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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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A Human Becoming said:
I see the Pound hasn't recovered since last week. Any prospects of returning to pre-Brexit levels?
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Nope. You have a better chance of banging Liz Hurley.

Jokes aside, GDP estimates for 2016/17 have been slashed. With no strong economy your currency will drop in value. Also, the BoE is going to cut rates, which has already affected the value.

Markets price on news and predictions, not on right now.

Hold on to your sense of adventure; you're going to need it.
 
I wish British politics really were like Game of Thrones because then some of the people I hate most in the world would have been murdered by their closest friends.
 
Hasney said:
They're not really keeping their heads down, they're saying that they represent the 48% and that if they did get power, they'd ignore the referendum. That is resonating with a lot of people.
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If the next GE was in 6 months then that *could* work... But the next GE will be a couple of years after the exit has been finalised. The hurdles and protests to try and force the UK back into the EU at the point would make this weeks shitshow look like a minor blip.
 
guit3457 said:
EU trade official in Brexit talks warning

We talked about this yesterday but they interviewed Cecilia Malstrom

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36678222
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I was wondering about that part :
It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.

Taken at face value, these rules mean the UK cannot conduct its own trade talks for up to two years - a fearsome challenge to any prime minister trying to deliver Brexit.
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It seems clear and logical enough, but what would EU do if UK still started negotiating with other countries anyway ? Kick them out ?
 
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-rating-s-p-idUSKCN0ZG2LS
Standard & Poor's Global Ratings said on Thursday it had cut its long-term credit rating on the European Union to 'AA' from 'AA+' but raised its outlook to "stable" from "negative" after the United Kingdom voted to leave the bloc.
[...]
"After the decision by the UK electorate to leave the EU...we have reassessed our opinion of cohesion within the EU, which we now consider to be a neutral rather than positive rating factor," S&P said.
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Morning all. Today's a funny one, being that it's a week on from results morning. Even then, in my deepest, darkest hour of despair I had no idea that the past week would exceed my lowest expectations.

It's also important to remember the anniversary of the Battle of the Somme, wherein tens of thousands of British troops fought alone with definitely no outside help against the invading hoard of German immigrants so that Britain could be great again.
 
Alx said:
I was wondering about that part :


It seems clear and logical enough, but what would EU do if UK still started negotiating with other countries anyway ? Kick them out ?
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Probably trade sanctions. And you'd be then negotiating with a hostile party which is probably not great. Honestly I expect backroom / under the table negotiations to happen anyway (outside the EU) and everyone to turn a blind eye to that providing no one draws attention to it.
 
Alx said:
It seems clear and logical enough, but what would EU do if UK still started negotiating with other countries anyway ? Kick them out ?
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Setting aside the lack of capacity to even do this on the UK's part, bilateral trade deals are... bilateral. No other country is going to enter anything resembling formal negotiations on trade liberalisation with the UK. Because they value trade with the union it's leaving.

Consider the below.
cd8ef6dc-370b-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.img

That's a lot of work for the UK's 5 trade negotiators.

Also, somewhat non-sequitur but from the same article.
ccb503c8-370b-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.img

cf30cd9e-370b-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.img

d00718f4-370b-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.img
 
theaface said:
Morning all. Today's a funny one, being that it's a week on from results morning. Even then, in my deepest, darkest hour of despair I had no idea that the past week would exceed my lowest expectations.

It's also important to remember the anniversary of the Battle of the Somme, wherein tens of thousands of British troops fought alone with definitely no outside help against the invading hoard of German immigrants so that Britain could be great again.
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Battle of the Somme had one of the highest casualty counts and casualty rates of any battle in the history of humanity.
 
You can say anything with so called "facts".

Can we have some insight from someone with less expertise to validate or dispute the above claims please?
 
Elaugaufein said:
Honestly I expect backroom / under the table negotiations to happen anyway (outside the EU) and everyone to turn a blind eye to that providing no one draws attention to it.
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What would be the point of having negotiations ongoing between the UK and other EU countries?
Don't you know that they cannot negotiate trade deals by themselves, because all trade deals have to be negotiated on behalf of the EU?

It makes no sense.
 
le-seb said:
What would be the point of having negotiations ongoing between the UK and other EU countries?
Don't you know that they cannot negotiate trade deals by themselves, because all trade deals have to be negotiated on behalf of the EU?

It makes no sense.
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I meant countries ouside the EU. You aren't going to be able to negotiate with the EU while you're still a member because that's a clear conflict of interest.
 
Pandy said:
Unless a miracle candidate appears from their ranks they are screwed at the next GE whoever their leader is, but doubly so now that they've tried so hard to shaft Corbyn without ever having a Plan B.
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Funny how history repeats, kinda. Right now their best candidate is someone who isn't eligible and probable doesn't want it - yet...

Sadiq Khan (Mayor of London)

Equally the same can be said for the poster child choice, David Milliband. Of the eligible the best choices are Yvette Cooper or Chuka Umunna - are they too Blairite to win now though?
 
shinra-bansho said:
Setting aside the lack of capacity to even do this on the UK's part, bilateral trade deals are... bilateral. Other country is going to enter ahnything resembling formal negotiations on trade liberalisation with the UK.

Consider the below.

*snip*
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That does show a weak correlation between immigration level in an area and depression of local wages. Of course there's probably confounding factors (like immigrants being likely to be funneled to poorer areas with a fair amount of downward pressure on local wages anyway). One of the problems with a lot of favourite economic measures is that they do tend to mask the downward pressure on poorer households with the productivity increases that tend to go to the better off (without a good redistributing welfare system).
 
About this Cecilia Malstrom thing:

BBC said:
The European Union's top trade official says the UK cannot begin negotiating terms for doing business with the bloc until after it has left.

"First you exit then you negotiate," Cecilia Malmstrom told BBC Newsnight.
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That doesn't sound right to me, as Article 50(2) explicitly says:

Art 50(2) said:
A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.
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... implying that there must be a framework for future relations with the EU prior to (or at least in parallel with) negotiations fro the terms of exit.
 
Spladam said:
Battle of the Somme had one of the highest casualty counts and casualty rates of any battle in the history of humanity.
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I know. I didn't think I needed to put /s to convey my dismay that our current situation is largely down to peoples' misguided sense of nationalism. The Battle of the Somme, WW1 and WW2 should instead serve as poignant reminders of the importance of working with your neighbours rather than pure self-interest.
 
GamerMax73 said:
Funny how history repeats, kinda. Right now their best candidate is someone who isn't eligible and probable doesn't want it - yet...

Sadiq Khan (Mayor of London)

Equally the same can be said for the poster child choice, David Milliband. Of the eligible the best choices are Yvette Cooper or Chuka Umunna - are they too Blairite to win now though?
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I think it has to be Dan Jarvis. Especially going up against Gove or May.
 
phisheep said:
About this Cecilia Malstrom thing:



That doesn't sound right to me, as Article 50(2) explicitly says:



... implying that there must be a framework for future relations with the EU prior to (or at least in parallel with) negotiations fro the terms of exit.
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They're not saying that it's not specifically allowed, they're saying that they're going to interpret it as the rules around trade negotiation still apply and that we can't negotiate until we're fully out of the EU. I'm sure it could be negotiated, but I'm not sure why they'd give that up.
 
I've done some soul searching and, as an unlikely an outcome as it is, I want to see Gove become the next PM.

So long as Labour get their shit together and unite behind 1 leader, really doesn't matter who. Then I think they can force a vote of no confidence in a Gove government - after all is on record as saying he's not up to the job.

I'd predict an early GE would see a rise in both LibDem and UKIP (neither larger enough to form government or official opposition). And we will be back in coalition territory. Maybe then there'd be real hope in not pushing the big red button.
 
Pretty sure Gove declared to eliminate BawJaws.

I fully expect him to negotiate a deal with May for a high cabinet position (possibly that Brexit minister she talked about?) in exchange for his support before the final round.

Goodlife said:
Got 2 more people signed up as Labour Members this morning.
Both big Corbyn fans.
#Corbyn4PM
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lol
 
cabot said:
Pretty sure Gove declared to eliminate BawJaws.

I fully expect him to negotiate a deal with May for a high cabinet position (possibly that Brexit minister she talked about?) in exchange for his support before the final round.
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Don't see it. She has no need to negotiate with Gove as she is the front-runner; this is UK trade talks logic again.

Also, why would you make a deal with the guy who barely finished fucking over the last guy he made a deal with? Politicians love skulduggery but they are not stupid.
 
He's the only leave candidate, that's why. He'll get a good portion of that vote.

It's tory party members here, not the general public that decides.

I admit I'm not so certain on how exactly his behaviour will be seen by most, it was ruthless. Is that a good thing seen by tory members?

No idea.
 
phisheep said:
About this Cecilia Malstrom thing:



That doesn't sound right to me, as Article 50(2) explicitly says:



... implying that there must be a framework for future relations with the EU prior to (or at least in parallel with) negotiations fro the terms of exit.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't the future framework just be the UK outside of the EU as per the public's decision in the referendum?
 
travisbickle said:
Wouldn't the future framework just be the UK outside of the EU as per the public's decision in the referendum?
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Well, they could try and take the line that, "You voted for no immigrants and no contribution to the EU budget, so the framework is WTO rules. OK thx bye"

But there is definitely the implication that the "framework" for the relationship needs to be determined before or parallel to the exit negotiations.
I'm thinking of a Greenland situation, where it was clear that they wanted out, but they also clearly wanted to keep their strong links to Denmark and not just throw out all the EU rules.

I can see May giving Gove the Brexit negotiation role, since it's such a poisoned chalice. Gove could complete his Brutus act by negotiating a Norway deal, backstabbing the 17 million people who voted for 'sovereign' immigration control and no EU contributions.
Otherwise, I guess it would go to Liam Fox if May prefers a corrupt former defence secretary to a backstabbing lizard-man. I can't recall any other prominent Tories who wanted to leave.

Does anyone know if Gove (or May) is popular in the Tory party membership? I fear that the Venn diagram between my social bubble and the Tory membership would need the circles to be separated by astronomical distances.
My gut tells me that May has it all sown up and only rampant sexism could stop her. And since Thatcher was okay, I think the membership would be okay with a tougher, meaner, more authoritarian version.
I guess someone has to like Gove, other than Murdock, Dacre and his mum*

*
Semi-autonomous spawning vat AI process#428
 
daviyoung said:
Yeh, it going to be a thousand strong but there have been protest marches around London practically every day this week
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Hasney said:
One in London and one in York that I'm aware of.

London: Marchers will gather at Park Lane at 11am on Saturday 2 July and march towards Parliament Square.

York:
york-against-brexit.jpg
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Would love to march, but ironically the Brexit fallout has turned up the workload in the office and I will have to go in and can't make it
 
Crumpo said:
Nope. You have a better chance of banging Liz Hurley.

Jokes aside, GDP estimates for 2016/17 have been slashed. With no strong economy your currency will drop in value. Also, the BoE is going to cut rates, which has already affected the value.

Markets price on news and predictions, not on right now.

Hold on to your sense of adventure; you're going to need it.
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I know this is small in the grand scheme of things but I have a holiday in America planned for next January. I'm kicking myself that I didn't get money exchanged last Wednesday. Looking ahead things may only get worse but if I were to change now Sod's law says the pound will bounce right back.

This whole mess has me strongly considering emigrating (for once being northern Irish has something positive to it) but my savings that I would use to set myself up elsewhere are worth significantly less than they were just over a week ago. The uncertainty is one of the worst things about this.
 
Quoting myself from the Jeremy Corbyn thread because I think it might be more relevant here. On Lib Dems making gains from "representing the 48%":

Mr. Sam said:
The problem is you always have to take into account first past the post (which is a shitty, archaic voting system, but there we are). So while lots of people voted Remain, constituencies which did so are few and far between. Do the Lib Dems even field candidates in Northern Ireland? Will they be able to take seats off the SNP in Scotland when independence is more popular than ever? Can they defeat Labour in London and Liverpool? If buyer's remorse sets in countrywide, they might be able to capitalise - as is, they'll probably have to settle for minor gains and take a large leap in vote share as a consolation.
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Mr. Sam said:
Again though, most Tory constituencies voted Leave. Even mine, which is ostensibly in London, only voted Remain by about 2,000 votes out of 180,000. I'm obviously not saying it's impossible, particularly after the last week, but it's an uphill battle.

Best case scenario at this point is a progressive alliance between Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems, the Greens (or the Green, as it were), and all the other randoms. If you can't imagine Corbyn leading Labour, as no rational person can, can you imagine him leading that monstrosity?
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