Macho Madness
Member
This is the best outcome. The most luxurious outcome. Steal it away from Big Don and drag this disaster fire of a party into the goddamn lava pits of hell.
Super Tuesday 4. I'm really feeling (The After Bern) March 22, 26 contests
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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say what? Bernie isn't going after these things.
boiled goose
good with gravy
You guys dont get it. These people wont be engaged unless someone like bernie represents their views. Maybe Bernie is a fad, but his supporters are still gonna be there. Next time around they will be over 30 years old and even more progressive people will be entering the electorate.
Bernie is no fad, he represents the future. We may just not be ready yet.
His TWO physical legs god damn it. The revolution will be televised. Fuck it, we'll do it live!
Democrats (rightly) prefer the Democrat - no surprise there.
I also think that the whole idea of 'superdelegates flocking to Bernie if he pulls close or ahead' is questionable at the very least. Even if he wins, superdelegates aren't going to support the guy who's admitted he's using the party for name recognition and money and nothing more. They're not going to support the guy who called for their most popular leader in decades to be primaried from the left, sued their national organization and spewed right-wing attacks at the frontrunner long after the math failed him. He could be up by more than 100 delegates and the supers probably still wouldn't support him, nor would I blame them for choosing not to.
What are Bernies views? Free everything? No wonder the entitled young are lapping it up.
I'm young btw.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
Their money, their choice. They don't see it as a lottery ticket; they just see it as supporting a candidate who represents their beliefs regardless of his chances. Its not always about a cost-benefit analysis.
🙃
balladofwindfishes
Member
His supporters are, and him being in the race just gets them riled up and out there spreading lies.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Bernie hasn't gone after emails at all.
Going after corruption and money in politics is good for the country. Exposing Hillary as a wall street, special interest shill and war hawk is fair game.
Money in politics undermining our democracy is by far the biggest issue facing our country today. I have believed this for about 10 years even before i knew who bernie was. I am engaged at the state level on this issue. Is putting it front and center good for the country? Hell yes.
If republicans keep congress is the mid term elections, then it suggests he's a fad and people aren't THAT interested in widespread change. To enable that type of change demands systematic dedication, and I don't think young democrats give a shit that much.
Hell the rhetoric that they may not vote Hillary suggests it's the fad that appeals and not the policy, since every GOP candidate has put on the platform to repeal everything Obama did
🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
2008 was an outlier. This graph is a few weeks old but still relatively current:
GWB was a huge anchor for the Repubs.
And_Gignac
Member
Yes. Free everything. Human rights like healthcare and education without going broke is "free everything".
This is a poor form of emotional and simplistic argumentation.
And Sanders is no fad. He is already the future of the Dems you like it or not.
boiled goose
good with gravy
wow... dat right wing framing.
I believe you are smarter than this. Not gonna bother if you don't want to have an honest conversation.
These young voters will only get older. If they don't keep voting it means they are disenfranchised.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
I'm convinced he won't get it
It's a two variable system tied to electoral college votes per state. 70% of the white male vote if turnout is 65% of all white men would probably do it. If instead white men turnout at 67% he could get by with more like 65% of the white male vote. If he gets white men to turnout at around 70% he's going to flip some swing states and make it incredibly close.
The traditional swing states are swing states specifically for this reason in fact. White male voter participation and consensus voting among that group is what can flip states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, etc.. Some have growing minority populations starting to firewall against that but there are other states that could also come into play. Illinois for example has a Republican governor largely elected on the support of white men outside Chicago.
We're nearing the end of the white male block controlling almost all major elections. Do think that there won't be a final death rattle before that grip on the American political landscape slips away entirely is being naive. There is a strong possibility that Donald Trump is the right candidate at the right time to capitalize on that sentiment.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Sorry, Bernie always talks about free tuition, he does know that tuition is a fraction of the cost of going to college right?
Has he ever cleared this up?
shortsFortallPeople
Banned
People said the same things about Ron Paul and his followers, too, though to be fair to Bernie he's actually winning a thing or two when compared to RP.
Skellig Gra
Member
Who is going to get it then?
No he isn't, his vision (partially) is though, it's just going to take a long time to get there. Right now what he is promising is a complete pipe dream. Free education is so far off.
I'd love if what he promises could become a reality, who wouldn't? It's just crazy though.
Except he isn't attacking Hillary's flaws. He's attacking NAFTA which is disingenuous, dangerous to America's role in the global economy, and pushing blue dog dems away from Clinton and towards Trump.
He also attacks Clinton for being dishonest when she is ethically comparable to him by fact checking services, just the target of a 30 year long GOP smear campaign.
The demonizes "establishment politics" when he's been a politician literally his entire professional life, the end result is fueling establishment hate that will only aid Donald Trump in the general election.
In short, he's campaigning like someone more focused on taking down Hillary Clinton than battle testing the party to better prepare it for a general election campaign.
He's never cleared up how his "free tuition" program is going to work, since the proposal is a funding match for states who choose to participate. Over half the country has Republican governors and a good number of them refused medicare/medicaid expansion when the federal government was going to give them ALL the money.
His proposals are pure fantasy. If they're the future of the democratic party then the democratic party is doomed to failure the second they get one of these candidates in office because they'll crash and burn within their first term and bake in a right leaning bias for a decade or more.
We all agree on healthcare, but so does the whole Democratic Party, so I don't really see that as a differentiating factor. Whenever we get into the weeds about it the conversation kind of degenerates into "if you don't support single-payer immediately then you kill babies." The fact that there are multiple types of universal healthcare systems, some of which are not single-payer but still have similar outcomes and are much closer to Obamacare in implementation, seems to then end the discussion immediately. So I'm throwing it in right at the top this time!
I am actually interested in the discussion of free education as a human right. Obviously America already gives everybody free education as a human right. Just, you know, only up through high school level. So the topic here really seems to be "free college is a human right." I'm not immediately opposed to that idea or anything but I'm not sure what makes college specifically the sticking point here. What is it about a college education versus a high school education that means that providing only a high school education is violating human rights? That seems a little arbitrary to me.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Issue by issue Americans are moving towards Bernie, that was never the case with Ron Paul. Ron Paul's supporters were the young "smart" republicans that didn't feel represented by their party.
I don't think Ron Paul was necessarily a fad, it's just that there is no one running that represents their views. Rand Paul was not his father. He pandered to the right.
John Dunbar
correct about everything
2008 was an outlier. This graph is a few weeks old but still relatively current:
GWB was a huge anchor for the Repubs.
how so? there was a drop because he was the incumbent, just like with the dems in 2012. other than that it looks rather steady, with trump's loonies now bringing it up.
And_Gignac
Member
unlike of Ron Paul, who only won 3 states, Bernie already has 11 (not a "thing or two") probably will win 45% of the overall delegates. This is the second most contested Dem election in a generation.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Washington Post had a great article out two days ago that puts this "white voters can make Trump competitive" myth to bed. A key tidbit:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...rtainly-never-be-elected-president-heres-why/
It wouldn't surprise me if there's, as you say, a "death rattle" among white male voters. But color me highly skeptical that it'll be sufficient enough to come anywhere near the kinds of margins needed to bring about a victory.
The GOP's voters seem apt to try this gambit, despite data showing that it's unlikely to bring victory. I'm happy to watch them try.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
We are talking about 2008, not 2004.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Isn't Bernie winning like 80% of the young vote?
And_Gignac
Member
The Obama coalition is split between Bernie and Hillary. The Obama coalition wasn't even formed during the primaries in 08.
However, Ron was like Bernie and Hillary (last time) in that the version of him that supporters carried around in their mind had little to do with the actual reality of him or his positions, and like a movie you haven't seen yet, allowed for unlimited optimism that it was going to be Citizen Kane, despite a three-time rewritten script, a Nickelback soundtrack and being repurposed as a Jaden Smith vehicle.
By the time Ron dropped out, the number of simple bullets defining him as a racist, homophobic old conspiratorial theist, would make Ted Cruz blush. He was NOTHING like the image people had of him, and was an opportunist carpetbagger to boot.
He was box office poison all along.
when they show up
John Dunbar
correct about everything
don't see how that has much do with bush, since the turnout is very much in line with pretty much every year on that chart. all that it means is that there was no candidate like obama or trump to draw people into the voting booth.
So he has 80% of those who will disappear at the next mid terms.
I thought I read just the other day on here that Utah could become a swing state if Trump is the Republican nominee.
That's simply shoddy work by the Washington Post. 2012 was the highest turnout among black voters in recent history, up from 2008 which itself was a massive spike. The reason for this is obvious. At the same time white voter participation was down in 2012 and down in 2008, a hangover form the GWB years.
If white voter turnout bounces back into the 67% or better range and black turnout slides back down 60% or below the margins in swing states are going to get far, far closer than Romney's run even before you factor in Trump's potentially greater appeal to independents.
I'm not saying he's going to win, likely to win, or even has a really good shot at winning, but McCain and Romney losing was basically a foregone conclusion for a multitude of reasons. Some of those (voting against the incumbent party/not voting out a sitting POTUS) are no longer beneficial to dems. Some of them (high minority enthusiasm and turnout) might recede. And some (anti-establishment sentiment) that we see in the primary might carry through into the general and massively backfire.
Trump losing is not a foregone conclusion. That view is how candidates like him win office in the first place. More than any other GOP candidate he can change the electoral college map, a map that is heavily in favor of the democratic party with clear "win" strategies already established.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I don't get this as a response to my claim.
These young voters will not be so young in 8 years.
The next round of young voters will be even more liberal.
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
You don't see the huge spike for democrats in 2008?
Obama was the candidate in 2008. We are talking about 2008 and the reason why it had a higher turnout for democrats than 2016. I am making the suggestion it was an outlier because of the sentiment surrounding George W. Bush, especially in the years of his second term.
gutter_trash
Banned
2000 was a close race.
2004 Bush used a war in progress to get re-elected, Kerry allowed himself to get Dukakissed
2008 Obama rode in a generational change + economic crash helped
2012 people wanted Obama again, Romney barely improved on McCain
2016, Republicans are divided and some voters will be a no show. Hillary will win, not by enthusiasms but as for not being a Republican
2004 Bush used a war in progress to get re-elected, Kerry allowed himself to get Dukakissed
2008 Obama rode in a generational change + economic crash helped
2012 people wanted Obama again, Romney barely improved on McCain
2016, Republicans are divided and some voters will be a no show. Hillary will win, not by enthusiasms but as for not being a Republican
Macho Madness
Member
What makes me think of Ron Paul is the constant determination that any loss is automatically a fraud:
... And probably even less likely to get out and vote.
shortsFortallPeople
Banned
i think it depends on whether we have 8 years of conservatives or liberals.
8 years of conservatives will sure as hell get people out to vote for the opposite. Just ask 2008 voters who were sick of Bush's bullshit and just watched the economy explode under his watch.
It doesn't make sense to assume they'd disappear with Bernie but Hilary is immune to this problem. It seems like a general Democrat problem that the whole party needs to solve, not just Bernie.
What makes me think of Ron Paul is the constant determination that any loss is automatically a fraud:
So so stupid, how would that even favour Hillary?!
boiled goose
good with gravy
Maybe..? If so, the important question is why?
If Bernie is a "fad" because the government increasingly fails to represent young people, then that is not really a fad. That is disenfranchisement.
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