The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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blackcrane said:
Or maybe everyone forgave and forgot the 350 million promise (= all of that to NHS) because it wasn't that big of a deal and not many people voted based on it. I'll tell you what I thought of that number - I thought it was an exaggeration in order to make a point and that there were *some* money to be recovered, but perhaps less and perhaps it was more complex than just immediately getting 350 million a day and putting it to wherever the UK wants. Now, is there money to be recovered if the UK get out of the EU? Yes, I believe so. How much is it? We'll have to see. But either way, that it's more complex than simply immediately getting 350 mil per day is not a surprise at all.
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Sure.

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cormack12 said:
The problem with a referendum is that it is only a snapshot of opinion on that particular day, for that particular turnout. You can already see there's been a massive change in mood and opinion since the result, with each passing day intensifying. If you do act on a referendum then it has to be almost right away otherwise it loses its legitimacy.

I know people who chose to abstain from voting because they felt like they didn't know enough. Which in my mind is fair enough - why didn't more people do the same? It's because they were whipped into a frenzy by Farage and Johnson, on the back of idealistic nonsense. Two independent leave campaigns with different core values united very different political votes. And now they've both gone, the promises are shown to be lies.

A country of this scale with a very distinct service based economy leaving the EU is unprecedented. It's clear from all sides that no-one really knows how this is going to work. You can't use a referendum from a year ago or other such time period to then act on. It just doesn't make sense.

I hope the EU stands firm on everything.
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This. People don't get how a) utterly dependent on services the UK economy is b) how rare it is for trade deals to offer services market liberalisation. The WTO doesn't do it under GATS, and most bilateral deals don't really do it either.

Since someone brought up Canada. It's worth looking at CETA (the deal between Canada and the EU which is 7 years in the making and may get passed in a further 2 or so). It's primarily a trade in goods deal, it's not a full free trade in goods deal are there are a number of exceptions and protections but around 90% of goods will be tariff and quota free (with a proportion of the remaining 10% moving towards that incrementally over the course of the first 7 years after CETA implementation).

However CETA only grants limited services liberalisation it is by no means comparable to being a member of the single market. While CETA does introduce further openings in areas such as mining, postal services and maritime transport, hundreds of pages are devoted to listing ‘reservations’ to liberalisation commitments: Canadian and EU carve-outs from the deal.

As regards financial services more specifically, CETA does not prevent the EU and Canada from keeping a number of regulatory and licensing requirements in place. In order to take advantage of the EU financial services ‘passport’, for instance, Canadian firms will have to establish a presence in the EU and comply with EU regulations.
 
Funky Papa said:
Theresa May refuses to rule out deportation of EU nationals living in UK amid fears of ‘influx’ of migrants



Having second thoughts about making a new thread since we are talking about Independent's sources (although May has already implied as much).
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That echoes with what she said previously:

Robert Peston: Now, there’s a lot of anxiety among migrants who’ve come here from the rest of the EU about whether they’ll be allowed to stay. There’s also quite a lot of anxiety among Brits living in the rest of Europe. What would you say to them?

May: What I’d say is that, at the moment we’re still a member of the EU, and the arrangements still continue, so there is no change to their position currently. But of course, as part of the negotiation, we will need to look at this question of people who are here in the UK from the EU, and I want to be able to ensure that we’re able to not just guarantee a position for those people, but guarantee the position for British citizens who are over in other member states, in other countries in Europe and living there.

Peston: So you would like people both… you’d like Brits abroad and migrants here to stay? Forever basically?

May: Well, nobody necessarily stays anywhere forever. But I think what’s important…

Peston: But at their choice?

May: What’s important is there will be a negotiation here as to how we deal with that issue of people who are already here and who have established a life here and Brits who’ve established a life in other countries within the European Union. And that is, their position at the moment is as it has been. There’s no change at the moment, but of course we have to factor that into the negotiations.
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http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/theresa-may-want-kick-europeans/
 
Yes. She was for remain but it was possibly just out of loyalty to Cameron. She has a mixed record - appalling stuff on immigration and immigrants (so bad even the right wing press attacked her for a speech she gave) but also extremely progressive on institutional racism and the police (as in more willing to tackle it than the left even).
 
If UKIP pick the right leader to replace Farage, Labour could be fucked forever.
 
Ushojax said:
If UKIP pick the right leader to replace Farage, Labour could be fucked forever.
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Hardly forever. 48% if the country voted to remain. Labour has to either split or undergo the shift the democrats did - stop relying on a white wing, culturally conservative vote to win and assemble a new, urban based coalition.
 
Just read the news. My god, is everyone absolutely mad in UK? Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are just spineless weasels. How come there's no uproar to this? Leave the exit negotiations for others to pick up the pieces of a divided country but warning that he will keep "an hawk eye" on the negotiations and will comment on them along the way... This is absolute madness.
 
norinrad said:
Isn't this clearly a negotiating tactic? This also puts the EU in a very difficult position. May makes Thatcher actually look like a saint.
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Nothing stopping the EU doing the same and evict the British nationals. It's not a negotiating tactic if the other side can play the same card.

It will be hard to turf out all the retirees living in sunny Spain and forcing them back to chilly old Britain.
 
Corto said:
Just read the news. My god, is everyone absolutely mad in UK? Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are just spineless weasels. How come there's no uproar to this? Leave the exit negotiations for others to pick up the pieces of a divided country but warning that he will keep "an hawk eye" on the negotiations and will comment on them along the way... This is absolute madness.
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Oh we are pissed and we are going to get more more angry in the next few days. I would put money on Mass Protests in the streets of London by the end of this month.
 
Corto said:
Just read the news. My god, is everyone absolutely mad in UK? Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are just spineless weasels. How come there's no uproar to this? Leave the exit negotiations for others to pick up the pieces of a divided country but warning that he will keep "an hawk eye" on the negotiations and will comment on them along the way... This is absolute madness.
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Maybe because he isn't an mp or a member of the governing party and was going to take no roll at all in any negotiations anyway?
 
Kabouter said:
Why should the EU not just call that bluff?
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They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
 
KingSnake said:
Why should EU negotiate with terrorists?
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Yep. People thinking this is part of a negotiating strategy are completely misreading things. This makes us look truly awful, and they will absolutely call our bluff. The sight of the U.K. marching working people who came here legally down to the docks to deport them would destroy us on the world stage. The impact on the economy would be as bad as long term brexit.

It should be removed off the table, instantly. Anything else is disgusting and amoral, and a betrayal of the people who live and work here.
 
norinrad said:
They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
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That will not happen.
 
Ushojax said:
If UKIP pick the right leader to replace Farage, Labour could be fucked forever.
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They will always be the party for racists, no matter how many - or few - MP's they manage to get together. They will never lead this country. Farage is the most popular and biggest name they have had by far, and he failed to be elected 7 times.
 
blackcrane said:
Now, is there money to be recovered if the UK get out of the EU? Yes, I believe so. How much is it? We'll have to see. But either way, that it's more complex than simply immediately getting 350 mil per day is not a surprise at all.
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The whole £350 million was obviously to entice a certain type of vote. NHS is the largest employer up North I think, specifically where Tories often do worse. It also appeals to older people who are depending on NHS services more and more with each passing year.

They were explaining it the other day on one of the political programmes. OK, we send Brussels £350 millions a week (let's assume figures are correct). We get our rebates and the EU choose which programmes in which countries to fund. The thing is the EU has funded lots around the country - the entire EU is about bringing up the standard for everyone. It distributes wealth where needed. Sheffield, Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham, the North-East, town like Ebbw Vale and places like Cornwall. And yes, as one of the countries who can contribute more, we get a little less back.

You're advocating giving all this money back to central government for them to do what they want with. You do remember money not trickling North right? The North being left to die? This is not even mentioning projects like Trident and HS2 because our government has a great track record of delivering large scale projects on time, under budget and with real deliverables that enhance service......not to mention the expense of still needing to secure access to the single market, as well as money to secure other trade deals.

This is a way to move money round on the back of large third party contracts, which are overpriced and under deliver, and to create a black hole of 'trade agreements' where money can be 'lost' or 'written off'. Given how all the politicians in places of power seem to still advocate clearly leaving the EU, I'm going to guess there is a plan of sorts. Or at least an end goal. The fact no-one knows what it is or the fact it's obfuscated from the public, is concerning for me.
 
blackcrane said:
I agree with *, **, ***, but not with the rest. All of †, ‡, § are just *** aka "things take time".
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One of them was also supposed to be, which will be worse than an EU deal, depending upon the relative size and power of the economy.

China's trade deal with Switzerland is highly lopsided. And took considerable time to negotiate. And people hold it up as a shining example of what can be had outside the EU.

‡ isn't factually disputable, the EU is the UK's largest trading partner by value. Loss of free access to the single market will not be compensated for with new free access to another country.

The UK lacks trade negotiation resources. Even if it had them, they don't compare to the army at other economy's disposal including the EU.

I feel like I've asked before what specific sectors will expand as a result of EU exit. Such that it would make up for the loss in services trade. To resounding silence.
 
Makareu said:
Except that the UK leaving the UE has yet to happen. He is not cashing out, he is jumping ship (probably with a position already ligned up within a populist organisation) before all the shit flying toward the Brexit camp hit him.
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The longer he actually has to do something, the worse it is for him. He's got what he wanted: a referendum that showed the UK's support to leave the European Union. If they leave, he wins. If they stay, he gets to come back and say that the UK is led by unprincipled cowards bribed by the European Union.

So he's cashed out at the very height of what he could achieve in politics. For people who support him, he's the man who stood up to the EU and finally won.
 
Kabouter said:
Why should the EU not just call that bluff?
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Several EU countries already reassured UK citizens that they would keep their rights to live, visit and work in their countries. Some even offered citizenship. Calling that bluff would damage even more the UK position. Maybe UK leaders just stopped caring at all.
 
CTLance said:
True dat.

I swear, the term "British politics" will automatically trigger circus clown music in my head if this goes on for much longer. This will break me. You're breaking me, UK. Why are you doing this to me.
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Things get a lot more bearable if you just start humming Groose's Theme every time you see Boris Johnson.
 
(Great?) Britain has talks about kicking out all EU immigrants whilst multiple EU leaders have spoken of plans to offer British nationals living in their respective counties citizenships. Britain looks like complete dicks and the EU look like the sensible party in this theater.

Great job Britain, the world is proud.
 
norinrad said:
They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
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Of course they won't. Beyond the humanitarian issue immigration is a net positive for the EU countries. The UK is basically just threatening to shoot itself in the other foot.
 
norinrad said:
They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
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At this point I think it's more likely that the EU says 'GTFO' to the UK. It doesn't feel like they want the UK there anymore after the vote, and will probably take great pleasure in humiliating them over if/when they can.
 
norinrad said:
They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
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No, EU shouldn't match the British insanity on this matter. But it shouldn't give in to blackmail either (because is inhumane and it can be used again and again by UK). If UK wants to act like Nazis, let them. At that point it means also that UK doesn't want free movement, so the only deal possible is the Turkey one.
 
Corto said:
Just read the news. My god, is everyone absolutely mad in UK? Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are just spineless weasels. How come there's no uproar to this? Leave the exit negotiations for others to pick up the pieces of a divided country but warning that he will keep "an hawk eye" on the negotiations and will comment on them along the way... This is absolute madness.
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The guys is a clown. Literally, in the most narrow meaning of the word. He rides on populism (like a good clown should) and wears clown shoes.
 
FlammableD said:
kOJwBPL.png
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This is actually very common - to accuse those who would fight for equality of being prejudiced, e.g. anti-nationalists are anti-white, feminists are misandrists. It's why multiculturalism is equated with "white genocide." Basically, if you do it, you're both an idiot and an awful human being.
 
shinra-bansho said:
One of them was also supposed to be, which will be worse than an EU deal, depending upon the relative size and power of the economy.

China's trade deal with Switzerland is highly lopsided.
‡ isn't factually disputable, the EU is the UK's largest trading partner by value. Loss of free access to the single market will not be compensated for with new free access to another country.

The UK lacks trade negotiation resources. Even if it had them, they don't compare to the army at other economy's disposal including the EU.

I feel like I've asked before what specific sectors will expand as a result of EU exit. Such that it would make up for the loss in services trade. To resounding silence.
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Exports from the UK to the EU shrunk from 55% to 45% in the last 10 years, other markets become more important.

I thought I answered regarding which specific sectors will expand as a result of leaving the EU, maybe I am wrong and I missed it before - that's not the right question to ask. The (long term) benefits (as I see them) aren't to any specific sector, they are to all sectors at once. Due to less regulation and being able to strike deals on our own instead of relying on a highly inertial alliance to do that for us.

I agree with everything else, it is going to take time, yes, and there are no guarantees.
 
norinrad said:
They could, but it makes the situation very nasty. Whats the EU going to do, counter that with we are going to deport all UK citizens out of the EU? I doubt any EU official will come out and say that. Maybe Juncker?
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They will counter and advocate that the hardworking British people already residing here are very much welcome to become European citizens, showing how truly resentful Europe really is to the Leave campaign. That is not a joke, that is how they will interpret it.
 
KingSnake said:
No, EU shouldn't match the British insanity on this matter. But it shouldn't give in to blackmail either (because is inhumane and it can be used again and again by UK). If UK wants to act like Nazis, let them. At that point it means also that UK doesn't want free movement, so the only deal possible is the Turkey one.
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Point taken, but they will also have a deal with Holland and Germany who trade heavily with the UK.
 
Tommy DJ said:
The longer he actually has to do something, the worse it is for him. He's got what he wanted: a referendum that showed the UK's support to leave the European Union. If they leave, he wins. If they stay, he gets to come back and say that the UK is led by unprincipled cowards bribed by the European Union.

So he's cashed out at the very height of what he could achieve in politics. For people who support him, he's the man who stood up to the EU and finally won.
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You are right. I misunderstood 'cashing out'.
 
This whole mess has provided me with so much entertainment... until I remember that I actually have to live in this country, at least
 
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