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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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CCS

Banned
The article does also say "Nearly two-thirds of young people say that they are certain to vote in Thursday’s General Election", I don't know if that's much different from how they typically answer that question though.

Yeah, that's always been the problem (and what makes polling young people hard). They tend to heavily overstate how likely they are to vote.
 
From March 2015:

http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/bbc-newsbeat-18-24-year-olds-political-survey/

"Just one in four 18-24 year olds (26%) say that they are certain to vote at the General Election. Overall two thirds (69%) say that they are at least “fairly likely” to."

Also:

http://opinium.co.uk/differential-turnout-between-polls-and-the-election/

"As we can see, implied turnout is higher for all age groups but particularly so for those under age 35 who are also the most pro-Labour. "

Some interesting tables there I can't quote.

Going to be really interesting to see how different (or not) things are this time.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Well there you have it

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tory-tax-policy-rise-income-tax-national-insurance-higher-earners-general-election-2017-a7770581.html

No Tax Rises for the rich while not giving the same guarantee for increases at lower earners.

Add in a National Insurance rise and once again the Tories will try (and fail*) to balance the books on the backs of the poor.

*income inequality means the poorest 80% don't have enough money
Part of me thinks the Conservatives are secretly trying to lose so they don't have to deal with Brexit anymore.
 

Garjon

Member
If Under-25s don't vote they are basically fucked, they will never get a manifesto that offers so much to them ever again. They can instead look forward to more articles about how they should stop eating avocados and buy emeralds instead.
 

Audioboxer

Member
If Under-25s don't vote they are basically fucked, they will never get a manifesto that offers so much to them ever again. They can instead look forward to more articles about how they should stop eating avocados and buy emeralds instead.

Truly. The second Labour loses and Corbyn is ousted, the next manifesto will largely dumb it down and go back to "slightly better than what the Tories are offering".

This is truly the one election for the rUK, notably England (due to volume of votes) to really stick it to the Tories and vote for change. Sadly, I still think many don't have it through their heads an opportunity like this, coupled with May and the Tories seemingly doing everything to lose, does not come up again. Or, you'll probably be waiting till you're hell of a lot older for this perfect storm again. It's prime "lose your shit" material if that youth voting result comes in again in a week and it's still rock bottom.

To be honest, this should be the English Tories red wedding equivalent of the Scottish Labours result in 2015. Infuriating that the opportunity will not be taken. I say that as someone who backs Scottish Independence, but quite honestly, that is one reason I do back it. I just cannot see this country as a whole trying anything different anytime soon. Brexit was a cherry on top. The youth need to get the fuck out and vote to deal with The Nuclear Nine.

Put it this way, if you care about the Union too and don't want a chance of Scotland breaking off from continued Tory reign, putting someone like Corbyn in as leader is the step in the right direction. Especially with the current Labour manifesto that has things in it we've enjoyed up here for a while (meaning it shows the Scottish people the UK would be willing to progress as a unit). Scottish Labour need to be punted into the sun though, but Corbz would probably sort that out if he did win. Brexit is a massive problem too for Scotland, but, there are multiple battles for the Union and arguably the continued Tory reign does the most damage. The longer the UK keeps voting for what the modern day Conservatives represent the more people up here think we just can't handle this anymore...
 
Well there you have it

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tory-tax-policy-rise-income-tax-national-insurance-higher-earners-general-election-2017-a7770581.html

No Tax Rises for the rich while not giving the same guarantee for increases at lower earners.

Add in a National Insurance rise and once again the Tories will try (and fail*) to balance the books on the backs of the poor.

*income inequality means the poorest 80% don't have enough money
Ugh, the longer this election drags on, the more disappointed I am becoming at Theresa May.

At this rate, I might actually end up voting for Corbyn just to ensure that the Conservatives do not get untrammelled power.
 

Par Score

Member
The article does also say "Nearly two-thirds of young people say that they are certain to vote in Thursday's General Election", I don't know if that's much different from how they typically answer that question though.

From March 2015:

"Just one in four 18-24 year olds (26%) say that they are certain to vote at the General Election. Overall two thirds (69%) say that they are at least ”fairly likely" to."

Well, that seems like quite a big shift in reported intention. We can only hope that actually bears out on the day.
 

PJV3

Member
Ugh, the longer this election drags on, the more disappointed I am becoming at Theresa May.

At this rate, I might actually end up voting for Corbyn just to ensure that the Conservatives do not get untrammelled power.

Part of the Brexit legislation is the power to change existing(not sure how much or if all) legislation without a vote in Parliament, I'm not sure i want any party to have a large majority for the next few years.

Keep them all on their toes.
 
FWIW, from speaking to my fellow young people I think turnout COULD (not will, but could) be much higher among young people, particularly university students and graduates than usual. The tuition fees pledge has got a lot of people on side, and I think a lot of recent graduates have bought into it as well in the expectation of debt relief.

That is the only problem with it as a policy: were Labour to somehow end up leading the next government, they'd have to write off the debt of anyone who paid £9000 a year or I think the backlash would be monumental. A loooot of people I've spoken to believe that Labour are going to write off their existing debt.

Yeah I've seen some people on my feed sharing how Corbyn's looking into current student's debt as 'Omg he's gonna do it vote Labour!' I'm not expecting a lot and happy with that, but people spreading it as actually policy are running that risk of fucking people off Labour if it doesn't take place.
 

Garjon

Member
Truly. The second Labour loses and Corbyn is ousted, the next manifesto will largely dumb it down and go back to "slightly better than what the Tories are offering".

This is truly the one election for the rUK, notably England (due to volume of votes) to really stick it to the Tories and vote for change. Sadly, I still think many don't have it through their heads an opportunity like this, coupled with May and the Tories seemingly doing everything to lose, does not come up again. Or, you'll probably be waiting till you're hell of a lot older for this perfect storm again. It's prime "lose your shit" material if that youth voting result comes in again in a week and it's still rock bottom.

To be honest, this should be the English Tories red wedding equivalent of the Scottish Labours result in 2015. Infuriating that the opportunity will not be taken. I say that as someone who backs Scottish Independence, but quite honestly, that is one reason I do back it. I just cannot see this country as a whole trying anything different anytime soon. Brexit was a cherry on top. The youth need to get the fuck out and vote to deal with The Nuclear Nine.
Yep, a lot of English voters are too stubborn to realise the opportunity they have here and I can see there being a lot of remorse from those not voting when the Tory majority result inevitably comes in. Several of my (mid-20s) mates have repeatedly said they can't wait for old people to die (sometimes serious, sometimes not) and I feel this is a sentiment shared by many young people around the country because of how shit our future is. They need to realise they do have a say before this chance slips away.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Yep, a lot of English voters are too stubborn to realise the opportunity they have here and I can see there being a lot of remorse from those not voting when the Tory majority result inevitably comes in. Several of my (mid-20s) mates have repeatedly said they can't wait for old people to die (sometimes serious, sometimes not) and I feel this is a sentiment shared by many young people around the country because of how shit our future is. They need to realise they do have a say before this chance slips away.

An understandable reaction, born out of anger, but never the right way to look at it. I routinely bat away anyone also suggesting old people shouldn't be able to vote. Everyone in the younger categories should be challenging all their friends about politics and whether they are voting. It's a given the old voters turn out consistently, the answer to that is to get the youth turning out consistently, not "waiting around till people die".

While there will be many chances, there's a huge chance in 5 days time for something a fair bit different led by a man that is far from perfect but he's different than what is usually churned out. Milliband wasn't bad, but Corbyn is someone worth taking a punt on because the manifesto attempts a fair bit of change. Some of it I'd worry won't be do-able in a short space of time, but the opportunities should be attempted. The UK has been on the same course it has been on for too long. The same austerity concepts tried over and over, and we're lucky if we have anything left to sell off. All that is really left is the NHS, and I'd much rather it be in the hands of Labour than the Conservatives. Especially under Corbyn. The guy might not get everything done in one term, but I really doubt he'd turn out to be a snake in the grass secretly fucking the UK over and dismantling the NHS behind the scenes.
 

Faddy

Banned

H1PSTER

Member
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.

I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.

This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he'd make a good leader.
 
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.

I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.

This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he is.

Labour still voted for that draconian digital snooping act so they're as for as the Tories with that. (Okay maybe using the wrong definition of authoritarian here...)

And just because he doesn't look as stern doesn't mean he wouldn't make a good leader. He's talked a lot at the debates how he puts his focus onto listening to others and coming out with a goal for everyone. Which is more of a united front than Labour had a few months ago.
 

Faddy

Banned
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.

I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.

This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he'd make a good leader.

Jeremy won't blow up countries to bit without a plan. This will lower the chance of radicalised terrorists blowing up british children.
 

Beefy

Member
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.

I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.

This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he'd make a good leader.
Tell me why May would?
 

Audioboxer

Member
F09889K.png


https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/870989372283342848

For a laugh (yes the Gove tweets are real)

zDtlmMl.png
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
YouGov's statistical model updated for the day.

CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)

For seats, that's:

Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)

EDIT: Whoops, slow to the party. If this happened, almost definitely another election later this year, though.
 

Beefy

Member
Voting intention polls due today (5pm onwards):

ComRes (GB)
ICM (GB)
Opinium (GB)
ORB (GB)
Survation (GB)
Survation (Scotland)
YouGov (GB)
 

Faddy

Banned
YouGov's statistical model updated for the day.

CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)

For seats, that's:

Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)

Can't wait for Tim Farron to be the KINGMAKER
 

Empty

Member
Okay so I got a decent response to one argument I've seen on facebook so here's another.

I don't see Corbyn as being authoritarian enough for me, he doesn't come across as a proper leader like May does.

This made me frustrated when I read it, but tell me why he'd make a good leader.

his style is calm but his record speaks for itself. whereas theresa may constantly u-turns as soon as a the daily mail criticizes her or a focus group expresses minor opposition, on the dementia tax, on national insurance, on whether to call an election, jeremy corbyn has always been bold and consistent to his beliefs in the face of huge opposition.

leadership is sticking your neck out and voting against the iraq war despite the majority of labour and tory mp's and all the major newspapers supporting it, then letting time vindicate you. leadership is forged in constantly fighting for your ideas through two leadership elections and constant opposition instead of being parachuted in as leader and crumbling after one tough election that you assumed would be a cakewalk. it's having the confidence as a leader to trust your policies and be willing to debate your ideas in public and talk to voters honestly, instead of hiding away from one on one debate and disguising your ideas in soundbites.
 
Looking at the electoral map there are two seats predicted to have a slim Tory majority, Milton Keynes East & West. A strong youth vote there alone would flip them to Labour, but I have no faith it'll actually happen as per YouGov's predictions.

Both the seats I can vote in are safe Conservative and it kills me.
 

Kyougar

Member
YouGov's statistical model updated for the day.

CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)

For seats, that's:

Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)

EDIT: Whoops, slow to the party. If this happened, almost definitely another election later this year, though.

the time runs out for article 50 though
 
Looking at the electoral map there are two seats predicted to have a slim Tory majority, Milton Keynes East & West. A strong youth vote there alone would flip them to Labour, but I have no faith it'll actually happen as per YouGov's predictions.

Both the seats I can vote in are safe Conservative and it kills me.

Milton Keynes does not have an east and west constituency but a MK North and MK South. Where is this electoral map you speak of?

There was a ~10k Tory majority in MK North, where I live, last go around.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
A strong and stable "NO DEAL!" is better than a weak and unstable bad deal ;)

If we keep having elections, we can't possibly get a deal, therefore we can't possibly get a bad deal.

Checkmate, Tories.
 
For those saying there is a chance they would have another election later in the year, what exactly would cause that?

Best case scenario if that happens is surely Labour continue to grow their vote share and Corbyns popularity (they can't get rid of him surely) to win it that time. Unless I'm mistaken of course.
 

Empty

Member
in 2015 the polls being wrong when everyone assumed they were right because they all herded together really hurt labour, it allowed the tories to hit hard on the sturgeon controlling miliband thing, squeeze the lib dems in lib dem/tory marginals and meant no scrutiny of the tax credits and disability cuts in the tory manifesto as everyone thought it was just a first draft before coalition negotiations.

but this time what if the (more labour favourable) polls are right this time but everyone just assumes they are wrong and favouring labour again. i think if people knew we could get a hung parliament and another election and screw over article 50 process for another six months at least, they'd hold back on going with their heart and voting labour. but if everyone just assumes the polls are wrong again then the coalition of chaos stuff has no credibility and there won't be any scrutiny on whether a deeply divided labour party can actually govern, instead people will vote to give may a bloody nose and reward corbyn for offering hope.
 

Snowman

Member
YouGov's statistical model updated for the day.

CON: 42% (nc)
LAB: 38% (nc)
LIB: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (nc)

For seats, that's:

Con: 308
Lab: 261
Lib: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 47
PC: 2
Speaker: 1
Independent: 1 (Claire Wright)

EDIT: Whoops, slow to the party. If this happened, almost definitely another election later this year, though.

Any thoughts on how that election would turn out? My gut feeling is that another election would increase disinterestedness and so conservatives would get a majority but that's a wild guess.
 
Milton Keynes does not have an east and west constituency but a MK North and MK South. Where is this electoral map you speak of?

There was a ~10k Tory majority in MK North, where I live, last go around.

Sorry, got my directions mixed up there. The YouGov polling puts Conservatives at a small margin ahead, just theorising that a very strong youth turnout would topple that.
 
Any thoughts on how that election would turn out? My gut feeling is that another election would increase disinterestedness and so conservatives would get a majority but that's a wild guess.

Dunno if you could call it at this point. Like from the last two months we've gone from certain increased Conservative majority to a faintly possible Labour EDIT: Plurality (thx Crab). Things are pretty nuts right now.
 

CCS

Banned
The most anecdotal of a anecdotal evidence, but quite a lot of older Tory voters saying they're going Labour/Lib Dem on Any Answers on Radio 4.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Dunno if you could call it at this point. Like from the last two months we've gone from certain increased Conservative majority to a faintly possible Labour majority. Things are pretty nuts right now.

No model or pollster is predicting a Labour majority. Not happening.
 
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