still competitive if Bernie is on the ticket.
Bluekaveli
Member
That's a damn hefty number.
JesseEwiak
Member
Most of those people were already voting Republican in the Presidential race.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
We are all going to die.
you dont need to switch parties to vote republican in most states. 91k democrats voted for Republican candidates in the Michigan primaries without switching parties.
Pretty much, either they trolling or they finally seeing someone they really like. Either way disgusting
cpp_is_king
Member
As a moderate, I've known all along this was going to happen, but everyone with their tunnel vision keeps saying "No way democrats would switch to Trump". Well, here it is.
Elements of nationalism appeal to certain groups of people that cross party boundaries, and Trump can definitely win some of those people. It's not a question of "if", but of "how many". In states like Michigan that have a heavy blue collar presence, the answer is going to be "a lot".
Elements of nationalism appeal to certain groups of people that cross party boundaries, and Trump can definitely win some of those people. It's not a question of "if", but of "how many". In states like Michigan that have a heavy blue collar presence, the answer is going to be "a lot".
D
Deleted member 20415
Unconfirmed Member
Right, but where in PA is this happening? The center of the state? Then it won't matter, Philly and Pittsburgh will carry the state vote.
Think that context is needed before panic sets in.
Come on PA, don't fuck this up.
Think that context is needed before panic sets in.
Come on PA, don't fuck this up.
That reads like they're doing so in order to ensure he's the nominee, it doesn't - at least, how it's phrased here - suggest they want him to be the eventual president.
It depends whether you read "place in the general election" as "being a candidate in the general election" or "the position you finish in the general election"
JesseEwiak
Member
So explain the polls in Michigan showing Hillary up by 15 over Trump?
NealMcCauley
Member
That's my guess too, like Kim Davis being a lifelong Democrat before switching over once her infamy ended.
It's mostly sincere voting.
Could it be that they are switching to republican to vote for trump just because they know there is no way he wins the general election? Like they know either democrat will beat trump so by ensuring he gets the nomination there is no way a republican can become president? That's the only way I can rationalize people voting for trump.
There's no way of knowing this, but I'd be curious to see how many of these people are residual registered-Ds, and may not actually vote Democratic for presidential elections.
If this is people that are part of the actual Democratic coalition that won PA for Obama in 2012, that's worrying. If these are people who never bothered to change their registration to Republican even though they've been voting Republican, that's more like, whatever.
Unfortunately, there's no way to know, and it could be a bit of column A, a bit of column B.
If this is people that are part of the actual Democratic coalition that won PA for Obama in 2012, that's worrying. If these are people who never bothered to change their registration to Republican even though they've been voting Republican, that's more like, whatever.
Unfortunately, there's no way to know, and it could be a bit of column A, a bit of column B.
shortsFortallPeople
Banned
I can't speak to PA but I couldn't even vote in the FL primaries because I was an independent. Not for R or D, it didn't matter
cpp_is_king
Member
I'll let the polls speak for themselves. Hopefully we can agree that the polls today are not the polls we will see in November, and that he hasn't even started trying to win most democrats yet.
Hillary was up on Sanders by 20 pts and lost by 2. So Hill is actually down by 7 to Trump.
Literally no flaws in my calculations.
We are all going to die.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
What about them? There's never been an actual election between them so...
Running an establishment candidate this year is suicide
Bruce Springsteen
Member
The polls were horribly inaccurate
I don't really get this -- yes, there's never been an election, but we're getting to the point where it's looking like it's a Trump v. Hillary matchup, both candidates are pretty well known to the general public compared to where we would be at this point in the cycle if the frontrunners were lesser-known entities who hadn't been in the public eye for 20 years, and Hillary is ahead of Trump by huge margins in states that he would need to win.
This isn't about Hillary vs. Bernie in Michigan.
Delusibeta
Banned
It's worthwhile raising the lessons taught by the British pollsters over last year's general election: people who vote for right-wing parties tend to be less likely to answer your poll. Or, in other words: beware of shy
Bingo. PA has a lot of that. As much as it's a white whale for the Republicans in the presidential elections, it's also a white whale for Dems at the state level, because Dems have a registration advantage in a lot of distracts that really amounts to old ex-unionists who haven't voted Democrat in 30 years.
We have the favorability numbers. They're playing out in polling.
That's not really the case in American polling, at least not in the last few cycles. GE polling aggregates were generally right. They may have underestimated left-wing support.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
I'm just gonna believe that Trump's is is gonna become even more unfavorable the further we get into this, when the real debates start happening, and attack ads/everything else starts popping off left and right between dem's and repb's. You can't tell me otherwise!
JesseEwiak
Member
This may be true in the UK, but this simply hasn't been true in the US at all. The crappiness in the polls in the past few years is far more connected to a general lack of ability to contact enough good voters and being able to model midterm turnout, not a shy Tory effect. Also, the general election polls in 2012 were pretty dead on.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
My point was that I think he was trying to reference the Michigan polls showing Hillary up on Bernie Sanders, not a hypothetical matchup of Clinton vs. Trump in a general election.
The issue is coming in when you can't actually call people on cell phones and such.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Dems outnumber GOP by 1.2 million in PA.
PA is also one of those states where lot more registered Dems vote R, all Trump is doing is causing those Reagan democrats who never bothered switching to switch R.
PA is also one of those states where lot more registered Dems vote R, all Trump is doing is causing those Reagan democrats who never bothered switching to switch R.
BennyBlanco
aka IMurRIVAL69
If Republicans can take PA in the general it would be absolutely huge.
No, he wasn't, he was talking about a hypothetical matchup between Hillary vs. Trump.
They've been pretending it's a competitive state for decades.
It's Lucy and the Football at this point.
Trump is bizarrobama. Worrying trends for the Dems. Independents like Hillary less than they did in 2008 (but they also dislike Trump even more), but one thing's for sure - this race is going to be so very dirty.
Both Sanders and Clinton also made a huge statement by being pro-immigration from yesterday's debate, it'll be interesting to see how that affects voter turnout...
Both Sanders and Clinton also made a huge statement by being pro-immigration from yesterday's debate, it'll be interesting to see how that affects voter turnout...
AbsolutBro
Member
Pennsylvania has closed primaries, meaning you can only vote for candidates in your declared political party.
Maybe if Philadelphia gets wiped off the face of the earth
Baron Aloha
A Shining Example
I don't think these are all primary trolls. Seems like too high of a number.
There were also some stories circulating towards the end of last year that Trump could get as much as 15-20% crossover support when matched up against Hillary in some states. A lot of folks wrote those off at the time, iirc.
I definitely think there is an air of truth to this. People don't trust Hillary on trade and Donald is telling them he will institute protectionist policies to keep jobs here.
There were also some stories circulating towards the end of last year that Trump could get as much as 15-20% crossover support when matched up against Hillary in some states. A lot of folks wrote those off at the time, iirc.
I definitely think there is an air of truth to this. People don't trust Hillary on trade and Donald is telling them he will institute protectionist policies to keep jobs here.
You do in Pennsylvania, which is what this story is talking about.
Its going to be a crazy general. The gop has slinging shit at trump ever since he became the front runner and nothing seems to be stopping or even slowing him down. I can't wait for the Convention
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