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[Obliterator]

I would be really upset if SS beats Guardians. Guardians is pretty great. Definitely up there with the first and TWS in terms of Best MCU movies.

Yeah I agree and I was one of the few who didn't actually hate / dislike SS. Guardians was a far better film.

It's up there among the top of the MCU for me.

I know Disney was expecting a 150 million plus opening but they can't be too disappointed a Guardians of the Galaxy movie is opening above 100 million and way above the first, right?

It's going to make a lot of money no matter what so no this won't put anything "in danger". There will still be a Guardians 3 and no one is getting fired or anything.

But it still might end up a bit disappointing for Disney as they clearly had very high expectations

 

[Schlorgan]

So is Guardians of the Galaxy 2 suddenly going to need to hit $2b to be profitable?

Eh I wouldn't lose sleep.

I don't even know if top 5.

Weakest of their last 2 years or so for me.

I didn't want to cry at the end of Civil War or Doctor Strange.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

So is Guardians of the Galaxy 2 suddenly going to need to hit $2b to be profitable?

Pfft. Avatar numbers or it's a bomba! The biggest bomba! Disney am cry total!

 

[Schlorgan]

Mojo lists the budget for GotG2 at $200m.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Mojo lists the budget for GotG2 at $200m.

And you can see every single penny of that on screen.

 

[Obliterator]

And you can see every single penny of that on screen.

Yeah the special effects were insane. Movie looked expensive as fuck

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Pfft. Avatar numbers or it's a bomba! The biggest bomba! Disney am cry total!

They lied when they said Guardians Of The Galaxy would return at the end of Vol. 2.

Cause Bomba.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

Efron is 100% on juice.

Which is fine, but he's on HGH at the least

It's not just that. Efron's dehydrated as fuck to look that cut.

 

[Discotheque]

It's not just that either. His abs are a fucking alien species. He's krang brehs. Follow the clues....

 

[twinturbo2]

So, Entertainment Weekly did a cover story on the remake of Murder on the Orient Express. Noncontroversial, right? Well...

Folks, we need to hang this one from the rafters in the Incredibly Moronic Tweets Hall Of Fame. My jaw dropped on the floor here on how dumb this whole thing is.

 

[Zelenogorsk]

I think that tweet is a joke.

edit: nope lol

 

[twinturbo2]

I think that tweet is a joke.

It's not. She attempted to defend it by doubling down on the derp to complain about whitewashing. And she got properly withered by people who actually read the book.
https://twitter.com/filmfatale_nyc/status/859815003557384192

 

[DeathyBoy]

Yeah the special effects were insane. Movie looked expensive as fuck

Ego's planet is stunning.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

It's not just that either. His abs are a fucking alien species. He's krang brehs. Follow the clues....

It's not just that either. He's a cybernetic organism - living tissue over metal endoskeleton.

Spoiler

Zac Efron for The Terminator remake.

Ego's planet is stunning.

GotG2 is up there with, or at least very close to, Dr. Strange in terms of MCU art direction and visual design.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

I would put it over Strange. Strange looks amazing when he does his magic an all, but GotG takes all the time place on amazing locations

 

[DeathyBoy]

I would put it over Strange. Strange looks amazing when he does his magic an all, but GotG takes all the time place on amazing locations

Strange was great, but GOTG 2 made a living planet utterly believable. Best make-up Oscar ensured.

 

[Schlorgan]

Guardians had some genuine emotional moments that easily put it above Strange.

Spoiler

Also, the Zune bit was fantastic.

 

[kswiston]

boxoffice.com updated their long term forecast list

Lot's of changes to their existing predictions:

King Arthur is bumped down to a $21M opening and $61M total
Snatched is bumped up to a $21.5M opening and $72M total

They changed their mind about Alien Covenant again and dropped it back down to $37M OW and $95M total

They bumped PotC5 up to $84M for the 4-day weekend (still under studio tracking) and $212M total


Their 2-month prediction range is also getting into the busy part of summer, so there are a lot of new entries:

Despicable Me 3 - $75M OW, $270M total
The House - $28M OW, $126M total
Baby Driver - $15M OW, $50M total
Amityville: The Awakening - $8.5M OW, $15M total


- They expect DM3 to be notably down from DM2 and Minions domestically.
- I guess they are pegging The House to be the big comedy of the summer, sort of like Central Intelligence last year.
- That Baby Driver prediction would be the biggest Edgar Wright domestic gross by a large margin
- Amityville seems like it was a waste of time if that is close to the result. the Ryan Reynolds one did $65M domestic.

 

[Schlorgan]

Any word on budget for Baby Driver?

That could be the most profitable Edgar Wright movie.

 

[kswiston]

Friday Studio estimates:

1) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 - $56.3M
2) Fate of the Furious - $2.2M (-57%) - $201M total
3) The Boss Baby - $1.3M (-33%) - $152M total
4) How to be a Latin Lover - $1.3M (-66%) - $17M total
5) Beauty and the Beast - $1.2M (-26%) - $484M total
6) The Circle - $1.2M (-64%) - $13M total
7) Baahubali 2 - $850k (-81%) - $14M total

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Looks like $150m is out the window then. Still, a big improvement over the first film's opening, but not quite as massive as I bet they were expecting.

 

[kswiston]

Looks like $150m is out the window then. Still, a big improvement over the first film's opening, but not quite as massive as I bet they were expecting.

If GotG behaves like Civil War over the rest of the weekend, it will end up with $138M


EDIT: That is still the biggest superhero opening outside of Spider-Man 3, and films featuring Iron Man or Batman.

 

[Raguel]

Interesting that GotG v2 is performing under expectations. I wonder if it will even beat the first one's final box office and if it does, by how much. It's def not gonna make a billion and 850 million seems to be the optimistic guess.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

boxoffice.com updated their long term forecast list

Lot's of changes to their existing predictions:

Wow at those King Arthur numbers. I saw the trailer for it again and I still have no idea who the fuck this movie is supposed to cater to.

-Fantasy fans know at the very least the basic story of King Arthur and will be pissed off at all the changes and visual style.

-Casual fans see just another generic action fantasy film with anachronistic rock music in the trailer.

 

[Obliterator]

If GotG behaves like Civil War over the rest of the weekend, it will end up with $138M


EDIT: That is still the biggest superhero opening outside of Spider-Man 3, and films featuring Iron Man or Batman.

Yeah it's still a pretty damn amazing performance. We just gotta start keeping the Marvel box office in check. That's still a massive opening it just looks "low" because everyone was going in thinking $150

 

[DeathyBoy]

Interesting that GotG v2 is performing under expectations. I wonder if it will even beat the first one's final box office and if it does, by how much. It's def not gonna make a billion and 850 million seems to be the optimistic guess.

It's only performing under crazy expectations. Like mine when I said it'd make a billion. It'll outgross the original with ease.

 

[Plasticine]

They lied when they said Guardians Of The Galaxy would return at the end of Vol. 2.

Cause Bomba.

There's only one way for Marvel to save this failing franchise.

 

[Slayven]

It's only performing under crazy expectations. Like mine when I said it'd make a billion. It'll outgross the original with ease.

Don't forget the fat merch

 

[kswiston]

Yeah it's still a pretty damn amazing performance. We just gotta start keeping the Marvel box office in check. That's still a massive opening it just looks "low" because everyone was going in thinking $150

Even professionals let the Marvel buzz color their tracking.

$150M would have required the biggest sequel bump of any MCU film outside of Civil War (which doesn't really count for obvious reasons) by far, at 59%. The Phase 2 sequels saw bumps between 30% (Thor 2) and 46% (Winter Soldier).

$138M would equal a bump of 47% for GOTG 2 over the first film.

 

[Christian]

I remember when early estimates were calling for an almost $200 million opening for Civil War. Apparently BO experts lose their damn minds when a Marvel movie is involved.

 

[3N16MA]

I overestimate every MCU opening.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I overestimate every MCU opening.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Has any tracking started on Spider-Man:
Homecoming? I wanna see how that one does compared to the ASM movies.

There's only one way for Marvel to save this failing franchise.

 

[kswiston]

Has any tracking started on Spider-Man:
Homecoming? I wanna see how that one does compared to the ASM movies.

Boxoffice.com will have their two-months out prediction next week. Official tracking will take longer.

 

[J_Viper]

Has any tracking started on Spider-Man:
Homecoming? I wanna see how that one does compared to the ASM movies.

So am I.

The trailers so far have been bland as hell, but I'm sure it'll be better than the last two.

Not like that's a high bar though.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Friday Studio estimates:

1) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 - $56.3M
2) Fate of the Furious - $2.2M (-57%) - $201M total
3) The Boss Baby - $1.3M (-33%) - $152M total
4) How to be a Latin Lover - $1.3M (-66%) - $17M total
5) Beauty and the Beast - $1.2M (-26%) - $484M total
6) The Circle - $1.2M (-64%) - $13M total
7) Baahubali 2 - $850k (-81%) - $14M total

I would anticipate the Saturday increase is going to be somewhere between 25 and 30%, and then a 30% drop on Sunday, so the range for the weekend is $140-143M.

Not the $150M I felt it would do post-UK opening, but certainly less of a deflating opening than Iron Man 2 and a very strong performance. It will be rather concerning if this has legs akin to Civil War.

I will say, though, that the more sequels that pass us by every year, the more impressed I am by Transformers 2's first five days.

 

[BumRush]

$135-140M would be a great OW. No way Disney will be disappointed with that.

I don't read comics and 4 years ago I had no idea who the Guardians of the Galaxy even were. Now they are opening over $100M.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I don't read comics and 4 years ago I had no idea who the Guardians of the Galaxy even were. Now they are opening over $100M.

The first movie opened at 94

 

[BumRush]

The first movie almost opened at 94

That still amazes me

 

[3N16MA]

The hype has already set expectations above 140M. Now the actual number won't look as impressive to some even though it is. Same situation as AoU.

There hasn't been a single comic book film that has opened above 132M without Batman, Spider-Man, Iron Man.

 

[Obliterator]

The hype has already set expectations above 140M. Now the actual number won't look as impressive to some even though it is. Same situation as AoU.

There hasn't been a single comic book film that has opened above 133M without Batman, Spider-Man, Iron Man.

Indeed. Even comparing it to the first film if it opens above $135 that would be among the MCUs best boosts for a sequel as kswis pointed out.

Everyone just got carried away with the $150 predictions and now that's somewhat changing the narrative. Still Disney themselves even put the $150 number out there so coming in lower than that might sting a little

 

[Boke1879]

Disney isn't going to care much in the long run. Baby Groot merch is more than going to make up for it.

 

[Beren the Empty-Handed]

Hahaha those King Arthur predictions. Anyone could have told them that film was a dumb idea as is.

 

[Schlorgan]

Disney isn't going to care much in the long run. Baby Groot merch is more than going to make up for it.

I wonder if this franchise is a bit like Cars that way.

James Gunn gets to make a $200m movie and Disney gets a bunch of merch money. Win-win as far as I'm concerned.

 

[J_Viper]

What are the chances of JL opening above GotG2?

 

[Kusagari]

What are the chances of JL opening above GotG2?

Like 99%.

GotG2 looks like it's going to beat Suicide Squad's OW.

 

[Obliterator]

What are the chances of JL opening above GotG2?

It's pretty much guaranteed to I would think

 

[Bobby Roberts]

More interesting question is whether JL opens over 150.

Batman v Superman's opening weekend was 166mil

Will a) November and b) the fucking shitacular word of mouth on the first film damage it by 15-16 mil?

It'll be interesting!

 

[NealMcCauley]

Thor could put a dent in it too.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

What are the chances of JL opening above GotG2?

I'm actually going to take the under on that, assuming Guardians 2 opens to $140M. I think that the bad reception of BvS and the Thanksgiving holiday siphoning off demand is going to lead to 20% drop in the opening weekend.

I'll probably reassess this if Wonder Woman gets some great word of mouth, though.