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[TheBritishBear]

If you're a minority and vote for Sanders, you're basically white. Also, if you have to win 58% of the upcoming votes, and start winning states with 70-80%, you're toast anyway. Clinton is unstoppable, also the Bernie Bros are way too racist. Oh, and did you know poor republicans and Bernie Bros constantly vote against their own interests? So, Hail to the Queen, Baby!

The New York and California results will have to change up a lot. If he gets over 58% for these states, then Bernie could actually get the nomination.

Until then though, BernieBros and HillaryKnights gotta keep going at it. Politics!

I do want Bernie to win BTW. But I can accept Hillary getting the nomination, as much as I hate her political history.

 

[CassSept]

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

 

[metalslimer]

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

Outside of Michigan what surprise wins have there been? Unless you are going off of what people were saying before super Tuesday than I can agree but since then everything has played out pretty much in line with what people expect. We knew he was going to destroy all these caucuses for a month.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Outside of Michigan what surprise wins have there been? Unless you are going off of what people were saying before super Tuesday than I can agree but since then everything has played out pretty much in line with what people expect. We knew he was going to destroy all these caucuses for a month.

yeah. Everything has been predictable at this point and will be going forward now that we have enough voting patterns and exit poll data.

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 1h1 hour ago
Ronald Brownstein Retweeted Mark Murray
In cumulative analysis of 20 exit polls by POS, @HillaryClinton has won 65.6% of Democrats, just 36.9% of indies

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 1h1 hour ago
Great stats from @DavidChalian capture the @SenSanders challenge: on D side all big delegate prizes are diverse states, where he's struggled

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 2h2 hours ago
In remaining states whites in 08 D primary = 70% NY, 64% DE, 53% MD, 52% CA, 59% NJ, 57% NM: top @HillaryClinton targets #WesternSaturday

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 2h2 hours ago
In remaining states whites in 08 D primary: RI 85%, WV 96, KY 89, OR 85, MT 91, SD 89: top @SenSanders targets. Bubble: CT 82, PA 80, IN 78%

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 2h2 hours ago
Wins 4 @SenSanders on #WesternSaturday would extend his streak of taking smaller, mostly white states;but the biggest D prizes r all diverse

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 5h5 hours ago
Given pattern of white support @SenSanders should b strong in RI, WV, KY, OR, MT, NEB, SD + WA. But diverse states r big ones: CA, NY NJ etc

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 5h5 hours ago
Given demographic patterns thru early races @HillaryClinton should be favored in NY, MD, DEL, CA, NJ, NM. Tossups: PA/IN. CT a lean Bern?

Ronald Brownstein ‏@RonBrownstein 5h5 hours ago
Pattern worth noting as D calendar turns: @HillaryClinton has won whites 9/10 Southern states; @SenSanders won whites 8/10 non-south states

 

[And_Gignac]

Hawaii and Alaska are well known mostly white states. They even border Vermont, don't they?

 

[phanphare]

Hawaii and Alaska are well known mostly white states. They even border Vermont, don't they?

 

[noshten]

Hawaii and Alaska are well known mostly white states. They even border Vermont, don't they?

He also doesn't care about his wife just look what he said and did to her on stage, its good commentators on youtube are calling him out as well as non partizen sites like BNR

SNUB: Bernie Waves Off Wife Jane on National TV, Says Don’t Stand Next to Me

Bernie Sanders had a good election night (as we noted earlier), but this victory speech moment, caught on national television, is not a good look for him.

NOTE: Some hear Bernie saying “don’t stand there,” others hear “don’t stand next to me.” The arm gesture, however, is unmistakable.

http://bluenationreview.com/bernie-dont-stand-next-to-me/

 

[shinra-bansho]

Hawaii and Alaska are well known mostly white states. They even border Vermont, don't they?

I'm just going to use this because I can't be bothered looking up exits right now. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/KDK2016021101-table1.png
Of the 11 states with ~35%+ non-white voteshare he's won 1 - yesterday.
Of the 9 between 20-34% he won 3 - 1 yesterday.
Of the 12 less than or equal 19% he won 10.

Notably, with the exception of Michigan, his wins in >20% non-white states have all been caucuses.

He has done reasonably well with Hispanics in some states (NV,IL) while losing them handily in others (FL,AZ,TX).

He is losing black voters everywhere thus far. North and South. East and West.

Hawaii and Alaska don't change the nature of the contest in terms of demographic strengths and weaknesses.

 

[Boney]

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

Also an outsider but for what I've seen, Bernie polls better at nationals against republicans as well compared to Hillary. But It's obvious Bernie isn't actually a democrat, so the party and the electorate (and the media) are trying to drown him out. It's a hard chance to win when the whole system is against you, and it's actually been fascinating to watch how blatantly corrupt the whole political machine in the United States is. And just to clarify I'm not saying Bernie detractors don't have any ground to stand on, as political inclinations are obviously free for everybody, but the justifications for dismissing him in the written media is as empty as a tramp speech.

 

[Macho Madness]

 

[Jams775]

He also doesn't care about his wife just look what he said and did to her on stage, its good commentators on youtube are calling him out as well as non partizen sites like BNR

SNUB: Bernie Waves Off Wife Jane on National TV, Says Don’t Stand Next to Me



http://bluenationreview.com/bernie-dont-stand-next-to-me/

looks like she thought he was done with his speech but he wasn't so he told her to hold up?

 

[metalslimer]

looks like she thought he was done with his speech but he wasn't so he told her to hold up?

He's making fun of other people

 

[Jams775]

He's making fun of other people

Eh? I don't get it. Sorry I just woke up and still haven't had my second cup of coffee. I usually make myself not post before having fully woken up.

 

[noshten]

looks like she thought he was done with his speech but he wasn't so he told her to hold up?

My reaction was the same as yours I was referencing some reactions on this forum being similar to the youtube comments on that video

 

[Macho Madness]

Eh? I don't get it. Sorry I just woke up and still haven't had my second cup of coffee. I usually make myself not post before having fully woken up.

Las7 was saying in a sarcastic way that sites like BNR (a very pro-Hillary site) were reporting Bernie being rude to his wife and that's a dumb thing to do.

 

[kirblar]

Also an outsider but for what I've seen, Bernie polls better at nationals against republicans as well compared to Hillary. But It's obvious Bernie isn't actually a democrat, so the party and the electorate (and the media) are trying to drown him out. It's a hard chance to win when the whole system is against you, and it's actually been fascinating to watch how blatantly corrupt the whole political machine in the United States is. And just to clarify I'm not saying Bernie detractors don't have any ground to stand on, as political inclinations are obviously free for everybody, but the justifications for dismissing him in the written media is as empty as a tramp speech.

Bernie polls well nationally because he's "Generic Democrat" on the ballot to most people right now. It's why Rubio/Cruz/etc pol well on the GOP siide despite being awful candidates. The GOP is deliberately pulling their punches (as is Hillary, for different reasons) on his history in the hopes that the Democrats do them a huge favor and nominate him.

Bernie's been in politics/congress for most of his life. The only reason he's not part of the "establishment" is that he chose not to be a Democrat, and only became one in order to try and run for president. It should not shock you that the Dems don't want a candidate with no loyalty to their party walking in and stealing the nomination. It's exactly what's happening with Trump on the GOP side and it's a complete disaster for them.

 

[And_Gignac]

I'm just going to use this because I can't be bothered looking up exits right now. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/content/images/KDK2016021101-table1.png
Of the 11 states with ~35%+ non-white voteshare he's won 1 - yesterday.
Of the 9 between 20-34% he won 3 - 1 yesterday.
Of the 12 less than or equal 19% he won 10.

Notably, with the exception of Michigan, his wins in >20% non-white states have all been caucuses.

He has done reasonably well with Hispanics in some states (NV,IL) while losing them handily in others (FL,AZ,TX).

He is losing black voters everywhere thus far. North and South. East and West.

Hawaii and Alaska don't change the nature of the contest in terms of demographic strengths and weaknesses.

He is overall weak with older people and over 30 black voters, that's a fact. He has lost those two demos in every contest (except by Michigan), which shows he and his occasional tone deafness does create a problem addressing certain issues minorities care about outside of income inequality. He also has not being able to break into the halo of goodwill she and her husband history with the community have (plus the "Obamaness" she carries around)

But I find it extremely condescending to assume minorities don't have ideological differences outside of their racial identity. There are liberal, conservative minorities too (which may not seem obvious due to the Southern strategy that has alienated anyone but whites from the GOP).

Michigan and Illinois are good examples of more liberal states where certain segments of minorities preferred Sanders. Hawaii now being a pivotal example too.

 

[Zonar]

Bernie's worldview is that all boils down to class-based economic warfare in the end - it's core to his socialist worldview. (Wall St = bourgeoisie, Main Street = proletariiat) He has said many things that indicate he sees racial issues as merely a subset of these economic issues, and that by fixing the economic issues, you'd be fixing the racial ones at the same time. He faced major criticism for this early in the campaign and attempted to change the messaging, but it still seeps through when he's speaking.

This is not a point of view that reflects many minorities' lived experiences (especially black people) and it also doesn't match up to the data we have. What Bernie's views translate as, if you don't buy into his "class as the root of all evil" philosophy, is that Sanders is willing to tackle issues affecting minorities.....as long as they happen to affect white people too. Drug decriminalization, police violence, income redistribution - these are all things where the white population is going to see benefits in addition to minorities. The problem comes when trying to discuss issues that are explicitly about race- things like housing/hiring discrimination. Purely economic solutions don't address those, because you have to acknowledge a need for explicit protections and bulwarks.

To use a recent example- we've found out that banning credit checks decreases black employment, and that allowing drug testing increases black employment. The laws are sold as helping minorities, but it turns out they end up helping white people w/ bad credit at the expense of black people in general.

Bernie's support among black voters in the US is also noticeably worse in the South. There was an article about Sanders'/Cinton's outreach to black communities there, and one interesting takeaway was that many of Sanders' black supporters doing the outreach were from outside the region, and there seemed to be a big gulf/disconnect between them and the people they were talking to. This tweetstorm is one of the best things I've seen this election cycle, and it's a great explanation of why many people aren't hopping on board the Sanders train- https://storify.com/docrocktex26/when-racism-gets-in-socialism

This tweet in particular stood out to me as a distillation of the core issue:

Killer Post!

 

[Valhelm]

Bernie's worldview is that all boils down to class-based economic warfare in the end - it's core to his socialist worldview. (Wall St = bourgeoisie, Main Street = proletariiat) He has said many things that indicate he sees racial issues as merely a subset of these economic issues, and that by fixing the economic issues, you'd be fixing the racial ones at the same time. He faced major criticism for this early in the campaign and attempted to change the messaging, but it still seeps through when he's speaking.

This is not a point of view that reflects many minorities' lived experiences (especially black people) and it also doesn't match up to the data we have. What Bernie's views translate as, if you don't buy into his "class as the root of all evil" philosophy, is that Sanders is willing to tackle issues affecting minorities.....as long as they happen to affect white people too. Drug decriminalization, police violence, income redistribution - these are all things where the white population is going to see benefits in addition to minorities. The problem comes when trying to discuss issues that are explicitly about race- things like housing/hiring discrimination. Purely economic solutions don't address those, because you have to acknowledge a need for explicit protections and bulwarks.

To use a recent example- we've found out that banning credit checks decreases black employment, and that allowing drug testing increases black employment. The laws are sold as helping minorities, but it turns out they end up helping white people w/ bad credit at the expense of black people in general.

Bernie's support among black voters in the US is also noticeably worse in the South. There was an article about Sanders'/Cinton's outreach to black communities there, and one interesting takeaway was that many of Sanders' black supporters doing the outreach were from outside the region, and there seemed to be a big gulf/disconnect between them and the people they were talking to. This tweetstorm is one of the best things I've seen this election cycle, and it's a great explanation of why many people aren't hopping on board the Sanders train- https://storify.com/docrocktex26/when-racism-gets-in-socialism

This tweet in particular stood out to me as a distillation of the core issue:

Hillary Clinton has not and does not advocate for more specific solutions of racial justice, though. You're right that Bernie Sanders has blind spots, but his record for speaking out against racism is much better. Hillary Clinton and her husband have supported policies that actively harm the black community, not to mention her constant racist gaffes

The only strength she holds over Sanders is that she's presumably more likely to win the nominee, but when push comes to shove, Sanders would turn out more people to vote. Many of the young white voters and independents who helped Barack Obama get elected will not vote for Clinton, mostly because they find her inauthentic. Because proving sincerity is so difficult, it's unlikely that Clinton can expand much beyond her current core of voters. If Sanders is the nominee, voters who rely most direly on a liberal presidency will vote for him even if they preferred Clinton. We can't expect most Sanders supporters to vote for Clinton in the opposite situation. If Clinton is paired against Trump, there's a very real possibility that masses of white independent-leaning Democrats will vote for him over her.

 

[Kevinroc]

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

I think a lot of people are just caught up in the drama of the whole election cycle.

 

[nitekrawlwer]

Hillary Clinton has not and does not advocate for more specific solutions of racial justice, though. You're right that Bernie Sanders has blind spots, but his record for speaking out against racism is much better. Hillary Clinton and her husband have supported policies that actively harm the black community, not to mention her constant racist gaffes

Didn't Bernie sign that welfare reform policy that you are saying actively harms the black community? I guess he just gets a pass on actually voting for it and Hillary gets to take the fall when she only advertised it.

 

[Valhelm]

Didn't Bernie sign that welfare reform policy that you are saying actively harms the black community? I guess he just gets a pass on actually voting for it and Hillary gets to take the fall when she only advertised it.

nope

Do your homework before slinging shit

 

[nitekrawlwer]

nope

Do your homework before slinging shit

Well pardon me, you are correct. I'll research more thoroughly next time. I believe I may have mistaken the welfare issue for the crime bill in 1994.

Since your research skills seem better would you mind pointing out the other policies? Your post implies there are many.

 

[Moofers]

If you're a minority and vote for Sanders, you're basically white. Also, if you have to win 58% of the upcoming votes, and start winning states with 70-80%, you're toast anyway. Clinton is unstoppable, also the Bernie Bros are way too racist. Oh, and did you know poor republicans and Bernie Bros constantly vote against their own interests? So, Hail to the Queen, Baby!

YAAAAS QUEEN! Omg Hillary so noble! So honorable! So good unlike bad OLD socialist Bernie!

 

[royalan]

Hillary Clinton has not and does not advocate for more specific solutions of racial justice, though. You're right that Bernie Sanders has blind spots, but his record for speaking out against racism is much better. Hillary Clinton and her husband have supported policies that actively harm the black community, not to mention her constant racist gaffes

The only strength she holds over Sanders is that she's presumably more likely to win the nominee, but when push comes to shove, Sanders would turn out more people to vote. Many of the young white voters and independents who helped Barack Obama get elected will not vote for Clinton, mostly because they find her inauthentic. Because proving sincerity is so difficult, it's unlikely that Clinton can expand much beyond her current core of voters. If Sanders is the nominee, voters who rely most direly on a liberal presidency will vote for him even if they preferred Clinton. We can't expect most Sanders supporters to vote for Clinton in the opposite situation. If Clinton is paired against Trump, there's a very real possibility that masses of white independent-leaning Democrats will vote for him over her.

No he would not. He absolutely would not. You have no evidence to even begin to suggest this and ALL the evidence to the contrary at this point in the fact that he's losing. He HASN'T turned out more people to vote, even in a primary season when overall turnout is down.

If you're going to make the argument that voter turnout is the solution, then you go to the front-runner. You go to the person who's actually turning out a broad, diverse range of voters en masse. That person is not Bernie. Point blank.

 

[boiled goose]

Outside of Michigan what surprise wins have there been? Unless you are going off of what people were saying before super Tuesday than I can agree but since then everything has played out pretty much in line with what people expect. We knew he was going to destroy all these caucuses for a month.

Oklahoma was a surprise.
In other places like Idaho, Kansas, Colorado he was not expected to win because there wasn't much polling.
You are basically saying after the big surprises and the one big surprise there haven't been any surprises.

Did anyone expect him to take these caucuses by 40-50 points? I doubt it.

No he would not. He absolutely would not. You have no evidence to even begin to suggest this and ALL the evidence to the contrary at this point in the fact that he's losing. He HASN'T turned out more people to vote, even in a primary season when overall turnout is down.

If you're going to make the argument that voter turnout is the solution, then you go to the front-runner. You go to the person who's actually turning out a broad, diverse range of voters en masse. That person is not Bernie. Point blank.

I agree with you that one data point against him is that he is losing the primary.
HOWEVER, he does much much better with independents, which vote in the general but not in primaries. Sanders does much much better in open primaries. So there is evidence. It's not conclusive evidence at all of course, but there is evidence to support that view.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Hillary Clinton has not and does not advocate for more specific solutions of racial justice, though. You're right that Bernie Sanders has blind spots, but his record for speaking out against racism is much better. Hillary Clinton and her husband have supported policies that actively harm the black community, not to mention her constant racist gaffes

The only strength she holds over Sanders is that she's presumably more likely to win the nominee, but when push comes to shove, Sanders would turn out more people to vote. Many of the young white voters and independents who helped Barack Obama get elected will not vote for Clinton, mostly because they find her inauthentic. Because proving sincerity is so difficult, it's unlikely that Clinton can expand much beyond her current core of voters. If Sanders is the nominee, voters who rely most direly on a liberal presidency will vote for him even if they preferred Clinton. We can't expect most Sanders supporters to vote for Clinton in the opposite situation. If Clinton is paired against Drumpf, there's a very real possibility that masses of white independent-leaning Democrats will vote for him over her.

You cannot just try to hand-wave away his massive problems with these demographics.

As a southerner, that poster is correct. Bernie doesn't do nearly enough when he talks about racial justice since he largely doesn't believe in racism; just classism. That's bunk, and we should all know it now. Hillary does a great job of that message. Women get more shit in this country specifically for being women, and black people get more shit for being black. He needs to do a lot of good speaking on these issues, and to practice, I'd make him where a shock collar that goes off if he mentions Wall Street, billionaires, or white people.

 

[metalslimer]

Oklahoma was a surprise.
In other places like Idaho, Kansas, Colorado he was not expected to win because there wasn't much polling.
You are basically saying after the big surprises and the one big surprise there haven't been any surprises.

Did anyone expect him to take these caucuses by 40-50 points? I doubt it.

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but I'm pretty sure he was expected to take Idaho and Kansas. I'll admit some people got caught up in the Clinton is going to sweep Super Tuesday outside of Vermont. And while people didn't expect the blowouts to be on this level most places expected big wins yesterday for him. I'm not saying the predictions and polling data have been perfect but they've been a lot more consistent than you make them out to be.

 

[Macho Madness]

Outside of Michigan, there really haven't been any surprises, no. There's an easy pattern for this stuff by now. There are some tossups upcoming but saying it's a tossup means don't be surprised either way.

Before Kansas and Nebraska, we didn't know Bernie had a caucus bonus. Once we did, it became easy to predict Utah, Idaho, Alaska, Washington etc.

 

[boiled goose]

Maybe I'm not remembering correctly but I'm pretty sure he was expected to take Idaho and Kansas. I'll admit some people got caught up in the Clinton is going to sweep Super Tuesday outside of Vermont.

It would not be surprising if he took those, to say they were expected?? Not really. There was no good polling! Looking at demographics alone at that point didn't tell you much. Lost Iowa but crushed NH.

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

Exactly. I completely agree. It is so disappointing.
Basically every big win doesn't matter and every big Hillary win means it's over. Heck according to GAF it was over from the beginning.

Realistically, Bernie's chances are very very slim at this point.
THAT SAID, if you actually look at their targets Clinton at this point is overperforming by 7% and Sander is under performing by the same amount. It is a close race. The reason why his chances are so slim is because it is unlikely you will suddenly start over performing after consistently being under target.

There are reasons for Sanders supporters to have hope though. Sanders is raising more than Clinton. His National polling has been a steady creep upwards with him at his highest ever at the moment. This suggests that as people hear more from Sanders, they are more likely to support him.

His chances are probably less than 1/10, but something like a crazy (and unexpected) upset in NY and we have a real race.

 

[Macho Madness]

It would not be surprising if he took those, to say they were expected?? Not really. There was no good polling! Looking at demographics alone at that point didn't tell you much. Lost Iowa but crushed NH.

Exactly. I completely agree. It is so disappointing.
Basically every big win doesn't matter and every big Hillary win means it's over. Heck according to GAF it was over from the beginning.

Realistically, Bernie's chances are very very slim at this point.
THAT SAID, if you actually look at their targets Clinton at this point is overperforming by 7% and Sander is under performing by the same amount. It is a close race. The reason why his chances are so slim is because it is unlikely you will suddenly start over performing after consistently being under target.

There are reasons for Sanders supporters to have hope though. Sanders is raising more than Clinton. His National polling has been a steady creep upwards with him at his highest ever at the moment. This suggests that as people hear more from Sanders, they are more likely to support him.

His chances are probably less than 1/10, but something like a crazy (and unexpected) upset in NY and we have a real race.

Sanders' biggest problem going forward, and what has caused his past problems, is his inability to win over Democrats. I know that sounds silly but I'm referring to registered Democrats. People who've been part of the party for years, and are happily registered as such. He consistently loses them in most states, and even in some states he wins.

New York is a closed primary, and it's worth 247 delegates. And it's a state where she has massive built-in advantages. I don't want to say he doesn't have a shot because he does but that's a steep hill to climb.

 

[Leona Lewis]

Douglas MacArthur would not agree. I choose the matrix.

Flew too close to the sun, he did.

 

[illusionspark]

You cannot just try to hand-wave away his massive problems with these demographics.

As a southerner, that poster is correct. Bernie doesn't do nearly enough when he talks about racial justice since he largely doesn't believe in racism; just classism. That's bunk, and we should all know it now. Hillary does a great job of that message. Women get more shit in this country specifically for being women, and black people get more shit for being black. He needs to do a lot of good speaking on these issues, and to practice, I'd make him where a shock collar that goes off if he mentions Wall Street, billionaires, or white people.

Huh? Where are you getting this from?

 

[faint.]

Just read in the UK news that Bernie won Hawaii, Alaska and Washington? And by good margins? I feel like just the other day someone on GAF told me he didn't have a chance in Alaska. In any case, great result. I really hope he keeps up this sort of momentum.

A couple months ago some people on GAF were saying Bernie wouldn't win any state outside of Vermont.

 

[Maxim726X]

As an outside observer I don't get the attitude.

Polling shows Bernie will lose state X - 'Why don't you just give up, him winning state X is a pipe dream, there's nothing to talk about'
Bernie pulls a surprise win in State X - 'Doesn't matter anyway, this changes nothing, there's nothing to talk about'

Primaries voting, Bernie and Hillary pull in similar numbers - 'Well great night for Hillary, Bernie barely caught up by 8 delegates, call me when he does better'
Bernie wins 3 states by a huge margin, wins 150 delegates - 'Doesn't matter, non-news, it's already over anyway'

I'm building a strawman here, but really. Hillary will most likely win the nomination, it'll likely be over after NY. I just don't get why some of Hillary's supporters can't accept that Bernie has a really passionate base and concede he did score some surprising wins and did much MUCH better than anyone in their right mind expected.

Every state has gone as predicted sans Michigan. So in reality there are very few surprises.

Again, the math just isn't there. Everyone knew that Sanders was going to pull wins out of these states. He needs as many delegates as he can get, because once this moves to California/New York, the dream is dead. Let's just hope that he has the grace to back out peacefully.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

With respect to the earlier questions re: why minorities are SO not "feeling the Bern", it should be noted that while he's down with every minority, it's black voters in the South that he is REALLY losing with, and that allowed Hillary to run up such huge margins. Some Bernie supporters frame this as "eh, a bunch of people from states we aren't going to win in the first place", but the likelier reality is that the message that we are going to give everybody free healthcare and college does not seem very tenable to a large group that, by and large, are not even enjoying fully-implemented Obamacare because they live in red states that did not accept the Medicaid expansion, among other things. Whereas Clinton, while she's not the best candidates for minorities, nevertheless has been doing outreach in those communities for decades, first with her husband and then as a presidential candidate, and they seem to genuinely see her as the person most likely to stand up for their issues against Republican obstructionism, whereas Bernie seems more like someone who has paid lip service to being pro-minority but has never done significant outreach to try and actually develop a relationship with them.

It should also be noted that his margins are not NEARLY as bad among younger minority voters - something like 45-55 or 40-60 in that demographic. So it's older black voters, and older black women, especially, that are not "feeling the Bern", and that seems to support the hypothesis that the more you feel like you have to lose in this election, the less likely you are to support a radical candidate promising to forcibly upheave the political system.

 

[TDLink]

So I asked a few pages ago but no one really responded, so I'll ask again...

Google is saying Washington has 101 delegates with Bernie getting 25 and Clinton getting 9. Where are the rest of the delegates going?

 

[Macho Madness]

So I asked a few pages ago but no one really responded, so I'll ask again...

Google is saying Washington has 101 delegates with Bernie getting 25 and Clinton getting 9. Where are the rest of the delegates going?

It can take awhile until they're fully allocated because of congressional districts and whatnot.

 

[TyrantII]

Also an outsider but for what I've seen, Bernie polls better at nationals against republicans as well compared to Hillary. But It's obvious Bernie isn't actually a democrat, so the party and the electorate (and the media) are trying to drown him out. It's a hard chance to win when the whole system is against you, and it's actually been fascinating to watch how blatantly corrupt the whole political machine in the United States is. And just to clarify I'm not saying Bernie detractors don't have any ground to stand on, as political inclinations are obviously free for everybody, but the justifications for dismissing him in the written media is as empty as a tramp speech.

As soon as people start hitting him pointing out that you'll owe $5,000 in taxes with him making 55k, it's over. Done.

No amount of nuance or explaining will matter. In politics, if you're explaining, you're losing.

"Well that's never going to pass anyways" doesn't help either. It make the candidate look weak.

America isn't ready for what Bernie is selling after 4 decades of vilifying government and taxes. It's putting the carriage in front of the horse.

 

[Karsticles]

As soon as people start hitting him pointing out that you'll owe $5,000 in taxes with him making 55k, it's over. Done.

No amount of nuance or explaining will matter. In politics, if you're explaining, you're losing.

"Well that's never going to pass anyways" doesn't help either. It make the candidate look weak.

America isn't ready for what Bernie is selling after 4 decades of vilifying government and taxes. It's putting the carriage in front of the horse.

I will take my $2000 more in taxes if my entire family has health insurance and my college is debt-free. That's a steal. Right now insurance is $800 per month for my family.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

With respect to the earlier questions re: why minorities are SO not "feeling the Bern", it should be noted that while he's down with every minority, it's black voters in the South that he is REALLY losing with, and that allowed Hillary to run up such huge margins. Some Bernie supporters frame this as "eh, a bunch of people from states we aren't going to win in the first place", but the likelier reality is that the message that we are going to give everybody free healthcare and college does not seem very tenable to a large group that, by and large, are not even enjoying fully-implemented Obamacare because they live in red states that did not accept the Medicaid expansion, among other things. Whereas Clinton, while she's not the best candidates for minorities, nevertheless has been doing outreach in those communities for decades, first with her husband and then as a presidential candidate, and they seem to genuinely see her as the person most likely to stand up for their issues against Republican obstructionism, whereas Bernie seems more like someone who has paid lip service to being pro-minority but has never done significant outreach to try and actually develop a relationship with them.

It should also be noted that his margins are not NEARLY as bad among younger minority voters - something like 45-55 or 40-60 in that demographic. So it's older black voters, and older black women, especially, that are not "feeling the Bern", and that seems to support the hypothesis that the more you feel like you have to lose in this election, the less likely you are to support a radical candidate promising to forcibly upheave the political system.

Blacks shouldn't feel the Bern because he's proposing tax increases like a mad man and hasn't brought whistleblowers on board for financial legislation on his perceived #1 issue Wall St. which is dumber than dumb. Particularly, because blacks were targeted, got hit hard, and Sanders needs them bad for a W. So, he had to be on his A+++ game by surrounding himself with great people months ago that could school him on what was illegal, next steps, and so on. He's gone on and on about Wall St with at best a C+ team of counsel based off his rhetoric and responses to criticism.

Moreover, I bet he wouldn't be getting his butt whooped so bad out there if he effectively highlighted months ago here's how the Clintons have helped and here's how they've crapped on black people. Then, let them judge for themselves if Clinton is worth it as an ally because she's done good things and isn't her husband.

 

[egruntz]

Flew too close to the sun, he did.

His posts have been extremely patronizing for quite a while. Thank goodness.

Bernie did very well yesterday! He's still behind by quite a bit. I hope he can keep up these results in future contests. However, PA and NY might be tough for him, considering the independents won't be able to vote in large numbers due to how their primaries are set up.

Hopeful though... Gaining back the belief that he can do this. He's just gotta keep up these impossibly high numbers in the results... Oh boy.

 

[TyrantII]

I will take my $2000 more in taxes if my entire family has health insurance and my college is debt-free. That's a steal. Right now insurance is $800 per month for my family.

I absolutely will as well. Again, that does not matter.

People do not think like that. People think federal government debt is analogous to a credit card!

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I absolutely will as well. Again, that does not matter.

People do not think like that. People think federal government debt is analogous to a credit card!

The other thing is the guarantee that the care or organization will be equal or better to current insurance companies? Where is Sanders getting the technocrats needed to run a national HC? Is he going to poach talent from insurance companies, and will they be paid equal or more to what they are making? Is he going to dismantle current insurance companies, and would he have legal authority to do so?

Both of those angles will easily sink him for the GE, hell those angles hurt the original vision of Obamacare.

 

[Karsticles]

I absolutely will as well. Again, that does not matter.

People do not think like that. People think federal government debt is analogous to a credit card!

I don't disagree with you. I think it will largely be on average Americans to disperse this message. In any other election, I would say that Sanders is unelectable. But with Trump as his opponent, I think it's a guarantee. Even as a high school teacher, if I say the name Donald Trump in my classroom, 3-4 kids are guaranteed to blurt out "He is a racist!", and the rest of the class will murmur in agreement.

The other thing is the guarantee that the care or organization will be equal or better to current insurance companies? Where is Sanders getting the technocrats needed to run a national HC? Is he going to poach talent from insurance companies, and will they be paid equal or more to what they are making? Is he going to dismantle current insurance companies, and would he have legal authority to do so?

Both of those angles will easily sink him for the GE, hell those angles hurt the original vision of Obamacare.

I don't see the problem with insurance companies being like private schools. Everyone pays in to single payer, but if you want your own insurance, you can do that, too. I imagine private insurance companies will become something that middle-high class citizens participate in, like private schools.

 

[royalan]

Moreover, I bet he wouldn't be getting his butt whooped so bad out there if he effectively highlighted months ago here's how the Clintons have helped and here's how they've crapped on black people. Then, let them judge for themselves if Clinton is worth it as an ally because she's done good things and isn't her husband.

I don't even believe this anymore. Because he (and his surrogates) have been shitting on Hillary non-stop since the primaries began, and black people are still supporting Hillary Clinton by overwhelming margins. His numbers have improved since we've moved out of the south but still, Hillary is enjoying the bulk of black support.

Obama didn't steal the black vote from Hillary by shitting on her, and he didn't do it just by virtue of being black. He did it two ways: 1) By being a presence; and 2) proving he could win. There's an argument to be made that Bernie has maybe done 2 (although I don't think he has. Young white voters does not a winning coalition make) , but he has DEFINITELY not done 1. Bernie has not been a meaningful presence to the black community in half a century (or any minority community, really), and he's been COMFORTABLE with that...until it was time to run for President and, surprise surprise, turns out black folk are an important part of the democratic electorate. Well Bernie, you don't reap what you don't sow. It's as simple as that.

He can shit-talk Hillary all he wants. Point out her flaws until he's blue in the face. But black people know Hillary. Black people don't know Bernie.

 

[Gutek]

I don't even believe this anymore. Because he (and his surrogates) have been shitting on Hillary non-stop since the primaries began, and black people are still supporting Hillary Clinton by overwhelming margins. His numbers have improved since we've moved out of the south but still, Hillary is enjoying the bulk of black support.

Obama didn't steal the black vote from Hillary by shitting on her, and he didn't do it just by virtue of being black. He did it two ways: 1) By being a presence; and 2) proving he could win. There's an argument to be made that Bernie has maybe done 2 (although I don't think he has. Young white voters does not a winning coalition make) , but he has DEFINITELY not done 1. Bernie has not been a meaningful presence to the black community in half a century (or any minority community, really), and he's been COMFORTABLE with that...until it was time to run for President and, surprise surprise, turns out black folk are an important part of the democratic electorate. Well Bernie, you don't reap what you don't sow. It's as simple as that.

He can shit-talk Hillary all he wants. Point out her flaws until he's blue in the face. But black people know Hillary. Black people don't know Bernie.

Are you saying black people are low information voters?

 

[Valhelm]

You cannot just try to hand-wave away his massive problems with these demographics.

As a southerner, that poster is correct. Bernie doesn't do nearly enough when he talks about racial justice since he largely doesn't believe in racism; just classism. That's bunk, and we should all know it now. Hillary does a great job of that message. Women get more shit in this country specifically for being women, and black people get more shit for being black. He needs to do a lot of good speaking on these issues, and to practice, I'd make him where a shock collar that goes off if he mentions Wall Street, billionaires, or white people.

But that's false. Bernie Sanders does address racial justice, more proactively than Clinton does. She has stronger ties to African American communities, but she takes these votes for granted.

No he would not. He absolutely would not. You have no evidence to even begin to suggest this and ALL the evidence to the contrary at this point in the fact that he's losing. He HASN'T turned out more people to vote, even in a primary season when overall turnout is down.

If you're going to make the argument that voter turnout is the solution, then you go to the front-runner. You go to the person who's actually turning out a broad, diverse range of voters en masse. That person is not Bernie. Point blank.

Most Clinton supporters would vote for Sanders. Many Sanders supporters wouldn't vote for Clinton. She's got a massive issue appealing to independents, especially when paired against Trump, and I'm not sure if she can bridge that very necessary gap.

 

[Deleted member 13876]

New York is a closed primary, and it's worth 247 delegates. And it's a state where she has massive built-in advantages. I don't want to say he doesn't have a shot because he does but that's a steep hill to climb.

Personally, I think he should record a cover of Frank Sinatra's New York, New York.

 

[royalan]

Are you saying black people are low information voters?

How in the hell did you get that from my post?