Yeah, that's always been the problem (and what makes polling young people hard). They tend to heavily overstate how likely they are to vote.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Yeah, that's always been the problem (and what makes polling young people hard). They tend to heavily overstate how likely they are to vote.
Wrestlemania
Banned
From March 2015:
http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/bbc-newsbeat-18-24-year-olds-political-survey/
"Just one in four 18-24 year olds (26%) say that they are certain to vote at the General Election. Overall two thirds (69%) say that they are at least fairly likely to."
Also:
http://opinium.co.uk/differential-turnout-between-polls-and-the-election/
"As we can see, implied turnout is higher for all age groups but particularly so for those under age 35 who are also the most pro-Labour. "
Some interesting tables there I can't quote.
Going to be really interesting to see how different (or not) things are this time.
http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/bbc-newsbeat-18-24-year-olds-political-survey/
"Just one in four 18-24 year olds (26%) say that they are certain to vote at the General Election. Overall two thirds (69%) say that they are at least fairly likely to."
Also:
http://opinium.co.uk/differential-turnout-between-polls-and-the-election/
"As we can see, implied turnout is higher for all age groups but particularly so for those under age 35 who are also the most pro-Labour. "
Some interesting tables there I can't quote.
Going to be really interesting to see how different (or not) things are this time.
Part of me thinks the Conservatives are secretly trying to lose so they don't have to deal with Brexit anymore.
I don't want to drag it in here but if you don't mind can I PM you about it?
Audioboxer
Member
Truly. The second Labour loses and Corbyn is ousted, the next manifesto will largely dumb it down and go back to "slightly better than what the Tories are offering".
This is truly the one election for the rUK, notably England (due to volume of votes) to really stick it to the Tories and vote for change. Sadly, I still think many don't have it through their heads an opportunity like this, coupled with May and the Tories seemingly doing everything to lose, does not come up again. Or, you'll probably be waiting till you're hell of a lot older for this perfect storm again. It's prime "lose your shit" material if that youth voting result comes in again in a week and it's still rock bottom.
To be honest, this should be the English Tories red wedding equivalent of the Scottish Labours result in 2015. Infuriating that the opportunity will not be taken. I say that as someone who backs Scottish Independence, but quite honestly, that is one reason I do back it. I just cannot see this country as a whole trying anything different anytime soon. Brexit was a cherry on top. The youth need to get the fuck out and vote to deal with The Nuclear Nine.
Put it this way, if you care about the Union too and don't want a chance of Scotland breaking off from continued Tory reign, putting someone like Corbyn in as leader is the step in the right direction. Especially with the current Labour manifesto that has things in it we've enjoyed up here for a while (meaning it shows the Scottish people the UK would be willing to progress as a unit). Scottish Labour need to be punted into the sun though, but Corbz would probably sort that out if he did win. Brexit is a massive problem too for Scotland, but, there are multiple battles for the Union and arguably the continued Tory reign does the most damage. The longer the UK keeps voting for what the modern day Conservatives represent the more people up here think we just can't handle this anymore...
blazinglord
Member
Ugh, the longer this election drags on, the more disappointed I am becoming at Theresa May.
At this rate, I might actually end up voting for Corbyn just to ensure that the Conservatives do not get untrammelled power.
Well, that seems like quite a big shift in reported intention. We can only hope that actually bears out on the day.
PJV3
Member
Part of the Brexit legislation is the power to change existing(not sure how much or if all) legislation without a vote in Parliament, I'm not sure i want any party to have a large majority for the next few years.
Keep them all on their toes.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Yeah I've seen some people on my feed sharing how Corbyn's looking into current student's debt as 'Omg he's gonna do it vote Labour!' I'm not expecting a lot and happy with that, but people spreading it as actually policy are running that risk of fucking people off Labour if it doesn't take place.
Wrestlemania
Banned
http://web.archive.org/web/20160311....com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_poll_FINAL.pdf
According to the final voting intention polling from 2015, looks like 53% of 18-24 years old said they were absolutely certain to vote, so it's definitely up a bit in terms of intention.
That turned into only 43% actually voting though.
Yep, a lot of English voters are too stubborn to realise the opportunity they have here and I can see there being a lot of remorse from those not voting when the Tory majority result inevitably comes in. Several of my (mid-20s) mates have repeatedly said they can't wait for old people to die (sometimes serious, sometimes not) and I feel this is a sentiment shared by many young people around the country because of how shit our future is. They need to realise they do have a say before this chance slips away.
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
Just to lighten up the thread - Thor Ragnarok trailer with Corbyn, May and some guests.
https://youtu.be/gpSIzx0Ta0Y
https://youtu.be/gpSIzx0Ta0Y
Audioboxer
Member
An understandable reaction, born out of anger, but never the right way to look at it. I routinely bat away anyone also suggesting old people shouldn't be able to vote. Everyone in the younger categories should be challenging all their friends about politics and whether they are voting. It's a given the old voters turn out consistently, the answer to that is to get the youth turning out consistently, not "waiting around till people die".
While there will be many chances, there's a huge chance in 5 days time for something a fair bit different led by a man that is far from perfect but he's different than what is usually churned out. Milliband wasn't bad, but Corbyn is someone worth taking a punt on because the manifesto attempts a fair bit of change. Some of it I'd worry won't be do-able in a short space of time, but the opportunities should be attempted. The UK has been on the same course it has been on for too long. The same austerity concepts tried over and over, and we're lucky if we have anything left to sell off. All that is really left is the NHS, and I'd much rather it be in the hands of Labour than the Conservatives. Especially under Corbyn. The guy might not get everything done in one term, but I really doubt he'd turn out to be a snake in the grass secretly fucking the UK over and dismantling the NHS behind the scenes.
I hope you weren't hoping to get one of those affordable homes either.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-housing-policy-u-turn-affordable-homes-general-election-2017-manifesto-a7769866.html
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.
I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.
I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.
This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he'd make a good leader.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Labour still voted for that draconian digital snooping act so they're as for as the Tories with that. (Okay maybe using the wrong definition of authoritarian here...)
And just because he doesn't look as stern doesn't mean he wouldn't make a good leader. He's talked a lot at the debates how he puts his focus onto listening to others and coming out with a goal for everyone. Which is more of a united front than Labour had a few months ago.
Jeremy won't blow up countries to bit without a plan. This will lower the chance of radicalised terrorists blowing up british children.
Tell me why May would?
Audioboxer
Member
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Labour majority in play eh? Gotta hope the Lib Dems manage to snatch some seats as well I guess.
Really hope Labour can hit some strong momentum on the last week. Wheel out all the grime artists they can dammit!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
YouGov's statistical model updated for the day.
CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)
For seats, that's:
Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)
EDIT: Whoops, slow to the party. If this happened, almost definitely another election later this year, though.
CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)
For seats, that's:
Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)
EDIT: Whoops, slow to the party. If this happened, almost definitely another election later this year, though.
Can't wait for Tim Farron to be the KINGMAKER
Audioboxer
Member
Totes. Bang on mate.
his style is calm but his record speaks for itself. whereas theresa may constantly u-turns as soon as a the daily mail criticizes her or a focus group expresses minor opposition, on the dementia tax, on national insurance, on whether to call an election, jeremy corbyn has always been bold and consistent to his beliefs in the face of huge opposition.
leadership is sticking your neck out and voting against the iraq war despite the majority of labour and tory mp's and all the major newspapers supporting it, then letting time vindicate you. leadership is forged in constantly fighting for your ideas through two leadership elections and constant opposition instead of being parachuted in as leader and crumbling after one tough election that you assumed would be a cakewalk. it's having the confidence as a leader to trust your policies and be willing to debate your ideas in public and talk to voters honestly, instead of hiding away from one on one debate and disguising your ideas in soundbites.
itsbenoclock
Member
Looking at the electoral map there are two seats predicted to have a slim Tory majority, Milton Keynes East & West. A strong youth vote there alone would flip them to Labour, but I have no faith it'll actually happen as per YouGov's predictions.
Both the seats I can vote in are safe Conservative and it kills me.
Both the seats I can vote in are safe Conservative and it kills me.
the time runs out for article 50 though
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I know. Isn't the UK a massive clusterfuck right now?
Sqrt_minus_one
Member
Milton Keynes does not have an east and west constituency but a MK North and MK South. Where is this electoral map you speak of?
There was a ~10k Tory majority in MK North, where I live, last go around.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
A strong and stable "NO DEAL!" is better than a weak and unstable bad deal
If we keep having elections, we can't possibly get a deal, therefore we can't possibly get a bad deal.
Checkmate, Tories.
Living in central Scotland I don't get the chance to tell Tories to fuck off from my door so I was living vicariously through that video. Brilliant.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Link? Source?
Dirtyshubb
Member
For those saying there is a chance they would have another election later in the year, what exactly would cause that?
Best case scenario if that happens is surely Labour continue to grow their vote share and Corbyns popularity (they can't get rid of him surely) to win it that time. Unless I'm mistaken of course.
Best case scenario if that happens is surely Labour continue to grow their vote share and Corbyns popularity (they can't get rid of him surely) to win it that time. Unless I'm mistaken of course.
in 2015 the polls being wrong when everyone assumed they were right because they all herded together really hurt labour, it allowed the tories to hit hard on the sturgeon controlling miliband thing, squeeze the lib dems in lib dem/tory marginals and meant no scrutiny of the tax credits and disability cuts in the tory manifesto as everyone thought it was just a first draft before coalition negotiations.
but this time what if the (more labour favourable) polls are right this time but everyone just assumes they are wrong and favouring labour again. i think if people knew we could get a hung parliament and another election and screw over article 50 process for another six months at least, they'd hold back on going with their heart and voting labour. but if everyone just assumes the polls are wrong again then the coalition of chaos stuff has no credibility and there won't be any scrutiny on whether a deeply divided labour party can actually govern, instead people will vote to give may a bloody nose and reward corbyn for offering hope.
but this time what if the (more labour favourable) polls are right this time but everyone just assumes they are wrong and favouring labour again. i think if people knew we could get a hung parliament and another election and screw over article 50 process for another six months at least, they'd hold back on going with their heart and voting labour. but if everyone just assumes the polls are wrong again then the coalition of chaos stuff has no credibility and there won't be any scrutiny on whether a deeply divided labour party can actually govern, instead people will vote to give may a bloody nose and reward corbyn for offering hope.
Any thoughts on how that election would turn out? My gut feeling is that another election would increase disinterestedness and so conservatives would get a majority but that's a wild guess.
itsbenoclock
Member
Sorry, got my directions mixed up there. The YouGov polling puts Conservatives at a small margin ahead, just theorising that a very strong youth turnout would topple that.
SporeCrawler
Member
i love it how the range is 70 seats. from a conservative majority, hung parliament to labour majority everything seems possible
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
That woman is a hero.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Dunno if you could call it at this point. Like from the last two months we've gone from certain increased Conservative majority to a faintly possible Labour EDIT: Plurality (thx Crab). Things are pretty nuts right now.
Air Zombie Meat
Member
lol that clip. "But the IRA!" Pathetic.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
No model or pollster is predicting a Labour majority. Not happening.
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