The Friendly Monster
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This is true. It seems optimistic though. The pressure on the new Tory leader to hit a50 will be immense.
The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
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Kadayi
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What people were saying is that *if* we leave the EU and do what the leave suggests, then bad things will happen.
At this point, not much has happened, because the UK hasn't actually done anything!
- we haven't even started the process of pulling out of the EU. Some people are suggesting we may never actually do it.
- it even seems that even if we do leave the EU, we may not actually achieve anything that the leave campaign wanted. (basically just swap the EU for the EEA).
And yet somehow despite nothing happening, we've still managed to lose over 13% of the value of "UK plc".
Things happened. The UK public voted out. There is zero chance politically that the exit isn't going to go ahead given the public fallout that would occur as a result of any attempt by the government to renege on the result. The EU recognise this, and that is why they want Article 50 invoked, so they can get the formal negotiations under way for the transition.
No ones putting money back into the UK on the basis of 'it's not going to happen'. Like any crisis, there's a knee jerk, and then it's business as usual. Might take a few months, but this notion that everything is going to hell in a handbasket is doom mongering at its finest.
They were only ignored if you ignore what happened afterwards: they renegotiated the treaty based on their remarks, which is the one that actually got approved. The public voted something, the politicians acted on it, they then approved it. That is democracy in action, not it being ignored.
-Plasma Reus-
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Looking at them side by side is shocking.
Not from me.
So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.
Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.
Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.
Clear?
So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.
Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.
Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.
Clear?
maquiladora
Member
Not as simple as this photograph of a page from a book suggests. Ireland, for example, did not simply "vote again" on the Lisbon Treaty. Ireland renegotiated the terms of the text with the EU, which resulted in specific exclusions and inclusions:
The changes addressed Ireland's main concerns with the treaty resulting in a second referendum getting a clear Yes vote.
It was a more democratic process than any other state in the EU, who all approved Lisbon by parliaments without any referendum.
SlipperyFishes
Banned
Murdoch site says people voted leave overwhelmingly? Well I never!
I think the exit going ahead is most likely, but I can sill see several avenues by which it won't.
Especially if there is another general election before anyone invokes article 50.
If (presumably) Johnson called for a general election, and a party or parties running on a no exit, or at least a second referendum platform win, it won't necessarily go ahead.
Obviously that's a big if, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility.
I don't think the bulk of Leave voters would also vote for a Tory party fronted by Johnson.
The question is whether Labour (who may not even run on such a platform), Lib Dems or anyone else could viably secure enough seats to get a parliamentary majority in the face of an emboldened UKIP and a Tory party almost certainly sticking to their guns on Leave. I think probably not, but it's what I have my fingers crossed for.
I detect no untruths here. Should be added to OT3.
Edit: Though you should really credit the actual author of that post rather than present it as your own.
Um... the results of the referendum say that?
Sorry if this is a joke, can't tell anymore.
The question is, would Spain veto Scotland's EU membership? And if there is no immediate prospects of joining the EU, is Scotland still willing to secede?
I'm not sure I understand. The total numbers there are the same as the official count, aside from the age breakdown which is unknown officially.
We're a representative democracy, not a direct democracy.
If the next GE is run with pro / anti Brexit parties, and an anti-Brexit party wins, it would be completely legitimate for them to ignore the result of the referendum.
Of course they could. The Lib Dems could be the only party opposing Brexit and could romp home to a majority victory.
Could.
UpDownLeftRight
Banned
It's basically our only hope for remaining in the EU by the sounds of it. It seems the public need to clarify a reversal on the decision and without a second referendum voting in a PM who's against it is basically the only way to voice it.
GamerMax73
Member
The question is under what circumstances are Spain opposing membership? Any and all? After Scotland seceded and is formally recognised as a Soverign member state by the UN?
I think they'd have a chance but realistically I don't see a GE before article 50
Perhaps, you'd need to factor in the SNP though.
My hope is that Johnson would do it solely out of wanting a way to continue as PM without destroying his career and/or legacy.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Possible, but extremely unlikely assuming that Scottland secedes first. Ideally everything will be in place to kickstart then independent scotland into the EU in a matter of months rather than the usual years, compared to the stonewalling that would have happened if the country had gone independent back in 2014. That's what Sturgeon's networking in Brussels is about too. Years of membership application can already be skipped because Scotland fullfills every single rule/requirement for membership. Spain would lose nothing because Scotland wouldn't be splitting off from a EU country (no precedent for Catalonia) and the rest of the EU will be glad if Scotland takes the place of the UK in Brussels.
I'd say so, especially if article 50 is triggered and things go down south in the UK more and more. Any sort of trust the Scots still had into westminster, promises made by the tories and the English/Welsh electorate have been thoroughly shattered I'd say. Might as well go full independent if the UK leaves the EU anyway. A Scottish currency might even be the better idea than clinging to the pound when the financial sector packs up and move to the mainland/Ireland and the British economy gets to feel the post brexit fallout.
maquiladora
Member
Credit Suisse forecasts a UK recession
GamerMax73
Member
It'd be interesting to see a mass surgence to LibDem and UKIP at the next General. Total collapse of the two traditional parties. Won't happen, but I'd like to see it non the less.
doubt it
The attempted Labour coup doesn't actually seem to have anything to do with the referendum beyond timing, but apart from that, pretty much.
GamerMax73
Member
Love the fatalism. A vote for no way out I see. The ship's sinking and the lifeboats are on fire
Currently l wouldn't discount anything.
It's unprecedented and uncharted. In all honesty WHOEVER is the next PM is going to get torn a new one so large they will be sucking shit through a straw UNTIL they call a GE.
I think it'll happen, but not en masse. It'll be noticeable, and perhaps have a significant change on the make up of parliament, but I doubt Labour and Tory support will entirely crumble, whatever happens.
Eh? It has loads to do with the referendum. Of course he always had dissenters, but there has been a furious reaction to his perceived half-hearted efforts to campaign for Remain and how this was subsequently reflected in the results of Labour heartlands.
It somehow manages to seem even crazier when you write it all down. What a shitshow.
Mortimer Brewster
Member
You must have missed both Spain and France coming out today stating they would veto any attempts by Scotland to join the EU.
IF it was part of the UK.
Should Scotland legally leave the UK then apply it would be welcome with open arms.
The issue is the legal bit - Westminster has to agree to a referendum. It almost certainly won't, which means it would have to secede unilaterally. There's no way the EU would recognise the country if thats the case.
Fingers crossed either Scotland can bring us back from the brink or they get their independence.
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Well, was it concerning Scotland joining the EU as part of the UK or when they are independent post-brexit?
The Economist's Alex White: https://twitter.com/alexwhite1812/
EIU Brexit Take
EIU Brexit Take
- 1. Brexit has plunged the UK into political, economic and market turmoil. We expect this turmoil to be sustained
- 2. Financial market volatility will persist, while uncertainty over the future of the UK's relationship with EU will feed into real economy
- 3. We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017
- 4. We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24
- 5. The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises
- 6. We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018
- 7. This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)
- 8. While this is going on, politics will remain deeply fractious. The Govt, the main parties, parliament & the Union all face big threats
- 9. We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead
- 10. The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018
- 11. UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration
- 12. Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold
- 13. New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions
- 14: This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process
- 15. Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right
- 16. This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)
- 17. UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity
- 18. Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time
- 19. As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different
- 20. We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)
- 21. Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks particularly in Italy/France
- 22. The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once
- 23. We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control
Because they don't want to negotiate with part of the UK. That would change if independent.
Love the fatalism. A vote for no way out I see. The ship's sinking and the lifeboats are on fire
I just don't see how we can hold a GE in the time frame that Europe wants for us to invoke it. Hopefully we can work something out to make it happen though
If you are swallowing the pish that the dissenting Labour MPs are spouting, I have a bridge to sell you.
That's fully* 1% below what the SNP managed, yet they are somehow not resigning en masse.
*
May not actually be 'fully' 1%. I couldn't be arsed to check the figures to see which way they rounded the numbers.
There's no realistic way for Scotland to remain in EU while being still in UK or gaining independence while UK is in the process of getting out. Scotland needs to first gain the independence and then join the EU as a new country. But Sturgeon does very well what she does now, by making sure that the path to follow is very clear. We'll see if she succeeds to obtain a second referendum.
He wins elections, and was for out. The two biggest things they prize.
And yes, he's an absolute charlatan - but they see this as a triumph, not a mess.
You can't deny they got a good amount of labour voters voting remain but the problem is they didn't get labour voters back, that's the difference.
I wonder who were the 4% of UKIP voters who wanted to stay
If Corbyn was turning out his supporters then why was youth turnout only 36%? Do we even know what Labour turnout was like in total? If Labour didn't run a campaign what do you think the breakdown would have been? That doesn't prove anything about how well Corbyn turned out the Labour vote.
On the other hand, there are reams of evidence that Corbyn deliberately sabotaged the Remain campaign because his heart wasn't in it.
He's the face of the Leave movement. The movement that won. Backing him will get them popularity points.
They are politicians after all.
It's not the overall split that's the problem. No SNP seats voted leave. Traditionally safe Labour seats in the north did. That's not a good sign for a general election, especially when many of those SNP seats used to be Labour as well.
Crystal. That's actually a good summary of the omnishambles before us.
The timing of the attempted coup was always happening straight after the referendum (regardless of the result), it's been planned for a while.
Not shocking. The concerning thing is we won't have a short quick dip but a long shallow bathe. The longer they take to start the process the worse it gets.
Cheers for the condescension. As this referendum has clearly shown, perception trumps reality. Your statistics don't change the fact that in the eyes of many, Corbyn has been ineffective in his campaign stance. It's not a coincidence that this leadership challenge has come now, when Labour had a golden opportunity to capitalise on a government in disarray but instead chose to voice their displeasure at how they thought the vote was lost.
Here is video evidence of Corbyn's staff talking about how they can't get him enthused about the campaign
There is also plenty of testimony about it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36633238
http://www.hulldaily mail.co.uk/hull-mp-alan-johnson-slams-woeful-unpopular-jeremy-corbyn-in-letter-to-constituents/story-29459349-detail/story.html
There is also plenty of testimony about it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36633238
http://www.politico.eu/article/how-...-remain-boris-craig-oliver-jim-messina-obama/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36651135
http://www.hulldaily mail.co.uk/hull-mp-alan-johnson-slams-woeful-unpopular-jeremy-corbyn-in-letter-to-constituents/story-29459349-detail/story.html
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